21
votes
Canadian Election 2021
CBC Coverage - CBC Poll Tracker
Edit: CBC have projected a Liberal win.
Seat Changes (Projected):
Liberal: +1
Conservative: –2
Bloc Québécois: +2
New Democrat: +1
Green: –1
People's Party: 0
Other: –1
Which is totally justified "attack" given earlier this year the party voted down a resolution to officially recognize climate change, which is especially idiotic considering that the majority of Canadians have time and time again listed it as one of their primary concerns... even amidst the pandemic.
So the CPC only has itself to blame if they lose this election.
p.s. And just to be clear: Fuck Trudeau for calling this early election. Between this and him breaking his promise on election reform last election, he has pretty much ensured I will never vote for the Liberals ever again.
Probably because the various Conservative parties across Canada keep giving them more ammunition, and the Liberals pointing out all those instances keeps benefiting them? So why would they stop?
I am no fan of the Liberal party, especially these days, but Canada is not divided on the abortion issue so Conservatives are doing themselves no favors by constantly trying to mess with the laws surrounding it.
I promise I'm not trying to rag on you too much but I can't ignore this ;)
I mean let's just ignore how he's a former CPC prodigy, former Harper cabinet minister and the absolute sterling defense of Alberta's health policies O'Toole just lent to Kenney. But yea, no connection whatsoever!
I definitely agree that there isn't any sort of formal connection between the two but they do share the same social circles, get policies constructed at the same think tanks and generally have far too many 'soft' connections for them to be truly distinct. The UCP has a larger concentration of the more extreme side of conservatism but its also present in the CPC as well.
As a fellow moderate, I understand where you're coming from. I too have wanted the CPC too pivot towards me for years now and even registered as a member one year to vote for Michael Chong. I acknowledge what Erin O'Toole is doing in trying to steer the party towards the centre but in my opinion it's too late.
If he wins tonight I'll take solace in the silver lining that maybe the moderates can gain a little clout within the CPC which honestly would be a good thing for Canada but I just don't see it. Too much of the party, from the candidates to the machinery, is centered around a flavour of conservatism I find wholly distasteful. Increasingly, their primary engagement is driven from websites like Canada Proud over old-fashioned Tory columnists. Andrew Coyne has damn near been laughed out of CPC circles, and its not like he's not conservative.
I could be (very) wrong but in my mind EOT could lose very badly tonight. If that happens I honestly don't know what happens to the CPC. Likely its a permanent knife in the heart for the CPC as a home for moderates and someone like Poilievre takes over. I don't think they merge with the PPC but they will shift rightwards and eat their voterbase, they just have too much political machinery vs the PPC for that not to be the case.
Yea its definitely just a hunch I have but I'm basing that off of four things:
Definitely agree with you there but much like the federal NDP I think there are too many CPC MPs and voters who'd rather a more partisan platform than a governing one.
Well I was very wrong about my hunch! Happy to be wrong in this case, as it’s result of a very poor performance by the PPC. Stay golden Canada.
Small world. We must live in the same riding! :P
I voted for Jahangir (NDP) this election though, since I am done with strategic voting for the Liberals, especially after this bullshit. That and my vote doesn't ever seem to matter anyways, since Chong is likely always going to keep winning here... but to be fair, it's for good reason; He is actually a pretty decent MP, and unlike most of his party he isn't afraid to cross party lines for votes he believes in (e.g. Motion 103). In fact, I actually would have preferred it had he won the leadership race in 2017 instead of Scheer, and was disappointed he decided against throwing his hat in the ring again in 2020. :(
Haha no I don't live in your riding I meant register as a CPC member to vote for him in their leadership election. He's definitely leagues better than Scheer but his poor performance also I think demonstrates how distasteful someone like him is to the people who participate in CPC leadership elections aka the party membership. I wish there were more Red Tories left in the party but sadly they're a dying breed.
The PCs made a pact with the devil when they merged with the Reform/Alliance all those years ago, and the tail has been wagging the dog ever since. :(
Preaching to the choir ;)
Historically that has been true, but if the CPC were to somehow split now I think the NDP would actually see a large increase in seats at the Liberals expense, since people wouldn't feel the need to keep strategically voting for the Liberals just to prevent consolidated Conservative rule. And I suspect that is also why the Liberals back-peddled so hard on their election reform promise, since the effect would have been similar for them due to it also reducing the need for people to throw strategic votes their way.
The various Provincial Liberal and Conservative parties are not officially connected to the Federal parties, but acting as if they are not in any way associated with each other, or that the Federal parties are incapable of influencing their Provincial counterparts, is incredibly disingenuous... especially since candidates moving between the Federal and Provincial levels isn't all that uncommon.
E.g. Kenney was chosen by Harper to be his Parliamentary Secretary after becoming PM, and over the years was then appointed to various key Ministerial positions, before culminating in him becoming Minster of Defense. Kenney was even considered one of the forerunners to succeed Harper before he decided to resign, and run for the Alberta PC party leadership instead. So don't give me the "not a product of the CPC" BS, please. He absolutely is. The vast majority of his career was spent with the various incarnations of the Federal Conservative party (Reform->Alliance->CPC).
Are you serious? The Liberal climate plan is the only plan among all the parties that has support from the top climate researchers and economists in the country..
Here is Andrew Leach's take on their plan.
If what you were saying is true, they'd be getting off that train. You're entitled to your opinion but please don't just make stuff up.
What are the alternatives? Production is way up in the oil sands and revenues are way down -- that's something that no one outside the green party is going to act too aggressively upon because its economic suicide for Alberta. You should be happy that the government knows this, not using it as a talking point of convenience while holding up the party that wants to bury their head moreso than any other re: climate change.
The Liberal climate platform is the best we have from all our parties, and certainly the best that will be getting worked on in an elected government. My point is that every non-partisan person who does this for a living is pointing to one climate plan above the others. That's evidence enough for me.
I mean this is pretty much just partisan hyperbole. I agree that the election is untimely in a pandemic but this
is incorrect. Minority governments almost never last the full period, you either call one on your terms or your opponents call one on theirs. The "$610 million" pricetag is ignoring the fact if we aren't having an election now, we're having one a year or two later for the same price -- it's not just a waste of $610 million.
Again, call one on your terms or get one called on you. That's just politics. Hardly an indefensible election.
I suggest you take a look at the avergae length of a Canadian minority government and the reasons for the terminating election. This is hardly anything new.
Kinda low-effort, but I saw this the other day and thought it was pretty funny and sadly spot on:
https://www.thespec.com/opinion/editorial-cartoon/2021/09/18/sept-18-editorial-cartoon.html
Alright, just a few questions:
Why is BQ blocking Trudeau's view?
Is the "Quebec Secularism" rock on Singh basically saying he's losing Quebecois votes becauese he wears religious clothing?
Is the "Green party" rock behind the green party just a joke at the Green party being unlikable, a single issue party, etc. or is it about something else?
Who put their leg in front of Toole?
Who tried to put their leg in front of Trudeau?
What's the context behind the "JWR" book one of the spectators is holding?
I'll give this a go:
Trudeau probably needs to do well in Quebec to deliver a majority. In of the debates, a moderator asked a very pointed question aimed at BQ leader Blanchet about their infamous secularism law, Bill 21. Anyways, he was leading in Quebec until this question insulted many Quebecois and the BQ started to poll a lot better.
Bill 21 is essentially antithetical to the NDP and largely the Liberals as well. But Quebec politics are different than the anglophone world and many leftwing voters are proponents. This has been hard to deal with for the NDP and has basically wiped away all their previous inroads into Quebec.
The green party has been imploding ever since their new leader has taken over. They've lost a by-election and had one of their 3 sitting MPs cross the floor to join the Liberals. This has mostly been viewed by pundits as entirely an own-goal.
That's Jason Kenney. See my comments here.
The first one is Legault, who is the sitting premier for Quebec's CAQ party and endorsesd O'Toole this election.
This person also has their leg on the track, just not very effectively. :P JWR is a central figure of the SNC-Lavalin scandal that has dogged the Liberals since before the last election. She released a new book last week on the doorstep of the election to, depending on who you ask, sell books, get back at Trudeau, or highlight new information.
Hahah good catch I did not even see him there!
Pretty fitting as well :P
The Quebec Secularism rock behind Singh is likely in reference to his vocal opposition to Quebec's recent religious symbols ban for public employees, which may have killed the NDPs chances at gaining any seats in the Province.
And as a result of that, the BQ is the main opponent to the Liberals in Quebec right now. And so the Liberals fate in this election may ultimately be decided by how well (or poorly) the BQ perform.
And the Green party dragging a rock with their own name is due to them being their own worst enemy. The clusterfuck that occurred during their last leadership race being only one of many times they have shot themselves in the foot. And more recently, it also came to light that they have issues with racism and transphobia within the party.
Didn't notice your edit until I posted this. So to answer those additional questions:
The person putting his leg out in front of O'Toole is Jason Kenney, the Premier of Alberta, who is largely responsible for how bad things have gotten there now due to his horrible handling of COVID (which O'Toole praised shortly before the shit hit the fan there).
The person putting his leg in front of Trudeau is François Legault, the Premier of Quebec, who recently endorsed O'Toole.
And JWR is Jody Wilson-Raybould who recently put out a scathing book making mention of Trudeau's alleged interference during the SNC-Lavalin affair, amongst other things, like his supposed lip service to and inaction on Indigenous issues.
That's both hilarious and accurate. :P
Some more kinda low-effort but still funny bits of satire from The Beaverton today:
Election results: Everyone lost
Liberals unveil $650 million “Spot the Difference” puzzle
In my opinion, the CPC have sunk themselves on this one from an extremely untimely endorsement of Alberta's COVID policies. I think they were a lock to win at least a minority until the healthcare system in Alberta started to near collapse under COVID strain and the provincial government had to walk back their "open for summer" plans and institute a (totally not) vaccine mandate.
Basically this is what O'Toole had to say several weeks before the healthcare system started imploding in Alberta.. He hasn't taken any questions from the media since, as he needs the anti-vax people who may vote PPC to show up and vote for him but also needs the moderates. No matter what he says he's going to alienate some of his voters and its been a pretty large wedge issue.
I could be wrong but in my mind the pandemic is the number one issue this election and people want a party to vote for that also serves an outlet to vote AGAINST the anti-vaccine crowd. The CPC is not providing that, instead hoping to capture the strategic votes against the Liberals that might otherwise go to the PPC and in the end that's going to undo them.
Well so far it would appear that the early election gambit paid off 👀
And once again, Annamie Paul fails to get anyone's trust.
So, according to Elections Canada, this is what the election looks like:
What did you think of the results so far? Have the Liberals already won?
The Liberals will win a minority with the seat counts virtually unchanged and not much movement in the vote percentages either (aside from the implosion of the Greens and tentative rise of the PPC).
The questions I have now are:
Edit: I'm also curious to see how the mail-in ballots affect the numbers.
We'll probably be back at the polls in no more than 2 years would be my guess.
Somewhat hard question to answer but here's my guesses.
I think when mail-ins come in the vote will be closer but the Conservatives will definitely lead.
I think it's less of an issue for two reasons (but would be interesting to hear an American perspective as well):
We're in a multi-party system so it's expected there's going to be a lot more idiosyncrasies in FPTP. Additionally the overall conservative popular vote still trails the overall progressive popular vote by a fair margin so its somewhat of a wash to me. For instance I personally didn't view the Harper years as inherently unfair or anything even though a maximum of ~40% of the country wanted conservative polices -- that's just the way the bread breaks sometimes in FPTP.
The complaints chiefly pertain to the electoral college -- which has no equivalent here. The closest thing would be the US house election in which the Conservative party has uber gerrymandered themselves. Their problem is that the bluest of blue ridings run up Putin-esque numbers for the CPC, certain ridings in AB are 70-80% CPC while even in super red Toronto the Liberals are pulling in 60% at absolute best. I don't really think there is an answer to this kind of population distribution, even if you could 'redistrict' how would you even divide the sea of blue from SK to interior BC?
I think maybe a few more elections like this one and who knows, maybe our Conservative friends will even take up the call of PR. ;)