We are officially one week away from the Oscar's and all the precursors (being the award shows that happen before the Oscar's) have come and gone. Here's where I think the Oscar's will go on March 10th.

Picture: Oppenheimer

It's a done deal.

Director: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a Fall

After unexpectedly winning the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay it immediately became the front-runner in the category besting previous front-runners The Holdovers and Barbie (which got switched over to Adapted anyway). Having picked up the BAFTA in the same category, it's locked.

Adapted Screenplay: American Fiction

Also having won the BAFTA for Adapted Screenplay, beating out Poor Things and Oppenheimer (which BAFTA loved) this is also pretty clearly the favorite to win here. Two weak winners in a row for this category imo.

Lead Actor: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

This seemed obvious for a long time, but now that he's swept all the awards it's a done deal..

Lead Actress: Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

This is actually a tight race between her and Emma Stone in Poor Things. They both won the Globe and Stone won the BAFTA while Gladstone won SAG. Gladstone wasn't even nominated at BAFTA (despite the jury being there to nominate minorities) which complicated the race. However, with SAG having gone after BAFTA I think that'll have more influence and give Gladstone more momentum. Also, most of the time when SAG gives Best Ensemble to the eventual Picture winner they tend to go 4/4 in the acting categories.

Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer

He swept like Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Supporting Actress: D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Also swept.

Original Score: Oppenheimer

Original Song: What Was I Made For? from Barbie

Sound: Oppenheimer

Production Design: Poor Things

Cinematography: Oppenheimer

Makeup & Hairstyling: Maestro

Costume Design: Barbie

Poor Things won BAFTA, however BAFTA as a whole did not like Barbie very much. And there's too much iconography attached to the film in this category that I think the Oscar's will go for it over Poor Things.

Film Editing: Oppenheimer

Visual Effects: The Creator

After the branch snubbed both Oppenheimer and Poor Things, it muddled the winner in this category. People initially thought Guardians of the Galaxy 3 would be the winner. But there's pretty severe anti-superhero bias in the category. The Creator won at the VFX guild, it's flashy, it looks good, and it's somewhat of a "serious" movie.

Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

This isn't as clear as a race as I thought it would have been. Globes and BAFTA went with Boy and the Heron in this category while Critic's Choice and PGA went with Spider-Verse. The Oscar's usually goes populist in this category (eg they went with Toy Story 4 when Globes and BAFTA went in a more artsy direction). So I'm sticking with Spider-Man here.

Documentary Feature: 20 Days in Mariupol

Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

This would give Wes Anderson his first Oscar win, if the Academy doesn't blue ball him.

Animated Short: Letter to a Pig

Documentary Short: The ABC's of Book Banning

Nominations are coming out on Tuesday. Here's my final predictions on what gets in:

Picture

1. Oppenheimer
2. The Holdovers
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Poor Things
5. Barbie
6. Maestro
7. Anatomy of a Fall
8. Past Lives
9. The Zone of Interest
10. American Fiction

Director

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
4. Justine Triet - Anatomy of a Fall
5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. Maestro
5. May December

Adapted Screenplay

1. Poor Things
2. Barbie
3. Oppenheimer
4. American Fiction
5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Lead Actor

1. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper - Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
5. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon

Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone - Poor Things
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
4. Carey Mulligan - Maestro
5. Margot Robbie - Barbie

Supporting Actor

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
3. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
5. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers

Supporting Actress

1. D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
3. Sandra Huller - The Zone of Interest
4. Penelope Cruz - Ferrari
5. Florence Pugh - Oppenheimer

Film Editing

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barbie
5. The Holdovers

Sound

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Maestro
4. The Zone of Interest
5. Ferrari

Cinematography

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Maestro
5. The Zone of Interest

Costume Design

1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Oppenheimer
5. Napoleon

Production Design

1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Napoleon

Make-up and Hairstyling

1. Oppenheimer
2. Maestro
3. Poor Things
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Golda

Original Score

1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Zone of Interest
5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Original Song

1. I'm Just Ken from Barbie
2. What Was I Made For? from Barbie
3. Dance the Night from Barbie
4. Road to Freedom from Rustin
5. Quiet Eyes from Past Lives

VFX

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
2. The Creator
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
5. Poor Things

Animated Feature

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Elemental
4. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
5. Nimona

Documentary

1. American Symphony
2. 20 Days in Mariupol
3. Four Daughters
4. Beyond Utopia
5. The Eternal Memory

International Film

1. The Zone of Interest
2. Society of Snow
3. Fallen Leaves
4. The Taste of Things
5. Perfect Days

Golden Globe noms will be coming out next week. They recently changed a rule that each category now has six nominees instead of five (boo!). These are the only categories listed on Goldderby so that's all I'm gonna be predicting (Original Score and Original Song are the two categories not listed). Here's where I think the nominations will land:

Motion Picture - Drama

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Maestro
4. All of Us Strangers
5. Anatomy of a Fall
6. Past Lives

Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

1. Barbie
2. The Holdovers
3. Poor Things
4. American Fiction
5. The Color Purple
6. May December

Director

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
4. Greta Gerwig - Barbie
5. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
6. Bradley Cooper - Maestro

Screenplay

1. Barbie
2. The Holdovers
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Poor Things
6. American Fiction

Lead Actor - Drama

1. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
2. Bradley Cooper - Maestro
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Andrew Scott - All of Us Strangers
5. Adam Driver - Ferrari
6. Teo Yoo - Past Lives

Lead Actress - Drama

1. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Cailee Spaeny - Priscilla
3. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
4. Carey Mulligan - Maestro
5. Annette Bening - Nyad
6. Greta Lee - Past Lives

Lead Actor - Musical or Comedy

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
3. Timothee Chalamet - Wonka
4. Nicolas Cage - Dream Scenario
5. Matt Damon - Air
6. Peter Dinklage - She Came To Me

Lead Actress - Musical or Comedy

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Emma Stone - Poor Things
3. Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple
4. Natalie Portman - May December
5. Julia Louis Dreyfus - You Hurt My Feelings
6. Jennifer Lawrence - No Hard Feelings

Supporting Actor - Any Motion Picture:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
3. Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
4. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Charles Melton - May December
6. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers

Supporting Actress:

1. D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
3. Julianne Moore - May December
4. Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
5. Penelope Cruz - Ferrari
6. America Ferrera - Barbie

I just realized I haven't made a full post with Oscar predictions since January (did one for the Globes and one for the Guild). Well now that we're half-way through the year, here's where I think the current Oscar race stands:

Picture:

1. The Holdovers
2. Oppenheimer
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Barbie
6. Past Lives
7. The Zone of Interest
8. The Killer
9. Saltburn
10. Anatomy of a Fall

Director:

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
4. Denis Villenueve - Dune: Part Two
5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay:

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Saltburn
4. Anatomy of a Fall
5. May-December

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Dune: Part Two
5. The Zone of Interest

Lead Actor:

1. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
3. Natalie Portman - May-December
4. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
5. Annette Bening - Nyad

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
4. Jesse Plemmons - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Teo Yoo - Past Lives

Supporting Actress:

1. D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
4. Julianne Moore - May-December
5. Rosamund Pike - Saltburn

Cinematography:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Killer
5. The Zone of Interest

Film Editing:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. The Holdovers
5. The Killer

Sound:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Killer
5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One

Original Score:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Zone of Interest
4. The Killer
5. Past Lives

Original Song:

1. "Dance the Night" from Barbie
2. "Quiet Eyes" from Past Lives
3. "More of Us" from Wish
4. "Gonna be You" from 80 For Brady
5. Original Song from Wonka

Production Design:

1. Barbie
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Wonka

Costume Design:

1. Barbie
2. Oppenheimer
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Wonka
5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Hair and Make-up:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Guaridans of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. Renfield
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

VFX:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Oppenheimer
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Animated Feature:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. How Do You Live?
3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
4. Wish
5. Nimona

For those of you who are new I usually post awards predictions from time to time. Some people seem to like it, at least when it was just a handful of active users.

Anyways these are predictions I currently have for “the guilds” meaning industry awards that are not the Oscar’s. Segmented by different unions. They usually are more populist than the Academy, due to many members being from the TV and commercial world. Whenever there’s an artsy contender that they avoid, the Academy nominates it anyway (Drive My Car, Triangle of Sadness, Phantom Thread being some recent examples that come to mind).

Producers Guild of America Awards (PGA):

1. The Holdovers
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Barbie
6. Past Lives
7. The Zone of Interest
8. The Killer
9. Saltburn
10. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part 1

Directors Guild of America Awards (DGA):

1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
4. Denis Villenueve - Dune: Part Two
5. Greta Gerwig - Barbie

Writers Guild of America Awards (WGA):

Original:

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Saltburn
4. May/December
5. Air

Adapted:

1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Dune: Part Two
5. The Killer

Screen Actor’s Guild Awards (SAG):

Ensemble:

1. The Holdovers
2. Barbie
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Color Purple

Lead Actor:

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Colman Domingo - Rustin
5. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
3. Natalie Portman - May/December
4. Zendaya - Challengers
5. Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
3. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. John Magaro - Past Lives
5. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers

Supporting Actress:

1. D’avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
4. Julianne Moore - May/December
5. Taraji P. Henson - The Color Purple

American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE):

Comedic Editing:

1. Barbie
2. The Holdovers
3. Next Goal Wins
4. Poor Things
5. No Hard Feelings

Dramatic Editing:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Past Lives
5. The Killer

Picture:

1. The Holdovers
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part 2
4. Oppenheimer
5. Past Lives
6. Barbie
7. The Zone of Interest
8. May/December
9. Saltburn
10. The Killer

Director:

1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
4. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part 2
5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay:

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. May/December
4. Saltburn
5. Drive Away Dolls

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part 2
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Zone of Interest

Lead Actor:

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
3. Natalie Portman - May/December
4. Annette Bening - Nyad
5. Zendaya - Challengers

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
4. Jesse Plemmons - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. John Magaro - Past Lives

Supporting Actress:

1. D’avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
4. Julianne Moore - May/December
5. Rosamund Pike - Saltburn

Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once

It swept the guilds. Last movie to do that was Birdman. I don’t even know what would win in its place anymore. All Quiet on the Western Front? Nah that’s missing too many things. EEAAO’s got this in the bag.

Director: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All At Once

DGA winners, next.

Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere All At Once written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

I want to predict Banshees winning at least here. But Three Billboards was a stronger movie (it won Globe Drama, SAG Ensemble, and BAFTA Film) and McDonagh lost to Get Out and EEAAO has way more passion.

Adapted Screenplay: All Quiet on the Western Front screenplay by Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson. Based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque.

BAFTA has been way more accurate at “predicting” the winner in this category than either Critic’s Choice or WGA. Women Talking only has two nominations, was 10th in Picture, and didn’t even get a BAFTA nomination. So I think the stronger movie here will win.

Lead Actor: Austin Butler - Elvis

BAFTA + Globe is a hell of a combo. Fraser would be his biggest competition but the last actor to win for a movie that was not in Picture was Jeff Bridges.

Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett - TÁR

Ditto. Yeoh could win here, but Globe and BAFTA has proved an unbeatable combo in recent years.

Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin

BAFTA winner again. Bassett was a red herring, Curtis would be a weak winner and has been annoyingly campaigning all season. Mark Rylance went on to win the Oscar for Bridge of Spies after only having won BAFTA in a similarly divided field.

Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

He lost BAFTA, but he was the one constant winner in this category. If EEAAO walks away with only one acting award, it’ll be this one.

Animated Feature: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Swept.

International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front

Only Picture nominee.

Documentary: Navalny

PGA + BAFTA winner.

Original Score: All Quiet on the Western Front

Kind of an open category. Babylon won the Globe, but All Quiet won BAFTA. Any of the nominees could potentially win. But I’ll stay safe and stick with the BAFTA winner.

Original Song: Naatu Naatu from RRR

Nobody seems to care about any of the other songs. RRR has the passion. Although I can see the case for any of the other nominees winning.

Sound: Top Gun: Maverick

Locked.

Production Design: Babylon

Swept, locked.

Cinematography: Elvis

It’s the only movie to meet all the statistical requirements. It got nominated at all the precursors. It got a production design nomination. And it won at the cinematographer’s guild. It’s also really colorful and flashy. All Quiet would be the closest competition, but that missed a nomination at the guild. This should be Top Gun’s award, but oh well.

Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis

Swept.

Costume Design: Elvis

Won BAFTA. Black Panther would be its closest competition but that lost at the guild to EEAAO. Elvis fits the stats better (production design nom).

Film Editing: Top Gun: Maverick

EEAAO has so far swept these awards, winning BAFTA, ACE Comedy, and Critic’s Choice. However, there is a strong correlation between sound and film editing. The last film editing winner to win without winning Sound was Argo, which still had sound nominations which EEAAO does not have. The last film editing winner without a sound nomination was Traffik in 2002. EEAAO could buck the trend, as it will be a Picture winner just like Argo. But, I’m sticking with the sound stat. Last year Dune did not win a single film editing award, but it won the Oscar due to the correlation. And Top Gun at least has ACE Drama, which is the only precursor Bohemian Rhapsody had before it went on to win the Oscar.

Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water

Swept.

Animated Short: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and the Horse

Live-Action Short: Le Pupille

Documentary Short: The Elephant Whisperers

This current season is not over yet, but with a new year comes new movies and new awards predictions. These were the early predictions last year. These are earlier however, so let’s see how it goes this time. I’m only doing a few major categories.

Picture

1. The Holdovers
2. Oppenheimer
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Past Lives
6. Maestro
7. Poor Things
8. Blitz
9. May-December
10. The Killer

Director

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two
4. Celine Song - Past Lives
5. Todd Haynes - May-December

Original Screenplay

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Oppenheimer
4. May-December
5. Maestro

Adapted Screenplay

1. Poor Things
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. The Killer
5. Rustin

Lead Actor

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Bradley Cooper - Maestro
3. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress

1. Saoirsa Ronan - Blitz
2. Emma Stone - Poor Things
3. Greta Lee - Past Lives
4. Natalie Portman - May-December
5. Carrie Mulligan - Maestro

pending

Picture

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. The Fabelmans
5. Top Gun: Maverick
6. Elvis
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. The Whale
9. All Quiet on the Western Front
10. Triangle of Sadness

Director

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Todd Field - TÁR
5. Edward Berger - All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Screenplay

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness

Adapted Screenplay

1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. The Whale
3. Living
4. Glass Onion
5. Women Talking

Lead Actor

1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
3. Austin Butler - Elvis
4. Bill Nighy - Living
5. Hugh Jackman - The Son

Lead Actress

1. Cate Blanchett - TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Ana De Armas - Blonde
4. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
5. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Hong Chau - The Whale
5. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness

Best Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
5. Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse

Cinematography

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. The Batman
3. Empire of Light
4. Elvis
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Costume Design

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
5. The Fabelmans

Film Editing

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Elvis
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. TÁR

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Whale
2. Elvis
3. Babylon
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Production Design

1. Babylon
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. The Fabelmans
4. Elvis
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Score

1. Babylon
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. The Fabelmans
4. Pinocchio
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Song

1. Naatu Naatu - RRR
2. Hold My Hand - Top Gun: Maverick
3. Ciao Papa - Pinocchio
4. Applause - Tell it Like a Woman
5. This is a Life - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Sound

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. The Batman
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

VFX

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
4. The Batman
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Animated Feature

1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. Inu-Oh

Documentary

1. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Fire of Love
3. All That Breathes
4. Moonage Daydream
5. Descendant

International Film

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
3. Saint Omer (France)
4. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
5. EO (Poland)

Picture: EEAAO

Director: Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans

Original Screenplay: The Banshees of Inisherin

Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking

Lead Actress: (TIE) Cate Blanchett - Tar and Michelle Yeoh - EEAAO

Lead Actor: Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin

Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan - EEAAO

Ensemble: The Fabelmans

Young Actor: Gabrielle Labelle - The Fabelmans

Comedy: EEAAO

Animated: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

International Film: RRR

Original Song: Naatu Naatu - RRR

Original Score: Babylon

Film Editing: EEAAO

Costumes: Babylon

Production Design: Babylon

Hair and make-up: The Whale

Cinematography: Top Gun: Maverick

Drama: Elvis

Comedy: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Director: Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Screenplay: Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin

Lead Actor - Drama: Austin Butler - Elvis

Lead Actress - Drama: Cate Blanchett - TÁR

Lead Actor - Comedy: Colin Farrell - The Banshees Inisherin

Lead Actress - Comedy: Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin

Original Score: The Banshees of Inisherin

Original Song: Hold My Hand from Top Gun: Maverick

Animated Feature: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front

BAFTA, aka the British Oscar’s recently released a longlist. In recent years BAFTA has moved onto a juried system. This was made in order to make the nominees more diverse (as BAFTA has often been the worst offenders in keeping the nominees white). So if you see some weird nominations from movies you’ve never heard of that’s why.

There are some categories that are not juried: Film and Screenplay being the above-the-line categories to not be juried at all. But the rest are partially juried, meaning the top 3 of normal vote getters get nominated, and the next 3 are juried. Here we go.

Best Film

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Triangle of Sadness

Best Director

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. Aftersun
5. Saint Omer
6. Corsage

Original Screenplay

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness

Adapted Screenplay

1. Living
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
4. Women Talking
5. The Wonder

Lead Actress

1. Cate Blanchett - TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
4. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
5. Lesley Manville - Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
6. Ana De Armas - Blonde

Lead Actor

1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Austin Butler - Elvis
3. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
4. Bill Nighy - Living
5. Paul Mescal - Aftersun
6. Darryl McCormack - Good Luck To You, Leo Grande

Supporting Actress

1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness
4. Aimee Lou Wood - Living
5. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
6. Hong Chau - The Whale

Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Brad Pitt - Babylon
4. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Albert Schuck - All Quiet on the Western Front
6. Michael Ward - Empire of Light

Casting

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Triangle of Sadness
4. Aftersun
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Best British Film

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Living
3. Aftersun
4. Good Luck To You, Leo Grande
5. The Wonder
6. Brian and Charles
7. Mrs Harris Goes To Paris
8. Lady Chatterley’s Lover
9. Blue Jean
10. Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical
11. Emily

2022 post: https://tildes.net/~talk/zus/welcome_to_2022_what_are_your_predictions_for_this_year

2019 post: https://tildes.net/~talk/9fs/what_will_happen_in_2019

HN predictions for 2023: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34125628

Suggestion: Include confidence score for all of your predictions, try to assign a numeric value. This can be super insightful for review time! Thanks @skybrian for the brilliant idea last year.

Let's hear some crazy ones. Who's going to live and die? Which show is going to get cancelled? Will Apple release an iPhone 14? Will the Queen make it to the 22nd century? Will Texas finally secede?

Edit: Quick retrospective, same thread for 2019. Jeez has it been three years already?

Nominations for both the Golden Globes and the Critic’s Choice have been released.

Also, today, the shortlist in many categories has also been released.

Here’s where I think the race is going and, unlike my other lists, I have an explainer for all the predictions.

Picture

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. The Fabelmans
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. Tár
7. Elvis
8. Babylon
9. Women Talking
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Alt: Triangle of Sadness

The top 9 are all pretty clearly happening. Even with mixed-to-negative reviews Babylon is still going to get a lot of below-the-line nominations and one or two acting nominations which would be more than enough to get a Picture nomination. In a similar way to Vice or Don’t Look Up, Babylon is just too big to fail.

Really, the only thing that’s left up to debate is the 10th nominee. There are three contenders for that spot: Glass Onion, Triangle of Sadness, and RRR. I just don’t see a big enough push from critics for RRR to happen, nor do I see much international appeal/acclaim for that film to happen. Triangle of Sadness has a lot of European support (as it won the Palme and the Euro Oscars). However, Glass Onion is my pick. It made a killing in its limited release. It’s going to be extremely popular when it hits Netlfix in a few days, and unlike the first Knives Out, it’s likely to get an acting nomination.

Director:

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Todd Field - Tár

Alt: Joseph Kosinski - Top Gun: Maverick

These seem like an easy five. Chazelle was supposed to be a contender but after he missed at the Globes (who were supposed to love the film) he’s not happening. McDonagh was snubbed in this category five years ago for Three Billboards. But, frankly, Banshees is a stronger contender than that film was. He has a lot of high brow support this time around, which he didn’t last time, which led to Paul Thomas Anderson getting nominated in Phantom Thread. Kosinski I think is getting a DGA nomination, but the director’s branch is known for their high brow taste and Cameron already has the action-adventure movie. Not to mention the directing duo of Daniels having an action movie as well.

Original Screenplay

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Tár
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness

Babylon missed Screenplay at both the Globes and Critic’s Choice. While it’s probably getting a nomination at WGA, it’s dead in this category. There’s really only one other choice here and that’s Triangle of Sadness. It has the support to get it there.

I currently think Banshees is winning as, again, it’s a stronger movie than Three Billboards. EEAAO can still win as Get Out beat McDonagh last time. But I just don’t see it happen. Get Out won more screenplay awards with critics than EEAAO.

Adapted Screenplay

1. Women Talking
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3. Living
4. The Whale
5. Bones and All

The top 3 are locked. The Whale would miss in a stronger year but there isn’t a lot of choice in this category. Bones and All I think makes sense as a passion pick. It won two awards at Venice. I had Pinocchio in this category a little while ago but that’s also dead here. Another possibility is She Said, but no one actually cares about that movie and it’s not the type of thing that gets in as a sole Screenplay nominee. Those usually go to offbeat things like The Lobster.

Lead Actor

1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Austin Butler - Elvis
3. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
4. Bill Nighy - Living
5. Tom Cruise - Top Gun: Maverick

The top 4 are locked. The fifth nominee here is a tough one. Again, not a lot of choice. Hugh Jackman is in a movie no one cares about. Babylon is probably not gonna be strong enough to get its lead into this category. Leaving us with Tom Cruise.

Lead Actress

1. Cate Blanchett - Tár
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Margot Robbie - Babylon
4. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
5. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

I Wanna Dance With Somebody is dead. It has worse reviews than Bohemian Rhapsody, it’s not going to make as much money as BoRap, and Ackie did not get nominations at the Globes or Critic’s Choice.

Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Brad Pitt - Babylon
4. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans

Keoghan has been getting tons of acclaim so him getting in alongside Gleeson for Banshees seems like it’s happening. The only one here I’m not too sure about is Dano who missed out on a nomination at the Globes. I’m not sure who would replace him as of right now though and I think Fabelmans gets more than one acting nomination.

Supporting Actress

1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
5. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness

Outside of Condon, none of these are guaranteed. I think Monae is definitely getting in, especially if Glass Onion is a Picture nominee, but she did miss out on a Globe nomination. Women Talking is either only getting Buckley as an acting nomination or its getting no acting noms. I’m counting on De Leon getting that Euro push which gave Buckley a nomination last year for The Lost Daughter.

Cinematography

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Tár

These seem like an easy top 5. Maybe Empire of Light gets in because of Roger Deakins’s name. But no one cares about it.

Film Editing

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Elvis
5. The Banshees of Inisherin

Fabelmans is probably missing here, so is Babylon. Film Editing is usually reserved either for Top 5 movies or for extremely flashy editing. Fabelmans isn’t flashy and Babylon isn’t going to be strong enough. Top Gun: Maverick is an easy winner in this category alongside other bombastic winners like Ford vs Ferrari and The Bourne Ultimatum.

Sound

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. Babylon
5. Everything Everywhere All At Once

The top 4 seem like they’re happening. The fifth one is more up in the air. The sound branch usually likes nominating Best Picture nominees though and Fabelmans missed the shortlist which is why I have EEAAO in there. Top Gun is an easy winner here again. Plus, there’s a correlation between Film Editing and Sound.

Original Score

1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Women Talking
5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Avatar got snubbed at the Globes, which means it’s probably not happening. It’s also not that flashy of a score and contains kind of milquetoast action movie music. I currently have Fabelmans winning as John Williams is retiring after he finishes up Indiana Jones. However, I don’t think there’s a clear winner here right now.

Original Song

1. "Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick
2. “Ciao Papa” from Pinocchio
3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
4. “Applause” from Tell It Like A Woman
5. “Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water

Naatu Naatu has a lot of passion. Applause is from Diane Warren who gets nominated for her boring documentary songs every year.

Production Design

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Elvis
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Costume Design

1. Babylon
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3. Elvis
4. The Fabelmans
5. Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris

Make-up and Hairstyling

1. The Whale
2. Elvis
3. Babylon
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

VFX

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
4. The Batman
5. Nope

I actually had EEAAO here but it missed the VFX shortlist.

Animated Feature

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes
3. Turning Red
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. Inu-Oh

Pinocchio is the front-runner here, Marcel has a lot of passion amongst hipster types and has been getting in everywhere. Disney’s only real contender in this category is Turning Red. Puss in Boots has been getting in everywhere. Inu-Oh got a Globe nomination but I don’t really know what else would get in there. Kind of a weak year for animated films.

International Film

1. Decision to Leave
2. All Quiet on the Western Front
3. Close
4. Saint Omer
5. The Quiet Girl

Documentary

1. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Moonage Daydream
3. Fire of Love
4. All That Breathes
5. Descendant

Okay that’s all I got for you. I cut out some of the commentary because I feel like I went on too long in the beginning.

Golden Globe nominations come out mid-December. I don’t really see anything changing from here to the end of the year. The only movies left to premiere are Avatar and Babylon. Both of which are almost guaranteed to be good, at the very least. And Avatar is guaranteed to be a huge hit.

Here are my previous predictions for the Globes, and it’s crazy how much things have changed.

The Globes usually have a couple of weird choices and I don’t think many of these will end up with Oscar nominations.

But here’s where I think the winds are blowing.

Motion Picture - Drama:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Women Talking
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. TÁR

Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy:

1. Babylon
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
5. Spirited

Director:

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Damien Chazelle - Babylon
3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Sarah Polley - Women Talking

Screenplay:

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Women Talking
5. Everything Everywhere All At Once

Lead Actor - Drama:

1. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
2. Austin Butler - Elvis
3. Bill Nighy - Living
4. Gabriel LaBelle - The Fabelmans
5. Tom Cruise - Top Gun: Maverick

Lead Actress - Drama:

1. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
2. Naomi Ackie - I Wanna Dance With Somebody
3. Cate Blanchett - TÁR
4. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
5. Jennifer Lawrence - Causeway

Lead Actor - Musical or Comedy:

1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Diego Calva - Babylon
3. Daniel Craig - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
4. Will Ferrell - Spirited
5. George Clooney - Ticket to Paradise

Lead Actress - Musical or Comedy:

1. Margot Robbie - Babylon
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Julia Roberts - Ticket to Paradise
4. Sandra Bullock - The Lost City
5. Lesley Manville - Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Supporting Actor:

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Brad Pitt - Babylon
4. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
5. Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse

Supporting Actress:

1. Jean Smart - Babylon
2. Claire Foy - Women Talking
3. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
5. Hong Chau - The Whale

Original Score:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Women Talking
5. Pinocchio

Original Song:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
2. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. “Ciao Papa” from Pinocchio
5. “Do A Little Good" from Spirited

Animated Feature

1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Strange World
4. My Father’s Dragon
5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Okay, I promise this is the last time I’ll make one of these posts for the rest of the year.

The major fall festivals (TIFF, Telluride, and Venice) happened. So many movies got mediocre reception at these festivals (namely Alejandro Gonzalez Inaritu’s Bardo, Florian Zeller’s The Son, and Sam Mendes’s Empire of Light).

So the race has taken a more serious shape. Here are the old predictions.

Here are the renewed predictions:

Picture:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. The Banshees of Inisherin
6. Women Talking
7. Elvis
8. TAR
9. The Whale
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Alt: Top Gun: Maverick

Director:

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Damien Chazelle - Babylon
3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Todd Field - TAR

DGA Snub: Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin

Lead Actor:

1. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
2. Austin Butler - Elvis
3. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Bill Nighy - Living
5. Hugh Jackman - The Son

Alt: Diego Calva - Babylon

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Babylon
2. Naomi Ackie - I Wanna Dance With Somebody
3. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Cate Blanchett - TAR
5. Olivia Colman - Empire of Light

Alt: Jennifer Lawrence - Causeway

Supporting Actor:

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
4. Brad Pitt - Babylon
5. Ben Wishaw - Women Talking

Alt: Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin

Supporting Actress:

1. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
2. Claire Foy - Women Talking
3. Sadie Sink - The Whale
4. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Alt: Nina Hoss - TAR

Original Screenplay:

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Babylon
4. The Fabelmans
5. TAR

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Women Talking
2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
3. The Whale
4. Living
5. Bones & All

Cinematography:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Empire of Light
5. The Batman

Production Design:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fablemans
4. Elvis
5. Amsterdam

Costume Design

1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Elvis
4. Amsterdam
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hair and Make-up

1. The Whale
2. Elvis
3. The Batman
4. Babylon
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Original Score:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Women Talking
5. Empire of Light

Sound:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Babylon
4. Elvis
5. The Fabelmans

Film Editing:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Elvis

VFX:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
5. The Batman

Drama:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Empire of Light
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. The Whale
5. Women Talking

Musical/Comedy:

1. Babylon
2. Bardo
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Elvis
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Director:

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Damien Chazelle - Babylon
3. Sam Mendes - Empire of Light
4. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
5. Baz Luhrmann - Elvis

Actor - Drama:

1. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
2. Hugh Jackman - The Son
3. Adam Driver - White Noise
4. Bill Nighy - Living
5. Tom Cruise - Top Gun: Maverick

Actress - Drama:

1. Naomie Ackie - I Wanna Dance With Somebody
2. Olivia Colman - Empire of Light
3. Cate Blanchett - TAR
4. Frances McDormand - Women Talking
5. Danielle Deadwyle - Till

Actor - Musical/Comedy:

1. Austin Butler - Elvis
2. Daniel Cacho - Bardo
3. Christian Bale - Amsterdam
4. Daniel Craig - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
5. Billy Eichner - Bros

Actress - Musical/Comedy:

1. Margot Robbie - Babylon
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Margot Robbie - Amsterdam
4. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
5. Sandra Bullock - The Lost City

Supporting Actor:

1. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
2. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Tom Hanks - Elvis
4. Colin Firth - Empire of Light
5. Brad Pitt - Babylon

Supporting Actress:

1. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
2. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
3. Sadie Sink - The Whale
4. Greta Gerwig - White Noise
5. Laura Dern - The Son

Screenplay:

1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Bardo
4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Women Talking

Original Score:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Empire of Light
3. Babylon
4. Women Talking
5. Avatar: The Way of Water

I wouldn’t be doing an update this early on but there were recent news of many movies being delayed to 2023 including Killers of the Flower Moon and Rustin.

Here’s the last one: https://tildes.net/~movies/11ix/early_predictions_for_the_2023_oscars

Picture:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Empire of Light
3. Bardo
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. Babylon
6. The Whale
7. Women Talking
8. Elvis
9. Everything Everywhere All At Once
10. White Noise

Director:

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Sam Mendes - Empire of Light
3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Damien Chazelle - Babylon
5. Alejandro G Innaritu - Bardo

Original Screenplay:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. Empire of Light
4. Bardo
5. Everything Everywhere All At Once

Adapted Screenplay

1. White Noise
2. Women Talking
3. The Whale
4. The Son
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Lead Actor:

1. Austin Butler - Elvis
2. Adam Driver - White Noise
3. Daniel Cacho - Bardo
4. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
5. Hugh Jackman - The Son

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Babylon
2. Cate Blanchett - TAR
3. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Olivia Colman - Empire of Light
5. Naomie Ackie - I Wanna Dance With Somebody

Supporting Actor:

1. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
2. Seth Rogen - The Fabelmans
3. Ben Wishaw - Women Talking
4. Colin Firth - Empire of Light
5. Brad Pitt - Babylon

Supporting Actress:

1. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
2. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
3. Sadie Sink - The Whale
4. Laura Dern - The Son
5. Greta Gerwig - White Noise

Animated Feature:

1. Strange World
2. My Father's Dragon
3. Turning Red
4. Pinnochio
5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Best Original Score:

1. The Fabelmans
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Women Talking
4. Babylon
5. Empire of Light

Best Sound:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Elvis
4. Babylon
5. Bardo

Best Production Design:

1. Babylon
2. Amsterdam
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Empire of Light
5. Elvis

Best Cinematography:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Bardo
3. Babylon
4. Empire of Light
5. The Fabelmans

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

1. Elvis
2. The Whale
3. White Noise
4. Babylon
5. The Batman

Best Costume Design:

1. Elvis
2. Amsterdam
3. Babylon
4. Empire of Light
5. The Fabelmans

Best Film Editing:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Everything Everywhere All At Once
5. Elvis

Best Visual Effects:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
4. The Batman
5. Everything Everywhere All At Once

It’s the summer movie season, which means that Oscar season is right around the corner. Here are my current predictions for what gets nominated. Not everything will end up happening, last year I had The Last Duel making several categories and it ended up getting blanked. You can see my previous relatively early predictions here

The Cannes Film Festival happened and it was a total bust. Doesn’t seem like there will be a Cannes breakout this year like last year’s Drive My Car.

Picture:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Empire of Light
3. The Fabelmans
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
5. Babylon
6. The Whale
7. Poor Things
8. Women Talking
9. Elvis
10. Thirteen Lives

Director:

1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Sam Mendes - Empire of Light
3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Damien Chazelle - Babylon
5. Sarah Polley - Women Talking

Original Screenplay:

1. Empire of Light
2. Babylon
3. The Fabelmans
4. Thirteen Lives
5. TAR

Adapted Screenplay

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Poor Things
3. Women Talking
4. The Whale
5. The Son

Lead Actor:

1. Austin Butler - Elvis
2. Hugh Jackman - The Son
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Babylon
2. Cate Blanchett - TAR
3. Emma Stone - Poor Things
4. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Olivia Colman - Empire of Light

Supporting Actor:

1. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ben Wishaw - Women Talking
4. Colin Firth - Empire of Light
5. Brad Pitt - Babylon

Supporting Actress:

1. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
2. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
3. Sadie Sink - The Whale
4. Laura Dern - The Son
5. Jean Smart - Babylon

Animated Feature:

1. Lightyear
2. Strange World
3. Turning Red
4. Pinnochio
5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Best Original Score:

1. Empire of Light
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Women Talking
4. Babylon
5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Original Song:

1. Hold My Hands by Lady Gaga from Top Gun: Maverick
2. Carolina by Taylor Swift from Where The Crawdad Sing?
3. Nobody Like U by Billie Eillish and Finneas from Turning Red
4. On My Way by Jennifer Lopez from Marry Me
5. Vegas by Doja Cat from Elvis (might be ineligible)

Best Sound:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Babylon
5. Thirteen Lives

Best Production Design:

1. Babylon
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Avatar: The Way of Water
4. Empire of Light
5. Elvis

Best Cinematography:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Babylon
4. Empire of Light
5. Poor Things

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

1. The Batman
2. Elvis
3. The Whale
4. Babylon
5. Poor Things

Best Costume Design:

1. Poor Things
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Babylon
4. Empire of Light
5. Elvis

Best Film Editing:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Babylon
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Thirteen Lives
5. Elvis

Best Visual Effects:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
4. The Batman
5. Thirteen Lives

How do you see the next 5 years playing out, politically, economically, socially, militarily? In areas that hit closest to you? I feel I'm not confident in making a forecast more specific than “nothing good will happen." And yet I have to make huge decisions about where to live and work.

I might end up switching things around but these seem pretty solid.

Best Picture: CODA

Best Director: Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog

Best Lead Actor: Will Smith - King Richard

Best Lead Actress: Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur - CODA

Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose - West Side Story

Best Original Screenplay: Don't Look Up. Story by Adam McKay and David Sirota. Screenplay by Adam Mckay.

Best Adapted Screenplay: CODA. Screenplay by Sian Heder. Based on the motion picture La Famille Bélier

Best Cinematography: Dune

Best Costume Design: Cruella

Best Film Editing: Dune (Edit: I switched to King Richard)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Production Design: Dune

Best Original Score: Dune

Best Original Song: No Time To Die

Best Sound: Dune

Best Visual Effects: Dune

Best Animated Feature: Encanto

Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul

Best International Film: Drive My Car

Best Animated Short: Robin Robin

Beat Documentary Short: The Queen of Basketball (Edit: Switched to Audible)

Best Live Action Short: The Long Goodbye

Okay, I’ve been bombarding all of you with article after article of what other award shows have been nominating and awarding.

Here are the nominations for what I had in November. It’s interesting to see how much has changed, sadly it seems like The Last Duel is going to end up with zero awards.

Anyways, if you have an Oscar pool going what I’m about to give you would probably put you at the top if your friends don’t follow awards. I did place 30 out of 2200 on Goldderby for my BAFTA nomination predictions so there’s that.

Here’s what I have, in order of what is most likely to win as of right now:

Best Picture

1. The Power of the Dog
2. Belfast
3. Licorice Pizza
4. Dune
5. Don’t Look Up
6. West Side Story
7. King Richard
8. CODA
9. tick, tick... BOOM!
10. Being the Ricardos

Alternative choice: House of Gucci

Best Director

1. Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
2. Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza
3. Denis Villeneuve - Dune
4. Kenneth Branagh - Belfast
5. Steven Spielberg - West Side Story

Alternative choice: Adam McKay - Don’t Look Up

Best Lead Actor

1. Will Smith - King Richard
2. Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
3. Andrew Garfield - tick, tick... BOOM!
4. Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth
5. Leonardo DiCaprio - Don’t Look Up

Alternative choice: Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos

Best Lead Actress

1. Lady Gaga - House of Gucci
2. Alana Haim - Licorice Pizza
3. Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos
4. Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
5. Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter

Alternative choice: Rachel Zegler - West Side Story

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kodi Smit-Mcphee - The Power of the Dog
2. Ciaran Hinds - Belfast
3. Troy Kotsure - CODA
4. Bradley Cooper - Licorice Pizza
5. Jared Leto - House of Gucci

Alternative choice: Jamie Dornan - Belfast

Best Supporting Actress

1. Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
2. Aunjuane Ellis - King Richard
3. Caitriona Balfe - Belfast
4. Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog
5. Cate Blanchett - Don’t Look Up

Note: I’m actually taking a big risk in predicting Blanchett, Ruth Negga - Passing seems to be the most obvious fifth choice.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Licorice Pizza
2. Belfast
3. Don’t Look Up
4. King Richard
5. Being the Ricardos

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Power of the Dog
2. CODA
3. Dune
4. The Lost Daughter
5. West Side Story

Alternative choice: tick, tick... BOOM!

Best Cinematography

1. Dune
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth
3. The Power of the Dog
4. West Side Story
5. Belfast

Alternative choice: Nightmare Alley

Best Film Editing

1. Dune
2. Belfast
3. Licorice Pizza
4. The Power of the Dog
5. West Side Story

Alternative choice: Don’t Look Up

Best Costume Design

1. Cruella
2. Dune
3. West Side Story
4. House of Gucci
5. Nightmare Alley

Alt: Cyrano

Best Hair and Makeup

1. House of Gucci
2. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
3. Dune
4. Cruella
5. Coming 2 America

Alt: Cyrano

Best Production Design

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Nightmare Alley
5. The French Dispatch

Alt: Licorice Pizza

Best Original Score

1. Dune
2. The Power of the Dog
3. Don’t Look Up
4. The French Dispatch
5. Encanto

Alt: Being the Ricardos

Best Original Song

1. No Time To Die from No Time To Die
2. Dos Oruguitas from Encanto
3. Just Look Up from Don’t Look Up
4. Be Alive from King Richard
5. Down to Joy from Belfast

Alt: Guns Go Bang from The Harder They Fall

Best Sound

1. Dune
2. West Side Story
3. No Time To Die
4. The Power of the Dog
5. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Alt: A Quiet Place Part II

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune
2. Spider-Man: No Way Home
3. No Time To Die
4. Godzilla vs Kong
5. The Matrix: Resurrections

Alt: Shang-Chi and the legend of the Ten Rings.

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto
2. Flee
3. Luca
4. The Mitchell’s vs the Machines
5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Alt: Belle

Best Documentary Feature

1. Summer of Soul
2. Flee
3. The Rescue
4. Procession
5. Ascension

Best International Feature

1. Drive My Car
2. The Hand of God
3. Flee
4. A Hero
5. The Worst Person in the World

And those are all the categories. Oscar nominations will be announced on the 8th and of course I will be posting them.

I know that there aren’t a lot of film buffs here, and that a lot of you don’t care about awards. I love awards. The oscars are actually a really important thing that got me watching more interesting movies. And I make it a point to watch all the Best Picture nominees every year.

I spend a lot of time on trying to predict what will get nominated and will win at the Oscars. I’m pretty okay at it. I average about a 76% correctly predicting what gets nominated and an 80% what wins. Things change as more award shows happen. And the closer we get to the Oscars.

But, I wanted to share with y’all what I thought would get nominated at the Oscars this coming year.

In no specific order:

Best Picture:

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

The Last Duel

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

Belfast

West Side Story

Dune

Being the Ricardos

House of Gucci

Best Director:

Adam McKay - Don’t Look Up

Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh - Belfast

Ridley Scott - The Last Duel

Denis Villeneuve - Dune

Best Lead Actress:

Jodie Comer - The Last Duel

Jennifer Lawrence - Don’t Look Up

Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers

Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos

Lady Gaga - House of Gucci

Best Lead Actor:

Will Smith - King Richard

Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog

Leonardo DiCaprio - Don’t Look Up

Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos

Adam Driver - The Last Duel

Best Supporting Actress:

Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog

Ariana DeBose - West Side Story

Meryl Streep - Don’t Look Up

Aunjaune Ellis - King Richard

Caitriona Balfe - Belfast

Best Supporting Actor:

Jamie Dornan - Belfast

Bradley Cooper - Licorice Pizza

Mark Rylance - Don’t Look Up

Jared Leto - House of Gucci

Jon Bernthal - King Richard

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Power of the Dog

The Last Duel

House of Gucci

Dune

West Side Story

Best Original Screenplay:

Belfast

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

Being the Ricardos

Best Cinematography:

Dune

West Side Story

Licorice Pizza

The Last Duel

The Power of the Dog

Best Costume Design:

House of Gucci

The Last Duel

West Side Story

Dune

Being the Ricardos

Hair and Makeup:

House of Gucci

Being the Ricardos

King Richard

Dune

West Side Story

Best Production Design:

Licorice Pizza

The Last Duel

Dune

West Side Story

Belfast

Best Sound:

Don’t Look Up

West Side Story

Dune

No Time To Die

The Last Duel

Best Original Score:

Dune

The Power of the Dog

The Last Duel

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

Best Original Song:

No Time To Die from No Time To Die

Be Alive from King Richard

Down to Joy from Belfast

Dos Oruguitas from Encanto

Just Look Up from Don’t Look Up

Best Film Editing:

Don’t Look Up

King Richard

The Last Duel

Dune

Belfast

Best Visual Effects:

Black Widow

Spider-Man: No Way Home

Dune

No Time To Die

Don’t Look Up

That’s what I have for now.

If this list is worth anything, it’s to let you guys know what films have a lot of buzz. The only films I think are certain of getting a Best Picture nomination are Belfast, King Richard, The Power of the Dog, and Don’t Look Up.

If you haven’t watch Belfast or King Richard as of yet, I highly recommend checking them out.

This is a pretty open-ended question, can be about politics, business, technology, culture, most things really. Only requirement is that what you thought was gonna happen actually happened because obviously there is a lot of stuff that will happen in the future if problems keep being dismissed by dumb people.

If my title is not clear, someone claiming letting social media be run by the same ads that run television is a recipe for disaster in 2010 is someone ahead of the curve (by a lot, obviously).

In my case, a teacher once asked me to write a satire paper/ficticious news article or something, I wrote about anti-democracy protests in Brazil. 2-3 years later, there were anti democracy protests, although most of the details were either missed or wrong.

I have these 2 quotes here. This quote is apparently from this book, cited in this article:

If the two parties do not develop alternative programs that can be executed, the voter’s frustration and the mounting ambiguities of national policy might also set in motion more extreme tendencies to the political left and the political right. This, again, would represent a condition to which neither our political institutions nor our civic habits are adapted. Once a deep political cleavage develops between opposing groups, each group naturally works to keep it deep. Such groups may gravitate beyond the confines of the American system of government and its democratic institutions.

Assuming a survival of the two-party system in form though not in spirit, even if only one of the diametrically opposite parties comes to flirt with unconstitutional means and ends, the consequences would be serious. For then the constitution-minded electorate would be virtually reduced to a one-party system with no practical alternative to holding to the “safe” party at all cost.

Wow.

There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting measures in opposition to each other. This, in my humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution. -John Adams

There is also this text from the Pew Political Typology of the US in 1999 which I found somewhat funny:

The polling shows more compassion toward the poor and less hostility toward immigrants. A greater percentage in this survey than in the recent past think the government should do more to help needy people, and fewer express strong support for tightening our borders to further restrict immigration. Both of these trends may reflect the increased economic satisfaction and diminished financial pressure registered in this year’s survey. Gains in economic contentment have been greatest among upper income groups, while people in the lowest income category report less financial pressure but no more financial satisfaction than in the mid-1990s. Unexpectedly, despite these trends, Americans report no greater satisfaction with their wages than in the recent past. In fact, middle-income people are less satisfied than they were in 1994.

DAMAGED AND SCUFFED, MY HANDS HAVE BEEN CUFFED, BUT I DON'T PLAN TO GET HUFF, FRANTIC AND PUFF OR PLAN TO GIVE U-

That has aged pretty uniquely if you see it as the immediate effects of neoliberalism.

Anyway, do you have anything to share?

2020 vision: Where will we be within a decade by Telegraph

The world in 2020: A glimpse into the future by Independent

What will life be like 10 years from now by Eric Zorn

10 predictions for the world in january 1st, 2020 by Paul Buchheit

Feel free to put any more predictions you found or comment on these predictions.