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Former US President Donald Trump faces possible indictment in Jan 6th investigation
Link information
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- Title
- January 6 Investigation: Trump Says He's a Target in Special Counsel's Capitol Attack Investigation
- Published
- Jul 18 2023
- Word count
- 231 words
Basic gist is you do not want to be the recipient of a target letter from the US DOJ. The indictment is likely coming soon as it seems the grand jury has wrapped up its business and proceedings. This would be the former president's third indictment and second from the federal government. I thought this news was big enough to earn its own thread.
Interesting thing is that it seems like Trump might be alone in this target letter as none of the many Jan 6th players got a letter as well, but also a good number of them have sung like canaries and may have immunity on the matter. If I were to make a hot take, I think the more bombshell part of the forthcoming indictment is not Trump's involvement in inciting the riot, but the fake elector scheme to falsify the vote supposed to occur that day. I suspect the DOJ is bundling the two schemes (riot/unrest and fake electors) to show this wasn't a spur of the moment or spontaneous event, but a coordinated planned one.
This is one of the drums that my favorite political podcast, Congressional Dish, never stops beating. The Jan 6 riot is small potatoes compared to the fake elector schemes and the calls to the Georgia AG asking to find exactly 71,000 more Trump votes.
I have some good news for you then: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/michigan-attorney-general-charges-false-electors-efforts-overturn-2020-rcna94838
Edit: I see now someone has already posted this further down, apologies
We will have to debate if it's big enough news. This seems to be a regular thing for the former president.
Jokes aside, it's a big deal. I have no doubt in my mind he pushed for that day to go the way it did and hoped for a different outcome.
Edit: typo
I think the Georgia investigation is the other big investigation to keep an eye out for, though I've heard on the grapevine that it won't conclude until later in the fall.
Corrected.
*Oops
I think it’s definitely going to be a broader indictment that covers the fake elector scheme. I imagine more weight will be given to that than to the riot.
Honestly, the 1A jurisprudence on inciting a riot makes that… very hard to prove. I think Trump crossed even that line on Jan 6, but it’s… it’s such a high bar that his behavior barely crosses it.
However, I think conspiracy and obstruction of justice charges related to the fake elector scheme are very likely to be strong if Jack Smith has solid documentary evidence.
I’m very much looking forward to reading the indictment.
I think, and I am NOT a legal expert by any means, the riot in vacuum doesn't harm Trump because of 1A protection as you point out which are very strong. But in the context of the other efforts to overturn the election in conjunction with the planned efforts to cause some kind of disruption or unrest prior to Jan 6th makes it far more legally threatening to him.
It's the difference between "things just got out of hand, I was just speaking passionately in the moment" and "we wanted this to happen and actively sought it." I think that communications that occurred prior to Jan 6th between Trump and his allies actually might make Trump's speech unprotected here.
Now this will be a speaking indictment I can't wait to read.
The documents case indictment was devastating, I am very interested to see if this case turns out to be as ironclad.
Haven't the dems called everything they've thrown at Trump "bombshell" and "devastating"? I mean, every single headline from both sides use the term "bombshell" for effect. At this point it's every email is marked priority, so nothing is.
If a former President being indicted for anything isn't worthy of the "bombshell" designation, then nothing is. This is not a remotely common occurrence in US history.
I think there's a distinction between bombshell and devastating.
One is more talking about the popular discourse, one sounds more like it's talking about the impact.
As someone not really familiar with law, Trump has been indicted already and supposedly did some stuff that seems a lot like treason, and is still out just doing his thing. So to a layman it seems like the first two bombshells didn't really matter as much as I'd have thought.
If he ever goes to jail, I'll think whatever caused that to happen was devastating.
I read the indictment. I encourage you to read it. It’s an easy read.
https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2023/06/trump-indictment.pdf
It’s… I can’t think of another word other than devastating, and I haven’t listened to a legal commentator that’s said anything different.
Thank you for the link! Wow!!!
You're right: it's devastating, definitely a bombshell. I hope we see 'TRUMP' convicted and jailed (and hope that his sycophants recognize his crimes.)
Edit to add that the more I read of the indictment, the crazier Trump seems. Please let him go behind bars.
With all due respect, every single report that has come out, someone that hates Trump tells me "oh, no, this is bad, this is really really bad, I mean, this... this is the time they are finally going to get him" and then ultimately it turns into a dismissed case or we later find out the info was fabricated. How many times is "this time" going to happen?
Which specific cases are you referring to?
The cases I am/were tracking are:
Mary Trump fraud suit (case dismissed, appeal filed)
Looking at these, it certainly doesn’t look like unambiguous wins for Trump.
Honestly, it seems surprising that you could brush off a $5M civil suit result for sexual abuse as nothing. Or the criminal conviction of his organization. Or multiple criminal indictments.
Which lawsuits have I missed that you were following?
Well, he's been arrested twice, and those situations are still ongoing otherwise.
All else is noise unless he's in a courtroom because of it.
Certainly we are all susceptible to "the boy who cried wolf" syndrome, and those words are themselves far overused as you point out, but if it actually contributes to the former president being arrested, I think it deservedly should be labeled as such having risen above the noise.
It's also hard to combat general fatigue with a figure like Trump due to his incredible polarization and many bad behaviors. My liberal friends saw this headline and told me "what's different about this one, I've seen headlines like this for years" so it's important to point out when something is actually moving the needle and resist becoming desensitized.
There's a name for this situation... it's happening to AMLO right now in Mexico as he attacks Xóchitl Gálvez. Every time he attacks her, she gets stronger. Sort of a Barbara Streisand Effect.
Personally I'm tired of all the sensational headlines where everyone slams someone else.
I wasn't sure to put this in the weekly thread, or here since it's related, but something came out that surprised me and connects to the false elector scheme:
Michigan Charges 16 in False Elector Scheme to Overturn Trump’s 2020 Loss
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/18/us/politics/michigan-attorney-general-charges-false-electors.html
From reading elsewhere, iirc each of the eight felony counts charged carries a max penalty of 14 years. Quite a substantial affair.
Per CNN the youngest is 55 while the oldest is 82. Most are in their 60s and 70s. A conviction of even one count is likely a life sentence for most of them.
Usually, these counts don't stack like this. For federal cases, the federal sentencing guidelines has instructions on how to group or modify convictions to arrive as a "wholistic" sentence to match the extent and scope of the crime. As a quick example: In the Trump documents case, each document resulted in a separate indictment charge, but if convicted, they'd probably group all those together as related items under the same overall crime.
However, this is the state of Michigan doing the prosecuting, so I suspect it'd fall under however Michigan does sentencing for felonies.
On a related note is Atrios' hot-take on the media coverage and the exceptional treatment Trump has always gotten from corporate media:
As fascinating as it is to hear about American legal apparatus and that they can send strongly worded letters, frankly after the Mueller report fever.
Wake me up when someone finally grows the backbone to throw this criminal in jail on an actual charge.
Everything else regarding Trump is lacking substance.
This isn’t a “strongly worded letter.” This is an official notification that he is very likely to be indicted soon and should start preparing to defend himself. Remember how for years everyone was like “wake me when he gets charged?” This is your wake up call. He has been and continues to be charged with crimes he committed in office.
A slightly reassuring aspect of the Michigan charges, and the potential Georgia ones, is that they're State charges, so would not be susceptible to being abandoned should Trump somehow be elected President with power over the Federal justice system.