EpicAglet's recent activity
-
Comment on Why normal people aren’t using AI agents in ~tech
-
Comment on What music have you been playing recently? in ~music
EpicAglet Link ParentI'm using Reaper at the moment and am quite happy with it. Honestly just picked it because of the free trial and stuck with it. At one point a long time ago I used ableton and played around with a...I'm using Reaper at the moment and am quite happy with it. Honestly just picked it because of the free trial and stuck with it.
At one point a long time ago I used ableton and played around with a few others but never got into producing as much as I did recently.
Still learning all that it has to offer but haven't found any reason to switch so far.
-
Comment on What music have you been playing recently? in ~music
EpicAglet LinkI started playing guitar in my early teens, so now that would be nearly 20 years ago. Though I haven't always been practising regularly. These days I mainly just pick the guitar up for a few...I started playing guitar in my early teens, so now that would be nearly 20 years ago. Though I haven't always been practising regularly. These days I mainly just pick the guitar up for a few minutes a day's to relax and quiet my mind down.
Recently, I decided to try and start writing my own stuff again and bought some equipment to record it. So right now I'm on a journey of learning home music production, which is kind of fun. Though truthfully, I find starting a new project is very daunting each time. So at the moment I am sitting on a bunch of ideas for songs and am procrastinating the part where I finish writing it and start recording.
-
Comment on As Reddit stock falls, CEO questions value of Google’s AI Overviews in ~tech
EpicAglet Link ParentThese days, I am very much the type of traffic that the article is referring to. I largely left Reddit after the API controversy like many people here. Ever since I stopped casually browsing...These days, I am very much the type of traffic that the article is referring to. I largely left Reddit after the API controversy like many people here. Ever since I stopped casually browsing Reddit.
However, occasionally I find myself in the situation where I want to read the views and opinions of random people on a certain topic. I then Google the question and Reddit is basically the only result that is worth reading (and on rare occasions quora, but quora is a mess).
I try not the read the AI overview, and go for the actual comments, as the whole point was trying to find input from fellow humans. But I noticed that I don't always stick to this anymore and catch myself just reading the summary. So I can totally see how AI can hurt this type of traffic.
-
Comment on FIFA scraps controversial plan to sell commercial rights to private investors in ~sports.football
EpicAglet Link ParentHonestly, part of me wanted him to not back down. All of Europe actually boycotting the world cup would've been wild, and it would've been very interesting to see where it would go from thereHonestly, part of me wanted him to not back down.
All of Europe actually boycotting the world cup would've been wild, and it would've been very interesting to see where it would go from there
-
FIFA scraps controversial plan to sell commercial rights to private investors
24 votes -
Comment on ‘The Odyssey’ holds strong worldwide, cumulative near $640m; ‘Toy Story 5’ third picture YTD to cross $1b worldwide in ~movies
EpicAglet Link ParentSeems like Tom Holland's career is doing wellSeems like Tom Holland's career is doing well
-
Comment on ‘The Odyssey’ holds strong worldwide, cumulative near $640m; ‘Toy Story 5’ third picture YTD to cross $1b worldwide in ~movies
EpicAglet Link ParentI'm also wondering. For concert tickets I can totally see someone look for a reseller if they are too late and the tickets sold out. But for a cinema ticket that wouldn't even occur to me. So I...I'm also wondering. For concert tickets I can totally see someone look for a reseller if they are too late and the tickets sold out. But for a cinema ticket that wouldn't even occur to me. So I wonder how they even go about finding buyers
-
Comment on Meta is adding ridiculous ‘rate limits’ and a soft paywall to its smart glasses in ~tech
EpicAglet LinkSo it's basically like BMW's heated seat subscription. A bit of a strange move considering the backlash BMW got, and right now they should probably be pushing mass adoption rather than monetization.So it's basically like BMW's heated seat subscription. A bit of a strange move considering the backlash BMW got, and right now they should probably be pushing mass adoption rather than monetization.
-
Comment on Reddit will require you to be logged in to use old.reddit.com in ~tech
EpicAglet Link ParentOr they aim to kill old.reddit.com but want to limit backlash, so they make it increasingly hard to access before removing it entirelyOr they aim to kill old.reddit.com but want to limit backlash, so they make it increasingly hard to access before removing it entirely
-
Comment on Reddit will require you to be logged in to use old.reddit.com in ~tech
EpicAglet Link ParentI only really used reddit these days if I land on it through google. The annoying things is that often, if you are looking for a discussion or an opinion etc, reddit and sometimes quora are still...I only really used reddit these days if I land on it through google. The annoying things is that often, if you are looking for a discussion or an opinion etc, reddit and sometimes quora are still is the only real options.
-
Comment on OpenAI says the US government will vet users of its latest AI model in ~tech
EpicAglet Link ParentWhile I share the sentiment, it got me thinking about this for a sec and reached the conclusion that I'd still rather have them not get too involved. The bursting of the AI bubble will not be fun....While I share the sentiment, it got me thinking about this for a sec and reached the conclusion that I'd still rather have them not get too involved.
The bursting of the AI bubble will not be fun. It'll probably be a massive economic crisis. I think it's true that the longer this goes on, the worse the collapse will likely be. And the great cheeto getting involved will most likely hasten this. So on the surface it seems like you'd want this outcome.
But maybe not. I'd fear he'd get himself into a situation where he'd feel like he cannot afford to let the bubble burst. I could see them somehow finding a way to use the US government to keep the bubble intact (for a while longer). What happens when it bursts might be much much worse then. The more involved the Tangerine Toddler gets, the more likely I'd think this would be.
Alternatively, if it pops too soon, the economic crisis will happen during this presidential term. Luckily of course, this master deal maker has shown that he is tremendous when it comes to dealing with a crisis, the best.
You might be better off with a slightly worse crisis if it is being handled by an administration that actually knows what they are doing. Over the bubble popping now, but then expecting Agent Orange to deal with the fallout effectively.
-
Comment on German retailer Thomann is suing Fender over recent cease and desists in ~music
EpicAglet Link ParentThanks. That makes sense. I suppose that's how they get you. As long as the inconvenience of switching remains greater than your annoyance towards them, you're not going anywhere as a customer. I...Thanks. That makes sense. I suppose that's how they get you. As long as the inconvenience of switching remains greater than your annoyance towards them, you're not going anywhere as a customer.
I picked Reaper simply because of the free trail and I liked the vibes the company was giving off. I kind of assumed all the major DAWs are comparable, but I never really looked into the others much. It seems like that is the case from your comment, so it's reassuring to know that I'm not missing out on anything by sticking to Reaper
-
Comment on German retailer Thomann is suing Fender over recent cease and desists in ~music
EpicAglet Link ParentA bit off-topic, but why do you use Studio One? I'm fairly new to recording, but I am currently using Reaper. I'm happy with it, but never really tried other DAWs apart from briefly playing around...A bit off-topic, but why do you use Studio One? I'm fairly new to recording, but I am currently using Reaper. I'm happy with it, but never really tried other DAWs apart from briefly playing around with Ableton in the past.
Does the DAW really make a difference, or is it just a matter of being used to a certain workload?
-
Comment on German retailer Thomann is suing Fender over recent cease and desists in ~music
EpicAglet Link ParentExactly. Yet they've been using this to send cease and desist orders to a lot of small little luthiers, in order to pressure them to stop selling S-style guitars and even destroy their current...Exactly. Yet they've been using this to send cease and desist orders to a lot of small little luthiers, in order to pressure them to stop selling S-style guitars and even destroy their current inventory.
It's seems however, that they made the mistake of also targeting some of the big players. Thomann, who owns the brand Harley Benton, is by far the biggest retailer outside North America. And they are the 3rd largest distributor of Fender guitars in the world after Guitar Center and Sweetwater. They have deep pockets and can afford to fight this out in court. For reference, Fender has a revenue of about 700M USD whereas Thomann is about 1.5B USD.
Moreover, they are based in Germany where the default judgement was won. So they will be very familiar with the legal system there.
Overall, this whole debacle seems like a giant mistake on Fender's side. They've lost a great deal of reputation in order to bully some smaller companies, and now they're in a fight with one of their most important distributors.
Meanwhile, a company like Fender relies largely on brand reputation in order to make its sales. These days, others make similar and arguably better guitars (I'm looking at you, PRS Silver Sky). People buy Fender because of the name on the headstock. What for heaven's sake were they thinking?
-
German retailer Thomann is suing Fender over recent cease and desists
25 votes -
Comment on Does generative AI have a natural limit without a major innovation? in ~comp
EpicAglet Link ParentI understood it as that progress is logarithmic as function of resource cost. So that's why progress seems limited despite massive investmentsI understood it as that progress is logarithmic as function of resource cost. So that's why progress seems limited despite massive investments
-
Comment on Drawbacks to Iceland having its own currency likely exceed the benefits, the country's Finance Ministry said, citing the conclusions of a government-commissioned report in ~finance
EpicAglet Link ParentIt loads again. So it appears that it was just down temporarilyIt loads again. So it appears that it was just down temporarily
-
Comment on Who’s buying SpaceX and Anthropic? in ~finance
EpicAglet Link ParentI think the massive valuation is because of a bubble, yes. One that will necessarily pop at some point. And I am rather worried about what will happen to the global economy when it does. I am not...I think the massive valuation is because of a bubble, yes. One that will necessarily pop at some point. And I am rather worried about what will happen to the global economy when it does.
I am not sure what you mean by buffer. I can imagine some companies might keep some money they raise by selling stock as a war chest for when their stock price tanks and they are no longer able to raise money, if that's what you mean.
My expectation is that the crash comes some time after the main IPOs. So you might make a fair amount of money buying their stock, assuming you sell before the crash.
The core issue is that AI is just not worth as much money as people speculating think it is.
When LLMs started to become commonplace, people thought it would be huge and be everywhere. That made it very valuable. People were right. That is exactly what happened.
But the promises were bigger. It would dramatically change most industries. A lot of jobs would be replaced by AI. And other jobs would see massive productivity gains. If so, companies would pay fortunes for access to AI.
Some productivity gain for certain jobs seems to be there. Some jobs can be (partially) done by AI, though often with a lot of human oversight. The promised gain just doesn't seem to materialise, which pulls into question how much these AI companies can really earn in revenue. The tech seems quite far from changing this equation fundamentally.
Meanwhile, we've reached a point where marginal improvements in the capability of these models requires astronomical infrastructure investments. And this scales terribly, in the sense that the next step up is much larger still.
It seems like the scaling cannot go much further anymore until the world simply cannot invest more. That's the problem with this kind of exponential growth. The money they raise by going public means they can stretch this limit, but it’s still there.
Basically, while they can probably increase revenue significantly by changing how they monetize but nowhere near enough to justify a trillion dollar valuation. Meanwhile expenses are unsustainable. And even if they stop the hyper scaling, expenses are very high. So they will likely not have margins that are too great.
So very large and valuable companies, but much less that what they will be worth at the IPO.
Before the AI craze, the big tech companies were trading at a multiple of maybe 8× or 9× revenue for some. But those are highly profitable companies with high margins and a lot of growth potential.
OpenAI for instance is now estimated at 50× revenue. And it seems to me that they probably will end up trading at a multiple lower than Alphabet or Meta once the dust settles, due to their bottom line not being great even if they become profitable.
-
Comment on Who’s buying SpaceX and Anthropic? in ~finance
EpicAglet Link ParentI have some faith in the long term success of Anthropic. But to me it seems that clearly anything AI is severely overvalued atm, including them. I'm pretty confident it'll be like the dotcom...I have some faith in the long term success of Anthropic. But to me it seems that clearly anything AI is severely overvalued atm, including them.
I'm pretty confident it'll be like the dotcom bubble. A lot of companies died, but also a lot of the big players are still around today. A handful eventually reached that valuation again, years after the crash.
I think Anthropic has the potential to survive if they handle it well. Yet they'll crash hard along with everyone else. And the entire global stock market will probably suffer too.
Anyone with exposure to the stock market will probably lose a significant amount of money. But the AI stock will crash the hardest. And others will suffer in the recession that follows.
SpaceX probably will not go away either, but I believe they are targeting a 2 trillion USD valuation. Their total revenue is 20 billion or so. That's clearly just the AI bubble inflating the stock price like crazy, based on some fairy tale of datacenters in space. They too will crash hard.
Plus knowing Elon Musk, he will do whatever he can to inflate the price and cash out at the peak. He does not shy away from manipulating the market
Reminds me of the quote "I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing. Not for AI to do my art and writing for me so that I can do my laundry and dishes."