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What are your predictions for 2026?
Thought I'd post the thread this year as I haven't seen it pop up yet.
It's been an eventful 2025, and we certainly live in some interesting times. If you made predictions for this year, how did they turn out? What are your predictions for the next year?
Looking at last year's predictions, here are some of the good ones IMO
@OBLIVIATER
@kingofsnake
@X08
@EarlyWords
@DynamoSunshirt
At this point, this is like predicting it's going to rain some day next year. This is guaranteed unless there is a fluke. I can also make this prediction for 2026, and if it's not the case, I'll double my bet that summer 2027 will.
Ahh - I love this. Looking forward to weighing in on the 2026 predictions!
I'm anticipating @moocow1452's 2026 pre/review
Re:trudeau. I don't think many Canadians could have predicted a near majority for the liberals in just 1 years time.
I actually had a bingo board made with my brother about what was going to happen this year and next. I don't think either of us are getting it this year barring some major geopolitical events. I'll make my own post if you all want when I have a minute. But for what you all came here for?
2025 Review
2026 Preview
• A wormhole portal is discovered deep below the Nevada desert that leads to an abandoned Martian city. (Doom)
• Metropolis' workers and industrialists are united, following the revelation that noted inventor Rotwang intended to seize control of the city himself, using his robotic automaton to sow discord among the populace. (Metropolis)
• Humanity prepares their last stand against Caesar and his forces despite efforts and gestures towards cohabitation. (Rise of the Planet of the Apes)
• Former Secretary of State and noted critic of the Avengers, Thaddeus Ross, wins the 2026 US Presidential election despite backing the controversial Sokovia Accords and oppositional claims that his anti-vigilante policies are a direct cause of the five year Blip. (Captain America: Brave New World)
• Foundational text of Earthseed religion by Lauren Olamina is written in response to a hyper-nationalistic and fundamentally unequal culture. (Parable of the Sower)
• Global Thermonuclear War doesn't impact home automation trends. (There Will Come Soft Rains)
Self driving cars haven't yet been rolled out in snowy territory I believe.
Not for live public rides, but Waymo has "tens of thousands of miles" in snow. I don't think it will be far away.
https://waymo.com/blog/2025/10/creating-an-all-weather-driver
I know they are actively lobbying in BC to drive here, and we get our fair share of snow every year.
Vancouver doesn't hardly snow tho, all they have to do is skip 5 days of the year. Or start with Richmond's basically 0 days of snow
Interesting.
I'm not arguing that they would necessarily be worse than human drivers at snow and ice, but in the event of a collision, the corporation is a rich juicy target for liability and compensation. We'll see how well they do.
Isn't Wyamo only in like a few cities? I don't pay attention to any of that, so I'm unaware
Trump trips on the stairs leading into Air Force One.
A war experiences a major escalation involving neighboring countries.
Botswana wins a major sporting event.
A token C-list figure is arrested in connection with the Epstein files, but then Epstein returns to mostly meme status.
Elon Musk reveals he is actually a time traveler. A few days later he admits he traveled from the past, not the future. He quickly proceeds to claim he was joking about the whole thing.
Taylor Swift enters an experimental phase after she releases an all-glockenspiel album.
Major scandal involving inappropriate actions behind-the-scenes of a Netflix production.
A new social media site whose core functionality is heavily AI powered is launched by a major figure/company in a billion-dollar campaign. It fails to meet investor expectations, but finds a very devout core audience.
An animal escapes from a zoo and evades recapture shockingly long. It becomes a major news story and many claim it was a distraction from some political event.
A massive meteor hits Earth and we all die.
...Some of these might be long-shots.
Elon Musk reveals he is actually a time traveler.
Elon quickly realizes this was a mistake after huge public and political backlash.
Well, there is your free space on the bingo card. To add on: He trips, but then his press corps tries to first say he didn't, but then say he was actually doing a new fitness routine and this is a demonstration of how fit and healthy he is.
Too logical. Just "fake news, quiet piggy" end press conference/social media post.
Then the alt-right man-o-blogosphere convinces impressionable young men everywhere to start tripping on stairs because it's a show of strength. Y'know, appearing weak to enemies, but in reality, you're super strong. Or some BS like that.
Young men across the country, across the world, start doing this. Leading to an increase in injuries because they thought it was just for show. Then because healthcare is expensive (in the US), this drives the nazi youth to demand M4A. And because these young white men want it, we finally get it. Or at least they do; the rest of us plebs gotta keep paying insurance premiums and getting claims denied.
Though I think that's still technically a step in the right direction? Yay for progress...
It would be a step up
Yas queen I'm so ready for this
Ding a ling ding, her new wedding bells album, titled "Glocks 'n Spill"
Drunk in the back of my carillion, coming home from the barillion.
Thank you for this.
No, no, tell me more about this meteor --
Sora2 maybe already fits the bill here.
Don't look up tho
I'm going to bet on the dark horse that AI bubble doesn't burst in 2026.
(Not actually placing money bet, mind, I moved my modest investments into conservative portfolios already.) But I do think that 2026 will be the year of misdirections and cranking up the fog machines. Metaphor of an employee going off the rails: everyone can see negative changes and start gathering paper trails, but there's enough hopeful obscuring that it'll take time before it all goes to heck. Metaphor of Titantic and ice berg: we've hit, but the orchestra is going to play a bit longer. Some engineers have died and others will die trying, but let's quietly pull the lower deck gates shut and dont alarm the guests yet.Trump dies. Panic among Republican ranks. Kirk widow marries Vance and they try to be a power couple, house of cards (but stupider) style.
Putin dies. War in Ukraine ends. EU and Canada participate in rebuilding efforts, sanctioned billions freed up using some kind of legal mechanism agreed upon by some interim leader who takes over from Putin.
Xi Jinping dies. Jimmy Lai and other civil activists freed from prison finally. Jimmy wins Nobel Peace Prize, his fourth nomination, and is able to attend his own award ceremony at age 79.
An incredible year for conservation efforts somehow: newly rediscovered previously assumed extinct animal resurfaces; boom year for Kakapo's already predicted, but also bug and plant and fungi species in their area have a crazy good year; cure for some horrific animal disease found, maybe sea star wasting disease
Putin dying won't end the war. The Russian public is bought in on the war because wages are at record highs and Russia is at full employment, and everyone who dislikes the war can just ignore it. Meanwhile, enough Russians have died fighting that "it can't just have been for nothing."
I would predict the war ends next year though - the Russian economy has to tank eventually, and it's been wobbling for a while. This prediction is necessarily blind and unwarranted, because if we all knew that it would crash on X date next year, then it would crash today (Ukraine would have an easy time raising funds, saying "we just need the funds to last until X date and then we'll win the war", and everyone would know Russia will lose the war and pull out accordingly, which would cause Russia to instantly collapse economically, which would instantly lose them the war).
Well the war ending with fewer dead would be preferable yes . It's so crazy to me that wages were high and at full employment.... Is it just robbing the future to pay out how? Any time we want good things politicians say "where will we find the money" but they always find the money to build stupid pipelines or bribery science centers or corruption pet projects.
Nice to hear good news about the kakapo.
They're on track for a fantastic year! See article link I mentioned Friday here
The Democrats take back the Senate and House (33%). Trump claims Democrats stole the election (95%) and Trump calls up everyone demanding that they change the outcome so that Republicans win instead (33%.)
OpenAI goes public (33%), but not before Anthropic also goes public (66%). The bubble does not pop fully yet (80%), but there are rumblings about a recession (80%) and OpenAI closes lower than its IPO price (33%).
Inflation is clearly out of control (66%). Housing. Energy. Technology.
To be fair that's been a safe bet for something like 8+ years now, and it's part of why things are so odd.
I’ve given up predicting a recession and am now predicting there will be predictions of a recession that never seems to come. Yes. Hopefully more likely than an actual recession.
I'd say it's closer to 100%. It's like the free square at the center of a bingo card.
I'd say that one is also close to 100% given all the rumblings this year. But I'd be curious to see if your OpenAI predictions come true.
Not a full repeal, but some kind of tariff rollback drama after the upcoming US Supreme Court ruling.
As often happens, the opposition party gains in the US midterms.
In NYC, Mamdani faces opposition to his more radical ideas, disappointing some. Maybe he turns out to be a fairly normal mayor, though?
More of a hope than a prediction, but maybe Waymo will start operating in the San Francisco East Bay?
AI improves significantly for another year. AI continues to be misused. Some new companies do a good job at putting it to work, others fail.
AI-assisted cyberattacks become common and cause some major disruptions.
I predict some sort of market correction to AI companies. I have my doubts it will be a dotcom bubble or that all AI companies will fall apart, but I think something is gonna burst when the numbers are this bad in a nonzero interest rate environment. I suspect the bigger hit will be a lot of the silly startups that have gobbled up VC cash with dubious products. Will any big firms collapse? Maybe, OpenAI seems the most precarious, but they may have enough inertia to power through. I think companies will stop cramming AI into everything as they continue to get bad feedback and bad ROI.
A few substantial model improvements could completely knock out my prediction, but this is where my gut is at the moment.
I’m very biased, but I think Google will be ok. Unpopular Google products will get cancelled or consolidated as often happens, but they’ll still make money on the ones people use. Apple seems similar. The stock market seems to think Oracle has overreached and is vulnerable.
There are apparently big IPO’s in the works for Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX. No guesses on whether they actually happen and what the result is.
I think a lot of the big players will be just fine, contrary to many people's predictions of an AI bubble. Google, Microsoft, Apple, probably Nvidia and a few select others all have the cash reserves to outlast any smaller players, so a big market correction just means that they can buy up smaller companies and become even more dominant than they already are. The only real way to stop this would be government intervention and that doesn't seem likely any time soon, so they'll continue to grow grow grow without a care for anything other than market share.
I’m certain that the SpaceX IPO will offer non-voting shares to the general public.
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2026 predictions:
ENERGY:
TRAIN/TRANSPORT:
MISC
PERSONAL:
Last year, I correctly predicted that I would lose my income/employment, receive a lower back injury, continue to live in this godforsaken city, and still not have a pet. I suspect I was also correct in predicting the decline of the northern rockhopper penguin, but was unable to confirm this scientifically.
I was incorrect about getting hit by a car. It is unclear whether my predictions about electric vehicles were correct because the federal government stopped tracking EV trends. However, I think I was right.
I see that was in your predictions last year too. Are you actively looking to move or was that more just a jab at the city you live in?
I am glad you didn't throw yourself at a car just to fulfill your prediction. Lol what made you think you'd get hit by a car... oh wait is that why you dislike your city? Now it's making sense...
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I was being facetious. Well, actually it was not that facetious. 3 acquaintances were killed this year from car crashes, this happens every year. It's people you know, bartenders and community leaders who deserve to live but die anyway because of this city's lame infrastructure. I could be next, it's impossible to predict.
Other than the willful disregard for human life exhibited by drivers on a daily basis, patronage and bribery in city council, the state government's crusade to destroy our transit system, and the downtrodden homeless opioid addicts lining the streets, there is nothing too objectionable about this place.
The nice neighborhoods are actually very, very nice. I just don't live in them. The city is perfectly charming to normal people, especially those not involved in politics. It's actually a much better place to live than most American cities. It's affordable and has good amenities. However It's stratified and culturally resigned.
I am not in a position to move to a different city. Frankly I do not mind the experience of living here so much, I would be nearly as grumpy anywhere else. My grumpiness comes from the intransigence of inexplicably stupid people who are somehow very powerful, the selfishness of privileged residents who sue the city whenever it tries to improve infrastructure and the entitlement of people in vehicles. And that exists everywhere. So whatever.
If I were to move somewhere else it would be to an uninhabited island (with no cars) where I could watch football with my dog (that i don't have) in peace.
Oh man, yeah that's a lot of car accidents. Your grumpiness is understandable. And yeah, unfortunately a lot of what you said applies to many other places as well. Hopefully 2026 brings some meaningful changes for the better.
My one prediction from last year was that Kendrick would continue his curb stomping of Drake in their now famously one sided beef. That prediction came true, as Drake filed a defamation lawsuit against Kendrick and then had that case dismissed in court. Both artists released music post beef that was eligible for the 2026 Grammy Awards (the time frame for this is very silly), and Kendrick's album GNX got an album of the year nomination (I'm predicting it won't win aoty or best rap album).
I don't feel like contributing to the justified doom and glooming over the current political climate of the world or the state of AI. I have one personal prediction though. This year, I picked up drawing for fun. I have zero experience with it. My prediction is that within 12 months time, I will have been able to produce at least one piece of art that doesn't make me want to kill myself out of embarrassment when I look at it. I'm currently a long way away from that goal, but I am hopeful.
Artificial intelligence wrecks havoc upon the economy, either from major advancements which end up replacing millions of jobs, or from the AI bubble bursting and causing a market crash more catastrophic than 2008. Trillions are wiped off the stock market with major tech firms going under.
Trump throws Zelenskyy under the bus and forces him to agree a peace deal where Russia gets to keep the Donbas and Crimea and where Ukraine must stay neutral and cannot join NATO or the EU. The alternative is America pulling support.
Democrats take back the House and Senate in spectacular fashion, with some deeply red states turning against Trump, opening the door for a fresh attempt at impeachment.
Andrew Tate flees Romania to avoid criminal repercussions, to a country that doesn't have an extradition treaty with the US or UK.
Ecuador reaches the WC semifinals.
With Caicedo anything is possible.
They'll definitely make it out of their group, only Germany should give them real trouble. Then for the knock-outs I can definitely see them holding on to a few 0-0s and 1-0s, so who knows!
I'm calling a Trump assassination from someone on the far right who is going to snap over the Epstein stuff.
Reform to win big in the UK local elections. (Should be in May)
Press continues to talk them up for the next general election due in 2029.
They then royally screw up in every council that they take control of over the rest of the year.
Press continues to talk them up for the next general election due in 2029.
Potentially more long term than 2026, Biden outlives Trump.
Max Verstappen triggers the performance clause and leaves Red Bull due to the Red Bull-Ford engine being subpar
Alternate:
the car is terrible but Max wins 9 races anyway
Man looking through some of the previous threads, a lot of the stuff predicted naturally are related to the hot button issues of the day. But a ton of new/different/unexpected things dominate the headlines in the following year, from covid to the rise of AI to trump to whatever. So my prediction for 2026 is that there will be some new development that none of us in this thread see coming that will absolutely dominate headlines next year. Super descriptive, I know (they call me Nostradamus).
Maybe it'll be a new war (unfortunately this doesn't seem all that unlikely), or some breakthrough tech/research (hopefully a cure to some major illness), a high profile assassination, some big natural disaster (actually given the state of the world I'm fairly confident of this one), or some sizeable economic development (maybe a recession, maybe Trump doubles down on tariffs, maybe health insurances just start dropping people from coverage en masse like homeowners insurances do after a big disaster). Or something completely different than anything I have here but that dominates the media discussion for a good chunk of the year.
Edit: forgot about the WC
My prediction for the world cup is that it goes off mostly without a major international incident. FIFA bends over backwards for Trump some more, the whole world laughs at the US (there'll definitely be posts about how beer at the stadiums will be like $15 or something), Americans stop paying too much attention after the US gets eliminated in the round of 16 or so, people still pay thousands of dollars for their tickets, and protests are mostly restricted to dissenting opinions online and some limited areas of the country like Seattle, LA, and NYC. The world will soon move on and FIFA will announce a new World Cup Winners Cup hosted in Saudi Arabia or the US with like the 10 previous winners of the World Cup
sportswashingplaying for a meaningless trophy.Oh sure, the world is inherently unpredictable. But there’s not much more to say about that.
For sure. I just found it interesting to look back through the years and see that most of the predictions for the following year all related to whatever dominated headlines that year (which is totally understandable!) like covid, or AI, or the invasion of Ukraine. This year there's a lot about a potential AI bubble as well as Trump, which makes sense given this year's headlines. I'm just curious what other sorts of stuff will appear that we are currently blissfully unaware of. I appreciate the outlandish predictions in this thread, even though they often end up being way off base.
I won’t do political ones because I’m terrible at those and my track record proves that.
Timothee Chalamet and Kylie Jenner break up some time after the Oscar’s (40%)
Bad Bunny’s Debi Tirar Mas Fotos becomes the first non-English album to win Album of the Year at the Grammy’s (60%)
Music charts continue to be weak with 2024 carry overs still charting well into 2026. (70%)
Lana Del Rey finally releases her new album (40%)
Dick Van Dyke, Rita Moreno, Mel Brooks, Dolly Parton and Julie Andrews all pass away (30%)
A young starlet such as Jenna Ortega or Billie Eilish have a very public meltdown (20%)
Box office follows the trend of the past two years and actually comes below 2025. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie leads the year with Avengers Doomsday falling 1.5B from Endgame. (60%)
Tom Holland and Zendaya announce a pregnancy (35%)
Euphoria Season 3 completely falls flat on its face. Gets critically derided and derails Sydney Sweeney’s career even further (70%)
Netflix finalizes its purchase of Warner Bros in 2026. HBOMAX will integrate with Netflix. And they announce a rollback of theatrical releases and windows (60%)
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce announce a separation (10%)
As much as I hate drama and want them to live happily ever after, I’m incredibly curious as to what a Taylor Swift divorce would look like.
OT - oh man I checked out for the past three years… last one I did was 2022. I’d love to see someone do a recap of all the threads and how well people did.
https://tildes.net/~talk/13u4/2023_predictions_thread_who_lives_who_dies_who_tells_a_story#comment-7ndj
Guess I didn’t do so bad all in all, mastodon is the main one that didn’t come true but I guess the pickup in bluesky and Threads satisfies the second part.
And the unfortunate thing about Putin is the persistent link between those pesky bodyparts.
Sent from my iPhone 15 with USB-C
Anyway I’m about to make the saddest prediction, but I feel like 2026 is a strong contender for this one.
By end of year, I’m thinking: the USA will be unofficially at war with at least one country in the EU.
Obviously there’s the stuff going on with Greenland but this may not even be the main trigger. I suspect some bullshit distraction resulting out of anti maga political tensions. If I were to guess, somewhere in the baltics, citing corruption.
define "unofficially at war"?
Openly hostile towards, actively interfering with, and has sent troops to. But without declaring war.
Trump fuckin' speedrunning my 2026 predictions eh
It's bluster to get them to make a deal. I don't think even Trump would go as far as to send boots on the ground to 'occupy' Greenland, but he'll make pronouncements, maybe run naval operations, etc. to rankle them.
I think it's crazy at this point to still say "He wouldn't". What kind of signal do you have to back up the idea that trump /wouldn't/ send boots, when all the signals are there to say he would?
I think you might be in for a serious pikachu-face moment a few months from now...
Because anything that could be viewed as any sort of annexation would essentially force the EU to oppose him, fracture NATO, and throw the entire geopolitical balance of power up in the air. I fully expect he'd step on their toes in some way, but as much as Trump and his advisors are willing to break stuff and bully others, I don't believe anyone there is blind/stupid enough to think that won't cause more damage than makes sense. It would be a big step in isolating the US from its most trusted (and despite how they might posture, needed) allies.
Edit: I just looked up and realized it was your prediction that he'd be unofficially at war with the EU - duh me. So I guess that's what you're calculating for; I'm not sure I'd go that far.
You are correct on the consequences. You are incorrect that these are not wanted by the Trump administration. Everything is going according to their plan.
A murder will take place that is connected to a bet made on a prediction market (like Polymarket or Kalshi)
There will be several (5 or more) high profile data breaches in 2026 linked to companies use of AI in their tech stack. Either bad insecure code generated by AI or a customer service bot being talked into turning over the whole database.
A moral panic related to AI generated images of real people will take place, but it won't be directly about revenge porn or CSAM. It'll be a dumb and repugnant conspiracy theory that only tangentially involves those things. "AI images are turning kids trans" or "immigrants are deepfaking our wives", something like that.
Trump will be hospitalised for a confirmed medical episode and recover enough to go back to work for at least one full day.
You're going to make to at least May before remembering Mamdani even exists because he'll be a surprisingly average and scandal-free mayor, and so make few or no headlines for most of the year.
Elon Musk will attempt to sue the government of Sweden alleging some bizarre form of leftist conspiracy. If the case finds any resolution at all by the end of the year, it will not be in Musk's favour.
The political right will pick some random new food or drink product as a culture war battlefield, whether or not their counterparts on the left care enough to fight them on it.
The Saudi royal family will make a play into the film industry in some way, either on the production side or by hosting their own film awards.