81 votes

Former US President Donald Trump faces possible indictment in Jan 6th investigation

30 comments

  1. [22]
    CosmicDefect
    (edited )
    Link
    Basic gist is you do not want to be the recipient of a target letter from the US DOJ. The indictment is likely coming soon as it seems the grand jury has wrapped up its business and proceedings....

    The former president said he received a target letter in connection with the criminal investigation into the events leading up to the storming of the Capitol. It is a sign he could be indicted again by the special counsel.

    Basic gist is you do not want to be the recipient of a target letter from the US DOJ. The indictment is likely coming soon as it seems the grand jury has wrapped up its business and proceedings. This would be the former president's third indictment and second from the federal government. I thought this news was big enough to earn its own thread.

    Interesting thing is that it seems like Trump might be alone in this target letter as none of the many Jan 6th players got a letter as well, but also a good number of them have sung like canaries and may have immunity on the matter. If I were to make a hot take, I think the more bombshell part of the forthcoming indictment is not Trump's involvement in inciting the riot, but the fake elector scheme to falsify the vote supposed to occur that day. I suspect the DOJ is bundling the two schemes (riot/unrest and fake electors) to show this wasn't a spur of the moment or spontaneous event, but a coordinated planned one.

    64 votes
    1. [2]
      public
      Link Parent
      This is one of the drums that my favorite political podcast, Congressional Dish, never stops beating. The Jan 6 riot is small potatoes compared to the fake elector schemes and the calls to the...

      the fake elector scheme to falsify the vote supposed to occur that day

      This is one of the drums that my favorite political podcast, Congressional Dish, never stops beating. The Jan 6 riot is small potatoes compared to the fake elector schemes and the calls to the Georgia AG asking to find exactly 71,000 more Trump votes.

      26 votes
    2. [4]
      AzecTheButcher
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      We will have to debate if it's big enough news. This seems to be a regular thing for the former president. Jokes aside, it's a big deal. I have no doubt in my mind he pushed for that day to go the...

      We will have to debate if it's big enough news. This seems to be a regular thing for the former president.

      Jokes aside, it's a big deal. I have no doubt in my mind he pushed for that day to go the way it did and hoped for a different outcome.

      Edit: typo

      22 votes
      1. CosmicDefect
        Link Parent
        I think the Georgia investigation is the other big investigation to keep an eye out for, though I've heard on the grapevine that it won't conclude until later in the fall.

        I think the Georgia investigation is the other big investigation to keep an eye out for, though I've heard on the grapevine that it won't conclude until later in the fall.

        13 votes
    3. [2]
      ncallaway
      Link Parent
      I think it’s definitely going to be a broader indictment that covers the fake elector scheme. I imagine more weight will be given to that than to the riot. Honestly, the 1A jurisprudence on...

      I think it’s definitely going to be a broader indictment that covers the fake elector scheme. I imagine more weight will be given to that than to the riot.

      Honestly, the 1A jurisprudence on inciting a riot makes that… very hard to prove. I think Trump crossed even that line on Jan 6, but it’s… it’s such a high bar that his behavior barely crosses it.

      However, I think conspiracy and obstruction of justice charges related to the fake elector scheme are very likely to be strong if Jack Smith has solid documentary evidence.

      I’m very much looking forward to reading the indictment.

      10 votes
      1. CosmicDefect
        Link Parent
        I think, and I am NOT a legal expert by any means, the riot in vacuum doesn't harm Trump because of 1A protection as you point out which are very strong. But in the context of the other efforts to...

        I think, and I am NOT a legal expert by any means, the riot in vacuum doesn't harm Trump because of 1A protection as you point out which are very strong. But in the context of the other efforts to overturn the election in conjunction with the planned efforts to cause some kind of disruption or unrest prior to Jan 6th makes it far more legally threatening to him.

        It's the difference between "things just got out of hand, I was just speaking passionately in the moment" and "we wanted this to happen and actively sought it." I think that communications that occurred prior to Jan 6th between Trump and his allies actually might make Trump's speech unprotected here.

        9 votes
    4. [13]
      hachyderm
      Link Parent
      Now this will be a speaking indictment I can't wait to read.

      Now this will be a speaking indictment I can't wait to read.

      3 votes
      1. [12]
        CosmicDefect
        Link Parent
        The documents case indictment was devastating, I am very interested to see if this case turns out to be as ironclad.

        The documents case indictment was devastating, I am very interested to see if this case turns out to be as ironclad.

        5 votes
        1. [11]
          superphly
          Link Parent
          Haven't the dems called everything they've thrown at Trump "bombshell" and "devastating"? I mean, every single headline from both sides use the term "bombshell" for effect. At this point it's...

          Haven't the dems called everything they've thrown at Trump "bombshell" and "devastating"? I mean, every single headline from both sides use the term "bombshell" for effect. At this point it's every email is marked priority, so nothing is.

          7 votes
          1. [2]
            babypuncher
            Link Parent
            If a former President being indicted for anything isn't worthy of the "bombshell" designation, then nothing is. This is not a remotely common occurrence in US history.

            If a former President being indicted for anything isn't worthy of the "bombshell" designation, then nothing is. This is not a remotely common occurrence in US history.

            33 votes
            1. Grayscail
              Link Parent
              I think there's a distinction between bombshell and devastating. One is more talking about the popular discourse, one sounds more like it's talking about the impact. As someone not really familiar...

              I think there's a distinction between bombshell and devastating.

              One is more talking about the popular discourse, one sounds more like it's talking about the impact.

              As someone not really familiar with law, Trump has been indicted already and supposedly did some stuff that seems a lot like treason, and is still out just doing his thing. So to a layman it seems like the first two bombshells didn't really matter as much as I'd have thought.

              If he ever goes to jail, I'll think whatever caused that to happen was devastating.

              1 vote
          2. [5]
            ncallaway
            Link Parent
            I read the indictment. I encourage you to read it. It’s an easy read. https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2023/06/trump-indictment.pdf It’s… I can’t think of another word other than...

            I read the indictment. I encourage you to read it. It’s an easy read.

            https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2023/06/trump-indictment.pdf

            It’s… I can’t think of another word other than devastating, and I haven’t listened to a legal commentator that’s said anything different.

            25 votes
            1. anadem
              (edited )
              Link Parent
              Thank you for the link! Wow!!! You're right: it's devastating, definitely a bombshell. I hope we see 'TRUMP' convicted and jailed (and hope that his sycophants recognize his crimes.) Edit to add...

              Thank you for the link! Wow!!!
              You're right: it's devastating, definitely a bombshell. I hope we see 'TRUMP' convicted and jailed (and hope that his sycophants recognize his crimes.)
              Edit to add that the more I read of the indictment, the crazier Trump seems. Please let him go behind bars.

              1 vote
            2. [3]
              superphly
              Link Parent
              With all due respect, every single report that has come out, someone that hates Trump tells me "oh, no, this is bad, this is really really bad, I mean, this... this is the time they are finally...

              With all due respect, every single report that has come out, someone that hates Trump tells me "oh, no, this is bad, this is really really bad, I mean, this... this is the time they are finally going to get him" and then ultimately it turns into a dismissed case or we later find out the info was fabricated. How many times is "this time" going to happen?

              1. ncallaway
                Link Parent
                Which specific cases are you referring to? The cases I am/were tracking are: Trump campaign lawsuit to prevent various states from certifying their election results (Trump lost at every level,...

                ultimately it turns into a dismissed case

                Which specific cases are you referring to?

                The cases I am/were tracking are:

                • Trump campaign lawsuit to prevent various states from certifying their election results (Trump lost at every level, including the SCOTUS)
                • Trump lawsuit against Hillary Clinton, DNC Peter Strozk, many others (Trump’s lawsuit was dismissed as frivolous, his lawyers were fined nearly $1M for bringing the case; Trump is appealing)
                • Trump lawsuit in Florida against NY AG Leticia James (Trump dropped the lawsuit 1 day after his lawyers were fined in the other case)
                • Trump “lawsuit” against GA AG filed directly with GA Supreme Court (GA Supreme Court unanimous rejected Trump’s arguments)
                • Trump defamation lawsuit against CNN (unresolved)
                • Trump “lawsuit” against DOJ to prevent them from accessing the documents in the documents case (Trump’s arguments met some success with the district court, but we’re soundly rejected by the 11th circuit)
                • NY criminal tax case against Trump Organization (guilty, Trump Organization to be dissolved)
                • Summer Zervos defamation case (lawsuit dropped)
                • Rep Swalwell’s incitement civil suit (not resolved, survived MTD)
                • Capitol Police Jan 6 civil suit (not resolved, survived MTD)
                • NY civil suit against Trump and children (not resolved)
                  Mary Trump fraud suit (case dismissed, appeal filed)
                • E Jean Carol defamation case I (not resolved)
                • E Jean Carol defamation case II (resolved, Trump was liable for defamation and sexual abuse)
                • NY Trump Indictment (not resolved)
                • Federal documents indictment (not resolved)
                • Federal false electors scheme (not indicted, though indictment expected imminently)
                • GA Voting Case (not indicted)

                Looking at these, it certainly doesn’t look like unambiguous wins for Trump.

                Honestly, it seems surprising that you could brush off a $5M civil suit result for sexual abuse as nothing. Or the criminal conviction of his organization. Or multiple criminal indictments.

                Which lawsuits have I missed that you were following?

                2 votes
              2. CosmicDefect
                Link Parent
                Well, he's been arrested twice, and those situations are still ongoing otherwise. All else is noise unless he's in a courtroom because of it.

                Well, he's been arrested twice, and those situations are still ongoing otherwise.

                All else is noise unless he's in a courtroom because of it.

                1 vote
          3. [2]
            CosmicDefect
            Link Parent
            Certainly we are all susceptible to "the boy who cried wolf" syndrome, and those words are themselves far overused as you point out, but if it actually contributes to the former president being...

            Certainly we are all susceptible to "the boy who cried wolf" syndrome, and those words are themselves far overused as you point out, but if it actually contributes to the former president being arrested, I think it deservedly should be labeled as such having risen above the noise.

            It's also hard to combat general fatigue with a figure like Trump due to his incredible polarization and many bad behaviors. My liberal friends saw this headline and told me "what's different about this one, I've seen headlines like this for years" so it's important to point out when something is actually moving the needle and resist becoming desensitized.

            11 votes
            1. superphly
              Link Parent
              There's a name for this situation... it's happening to AMLO right now in Mexico as he attacks Xóchitl Gálvez. Every time he attacks her, she gets stronger. Sort of a Barbara Streisand Effect.

              There's a name for this situation... it's happening to AMLO right now in Mexico as he attacks Xóchitl Gálvez. Every time he attacks her, she gets stronger. Sort of a Barbara Streisand Effect.

          4. ku-fan
            Link Parent
            Personally I'm tired of all the sensational headlines where everyone slams someone else.

            Personally I'm tired of all the sensational headlines where everyone slams someone else.

            3 votes
  2. [4]
    CosmicDefect
    Link
    I wasn't sure to put this in the weekly thread, or here since it's related, but something came out that surprised me and connects to the false elector scheme: Michigan Charges 16 in False Elector...

    I wasn't sure to put this in the weekly thread, or here since it's related, but something came out that surprised me and connects to the false elector scheme:

    Michigan Charges 16 in False Elector Scheme to Overturn Trump’s 2020 Loss

    The Michigan attorney general announced felony charges on Tuesday against 16 people in a case involving Trump supporters’ attempt to overturn the state’s 2020 election results by convening a false slate of Electoral College electors.

    Each of the 16 defendants has been charged with eight felony counts, including forgery and conspiracy to commit forgery, for allegedly signing documents attesting falsely that they were Michigan’s “duly elected and qualified electors” for president and vice president.

    “They weren’t the duly elected and qualified electors, and each of the defendants knew it,” Attorney General Dana Nessel, a Democrat, said in announcing the charges. “They carried out these actions with the hope and belief that the electoral votes of Michigan’s 2020 election would be awarded to the candidate of their choosing instead of the candidate that Michigan voters actually chose.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/18/us/politics/michigan-attorney-general-charges-false-electors.html

    26 votes
    1. [3]
      anadem
      Link Parent
      From reading elsewhere, iirc each of the eight felony counts charged carries a max penalty of 14 years. Quite a substantial affair.

      From reading elsewhere, iirc each of the eight felony counts charged carries a max penalty of 14 years. Quite a substantial affair.

      5 votes
      1. scherlock
        Link Parent
        Per CNN the youngest is 55 while the oldest is 82. Most are in their 60s and 70s. A conviction of even one count is likely a life sentence for most of them.

        Per CNN the youngest is 55 while the oldest is 82. Most are in their 60s and 70s. A conviction of even one count is likely a life sentence for most of them.

        3 votes
      2. CosmicDefect
        Link Parent
        Usually, these counts don't stack like this. For federal cases, the federal sentencing guidelines has instructions on how to group or modify convictions to arrive as a "wholistic" sentence to...

        Usually, these counts don't stack like this. For federal cases, the federal sentencing guidelines has instructions on how to group or modify convictions to arrive as a "wholistic" sentence to match the extent and scope of the crime. As a quick example: In the Trump documents case, each document resulted in a separate indictment charge, but if convicted, they'd probably group all those together as related items under the same overall crime.

        However, this is the state of Michigan doing the prosecuting, so I suspect it'd fall under however Michigan does sentencing for felonies.

        2 votes
  3. pedantzilla
    Link
    On a related note is Atrios' hot-take on the media coverage and the exceptional treatment Trump has always gotten from corporate media:

    On a related note is Atrios' hot-take on the media coverage and the exceptional treatment Trump has always gotten from corporate media:

    Trump will get indicted again and no matter what the charges that detail will be lost from ongoing coverage except when explicitly relevant. New stories can append ", indicted on dozens of felony charges," to every mention of his name, or they could not do that. It isn't normal to not do that. They won't do that.

    1 vote
  4. [3]
    JoshuaJ
    (edited )
    Link
    As fascinating as it is to hear about American legal apparatus and that they can send strongly worded letters, frankly after the Mueller report fever. Wake me up when someone finally grows the...

    As fascinating as it is to hear about American legal apparatus and that they can send strongly worded letters, frankly after the Mueller report fever.
    Wake me up when someone finally grows the backbone to throw this criminal in jail on an actual charge.

    Everything else regarding Trump is lacking substance.

    6 votes
    1. [2]
      mike_b_nimble
      Link Parent
      This isn’t a “strongly worded letter.” This is an official notification that he is very likely to be indicted soon and should start preparing to defend himself. Remember how for years everyone was...

      This isn’t a “strongly worded letter.” This is an official notification that he is very likely to be indicted soon and should start preparing to defend himself. Remember how for years everyone was like “wake me when he gets charged?” This is your wake up call. He has been and continues to be charged with crimes he committed in office.

      8 votes
      1. anadem
        Link Parent
        A slightly reassuring aspect of the Michigan charges, and the potential Georgia ones, is that they're State charges, so would not be susceptible to being abandoned should Trump somehow be elected...

        A slightly reassuring aspect of the Michigan charges, and the potential Georgia ones, is that they're State charges, so would not be susceptible to being abandoned should Trump somehow be elected President with power over the Federal justice system.

        3 votes