29 votes

Weekly megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - July 13

Automatically posted
Tags: russia, ukraine, military conflict, war, geopolitics, 2022 russian invasion of ukraine, recurring.weekly

This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.

22 comments

  1. unkz
    Link
    Wagner-linked senior general Sergei Surovikin 'resting' https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66183656 All these pieces really remind me of the speculation about various North Korean officials....

    Wagner-linked senior general Sergei Surovikin 'resting'

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66183656

    All these pieces really remind me of the speculation about various North Korean officials. Are they dead? Arrested? In a reeducation camp?

    10 votes
  2. [9]
    Fal
    Link
    Opinion: Cluster bombs are terrible. Ukraine still needs them. - Foreign Policy Archive

    Opinion: Cluster bombs are terrible. Ukraine still needs them. - Foreign Policy

    Archive

    6 votes
    1. [7]
      unkz
      Link Parent
      This may be an unpopular opinion, but I don’t oppose the use of any weapons whatsoever when used in the defense against a war of aggression.

      This may be an unpopular opinion, but I don’t oppose the use of any weapons whatsoever when used in the defense against a war of aggression.

      10 votes
      1. [6]
        MimicSquid
        Link Parent
        The problem with cluster munitions is that they're then a pain to clean up after the fact. It's not that they're necessarily wrong to use, but that they have additional costs when trying to clean...

        The problem with cluster munitions is that they're then a pain to clean up after the fact. It's not that they're necessarily wrong to use, but that they have additional costs when trying to clean up Ukrainian territory after the war.

        8 votes
        1. [3]
          unkz
          Link Parent
          However, that’s Ukraine’s decision to make on their own territory. It shouldn’t be a decision made for them.

          However, that’s Ukraine’s decision to make on their own territory. It shouldn’t be a decision made for them.

          10 votes
          1. ku-fan
            Link Parent
            This is a huge distinction here. They're not using them on someone else's soil. They are actively deciding to use it on their own soil.

            This is a huge distinction here. They're not using them on someone else's soil. They are actively deciding to use it on their own soil.

            8 votes
          2. MimicSquid
            Link Parent
            Yeah, absolutely. I'm not saying we should deny them, just that there's a hard calculus to the decision.

            Yeah, absolutely. I'm not saying we should deny them, just that there's a hard calculus to the decision.

            3 votes
        2. [2]
          EgoEimi
          Link Parent
          Cluster Weapons U.S. Is Sending Ukraine Often Fail to Detonate The NYT article (gift linked) sheds some light on failure rates and the technical details thereof. It's not clear how much of the...

          Cluster Weapons U.S. Is Sending Ukraine Often Fail to Detonate

          The Pentagon said the weapons they would send to Ukraine had a failure rate of 2.35 percent or less, far better than the usual rate that is common for cluster weapons.

          But the Pentagon’s own statements indicate that the cluster munitions in question contain older grenades known to have a failure rate of 14 percent or more.

          Analysts say that as many as 40 percent of the bomblets from Russia’s cluster munitions have resulted in duds.

          The NYT article (gift linked) sheds some light on failure rates and the technical details thereof. It's not clear how much of the cluster bomb stock sent to Ukraine will be modern (and have a sub-2.35 percent failure rate) and how much will be dated.

          There is moral cost to using cluster bombs, even if Ukraine and Russia are already using them. Years from now, innocent civilians will be killed and maimed. US international standing will be damaged.

          But there is also moral cost to not using them: Ukrainian soldiers will attack Russian positions that could have been otherwise weakened with American cluster bombs, resulting in greater casualties.

          It is hard to envy the person who has to decide on the moral calculus.

          7 votes
          1. unkz
            Link Parent
            I entirely disagree that American international standing will be harmed. Ukrainian forces want these weapons, and they will result in lower net losses of Ukrainian lives, which in this conflict...

            I entirely disagree that American international standing will be harmed. Ukrainian forces want these weapons, and they will result in lower net losses of Ukrainian lives, which in this conflict are the only lives with any value.

            8 votes
    2. reverse_sausage
      Link Parent
      On the topic of cluster munitions, here's a fresh video from Perun on the topic Cluster Munitions & Artillery in Ukraine - Attrition, Ammunition & Adaptation in 2023 He specialized in defence...

      On the topic of cluster munitions, here's a fresh video from Perun on the topic
      Cluster Munitions & Artillery in Ukraine - Attrition, Ammunition & Adaptation in 2023

      He specialized in defence economics and does regular, informative videos on the logistics of the war.

      7 votes
  3. [3]
    skybrian
    Link
    Two killed as vital bridge linking Crimea with Russia damaged (CNN) ... ... ...

    Two killed as vital bridge linking Crimea with Russia damaged (CNN)

    The Crimean Bridge, the only link between the annexed peninsula and Russia, has suffered damage to its spans, Russia’s Transport Ministry said Monday as multiple Telegram channels reported strikes on the bridge and a local official confirmed at least two deaths.

    “There is damage to the roadway on spans of the Crimean Bridge,” the Transport Ministry said on Telegram.

    ...

    Images showed a partial collapse of a section of the roadway portion of the bridge, which also carries railroad tracks.

    On his Telegram channel, Vladimir Konstantinov, head of the State Council of the Republic of Crimea, blamed the damage to the bridge on a Ukrainian attack.

    ...

    As with previous alleged attacks in Crimea, the Ukrainian government has been opaque in its messaging. But the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) hinted that the Ukrainian government was responsible.

    ...

    The nearly 12-mile bridge, also known as the Kerch Bridge, is the longest in Europe and carries both road and rail traffic.

    The bridge was severely damaged on October 8 when a fuel tanker exploded and destroyed a large section of the road.

    6 votes
    2. cmccabe
      Link Parent
      There are a couple megathreads covering this topic on Reddit (1 and 2) for anyone interested.

      There are a couple megathreads covering this topic on Reddit (1 and 2) for anyone interested.

      2 votes
  4. [4]
    smoontjes
    Link
    Anders Puck Nielsen on recent events

    Anders Puck Nielsen on recent events

    4 votes
    1. [3]
      MimicSquid
      Link Parent
      Especially with regards to videos, would you mind giving a tiny bit of information regarding what the event is and what his take is? It doesn't have to fully summarize the video, but "on recent...

      Especially with regards to videos, would you mind giving a tiny bit of information regarding what the event is and what his take is? It doesn't have to fully summarize the video, but "on recent events" is pretty free of any information unless someone is already deeply tied into what the events of the week are.

      11 votes
      1. [2]
        smoontjes
        Link Parent
        Sorry yes I will do that in future! He discusses are Ukrainian gains, in which they have gained several square kilometers in a few different areas along the front - for example how they have...

        Sorry yes I will do that in future!

        He discusses are Ukrainian gains, in which they have gained several square kilometers in a few different areas along the front - for example how they have gained slight amounts of territory back around Bakhmut, to the north and south, bot near the town itself, but maybe this will become a pincer movement. He also shows that Ukraine have begun prodding at Russian defenses near Kherson, using the destroyed bridge for cover. It has been a few days since I watched it so I can't remember much else at the moment sorry.

        7 votes
        1. MimicSquid
          Link Parent
          Awesome! I'll have to watch the video.

          Awesome! I'll have to watch the video.

          2 votes
  7. skybrian
    Link
    Russia suspends Ukraine grain deal (NPR) … …

    Russia suspends Ukraine grain deal (NPR)

    Russia is refusing to extend a U.N.-backed deal that has allowed Ukraine to export grain and other food items during the ongoing invasion.

    Known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the agreement reached last July allowed for international shipments of corn, wheat, barley and other food products from three designated ports in Ukraine, which has been nicknamed the "breadbasket of Europe."

    …

    Moscow has been unhappy with the deal since its inception, saying that it failed to deliver on a promise to free up Russian agricultural exports that have been blocked by Western sanctions. While food and fertilizers are not under sanctions, Russia says sanctions-related restrictions on its banking, transit and insurance make trade untenable.

    The U.N.'s Guterres pushed back against those claims in a press conference Monday, saying Russia's grain trade had "reached high export volumes" and its fertilizer markets were "stabilizing" under policies laid out in a memorandum of understanding between the U.N. and Russia last July.

    …

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that his country was prepared to continue operating under the initiative with the support of Turkey and the U.N., according to excerpts from an interview transcript shared by his press secretary Monday.

    "Even without Russia, we need to do everything to ensure that we can use this Black Sea corridor. We are not afraid," Zelenskyy said, adding that his government had been approached by companies that own container ships with an interest in continuing exports.

    Without Russia's support, those ships are not be guaranteed safe passage through the Black Sea.

    3 votes
  9. skybrian
    Link
    Kyiv says Russia attacks grain infrastructure with strikes on Ukraine's Odesa ports (Reuters) …

    Kyiv says Russia attacks grain infrastructure with strikes on Ukraine's Odesa ports (Reuters)

    Ukraine accused Russia on Wednesday of damaging grain export infrastructure in "hellish" overnight strikes focused on two of its Black Sea ports, vowing not to be intimidated from working to keep grain exports moving out of them.

    Russia attacked the Odesa region for the second consecutive night after quitting a year-old deal allowing the safe passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea on Monday. Ukraine said it was setting up a temporary shipping route to Romania.

    …

    Russia on Wednesday said it would consider all ships travelling to Ukraine's Black Sea ports as potential carriers of military cargoes from midnight on Thursday morning Moscow time (2100 GMT on Wednesday), following the end of the grain deal.

    Russia's Defence Ministry said flag states of ships travelling to Ukrainian ports would be considered parties to the conflict on the Ukrainian side.

    2 votes