Maybe related: Polish premier calls urgent meeting of national security committee https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-premier-calls-urgent-meeting-national-security-committee-2022-11-15/
I think the hyperbole is not warranted. For one, the starting point would be Article 4, not Article 5 for this kind of incident. Secondly, a missile misfire (or interception by Ukraine) doesn't...
I think the hyperbole is not warranted.
For one, the starting point would be Article 4, not Article 5 for this kind of incident.
Secondly, a missile misfire (or interception by Ukraine) doesn't require a military escalation. We don't really know what happened yet and to me the situation appears accidental.
Oh I highly doubt it will be ignored. That's different than suggesting Armageddon. There's lots we don't know. The videos I've seen look like the impact site is in the middle of a field. I think...
Oh I highly doubt it will be ignored. That's different than suggesting Armageddon.
There's lots we don't know. The videos I've seen look like the impact site is in the middle of a field. I think it's unlikely that was the intended target, especially since Russia is running low on standoff weapons.
Even if it turns out to be an intentional targeting of Poland, Article 5 won't be invoked for a small missile strike with minimal casualties. It wasn't invoked when a Turkish fighter was shot down by Syria, nor was it invoked when Turkish cities were shelled by Syria. Article 4 would be invoked, and some sort of response would be formed, which would most likely be non-military (contingent on no further escalations).
I think we need more information before we can ascertain it's even a diplomatic crisis at all. Even if it is an attack, why do you think that's the expected result? There are plenty of...
I think we need more information before we can ascertain it's even a diplomatic crisis at all.
The suggestion is that a non response, which is the expected result, will make NATO seem weak.
Even if it is an attack, why do you think that's the expected result? There are plenty of non-military responses on the table that would track with the previous actions of the alliance for an incident of this size without undermining the alliance.
Groups agitating for war within the NATO sphere have been waiting for any excuse to escalate, and now idiot Russia has made their dreams come true. How far will they push it, I wonder? These are...
Groups agitating for war within the NATO sphere have been waiting for any excuse to escalate, and now idiot Russia has made their dreams come true. How far will they push it, I wonder? These are the kinds of fuckups that give NATO members all the justification they need to park more hardware, more manpower, and more bombs all along Russia's border. I sense a lot more aid in Ukraine's future...
Is destroying the remains of the Black Sea fleet going too far? Maybe just one? Edit: or if it was Ukrainian, I guess NATO will have to 'invade'. Edit again: ...Well, I guess no march on the Black...
Is destroying the remains of the Black Sea fleet going too far? Maybe just one?
Edit: or if it was Ukrainian, I guess NATO will have to 'invade'.
Edit again: ...Well, I guess no march on the Black Gate today...
President Joe Biden said Wednesday it was “unlikely” that a missile that killed two in NATO-ally Poland was fired from Russia, but he pledged support for Poland’s investigation into what it had called a “Russian-made” missile.
Biden spoke after he convened an “emergency” meeting of the Group of Seven and NATO leaders in Indonesia Wednesday morning for consultations on the attack that killed two people in the eastern part of Poland near the Ukraine border.
“There is preliminary information that contests that,” Biden told reporters when asked if the missile had been fired from Russia. “It is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we’ll see.”
It was not immediately clear whether Biden was suggesting that the missile hadn’t been fired by Russia at all. Ukraine still maintains stocks of former Soviet and Russian-made weaponry, including the S-300 air-defense missile system.
The Associated Press has fired a reporter and is reviewing its standards on use of anonymous sourcing following an “egregious” error in a story about a fatal missile strike that killed two people in Poland.
The national security reporter, James LaPorta, was dismissed after being deemed primarily responsible for a Nov. 15 news bulletin that erroneously said Russian missiles had carried out the strike, according to people at the AP familiar with the decision. They asked for anonymity to talk about personnel matters and internal operations.
On the question of whether or not it was accidental, it was a pretty remarkable coincidence to have happened on the same day as this: Poland takes over Gazprom’s Polish assets...
Maybe related:
Polish premier calls urgent meeting of national security committee
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-premier-calls-urgent-meeting-national-security-committee-2022-11-15/
Article 5 doesn't require war or even armed response, just "action as it deems necessary [...] to restore and maintain security.
I think the hyperbole is not warranted.
For one, the starting point would be Article 4, not Article 5 for this kind of incident.
Secondly, a missile misfire (or interception by Ukraine) doesn't require a military escalation. We don't really know what happened yet and to me the situation appears accidental.
Oh I highly doubt it will be ignored. That's different than suggesting Armageddon.
There's lots we don't know. The videos I've seen look like the impact site is in the middle of a field. I think it's unlikely that was the intended target, especially since Russia is running low on standoff weapons.
Even if it turns out to be an intentional targeting of Poland, Article 5 won't be invoked for a small missile strike with minimal casualties. It wasn't invoked when a Turkish fighter was shot down by Syria, nor was it invoked when Turkish cities were shelled by Syria. Article 4 would be invoked, and some sort of response would be formed, which would most likely be non-military (contingent on no further escalations).
I think we need more information before we can ascertain it's even a diplomatic crisis at all.
Even if it is an attack, why do you think that's the expected result? There are plenty of non-military responses on the table that would track with the previous actions of the alliance for an incident of this size without undermining the alliance.
Groups agitating for war within the NATO sphere have been waiting for any excuse to escalate, and now idiot Russia has made their dreams come true. How far will they push it, I wonder? These are the kinds of fuckups that give NATO members all the justification they need to park more hardware, more manpower, and more bombs all along Russia's border. I sense a lot more aid in Ukraine's future...
Is destroying the remains of the Black Sea fleet going too far? Maybe just one?
Edit: or if it was Ukrainian, I guess NATO will have to 'invade'.
Edit again: ...Well, I guess no march on the Black Gate today...
The noted OSINT account UAWeapons seems to think it’s likely a Ukrainian S-300 anti-air missile that crashed into Poland.
Related AP article updated a few minutes ago:
Biden ‘unlikely’ missile that hit Poland fired from Russia (AP)
NATO head Jens Stoltenberg holds news conference
REUTERS: Biden said Ukraine air defence missile responsible for Poland blast - NATO source
AP fires reporter, reviews sourcing rules after Poland error
AP – David Bauder – 22nd November 2022
So we going with unintentional (Ukrainian border is 15 miles away) or intentional (test of NATO Article 5)?
My guess is unintentional, there’s a thermal power plant less than 50 km away from the town.
On the question of whether or not it was accidental, it was a pretty remarkable coincidence to have happened on the same day as this:
Poland takes over Gazprom’s Polish assets
https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/11/15/poland-takes-over-gazproms-polish-assets/