22 votes

Welcome to 2022. What are your predictions for this year?

Let's hear some crazy ones. Who's going to live and die? Which show is going to get cancelled? Will Apple release an iPhone 14? Will the Queen make it to the 22nd century? Will Texas finally secede?

Edit: Quick retrospective, same thread for 2019. Jeez has it been three years already?

24 comments

  1. [4]
    stu2b50
    Link
    I might go back and edit in some more, hard to think of a bunch off the top of my head COVID There will be a new variant of concern that becomes a majority of new infections (80%) It will not...

    I might go back and edit in some more, hard to think of a bunch off the top of my head

    COVID

    • There will be a new variant of concern that becomes a majority of new infections (80%)

    • It will not "end" - as in, we'll still be talking about it, there'll still be various degrees of safety measures, and so forth (99%)

    • Schools will not be online (60%)

    • US vaccination rate will effectively be ~20% or so lower as the original immunoresponse grows weaker and each booster gets less uptake (so US adult vaccination rate is at about 63%, I expect the somewhat-up-to-date booster rate to be 40% of adults) - 70%

    • Pfizer and other pharmaceuticals halve the reported mortality rate in the second half of 2022 (50%)

    Tech

    • GPUs prices remain high (80%)

    • Crypto will have market dips of up to 40% throughout the year but will remain around where it started (70%)

    • Nintendo Switch "Pro" comes out (50%)

    • PS5s remain difficult to buy (60%)

    • Ethereum will not be on proof of stake (80%)

    • An ARM Mac Pro will come out that will have the highest synthetic GPU scores of any consumer part (70%)

    • Electric versions of economy sedans like Corollas/Civics come out (50%)

    etc.

    • Republicans win one of the houses of congress (80%)

    • Republicans win both of the houses of congress (60%)

    • Student loan repayments do not restart in 2022 (50%)

    • S&P500 is up in 2022 (80%)

    • S&P500 is up 30-40% in 2022 (50%)

    • Amazon expands into the real estate market via rentals (40%)

    • The Queen of England will not die in 2022 (60%)

    15 votes
    1. HotPants
      Link Parent
      This is an incredibly bold yet interesting prediction. I think this has actually happened 30-40 times in the last 140 years. Yet currently SPY Leaps are pricing this probability as less than three...

      S&P500 is up 30-40% in 2022 (50%)

      This is an incredibly bold yet interesting prediction.

      I think this has actually happened 30-40 times in the last 140 years.

      Yet currently SPY Leaps are pricing this probability as less than three percent (SPY $620 call with expiration in Jan 2023 can be had for under a dollar)

      The Queen of England will not die in 2022 (60%)

      According to actuarial tables, it's closer to 80%

      3 votes
    2. [2]
      suspended
      Link Parent
      I'm at 50% for this one. 75% for me. 75% for me again. Difficult as in price too high? I didn't have any trouble getting it though I paid almost double MSRP.

      There will be a new variant of concern that becomes a majority of new infections (80%)

      I'm at 50% for this one.

      Schools will not be online (60%)

      75% for me.

      Pfizer and other pharmaceuticals halve the reported mortality rate in the second half of 2022 (50%)

      75% for me again.

      PS5s remain difficult to buy (60%)

      Difficult as in price too high? I didn't have any trouble getting it though I paid almost double MSRP.

      1 vote
      1. AugustusFerdinand
        Link Parent
        I'd guess difficult to buy defined as not through the usual retail channels. I don't think best buy is doing dealer markups like dealerships are with cars.

        Difficult as in price too high? I didn't have any trouble getting it though I paid almost double MSRP.

        I'd guess difficult to buy defined as not through the usual retail channels. I don't think best buy is doing dealer markups like dealerships are with cars.

        3 votes
  2. skybrian
    Link
    I'll post some predictions later, but a suggestion is that you put a probability on your predictions, like if you're 70% or 90% confident or whatever. Then we can check back next year to see how...

    I'll post some predictions later, but a suggestion is that you put a probability on your predictions, like if you're 70% or 90% confident or whatever. Then we can check back next year to see how we did.

    12 votes
  3. 3_3_2_LA
    Link
    I will eat a sandwich at The Bird in SF (8%); it’s always closed or something when I visit lol

    I will eat a sandwich at The Bird in SF (8%); it’s always closed or something when I visit lol

    8 votes
  4. [3]
    Adys
    Link
    This post was inspired by this one on the r/france subreddit. I've put my own deathlist predictions on it, but wanted to open it up to more. Here are mine: Donald Trump Colin Baker Jean-Marie Le...

    This post was inspired by this one on the r/france subreddit. I've put my own deathlist predictions on it, but wanted to open it up to more. Here are mine:

    • Donald Trump
    • Colin Baker
    • Jean-Marie Le Pen
    • Warren Buffet
    • Hayao Miyazaki
    • The Queen

    And for the more outlandish ones ("he knew something we didn't"): One of Justin Bieber, Jack Dorsey, or The Simpsons either dies or gets cancelled.

    7 votes
    1. [2]
      moocow1452
      Link Parent
      Cancelled as in the show gets canned, or Twitter Cancelled? Because I'd take that bet on all three.

      Cancelled as in the show gets canned, or Twitter Cancelled? Because I'd take that bet on all three.

      4 votes
      1. Adys
        Link Parent
        Right? That's the fun part, it works both ways!

        Right? That's the fun part, it works both ways!

        5 votes
  5. [2]
    Seven
    Link
    My two predictions I can think of right now: The Queen will die before April (70% sure) Crypto/NFT bubble will burst around november and december (40% sure)

    My two predictions I can think of right now:

    The Queen will die before April (70% sure)

    Crypto/NFT bubble will burst around november and december (40% sure)

    6 votes
    1. Tardigrade
      Link Parent
      More chaotic would be her dying on April 1st

      More chaotic would be her dying on April 1st

      4 votes
  6. admicos
    (edited )
    Link
    Covid will look like it's decreasing near the middle of the year, and because of that people will think it's OK to do things, which will make covid rise again. The non-human consequences of covid...
    • Covid will look like it's decreasing near the middle of the year, and because of that people will think it's OK to do things, which will make covid rise again.
    • The non-human consequences of covid (tech shortages, for example) will continue at least until the last quarter of the year. (Even if covid """stops""")
    • TRY's value will continue to fall (sadly), maybe ending up stable at around 1USD=15TRY near the end of the year, probably higher

    Those are the "serious" ones, the following ones are less serious

    • A very big scam is going to happen on the cryptocurrency sphere (100%, free space)
    • Elon Musk will say something stupid (100%, free space)
    • Steam Deck released, a majority of people will install Windows on theirs to play their anti-cheat enabled games (70%)
      • Even the people who don't ""do computers"", probably following a guide off of YouTube
        • Some people will brick their Steam Deck as a result of bad YouTube guides (70%)
    • Year of the Wayland desktop (40%)
    • Matrix's Synapse will remain a big resource hog (60%), Dendrite will continue to not work (10%)
      • Prosody (XMPP) will continue to work just fine (95%)
      • All other Matrix servers will stay as alphas or betas with missing features. (50%)
    • Signal will do some more cryptocurrency adjacent bullshit (80%)
    • Discord will act upon their cryptocurrency bullshit and suddenly release it with no announcements (70%), this will lessen any backlash that might happen (60%)
    • Reddit will act upon their cryptocurrency bullshit (80%), nothing major will happen to them (95%)
    • A new web browser will be announced (40%), will use Chromium or WebKit (75%).
    • Mozilla will do more bad decisions (65%)
    • There will still not be any way to embed Gecko as a widget outside of Firefox (95%), except for Android's GeckoView
    • April 1st will be mostly uneventful (75%)

    and maybe more if i can think of them

    6 votes
  7. [3]
    cloud_loud
    (edited )
    Link
    I think the pandemic becomes an endemic within the first four months of the year. Restrictions start to ease up again, masking becomes optional, restaurant and other venues start going back to...

    I think the pandemic becomes an endemic within the first four months of the year. Restrictions start to ease up again, masking becomes optional, restaurant and other venues start going back to full capacity (those that weren’t doing it already at least).

    Republicans take back both the house and the senate. More information comes out about how disorganized Kamala Harris and her staff are, and how she’s really not up to the task of being president. Her popularity among the Democratic Party declines significantly. This forces her to step aside from the 2024 Democratic primary. At the end of the year one of the members of the Squad announces that they will be running for President.

    Movie theaters start going back to normal, making close to the amount of money that they made in 2019 but adult dramas continue to underperform. Avatar 2 becomes the highest grossing movie worldwide (of 2022) but domestically Black Panther: Wakanda Forever grosses more.

    Edit: Just wanted to add one more thing. Marvel announces the next Avengers film for 2027-2030 with Jon Watts set to direct.

    5 votes
    1. [2]
      moocow1452
      Link Parent
      Double or nothing on it being Young Avengers? Or is that the easy money?

      Marvel announces the next Avengers film for 2027-2030 with Jon Watts set to direct.

      Double or nothing on it being Young Avengers? Or is that the easy money?

      1. cloud_loud
        Link Parent
        Might be easy money. With the introductions of Florence Pugh, Hailee Steinfeld, and Ms Marvel next year it certainly makes sense. Though I’d still think Doctor Strange, the new Captain America,...

        Might be easy money. With the introductions of Florence Pugh, Hailee Steinfeld, and Ms Marvel next year it certainly makes sense.

        Though I’d still think Doctor Strange, the new Captain America, Captain Marvel, Hulk, and Thor will make appearances (unless Natalie Portman takes over the role in Love and Thunder). Might be like an intermediary sort of thing where we’re introduced to young avengers.

  8. [3]
    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link
    COVID By the end of March, US cases will drop below 50,000 per day. (60%) US death rate won't exceed 1000/day during the last half of the year. (60%) For both of those I mean seven-day averages....

    COVID

    • By the end of March, US cases will drop below 50,000 per day. (60%)
    • US death rate won't exceed 1000/day during the last half of the year. (60%)
      For both of those I mean seven-day averages.

    Economy

    • US Inflation will average below 4% for the last half of the year. (60%)

    Tech

    • Waymo won't expand driverless car rides to more than one more region this year. (60%)
    • There will be a new AI demo as impressive as AlphaGo or GPT-3 in an unexpected field this year. (80%) Need to make this less ambiguous.

    Weather

    • There will be severe wildfires in California this year (80%) I need to make this less ambiguous.

    Personal

    • My wife and I will cross an international border this year. (70%)
    • ...to somewhere other than Canada (30%)
    • I will buy another accordion (60%)
    3 votes
    1. [2]
      HotPants
      Link Parent
      Given that seems entirely within your control, why 60%? Either buy another accordion, or do not buy another accordion, there is no 60%.

      I will buy another accordion (60%)

      Given that seems entirely within your control, why 60%?

      Either buy another accordion, or do not buy another accordion, there is no 60%.

      4 votes
      1. skybrian
        Link Parent
        It depends on whether I see one I really want to buy, and whether I decide to continue learning chromatic button accordion or stick with piano accordion, and on good health. I had neck and...

        It depends on whether I see one I really want to buy, and whether I decide to continue learning chromatic button accordion or stick with piano accordion, and on good health. I had neck and shoulder issues in 2021 so I stopped playing for a while.

        3 votes
  9. [3]
    Omnicrola
    Link
    COVID 3 more variants of concern will emerge (80%) All new variants will be more infectious and have a lower mortality rate (95%) At least 2 vaccines will be updated to target variants ala the...

    COVID

    • 3 more variants of concern will emerge (80%)
    • All new variants will be more infectious and have a lower mortality rate (95%)
    • At least 2 vaccines will be updated to target variants ala the annual flu vaccine (75%)

    Economy

    • Student loan interest will be deferred repeatedly and kicked into 2023 (80%)
    • Housing prices will continue to increase, though the rate will slow a bit (75%)
    • Inflation will continue at approximately it's current rate (50%)

    Civics

    • The Republicans will retake one house of Congress (90%)
    • Biden's approval rating will remain historically low (75%)

    Tech

    • The "metaverse" continues to get hyped, but nothing tangible actually emerges (80%)
    • A new Oculus headset is announced (50%)
    • Apple announces their own VR headset (75%)
    3 votes
    1. [2]
      teaearlgraycold
      Link Parent
      That’s weird to me. Compared to the wild shit from the last administration I consider Biden a success as long as he’s not selling snake oil and spurring on failed coups. I can’t say I’m...

      Biden's approval rating will remain historically low

      That’s weird to me. Compared to the wild shit from the last administration I consider Biden a success as long as he’s not selling snake oil and spurring on failed coups. I can’t say I’m tremendously happy with him but I’ll always “approve” if he keeps up his not being Trump. I would have thought many others (obviously not Trump supporters) would feel the same way.

      7 votes
      1. Omnicrola
        Link Parent
        Oh I agree. Both that it's weird, and that I'm generally pretty OK with him, given the shenanigans of the previous administration. But I think the long-unfolding economic fallout from the pandemic...

        Oh I agree. Both that it's weird, and that I'm generally pretty OK with him, given the shenanigans of the previous administration.

        But I think the long-unfolding economic fallout from the pandemic will get hung on his shoulders, and negatively impact his rating. Even though there's not a whole lot he can do about it in the short term, aside from trying to make it not as bad as it could have been.

        6 votes
  10. [3]
    HotPants
    (edited )
    Link
    80%: Inflation causes rates to rise, but rates remain below inflation. Economy ticks onwards and upwards. Ninja Edit: 3 Month is between 1.5%-2.5%, 10 year is between 2.5%-3.5%, and 30 year...

    80%: Inflation causes rates to rise, but rates remain below inflation. Economy ticks onwards and upwards. Ninja Edit: 3 Month is between 1.5%-2.5%, 10 year is between 2.5%-3.5%, and 30 year mortgage is 3.5%-4.5%.

    40%: Inflation causes rates to rise. Rates rise above inflation. Yield inverts briefly. Stocks react badly but may seem to recover. Recession occurs in 2023-2024.

    20%: Inflation causes rates to rise. Rates rise above inflation. Yield stays inverted until inflation is under control. Crypto-coins & NFTs lose 80%+. Hypergrowth mid cap tech stocks lose 50-80% of their value across the board. Recession occurs in 2022. Stock market starts a downward trend. Housing starts a downward trend. It's looking like a clean sweep for the Republicans in 2024.

    2%: Inflation causes rates to rise. Rates rise above inflation. Yield stays inverted until inflation is under control. Crypto-coins & NFTs lose 80%+. Hypergrowth mid cap tech stocks lose 50-80% of their value across the board. The economic tide goes out and we discover a major part of the economy has been swimming naked. Due to rapidly rising costs of governmental loans, Republicans shut down the government until Democrats "balance the books." The Fed tries to step in, but turns an inflationairy spike into a deflationairy spiral. Civil unrest becomes extremely violent.

    Edit 1/8/22: Separate from the above: Bitcoin trades under $12,000 USD, an 80% reduction from the all time high. (80%)

    2 votes
    1. [2]
      skybrian
      Link Parent
      I don't know if you're serious about coming back to these, but I think they will be hard to grade. Also, when you have multi-part predictions, all the parts need to come true, so simpler ones are...

      I don't know if you're serious about coming back to these, but I think they will be hard to grade. Also, when you have multi-part predictions, all the parts need to come true, so simpler ones are both easier to grade and more likely to happen.

      1 vote
      1. HotPants
        Link Parent
        Yeah, it's not the most interesting prediction.... Another way to put it would be.... Rates stay historically low in the next year (20%) Rates rise back to historical levels in the next year,...

        Yeah, it's not the most interesting prediction....

        Another way to put it would be....

        Rates stay historically low in the next year (20%)

        Rates rise back to historical levels in the next year, yield does not invert, and the economy is fine (40%)

        Rates rise back to or above historical levels in the next year, yield inverts, and the economy is fine in 2022 (20%)

        Rates go above historical levels in the next year, yield inverts, and the economy is not fine in 2022 (20%)

        2 votes