Weekly Middle East war megathread - week of October 7

U.N. says Israeli forces battling Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon fire on UNIFIL peacekeepers, wounding two

"UNIFIL's Naqoura headquarters and nearby positions have been repeatedly hit. This morning, two peacekeepers were injured after an IDF [Israel Defense Forces] Merkava tank fired its weapon toward an observation tower at UNIFIL's headquarters in Naqoura, directly hitting it and causing them to fall," the UNIFIL mission said in a statement posted on social media. "The injuries are fortunately, this time, not serious, but they remain in hospital."

The UNIFIL mission has been deployed in southern Lebanon for more than 45 years, but tension between Israel and the peacekeeping force has increased as the IDF has stepped up its assault on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The U.N. force has been tasked since 1978 with ensuring security on the Lebanese side of the so-called Blue Line, the de-facto border established by U.N. resolutions to end a previous war between Israel and Hezbollah, when the IDF pulled out of Lebanon. Israeli officials have recently accused UNIFIL of failing in its mission, allowing Hezbollah to entrench for decades along the border. [...]

A standoff between UNIFIL and Israel has been playing out for weeks, since the IDF sent in ground forces. UNIFIL forces have remained in their posts across southern Lebanon during the escalating operations, despite warnings to pull back.

So Israeli troops are now firing at UN peacekeepers who are stationed in Lebanon.

I wanted to take a moment and post the following as a good rounded look at the situation on the anniversary of the war.

Personally, I'm hoping that this will finally bring back enough global attention to realize a two state solution. However, I'm tempering optimism because I haven't seen the involvement I think will be necessary from the neighboring Arab countries to facilitate the necessary security agreements.

A deep dive into the lives impacted by the war.
NPR Consider This: October 7th: A year of war through the eyes of those who lived it

The October 7th Hamas-led attacks on Israel and the subsequent Israeli invasion of Gaza have changed the course of geopolitics. The events have also upended the lives of countless individuals, and they will have far reaching consequences for the world.

A short podcast covering the anniversary of the war.
NPR Up First: One Year Since Oct. 7, How The War Shapes The Vote In Michigan

This week NPR is reporting on how the war between Israel and Hamas has changed people's lives, one year in. Also, how is the conflict affecting Arab-American voters' attitudes in the swing state of Michigan?

A hard look at the humanitarian reality of the situation.
NYT gift link: Nowhere to Go: How Gaza Became a Mass Death Trap

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been prevented from fleeing the narrow strip of land even as bombs have rained down, famine has loomed and disease has spread.

Of all the grim distinctions of the yearlong war in Gaza that followed the savage Hamas attack on Israel last Oct. 7, one may stand out for its deadly singularity: Palestinian civilians there have nowhere to go. Barricaded by barbed-wire fences, tanks and soldiers, they have been effectively imprisoned for 12 months in a 141-square-mile strip of land between Egypt and Israel that has become a killing zone.

A fairly high level overview of the main lines of events.
NYT gift link: One Year Later

We’re covering the anniversary of the Oct. 7 attack — and how it has reshaped the Middle East.

1 Year of Insanity...

From the Institute of the Study of War

Hezbollah appears to be trying to avoid decisive engagements with the IDF. Israeli sources reported that Hezbollah is trying to keep its forces at a distance and will withdraw shortly after making contact with the IDF.[7] Hezbollah is fighting primarily through ambushes and the use of anti-tank missile fire and IEDs.[8] Hezbollah has also kept the bulk of its forces deep inside Lebanon rather than deploying them to the front.[9] This behavior indicates that Hezbollah retains effective command-and-control at least at the tactical level and possibly higher, despite the extensive Israeli killing of Hezbollah commanders. The IDF has observed some indications that the combat effectiveness of some Hezbollah forces has been reduced, however.[10] The IDF announced on October 5 that it has killed about 440 Hezbollah militants since launching ground operations into Lebanon.[11]

I wanted to underline this because it's a bit interesting - killing Hezbollah's main leadership was expected to be a decapitation strike but apparently this has not been possible, and it's quite obvious given the fact that like any Militia they are decentralized. It also doesn't seem like Israel has made huge strides in advancing into Lebanon, I did a quick measurement test and the distance is actually a short walk from my neighborhood to the fields - goes to show how small the Levant is. So either they're gauging where to strike or something's seriously up. I also do think that a majority of the casualties aren't from direct engagements but are from airstrikes, though I'm not sure.

I remember the advancement into Gaza city was much longer too, the playing field of these armies has radically changed from the era of large armies fighting each other in the desert. During the Yom-Kippur war, the Egyptian and Israeli armies fought over larger pieces of land in faster succession, here it is much, much smaller.

On IDF tour of southern Lebanon, signs of Hezbollah tunnels and arms (Washington Post)

The Israel Defense Forces brought a small group of journalists into the southwestern corner of Lebanon on Sunday to show what commanders described as extensive and entrenched militant infrastructure.

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The Washington Post was not able to independently confirm that the tunnel shafts, military gear and firing positions displayed by the IDF were Hezbollah assets. Most of the weapons described had already been removed, and reporters were not allowed to leave the company of Israeli soldiers.

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Despite its heavy losses, Hezbollah has demonstrated it can still strike deep inside Israel. The group claimed credit Sunday for a drone attack on Binyamina, 25 miles south of Haifa, which it said targeted a military training area. At least 40 people were wounded, Israeli authorities said, including five in critical condition.

Israeli political and military leaders blame the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL, for allowing Hezbollah to build up its arsenal within view of Israeli neighborhoods.

Norkin pointed to the tower of a UNIFIL base, about 65 yards away from one of the shafts, wondering how the soldiers inside could have missed the construction of tunnels nearby.

“UNIFIL reports all violations that we observe,” said Andrea Tenenti, UNIFIL’s spokesman in Beirut. “If we had seen a tunnel, we would have reported it to the Security Council,” he added, saying U.N. forces lack “thermal imaging sensors or ground penetrating radar to detect underground activity.”

Tensions between Israel and the United Nations soared over the last week after UNIFIL rebuffed Israeli demands to withdraw from the border area. Since Thursday, the IDF has opened fire on several UNIFIL positions, injuring five peacekeepers from the multinational force. Israeli officials, and the commanders escorting journalists Sunday, have denied U.N. claims that they are targeting its troops.

“We are not at war with UNIFIL,” Norkin said. “I have told my soldiers that.” The injuries suffered by the peacekeepers were mistakes attributable to Hezbollah operating so near to U.N. facilities and personnel, he said.

On Sunday, according to UNIFIL, two IDF tanks destroyed the main gate and “forcibly entered” a U.N. position near the Lebanese village of Ramyeh. “Any deliberate attack on peacekeepers is a grave violation of international humanitarian law,” UNIFIL said in a statement.

The IDF said the incident happened after its forces came under fire, and that the tank was trying to evacuate injured soldiers when it backed into the post.

I don’t know much about the UNIFIL, but according to Wikipedia, they’ve been in Lebanon since 1978 (!) Here is some background from Reuters:

UNIFIL: What is the mandate of UN peacekeepers in southern Lebanon?

It seems that they’ve been given the basically impossible mission (for such a small force) of removing Hezbollah so instead they mostly ignore them. But they occasionally do some other things like clearing land mines.

WHAT DOES RESOLUTION 1701 MANDATE?

It allows peacekeepers to help the Lebanese army keep the area of operations free of weapons or armed personnel other than those of the Lebanese state.

That has sparked friction with Iran-backed Hezbollah, which effectively controls southern Lebanon despite the presence of the Lebanese army. Hezbollah is a heavily armed militant group that is Lebanon's most powerful political force.
The peacekeeping mission is also directed by resolution 1701 "to take all necessary action in areas of deployment of its forces and as it deems within its capabilities, to ensure that its area of operations is not utilized for hostile activities of any kind."

Biden sends missile system and 100 troops to Israel, deepening U.S. role (Washington Post)

The United States is sending one of its most advanced missile defense systems and about 100 U.S. troops to Israel, deepening U.S. involvement in the escalating war in the Middle East amid U.S. expectations of an imminent Israeli assault on Iran.

The mission marks the first significant deployment of U.S. troops to Israel since the war in Gaza began and comes just three weeks before the U.S. presidential election in which U.S. involvement in the conflict has been a polarizing issue on the campaign trail. U.S. officials have been encouraging Israel to avoid targeting Iran’s nuclear, oil and gas sites out of fear that it could spark an even larger escalation that upends the global economy.

The deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile system, or THAAD, is the latest indication that the United States expects the Israeli assault to be “so comprehensive that the Iranians will have to respond,” said Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert who has advised multiple Republican and Democratic administrations. The THAAD deployment adds to the more than 50,000 tons of armaments and military equipment the United States has sent Israel since the start of the war last October, according to Israel’s Defense Ministry.

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On Friday, the Biden administration imposed economic sanctions on Iran’s petroleum industry, targeting Tehran’s fleet of tankers, in the hopes that such action would lessen Israel’s desire to strike Iran’s energy assets, which could prompt Tehran to target oil facilities owned by Washington’s Arab allies.