I think it's important to recognize that - a lot of people fall back to the idea that turnout is what matters, but in practice, the people who vote are the people who vote, and I feel like the...
While it’s always challenging to nail down the details of an electoral shift, the available data generally suggests that Democratic gains were driven slightly more by flipping Mr. Trump’s supporters than by benefiting from a superior turnout, at least for Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey.
I think it's important to recognize that - a lot of people fall back to the idea that turnout is what matters, but in practice, the people who vote are the people who vote, and I feel like the idea tends to be an excuse to avoid having to be strategic in messaging.
You do need to win over some of the other's sides voters - it's not simply a matter of energizing your own base, especially in purple states.
To be fair it kinda seems like a similar situation to covid where the Democratic party doesn’t have to actually change anything they’re doing because gestures broadly at everything and 8 years...
To be fair it kinda seems like a similar situation to covid where the Democratic party doesn’t have to actually change anything they’re doing because gestures broadly at everything and 8 years from now we’ll be right back where we started, with one conservative party and one looney tunes party.
I hate to say it but the party’s future depends on the success of people like Mamdani. If he’s able to get most of his policies implemented and working there will be a shift. Other cities and...
I hate to say it but the party’s future depends on the success of people like Mamdani. If he’s able to get most of his policies implemented and working there will be a shift. Other cities and states will have their own democratic socialists running as Democrats. The party will change from within.
It doesn't actually matter if his policies are implemented and working unfortunately. What matters is the messaging about those policies. Realistically, nothing he's proposing is going to be 100%...
It doesn't actually matter if his policies are implemented and working unfortunately. What matters is the messaging about those policies. Realistically, nothing he's proposing is going to be 100% amazing or 100% terrible. In all likelihood his platforms will have pros and cons, just like everything else.
What matters is how the media reports on those policies, how people react to those reports, and who can control the message.
As unfortunate as it is, we really should have learned the lesson 10 years ago that reality has a very small influence on politics. Vibes are king.
I guarantee Democrats take the wrong message from this. I think Hispanics are reacting to the wildly abusive execution of border policy, but there are a lot of Hispanics who broadly agree with the...
The same story holds among Hispanic voters, who snapped back toward Democrats in both states. The exit polls in New Jersey found that Ms. Sherrill won a whopping 18 percent of Mr. Trump’s Hispanic support in the state (no figures were reported for Virginia, where the Hispanic vote is smaller).
I guarantee Democrats take the wrong message from this. I think Hispanics are reacting to the wildly abusive execution of border policy, but there are a lot of Hispanics who broadly agree with the principles of tightening immigration and expanded deportations, anti-trans policies, and Christian nationalism. These gains among Hispanic voters can easily be lost to a more moderate Republican presidential candidate.
As much as I hate agreeing with you, the next Republican presidential candidate seems like they have a pretty easy road ahead of them by simply not being as batshit insane as Trump. If they could...
As much as I hate agreeing with you, the next Republican presidential candidate seems like they have a pretty easy road ahead of them by simply not being as batshit insane as Trump.
If they could tone down the things that Trump's doing that hurts basically all Americans like tarrif whiplash, insane funding cuts siphoning money to the gestapo, and deranged rants on twitter while keeping all the stupid culture war and religious stuff, I think the Democrats would have a very tough time.
There's a bit of a cargo cult mentality in the Republican party though, and I guarantee they're just going to try to find someone who can do a decent Trump impression in 2028 and fail miserably because of it.
If the Republican Party broadly moves towards the center, it will be a win for all. If a moderate republican is the worst case scenario for any election, I’ll sleep just fine at night.
If the Republican Party broadly moves towards the center, it will be a win for all. If a moderate republican is the worst case scenario for any election, I’ll sleep just fine at night.
I would very much not like to see a Republican win in 2028. Look how bad the Supreme Court is now — this will be an opportunity to replace both Thomas and Alito. If Republicans pick the...
I would very much not like to see a Republican win in 2028. Look how bad the Supreme Court is now — this will be an opportunity to replace both Thomas and Alito. If Republicans pick the replacements, Republicans hegemony will be unchallenged for two or more generations.
I’m with you there. I also want to see positive change in the country. I’m more getting at the fact that if an election decides whether progress will be made vs the state of the country being...
I’m with you there. I also want to see positive change in the country.
I’m more getting at the fact that if an election decides whether progress will be made vs the state of the country being frozen for a few years, it’s much less stressful for me. When the choices are between status quo or fucking up domestic and foreign policy for decades, election outcomes are much more anxiety inducing.
I think it's important to recognize that - a lot of people fall back to the idea that turnout is what matters, but in practice, the people who vote are the people who vote, and I feel like the idea tends to be an excuse to avoid having to be strategic in messaging.
You do need to win over some of the other's sides voters - it's not simply a matter of energizing your own base, especially in purple states.
To be fair it kinda seems like a similar situation to covid where the Democratic party doesn’t have to actually change anything they’re doing because gestures broadly at everything and 8 years from now we’ll be right back where we started, with one conservative party and one looney tunes party.
I hate to say it but the party’s future depends on the success of people like Mamdani. If he’s able to get most of his policies implemented and working there will be a shift. Other cities and states will have their own democratic socialists running as Democrats. The party will change from within.
It doesn't actually matter if his policies are implemented and working unfortunately. What matters is the messaging about those policies. Realistically, nothing he's proposing is going to be 100% amazing or 100% terrible. In all likelihood his platforms will have pros and cons, just like everything else.
What matters is how the media reports on those policies, how people react to those reports, and who can control the message.
As unfortunate as it is, we really should have learned the lesson 10 years ago that reality has a very small influence on politics. Vibes are king.
Thats a lot of pressure to put on one guy
Per tradition
I guarantee Democrats take the wrong message from this. I think Hispanics are reacting to the wildly abusive execution of border policy, but there are a lot of Hispanics who broadly agree with the principles of tightening immigration and expanded deportations, anti-trans policies, and Christian nationalism. These gains among Hispanic voters can easily be lost to a more moderate Republican presidential candidate.
As much as I hate agreeing with you, the next Republican presidential candidate seems like they have a pretty easy road ahead of them by simply not being as batshit insane as Trump.
If they could tone down the things that Trump's doing that hurts basically all Americans like tarrif whiplash, insane funding cuts siphoning money to the gestapo, and deranged rants on twitter while keeping all the stupid culture war and religious stuff, I think the Democrats would have a very tough time.
There's a bit of a cargo cult mentality in the Republican party though, and I guarantee they're just going to try to find someone who can do a decent Trump impression in 2028 and fail miserably because of it.
Such a candidate wouldn't be able to drive turnout among the base. They wouldn't even get past the primary.
If the Republican Party broadly moves towards the center, it will be a win for all. If a moderate republican is the worst case scenario for any election, I’ll sleep just fine at night.
I would very much not like to see a Republican win in 2028. Look how bad the Supreme Court is now — this will be an opportunity to replace both Thomas and Alito. If Republicans pick the replacements, Republicans hegemony will be unchallenged for two or more generations.
I’m with you there. I also want to see positive change in the country.
I’m more getting at the fact that if an election decides whether progress will be made vs the state of the country being frozen for a few years, it’s much less stressful for me. When the choices are between status quo or fucking up domestic and foreign policy for decades, election outcomes are much more anxiety inducing.