AbstractThunder's recent activity
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Comment on Paying for AI: Have you found it to be worth it? in ~tech
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Comment on Check out my ongoing project where I try to find out how accurately a LLM can predict sports outcomes in ~sports
AbstractThunder Link ParentThat would be really interesting! I don't have the experience to be able to put together a multivariate model but maybe that is something I can learn down the line. My idea here was that since...That would be really interesting! I don't have the experience to be able to put together a multivariate model but maybe that is something I can learn down the line. My idea here was that since people are likely using LLM for predictions far more than they should, testing LLM here seemed of interest.
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Comment on Check out my ongoing project where I try to find out how accurately a LLM can predict sports outcomes in ~sports
AbstractThunder Link ParentGreat call out! I'll update that right now.Great call out! I'll update that right now.
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Comment on Check out my ongoing project where I try to find out how accurately a LLM can predict sports outcomes in ~sports
AbstractThunder LinkHi all, I had a shower thought yesterday on how useful AI can be used to make predictions. I inherently understand that AI shouldn't be very good at this because it doesn't actually think no...Hi all, I had a shower thought yesterday on how useful AI can be used to make predictions. I inherently understand that AI shouldn't be very good at this because it doesn't actually think no matter how much OpenAI may try to convince us, and it only has access to existing content so it shouldn't really be able to forecast. I love sports and I thought this might be an interesting intersection where I can play with AI and better understand how much I should trust AI in my personal use, but give it a low-stakes context that I can report on and document.
So I kicked off this project yesterday and created a corresponding Instagram page and Substack. I guess this is basically self-promotion but I'm really just trying to give this visibility to others who might find it interesting. I don't know how long I will keep this going but I like the idea of doing a post-mortem after about a month to see how many predictions it got correctly versus incorrectly. Please check it out and let me know what you think.
I know there are typically strong reactions to AI content (slop) but I hope that if you know that it is AI generated up front, you can look past that part and find this little experiment interesting!
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Check out my ongoing project where I try to find out how accurately a LLM can predict sports outcomes
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Comment on Looking for the PC equivalent of Garage Band in ~creative
AbstractThunder Link Parent+1 for Mixcraft. When I was in high school over a decade ago, I wanted to make music but I didn’t have access to a Mac at home to use Garage Band. So downloading Mixcraft was the next best thing....+1 for Mixcraft. When I was in high school over a decade ago, I wanted to make music but I didn’t have access to a Mac at home to use Garage Band. So downloading Mixcraft was the next best thing. Way easier to get into compared to something like Reaper.
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Did you feel ready to have kids?
How did you become ready to have kids? My wife and I have started to have more serious conversations about having kids and I feel paralyzed at the thought of making a decision one way or another.
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Comment on Taylor Swift concert film will bring Eras Tour to America’s movie theaters in October in ~movies
AbstractThunder LinkJust anecdotally, my wife and I attended the Era's Tour and I think we both have interest seeing it in theaters, although her much more than me. I'd be happy to attend but it's also something I am...Just anecdotally, my wife and I attended the Era's Tour and I think we both have interest seeing it in theaters, although her much more than me. I'd be happy to attend but it's also something I am willing to miss out on while when she heard the news this morning, she absolutely wanted to buy tickets for it.
To her, it's about reliving the experience especially since she would also be interested in attending the Eras tour again if it comes to a city near us. I think this is going to be pretty popular because it's a much more accessible way for people to attend who didn't get to originally. And even for those that were able to attend, it's a nice way to relive the experience.
If people were paying thousands of dollars to attend the concert (including me), I wouldn't even blink at paying a movie ticket price to experience it again.
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Comment on What games do you most wish had a remake, or a sequel or both? in ~games
AbstractThunder LinkI would have loved to see Impossible Creatures 2. I have a memory of my friend from middle school making the weirdest creatures we could think of one afternoon.I would have loved to see Impossible Creatures 2. I have a memory of my friend from middle school making the weirdest creatures we could think of one afternoon.
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Comment on Formula 1 race weekend (Hungarian Grand Prix 2023) thread in ~sports.motorsports
AbstractThunder LinkReally hope that Danny Ric of pre-McClaren shows up this weekend instead of his orange shell. I’m a Ferrari/LEC fan so this year has been pretty disappointing so far and I want some silver lining...Really hope that Danny Ric of pre-McClaren shows up this weekend instead of his orange shell. I’m a Ferrari/LEC fan so this year has been pretty disappointing so far and I want some silver lining even if it’s not here.
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Comment on Fitness Weekly Discussion in ~health
AbstractThunder Link ParentI wanted to chime in and say that for my personal fitness routine, building the habit came before looking forward to it. It was much easier for me to start running or going to the gym 3 days a...I wanted to chime in and say that for my personal fitness routine, building the habit came before looking forward to it. It was much easier for me to start running or going to the gym 3 days a week. And then I did that for a long time, over multiple years with some falling off for changes in my routine such as going on vacation or not feeling it in the winter. However, once 3 days a week started becoming a habit, I experimented with squeezing in a 4th day. When the 4 days a week became normal, slipping back to 3 days a week felt so bad that I found myself with a new habit of 4 days a week.
I don't go to the gym anymore as I have switched over to running as my primary fitness activity, and I'm now to the point where anything less than my routine each week makes me feel "off" and so it is pretty easy to stick to it. I don't know if I would say I look forward to running everyday, but I do look forward to it most days and that wasn't always the case.
Having people around for motivation is really helpful too. My wife was an avid runner our entire relationship so having slowly gone from not a runner to running daily with her has been quite the journey. And now we have developed a larger community of runners who we run with different days each week and that has really helped with the motivation especially when the weather is not ideal.
I have been comparing the ChatGPT Plus subscription against the Gemini Pro one for my personal use and to understand their capabilities for my work. I don’t know if I use either enough to justify their subscription price but because I have them, I find myself going to them first just to see if they can do something. I particularly like Gemini’s integration with my Google account where I can just tell it to add stuff to my calendar with some details and I don’t need to do that myself. I also think Gemini seems better for a majority of my use except that I don’t think it manages history as well as ChatGPT. You should consider something that has a bunch of different models you can use like Perplexity where you pay $20 and basically get Gemini Pro and GPT Plus.