I am scared of this. I've seen what "private real estate development" and privatization do, and they're not pretty. For all of the likely faults of Cuba's politics, there's a lot of places where...
I am scared of this. I've seen what "private real estate development" and privatization do, and they're not pretty. For all of the likely faults of Cuba's politics, there's a lot of places where this could make everything worse. Housing being restricted for the sake of profit, banks extracting wealth, worsening of medical care... I suspect ecological damage is most likely of all though, as I've heard Cuba has done quite well on that front, but I don't think private equity would give a shit.
Double this all for the fact that this is almost certainly due to the massive pressure that the fuel crisis has caused. This means that "opening up" the economy could end up meaning something similar to Venezuela — that is to say, looting. It'd be U.S. companies getting sold first dibs and creating local monopolies with reckless abandon because they'd be backed by the U.S. government, which wouldn't care about the consequences for the local population when run by Democrats, much less Republicans who literally want to annex the place. Then we add on the fact that this was done with absolutely no promise of the fuel blockade ending, and just... eugh.
I can't be certain what of this will happen or won't, though, as while I am certain that privatization is a broadly terrible policy, I don't have much information on exactly where the Cuban government might already be fucking up; The United States wanting Cuba to fail for so long makes it hard to trust criticism of the latter, especially with Republicans poisoning the well. So for all I know housing is already extremely terrible and couldn't get much worse.
Even so, I worry. Things would have to be very, very bad for privatization to be a better option.
I mean....depending on your definition's here (and i believe roughly by the definition of the article/proposition) this covers nearly all other real estate on the planet. I'm not aware of some...
I've seen what "private real estate development" and privatization do
I mean....depending on your definition's here (and i believe roughly by the definition of the article/proposition) this covers nearly all other real estate on the planet.
I'm not aware of some country that's doing fantastic because it doesn't have private real estate development. Even other "communist" or the socialist/capitalist(basically the nordic) countries mostly have private real estate development.
Privatization worked pretty well for China. Certainly the economy is not fully privatized, but it's also clear that around the time of Deng Xiaping, the CCP realized that they cannot plan an...
Privatization worked pretty well for China. Certainly the economy is not fully privatized, but it's also clear that around the time of Deng Xiaping, the CCP realized that they cannot plan an economy from top to bottom. The CCP still puts its finger on the scale, but in the forms of economic inputs - cheap loans and capital to sectors they like, tax exemptions to SEZ cities, and so forth. The results speak for themselves.
This is convincing to me. I hadn't considered this an option, and I have my doubts it'll occur due to all the immense pressure, but it's still possible and so it gives me hope that looting may not...
This is convincing to me. I hadn't considered this an option, and I have my doubts it'll occur due to all the immense pressure, but it's still possible and so it gives me hope that looting may not occur. Thank you.
Cuba famously has an extreme housing shortage. Even pro-communist sources, after proudly (understandably) pointing out that Cubans pay little for housing, admit that much of the housing stock is...
I am scared of this. I've seen what "private real estate development" and privatization do, and they're not pretty. For all of the likely faults of Cuba's politics, there's a lot of places where this could make everything worse. Housing being restricted for the sake of profit...
Cuba famously has an extreme housing shortage. Even pro-communist sources, after proudly (understandably) pointing out that Cubans pay little for housing, admit that much of the housing stock is deteriorating and that
[y]ou don’t have to meet many Cuban families to witness the sharing of one or two room homes by three or more generations.
Capitalism is imperfect, obviously. Many capitalist countries have constrained housing markets as well, of course. My point is more that things are very, very bad and privatization is a better option.
The worst system except for all the others and all that.
To address your more specific concerns about looting, it's a real risk. But it's probably not a risk like you're thinking - the embargo means that US companies are legally forbidden from buying assets, and it would take an act of Congress to change that.
Instead the risk is coming from inside the house, as it were. There's a joke in Russian about the post-Yeltsin privatization period that calls it something like "grabitization," (....works better in Russian) because the elites-who-would-become-oligarchs basically divvied up the country and that was that. That's the real risk to be concerned about, particularly given massive corruption in Cuba. The structural factors are more similar than they are different. I know you'd questioned the validity of the corruption claims, but a look at some independent sources should convince you that it's a real problem, I think.
Look at it this way: this lets them at least "control" what inevitably happens when foreign capital flows in. If they wait for Trump to do another decapitation strike, it's going to be a complete...
Look at it this way: this lets them at least "control" what inevitably happens when foreign capital flows in. If they wait for Trump to do another decapitation strike, it's going to be a complete free-for-all for US capital.
I think this is a prudent move in light of everything.
Many countries suffer from the "curse of oil" but I think the suffering of Venezuela under Chevez showed that a populist government can make things even worse.
Many countries suffer from the "curse of oil" but I think the suffering of Venezuela under Chevez showed that a populist government can make things even worse.
Could be one of the few positive results of Trump's presidencies. Obviously the method wasn't great, but at least it's not nothing. I once knew a Cuban who, I believe, was something like a...
Could be one of the few positive results of Trump's presidencies. Obviously the method wasn't great, but at least it's not nothing.
I once knew a Cuban who, I believe, was something like a cellular network engineer and she only made $80/month. She sent me pictures from the grocery stores and told me the kinds of food they got. It really made me feel not only sorry for her, but also embarrassed for how much I had knowing what others have.
She actually went on a vacation to France like half a week before the COVID lockdowns and everyone she knew was telling her to just stay there illegally but she was determined to emigrate legally. I haven't talked to her in several years now, but I think about her sometimes when Cuba gets brought up. I hope she made it out and is doing well.
Similar experience - an ex and I vacationed in Havana and did a few excursions into the mountains. There were highlights about the country -- communal farms, more doctors per capita than any other...
Similar experience - an ex and I vacationed in Havana and did a few excursions into the mountains. There were highlights about the country -- communal farms, more doctors per capita than any other country, no advertising on structures (so weird, so incredible), but the quality of life was poor.
It probably didn't help that for people like our tour guide, she'd see Canadians roll through with all kinds of cool stuff that wasn't available there.
I'd love to believe that communism works, and in the perfect circumstances, it could be a viable societal model. Thennnn... I remember that intelligent design with humans at the top is just asking for corruption to take hold. Maybe it's just the way Cuba was structured, but we saw more corruption day to day than we'd ever seen in our lifetime.
I feel like this gives little consideration to the circumstances Cuba has been under nationally since the Soviet Union fell apart. I don't know why folks seem eager to blame communism whenever...
I feel like this gives little consideration to the circumstances Cuba has been under nationally since the Soviet Union fell apart.
I don't know why folks seem eager to blame communism whenever Cuba's economic issues come up, considering the U.S. has had the country in a veritable headlock for decades. I may not exactly be eager to proclaim that Cuba's government is good, but this still feels deeply unfair. I don't see anyone blaming Cuba for its current fuel crisis, so how is this justified?
Frankly, I consider the ecological and medical wins that Cuba has managed to be damn impressive, considering the situation they've been stuck in.
Maybe it's just the way Cuba was structured, but we saw more corruption day to day than we'd ever seen in our lifetime.
Could you elaborate on this? I have difficulty telling if I should believe accusations of corruption with regard to Cuba due to it being hard to differentiate between legitimate and propaganda-backed criticisms, so it'd be nice to hear from someone who has been there.
Certainly US sanctions have hurt cuba, but the economic consensus - including economists like Pavel Vidal, formerly of the central bank of cuba, is that Cuba's woes are due to the planned economy...
Why are we so eager to blame communism for Cuba's economic issues when the U.S. has had the country in a veritable headlock for decades?
Certainly US sanctions have hurt cuba, but the economic consensus - including economists like Pavel Vidal, formerly of the central bank of cuba, is that Cuba's woes are due to the planned economy first and US second.
I think this quote, from a Cuban economist teaching in America, is about the most balanced answer one is going to get:
The Cuban government blames it on the embargo. [U.S. president Donald] Trump takes power in 2016, and Cuba says: well, this is because of Trump. The far right says it is due to communism, and I think that is a very simplified answer. There is a combination of factors, but I think the most important is the economic system. Keep in mind that Raúl Castro’s reforms stalled around 2016. For me, one of the fundamental causes, which has been consistent throughout the Cuban Revolution, is that Cuba does not generate enough exports to pay for imports. This leads to a trade deficit of goods. This deficit must be paid in some way, and it is paid for with dependence on another nation. First the Soviet Union, then Venezuela. And that makes the economic system unsustainable. When the protective or subsidizing partner loses, there comes a crisis. There is a crisis in the 1990s because the USSR disappears, and in the case of Venezuela, because of the humanitarian, economic, political and social crisis, and although aid from that country continues; today it sends half of the oil it sent before.
I guess I'm biased, living in a post-communist country, but in my opinion the reason is clearly "because a variation of this is what always happens". I agree. Now imagine what they could do if...
I don't know why folks seem eager to blame communism
I guess I'm biased, living in a post-communist country, but in my opinion the reason is clearly "because a variation of this is what always happens".
Frankly, I consider the ecological and medical wins that Cuba has managed to be damn impressive, considering the situation they've been stuck in.
I agree. Now imagine what they could do if they didn't live under an evil, oppressive, corrupt and inefficient system.
I am too, being as I live in a failing capitalist state currently on its way to fascism. From my perspective, the same is true of capitalism. Well, mostly. If I'm honest about this, I don't think...
I guess I'm biased, living in a post-communist country, but in my opinion the reason is clearly "because a variation of this is what always happens".
I am too, being as I live in a failing capitalist state currently on its way to fascism. From my perspective, the same is true of capitalism.
Well, mostly. If I'm honest about this, I don't think "always" or even "mostly always" is true for either system. Each has its version that works better and its version that works worse, in my mind, and I also wonder if the failures are so similar due to each model orbiting a superpower – the U.S. for capitalism, the USSR for communism – and thus propagating those countries' ills. If the brain starts failing, so do the organs.
But I don't want to dwell on it too much. I suspect we've both got very different views due to where and how we grew up, and I'd rather us not accidentally press each others' sore points.
I agree. Now imagine what they could do if they didn't live under an evil, oppressive, corrupt and inefficient system.
For what it's worth, a system can be corrupt and still have parts that work great. Changing the system doesn't necessarily mean making the good parts better. For a capitalist example, I'd say that the U.S. is broadly awful, but the National Transportation Safety Board is fantastic.
Eh. While on the one hand, I think there's lots of actual and theoretical evidence against planned economies (looks at...basically any corporations planning and assume it will be worse. Agile for...
Could be one of the few positive results of Trump's presidencies. Obviously the method wasn't great, but at least it's not nothing.
Eh. While on the one hand, I think there's lots of actual and theoretical evidence against planned economies (looks at...basically any corporations planning and assume it will be worse. Agile for Maslow needs is not a fun idea.), I do agree that Cuba's planned economy is in its own way, I'm skeptical this is going to do much but make things worse.
A big problem of planned economies, be it causation or correlation, has been a huge pairing with intensely damaging corruption. EVERY system has corruption, but Cuba is unfortunately a country known for it.
Those corrupt people are unlikely to just suddenly say "oh okay now things work the way I hoped" and stop being corrupt. It's a bit like the "just legalize drugs, then the drug lords will go legit" stuff. Once you have a major corruption problem it's hard to get out of that situation, and I feel that Cuba has a corruption problem first and foremost.
I do hope that something, honestly anything, helps them all because it's a tragedy how much shit the average Cuban puts up with, but i'm not sure this is it.
I am scared of this. I've seen what "private real estate development" and privatization do, and they're not pretty. For all of the likely faults of Cuba's politics, there's a lot of places where this could make everything worse. Housing being restricted for the sake of profit, banks extracting wealth, worsening of medical care... I suspect ecological damage is most likely of all though, as I've heard Cuba has done quite well on that front, but I don't think private equity would give a shit.
Double this all for the fact that this is almost certainly due to the massive pressure that the fuel crisis has caused. This means that "opening up" the economy could end up meaning something similar to Venezuela — that is to say, looting. It'd be U.S. companies getting sold first dibs and creating local monopolies with reckless abandon because they'd be backed by the U.S. government, which wouldn't care about the consequences for the local population when run by Democrats, much less Republicans who literally want to annex the place. Then we add on the fact that this was done with absolutely no promise of the fuel blockade ending, and just... eugh.
I can't be certain what of this will happen or won't, though, as while I am certain that privatization is a broadly terrible policy, I don't have much information on exactly where the Cuban government might already be fucking up; The United States wanting Cuba to fail for so long makes it hard to trust criticism of the latter, especially with Republicans poisoning the well. So for all I know housing is already extremely terrible and couldn't get much worse.
Even so, I worry. Things would have to be very, very bad for privatization to be a better option.
I mean....depending on your definition's here (and i believe roughly by the definition of the article/proposition) this covers nearly all other real estate on the planet.
I'm not aware of some country that's doing fantastic because it doesn't have private real estate development. Even other "communist" or the socialist/capitalist(basically the nordic) countries mostly have private real estate development.
Privatization worked pretty well for China. Certainly the economy is not fully privatized, but it's also clear that around the time of Deng Xiaping, the CCP realized that they cannot plan an economy from top to bottom. The CCP still puts its finger on the scale, but in the forms of economic inputs - cheap loans and capital to sectors they like, tax exemptions to SEZ cities, and so forth. The results speak for themselves.
This is convincing to me. I hadn't considered this an option, and I have my doubts it'll occur due to all the immense pressure, but it's still possible and so it gives me hope that looting may not occur. Thank you.
Cuba famously has an extreme housing shortage. Even pro-communist sources, after proudly (understandably) pointing out that Cubans pay little for housing, admit that much of the housing stock is deteriorating and that
Capitalism is imperfect, obviously. Many capitalist countries have constrained housing markets as well, of course. My point is more that things are very, very bad and privatization is a better option.
The worst system except for all the others and all that.
To address your more specific concerns about looting, it's a real risk. But it's probably not a risk like you're thinking - the embargo means that US companies are legally forbidden from buying assets, and it would take an act of Congress to change that.
Instead the risk is coming from inside the house, as it were. There's a joke in Russian about the post-Yeltsin privatization period that calls it something like "grabitization," (....works better in Russian) because the elites-who-would-become-oligarchs basically divvied up the country and that was that. That's the real risk to be concerned about, particularly given massive corruption in Cuba. The structural factors are more similar than they are different. I know you'd questioned the validity of the corruption claims, but a look at some independent sources should convince you that it's a real problem, I think.
Look at it this way: this lets them at least "control" what inevitably happens when foreign capital flows in. If they wait for Trump to do another decapitation strike, it's going to be a complete free-for-all for US capital.
I think this is a prudent move in light of everything.
Many countries suffer from the "curse of oil" but I think the suffering of Venezuela under Chevez showed that a populist government can make things even worse.
Amazing. I hope this goes well for Cuba, and let's hope they follow the liberalization to a natural end, and not just end up with state capitalism.
Could be one of the few positive results of Trump's presidencies. Obviously the method wasn't great, but at least it's not nothing.
I once knew a Cuban who, I believe, was something like a cellular network engineer and she only made $80/month. She sent me pictures from the grocery stores and told me the kinds of food they got. It really made me feel not only sorry for her, but also embarrassed for how much I had knowing what others have.
She actually went on a vacation to France like half a week before the COVID lockdowns and everyone she knew was telling her to just stay there illegally but she was determined to emigrate legally. I haven't talked to her in several years now, but I think about her sometimes when Cuba gets brought up. I hope she made it out and is doing well.
Similar experience - an ex and I vacationed in Havana and did a few excursions into the mountains. There were highlights about the country -- communal farms, more doctors per capita than any other country, no advertising on structures (so weird, so incredible), but the quality of life was poor.
It probably didn't help that for people like our tour guide, she'd see Canadians roll through with all kinds of cool stuff that wasn't available there.
I'd love to believe that communism works, and in the perfect circumstances, it could be a viable societal model. Thennnn... I remember that intelligent design with humans at the top is just asking for corruption to take hold. Maybe it's just the way Cuba was structured, but we saw more corruption day to day than we'd ever seen in our lifetime.
I feel like this gives little consideration to the circumstances Cuba has been under nationally since the Soviet Union fell apart.
I don't know why folks seem eager to blame communism whenever Cuba's economic issues come up, considering the U.S. has had the country in a veritable headlock for decades. I may not exactly be eager to proclaim that Cuba's government is good, but this still feels deeply unfair. I don't see anyone blaming Cuba for its current fuel crisis, so how is this justified?
Frankly, I consider the ecological and medical wins that Cuba has managed to be damn impressive, considering the situation they've been stuck in.
Could you elaborate on this? I have difficulty telling if I should believe accusations of corruption with regard to Cuba due to it being hard to differentiate between legitimate and propaganda-backed criticisms, so it'd be nice to hear from someone who has been there.
Certainly US sanctions have hurt cuba, but the economic consensus - including economists like Pavel Vidal, formerly of the central bank of cuba, is that Cuba's woes are due to the planned economy first and US second.
I think this quote, from a Cuban economist teaching in America, is about the most balanced answer one is going to get:
I guess I'm biased, living in a post-communist country, but in my opinion the reason is clearly "because a variation of this is what always happens".
I agree. Now imagine what they could do if they didn't live under an evil, oppressive, corrupt and inefficient system.
I am too, being as I live in a failing capitalist state currently on its way to fascism. From my perspective, the same is true of capitalism.
Well, mostly. If I'm honest about this, I don't think "always" or even "mostly always" is true for either system. Each has its version that works better and its version that works worse, in my mind, and I also wonder if the failures are so similar due to each model orbiting a superpower – the U.S. for capitalism, the USSR for communism – and thus propagating those countries' ills. If the brain starts failing, so do the organs.
But I don't want to dwell on it too much. I suspect we've both got very different views due to where and how we grew up, and I'd rather us not accidentally press each others' sore points.
For what it's worth, a system can be corrupt and still have parts that work great. Changing the system doesn't necessarily mean making the good parts better. For a capitalist example, I'd say that the U.S. is broadly awful, but the National Transportation Safety Board is fantastic.
Eh. While on the one hand, I think there's lots of actual and theoretical evidence against planned economies (looks at...basically any corporations planning and assume it will be worse. Agile for Maslow needs is not a fun idea.), I do agree that Cuba's planned economy is in its own way, I'm skeptical this is going to do much but make things worse.
A big problem of planned economies, be it causation or correlation, has been a huge pairing with intensely damaging corruption. EVERY system has corruption, but Cuba is unfortunately a country known for it.
Those corrupt people are unlikely to just suddenly say "oh okay now things work the way I hoped" and stop being corrupt. It's a bit like the "just legalize drugs, then the drug lords will go legit" stuff. Once you have a major corruption problem it's hard to get out of that situation, and I feel that Cuba has a corruption problem first and foremost.
I do hope that something, honestly anything, helps them all because it's a tragedy how much shit the average Cuban puts up with, but i'm not sure this is it.