31 votes

Poland: Russian-made missile fell on our country, killing two

19 comments

  1. [10]
    Loire
    Link
    Pardon my hyperbole but this may be the greatest diplomatic crisis since the second world war. There is no provision in Article 5 for "Oopsies". This is a direct attack on a NATO member,...

    Pardon my hyperbole but this may be the greatest diplomatic crisis since the second world war. There is no provision in Article 5 for "Oopsies". This is a direct attack on a NATO member, intentional or not, that has resulted in civilian deaths.

    NATO cannot enact Article 5 without risking a nuclear exchange.

    NATO cannot let this attack pass without response without completely undermining the alliance.

    There is no good answer to this attack. The entire alliance got bogged down in Afghanistan over 9/11, if they don't respond now, to the type of event NATO was explicitly designed for, then it invalidates the entire purpose of NATO.

    9 votes
    1. AugustusFerdinand
      Link Parent
      Article 5 doesn't require war or even armed response, just "action as it deems necessary [...] to restore and maintain security.

      NATO cannot enact Article 5 without risking a nuclear exchange.

      Article 5 doesn't require war or even armed response, just "action as it deems necessary [...] to restore and maintain security.

      22 votes
    2. [6]
      streblo
      Link Parent
      I think the hyperbole is not warranted. For one, the starting point would be Article 4, not Article 5 for this kind of incident. Secondly, a missile misfire (or interception by Ukraine) doesn't...

      I think the hyperbole is not warranted.

      For one, the starting point would be Article 4, not Article 5 for this kind of incident.

      Secondly, a missile misfire (or interception by Ukraine) doesn't require a military escalation. We don't really know what happened yet and to me the situation appears accidental.

      6 votes
      1. [5]
        Loire
        Link Parent
        With all due respect it seems far too optimistic to write off multiple missile strikes across the border with a civilian death toll as an (semi-)ignorable accident. Russia has a long history of...

        With all due respect it seems far too optimistic to write off multiple missile strikes across the border with a civilian death toll as an (semi-)ignorable accident.

        Russia has a long history of pushing boundaries like this. At some point it becomes clear NATO countries refuse to retaliate, rendering the alliance defunct.

        3 votes
        1. [4]
          streblo
          Link Parent
          Oh I highly doubt it will be ignored. That's different than suggesting Armageddon. There's lots we don't know. The videos I've seen look like the impact site is in the middle of a field. I think...

          Oh I highly doubt it will be ignored. That's different than suggesting Armageddon.

          There's lots we don't know. The videos I've seen look like the impact site is in the middle of a field. I think it's unlikely that was the intended target, especially since Russia is running low on standoff weapons.

          Even if it turns out to be an intentional targeting of Poland, Article 5 won't be invoked for a small missile strike with minimal casualties. It wasn't invoked when a Turkish fighter was shot down by Syria, nor was it invoked when Turkish cities were shelled by Syria. Article 4 would be invoked, and some sort of response would be formed, which would most likely be non-military (contingent on no further escalations).

          8 votes
          1. [3]
            Loire
            Link Parent
            I never suggested Armageddon was incoming. I suggested this is a diplomatic crisis for the alliance. The suggestion is that a non response, which is the expected result, will make NATO seem weak.

            I never suggested Armageddon was incoming. I suggested this is a diplomatic crisis for the alliance.

            The suggestion is that a non response, which is the expected result, will make NATO seem weak.

            3 votes
            1. [2]
              streblo
              Link Parent
              I think we need more information before we can ascertain it's even a diplomatic crisis at all. Even if it is an attack, why do you think that's the expected result? There are plenty of...

              I think we need more information before we can ascertain it's even a diplomatic crisis at all.

              The suggestion is that a non response, which is the expected result, will make NATO seem weak.

              Even if it is an attack, why do you think that's the expected result? There are plenty of non-military responses on the table that would track with the previous actions of the alliance for an incident of this size without undermining the alliance.

              6 votes
              1. Loire
                Link Parent
                And now we have more information it turns out that it was a Ukrainian missile. Situation defused I suppose.

                I think we need more information

                And now we have more information it turns out that it was a Ukrainian missile. Situation defused I suppose.

                8 votes
    3. Amarok
      Link Parent
      Groups agitating for war within the NATO sphere have been waiting for any excuse to escalate, and now idiot Russia has made their dreams come true. How far will they push it, I wonder? These are...

      Groups agitating for war within the NATO sphere have been waiting for any excuse to escalate, and now idiot Russia has made their dreams come true. How far will they push it, I wonder? These are the kinds of fuckups that give NATO members all the justification they need to park more hardware, more manpower, and more bombs all along Russia's border. I sense a lot more aid in Ukraine's future...

      4 votes
    4. FishFingus
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      Is destroying the remains of the Black Sea fleet going too far? Maybe just one? Edit: or if it was Ukrainian, I guess NATO will have to 'invade'. Edit again: ...Well, I guess no march on the Black...

      Is destroying the remains of the Black Sea fleet going too far? Maybe just one?

      Edit: or if it was Ukrainian, I guess NATO will have to 'invade'.

      Edit again: ...Well, I guess no march on the Black Gate today...

      1 vote
  2. [3]
    streblo
    Link
    The noted OSINT account UAWeapons seems to think it’s likely a Ukrainian S-300 anti-air missile that crashed into Poland.

    The noted OSINT account UAWeapons seems to think it’s likely a Ukrainian S-300 anti-air missile that crashed into Poland.

    8 votes
    1. [2]
      cfabbro
      Link Parent
      Related AP article updated a few minutes ago: Biden ‘unlikely’ missile that hit Poland fired from Russia (AP)

      Related AP article updated a few minutes ago:
      Biden ‘unlikely’ missile that hit Poland fired from Russia (AP)

      President Joe Biden said Wednesday it was “unlikely” that a missile that killed two in NATO-ally Poland was fired from Russia, but he pledged support for Poland’s investigation into what it had called a “Russian-made” missile.

      Biden spoke after he convened an “emergency” meeting of the Group of Seven and NATO leaders in Indonesia Wednesday morning for consultations on the attack that killed two people in the eastern part of Poland near the Ukraine border.

      “There is preliminary information that contests that,” Biden told reporters when asked if the missile had been fired from Russia. “It is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we’ll see.”

      It was not immediately clear whether Biden was suggesting that the missile hadn’t been fired by Russia at all. Ukraine still maintains stocks of former Soviet and Russian-made weaponry, including the S-300 air-defense missile system.

      6 votes
  3. mycketforvirrad
    (edited )
    Link
    AP fires reporter, reviews sourcing rules after Poland error AP – David Bauder – 22nd November 2022

    AP fires reporter, reviews sourcing rules after Poland error

    The Associated Press has fired a reporter and is reviewing its standards on use of anonymous sourcing following an “egregious” error in a story about a fatal missile strike that killed two people in Poland.

    The national security reporter, James LaPorta, was dismissed after being deemed primarily responsible for a Nov. 15 news bulletin that erroneously said Russian missiles had carried out the strike, according to people at the AP familiar with the decision. They asked for anonymity to talk about personnel matters and internal operations.

    AP – David Bauder – 22nd November 2022

    6 votes
  4. [2]
    AugustusFerdinand
    Link
    So we going with unintentional (Ukrainian border is 15 miles away) or intentional (test of NATO Article 5)?

    So we going with unintentional (Ukrainian border is 15 miles away) or intentional (test of NATO Article 5)?

    4 votes
    1. nukeman
      Link Parent
      My guess is unintentional, there’s a thermal power plant less than 50 km away from the town.

      My guess is unintentional, there’s a thermal power plant less than 50 km away from the town.

      3 votes
  5. cmccabe
    Link
    On the question of whether or not it was accidental, it was a pretty remarkable coincidence to have happened on the same day as this: Poland takes over Gazprom’s Polish assets...

    On the question of whether or not it was accidental, it was a pretty remarkable coincidence to have happened on the same day as this:
    Poland takes over Gazprom’s Polish assets
    https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/11/15/poland-takes-over-gazproms-polish-assets/

    4 votes