2022 post: https://tildes.net/~talk/zus/welcome_to_2022_what_are_your_predictions_for_this_year

2019 post: https://tildes.net/~talk/9fs/what_will_happen_in_2019

HN predictions for 2023: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628

Suggestion: Include confidence score for all of your predictions, try to assign a numeric value. This can be super insightful for review time! Thanks @skybrian for the brilliant idea last year.

Let's hear some crazy ones. Who's going to live and die? Which show is going to get cancelled? Will Apple release an iPhone 14? Will the Queen make it to the 22nd century? Will Texas finally secede?

Edit: Quick retrospective, same thread for 2019. Jeez has it been three years already?

How do you see the next 5 years playing out, politically, economically, socially, militarily? In areas that hit closest to you? I feel I'm not confident in making a forecast more specific than “nothing good will happen." And yet I have to make huge decisions about where to live and work.

This is a pretty open-ended question, can be about politics, business, technology, culture, most things really. Only requirement is that what you thought was gonna happen actually happened because obviously there is a lot of stuff that will happen in the future if problems keep being dismissed by dumb people.

If my title is not clear, someone claiming letting social media be run by the same ads that run television is a recipe for disaster in 2010 is someone ahead of the curve (by a lot, obviously).

In my case, a teacher once asked me to write a satire paper/ficticious news article or something, I wrote about anti-democracy protests in Brazil. 2-3 years later, there were anti democracy protests, although most of the details were either missed or wrong.

I have these 2 quotes here. This quote is apparently from this book, cited in this article:

If the two parties do not develop alternative programs that can be executed, the voter’s frustration and the mounting ambiguities of national policy might also set in motion more extreme tendencies to the political left and the political right. This, again, would represent a condition to which neither our political institutions nor our civic habits are adapted. Once a deep political cleavage develops between opposing groups, each group naturally works to keep it deep. Such groups may gravitate beyond the confines of the American system of government and its democratic institutions.

Assuming a survival of the two-party system in form though not in spirit, even if only one of the diametrically opposite parties comes to flirt with unconstitutional means and ends, the consequences would be serious. For then the constitution-minded electorate would be virtually reduced to a one-party system with no practical alternative to holding to the “safe” party at all cost.

Wow.

There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting measures in opposition to each other. This, in my humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution. -John Adams

There is also this text from the Pew Political Typology of the US in 1999 which I found somewhat funny:

The polling shows more compassion toward the poor and less hostility toward immigrants. A greater percentage in this survey than in the recent past think the government should do more to help needy people, and fewer express strong support for tightening our borders to further restrict immigration. Both of these trends may reflect the increased economic satisfaction and diminished financial pressure registered in this year’s survey. Gains in economic contentment have been greatest among upper income groups, while people in the lowest income category report less financial pressure but no more financial satisfaction than in the mid-1990s. Unexpectedly, despite these trends, Americans report no greater satisfaction with their wages than in the recent past. In fact, middle-income people are less satisfied than they were in 1994.

DAMAGED AND SCUFFED, MY HANDS HAVE BEEN CUFFED, BUT I DON'T PLAN TO GET HUFF, FRANTIC AND PUFF OR PLAN TO GIVE U-

That has aged pretty uniquely if you see it as the immediate effects of neoliberalism.

Anyway, do you have anything to share?

2020 vision: Where will we be within a decade by Telegraph

The world in 2020: A glimpse into the future by Independent

What will life be like 10 years from now by Eric Zorn

10 predictions for the world in january 1st, 2020 by Paul Buchheit

Feel free to put any more predictions you found or comment on these predictions.