6
votes
Predict the next five years in the US
How do you see the next 5 years playing out, politically, economically, socially, militarily? In areas that hit closest to you? I feel I'm not confident in making a forecast more specific than “nothing good will happen." And yet I have to make huge decisions about where to live and work.
Here's a non exhaustive list of events that are totally going to happen for reals, drawn from various sources and recollections:
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Wonderful Deep Space Nine episode. Peak 90s.
I suspect most places will become actively hostile to my openly queer, trans, poly family. Other than that I can't say.
I think the bright side is that while more square miles may be hostile, the majority of people you encounter throughout the country will not be.
I enjoy topics like this but it's so hard to predict how things will look five years from now given the fact that game-changers can pop up at any time. Imagine asking the question on Jan 1, 2004. How many people would accurately predict Obama, the iPhone, Facebook, or the housing market crash? Imagine asking that question in July of 2015 or on Jan 7, 2016. There was obviously a fascination with Trump, but few people seriously imagined he would win let alone kick off an era of absolute insanity, mishandle the response to a global pandemic so badly that hundreds of thousands of people died, or lead an insurrection. You can play this game with a thousand different things, both good and bad - 1984, 1996, 1992, 1939, 1960... it's a fun exercise.
Gun to my head, I'd say the next five years look pretty bleak. BUT we never really know what's around the corner, so there is some hope in that.
One thing which might be positive is that a lot of people in the US had a direct and practical education on what happens when you don't take your vaccines. In poorer countries people accept vaccines more easily, because they actually remember when people used to die from preventable diseases.
Broadly speaking, you're right, and it grants me a little hope to be reminded just how unpredictable great developments are. But at certain times--and especially from privileged vantages--it's possible to say, "This shit is going to blow up before too long." I worked for a company that in 2005 was quietly being gutted. When offices across the nation compared notes over an online forum, a pattern emerged that was sufficiently clear for even low-level workers to predict the manner of its demise. Sometimes the limb snaps, but takes some time to hit the forest floor. In 2005, I compared my employer against the nation's circumstances at the start of Cheney's second term and foresaw a widespread crash. In 2014, it was obvious that police murder of black citizens would precipitate enduring conflict, which would involve the military. And while I laughed when Trump rode that escalator into his candidacy, I cried hysterically when he took office, because the shape of the ensuing four years was just too easy to anticipate.
Maybe the trouble with my reasoning is that these days its impossible to see the forest for the red flags wholly blocking the view.
2022
Tech Stock Correction
2023
Massive Recession in housing, stocks
2024
Trump elected President.
2025
Trump removes Russian Sanctions
2026
Trump effectively ends Nato by withdrawing US support
I predict president Tucker Carlson instead. Which is probably worse.
Do you think home prices will plummet in 2023? If so, what will be the trigger?
I think it's already happening, house prices are up, rates are up, variable rate mortgages are up...
Why do you think Trump would remove sanctions? That does not track with time in office. Like the opposite, as best I can recall.
Edit: I think overall your response to the prompt is nice. Simple and clearly identifiable markers, one per year.
If I remember correctly, he asked for 'deliverables' to give Putin, he met with Putin without other officials, he failed to brief officials on the discussions he had with Putin, he is alleged to owe Russians a lot of money, he said his personal finances were a red line that Mueller should not cross, and the sanctions imposed on Russia would have been imposed by Congress if he had not acted first.
Not just US.
Optimistic bonus: either NASA, SpaceX, NASA+SpaceX, or another NASA partnership will present very concrete plans (as opposed to the current highly aspirational plans) for putting the first human on Mars by 2040. Also, it would be super cool if it was a woman, since men where first on the Moon already.
A few years ago, I listened to an interview with Trevor Noah where he talked about some of the advice that Jon Stewart gave him on his way out. There was one line that stood out, which essentially was about anger and frustration and the importance of not letting those feelings take over. John Oliver definitely hit the point where anger took over. I'm not sure when it happened exactly, but I noticed last year that his overall tone and demeanor had changed and I could sense the exasperation. It's hard enough to stay fresh after nine(!) seasons, but I think the routine coverage of the most frustrating elements of American systems, combined with the increasingly ridiculous shitshow that American politics have become, has taken its toll.
I can say with essentially 100% certainty it was the
firstsecond episode after George Floyd was murdered by the police.Why?
As technology rapidly progresses, tradicional science fiction concepts which were previously considered too niche or too abstract enter the common vocabulary, and science fiction becomes more necessary to help understand the world we live in.
Think of how terms like AI, VR, and metaverse entered popular discourse, for example.
Edit: not to mention all the talk about Mars colonization and dystopic climate change...