Lyrl's recent activity
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Comment on The spinal surgeries that didn’t need to happen in ~health
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Comment on The spinal surgeries that didn’t need to happen in ~health
Lyrl Link ParentMy sister went through a couple of years of physical therapy (and religiously doing the instructed exercises at home) and several more minor surgeries to try to treat her constant excruciating...My sister went through a couple of years of physical therapy (and religiously doing the instructed exercises at home) and several more minor surgeries to try to treat her constant excruciating back pain because her doctor team (including the surgeon) very strongly believed the fusion risk/benefit did not make sense for a 20 year old. They did the spinal fusion when she was 21. She was in the successful 50%, and is very happy with the outcome even now 20 years later.
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Comment on OpenAI’s H1 2025: $4.3b in income, $13.5b in loss in ~tech
Lyrl Link ParentMaybe long payment terms to vendors? I know my employer has some materials they have negotiated 180 day payment terms with. Small startups generally don't have leverage to negotiate those kind of...Maybe long payment terms to vendors? I know my employer has some materials they have negotiated 180 day payment terms with. Small startups generally don't have leverage to negotiate those kind of terms, but these startups are not small.
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Comment on OpenAI’s H1 2025: $4.3b in income, $13.5b in loss in ~tech
Lyrl Link ParentI think Apple is working on optimizations with voice-to-voice translation, but on travel YouTube channels it's already common to see them talking with locals through an app (usually...I think Apple is working on optimizations with voice-to-voice translation, but on travel YouTube channels it's already common to see them talking with locals through an app (usually voice-to-text). My mom recently had a car key copied by a person who spoke very little English, and used a translation app. She was satisfied by the experience.
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Comment on OpenAI’s H1 2025: $4.3b in income, $13.5b in loss in ~tech
Lyrl Link ParentI am really looking forward (hoping!) my work (large manufacturing plant) does this for our internal process documentation. It's really helpful if you find the right piece and that piece is up to...I am really looking forward (hoping!) my work (large manufacturing plant) does this for our internal process documentation. It's really helpful if you find the right piece and that piece is up to date, but both finding and updating are questionable, and I believe an LLM could help.
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Comment on US solar will pass wind in 2025 and leave coal in the dust soon after in ~enviro
Lyrl Link ParentPower companies can manage not having to grow supply, or even getting extra reserve capacity, without too much stress. What gets closer to "terrifying" them is the maintenance costs of the...Power companies can manage not having to grow supply, or even getting extra reserve capacity, without too much stress. What gets closer to "terrifying" them is the maintenance costs of the transport system. Transformers blow and have to be replaced, trees grow in ways that are likely to take out power lines and have to be trimmed, storms and other disaster events require significant repairs, etc. Traditionally these costs were covered by skimming a bit from the per-watt delivery charges, but that breaks down if significant households have near net zero consumption. Then you start getting a need for connection fees, which are a big adjustment for people.
Decentralized solar is also less efficient. There are economies of scale in panel installation and maintenance that make a solar farm generated watt cost less than a residential rooftop generated watt. Certain houses make sense for rooftop solar, but it's also common for the math of a particular house to not make sense for solar.
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Comment on Offbeat Fridays – The thread where offbeat headlines become front page news in ~news
Lyrl (edited )Link ParentThe planet will continue for billions of years (7 billion before the Sun swallows Earth in its red giant phase), but complex life likely has only 600 million years, which is unlikely to produce...The planet will continue for billions of years (7 billion before the Sun swallows Earth in its red giant phase), but complex life likely has only 600 million years, which is unlikely to produce another civilization-capable species.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Earth
When the Sun first became a main sequence star, it radiated only 70% of the current luminosity. The luminosity has increased in a nearly linear fashion to the present, rising by 1% every 110 million years. Likewise, in three billion years the Sun is expected to be 33% more luminous.
The rate of weathering of silicate minerals will increase as rising temperatures speed chemical processes up. This, in turn, will decrease the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as reactions with silicate minerals convert carbon dioxide gas into solid carbonates. Within the next 600 million years from the present, the concentration of carbon dioxide will fall below the critical threshold needed to sustain C3 photosynthesis: about 50 parts per million. At this point, trees and forests in their current forms will no longer be able to survive.
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Comment on The reports of UBI’s death are greatly exaggerated in ~finance
Lyrl Link ParentPros of UBI are removing application barriers (both paperwork and stigma) that result in targeted programs leaving out big chuncks of people who should qualify, and saving money on the...Pros of UBI are removing application barriers (both paperwork and stigma) that result in targeted programs leaving out big chuncks of people who should qualify, and saving money on the administrative costs of enforcing the "only people with x criteria" stuff.
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Comment on California attorney fined for using twenty-one AI hallucinated cases in court filing in ~tech
Lyrl Link ParentThis person owns his own practice. He is the business decision-maker.This person owns his own practice. He is the business decision-maker.
Mostafavi claims he wrote the first draft of the brief but then used AI tools such as ChatGPT, Grok, Gemini, and Claude to "enhance" it. He did not read through the final version before filing it, and says he should not be fined because he did not know AI tools can make up information.
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Comment on Amazon to end commingling program after years of complaints from brands and sellers in ~finance
Lyrl Link ParentThe metric of returns as a marker of quality is also watered down by how many people order several things to try and return all but one. All the products in that case may be good products, they...The metric of returns as a marker of quality is also watered down by how many people order several things to try and return all but one. All the products in that case may be good products, they just didn't fit the customer's preference as well as the single non-returned item.
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of September 15 in ~society
Lyrl Link ParentThere is a thread of hope here, that for many things that have to go through the courts Trump's power grab is running into walls. I heard an analysis that the group Democracy Forward that focuses...There is a thread of hope here, that for many things that have to go through the courts Trump's power grab is running into walls. I heard an analysis that the group Democracy Forward that focuses on bringing lawsuits has been the most effective source of resistance so far in this administration.
Trump can appear “strong” by ordering troops into cities and blowing up little boats in the Caribbean Sea...But that’s enabled by the murkiness of the law around limited unilateral military strikes and Congress willingly ceding presidents warmaking authorities for decades. Similarly, Trump can force news organizations to deliver him the scalps of comedians when corrupt lackeys like FCC Chair Brendan Carr can leverage legal uncertainties around the licensing process to do so. As consequential as these things are, they represent what you might call “easier” autocratic paths for Trump.
Yet the James affair shows that on other fronts, Trump is running into deep institutional resistance and the sheer unwillingness of many key actors to wholly abandon the rule of law on his behalf. Yes, Trump may replace the prosecutor, but then he’ll have to get this sham past many layers of courts and a jury. It’s unlikely to happen. And this Supreme Court could always find a way to let Trump remove Cook, but that will likely prove temporary. Thus far, this whole “mortgage fraud” scam is utterly failing to advance his broader authoritarian project. And there’s no reason to think that will change anytime soon.
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Comment on ‘Grue jay’ hybrid spotted in Texas in ~enviro
Lyrl LinkI wasn't aware of green jays before. They look quite different from blue jays with the lack of crest and much larger black face marking. Interesting the parents even recognized each other as...I wasn't aware of green jays before. They look quite different from blue jays with the lack of crest and much larger black face marking. Interesting the parents even recognized each other as potential mating partners.
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Comment on Dark patterns killed my wife's Windows 11 installation in ~tech
Lyrl Link ParentIt's not like forking over money would have made this person's computer hard drive bigger. OneDrive attempting to put 280GB onto a 25GB hard disk is the issue here. That's not even malicious...It's not like forking over money would have made this person's computer hard drive bigger. OneDrive attempting to put 280GB onto a 25GB hard disk is the issue here. That's not even malicious greedy design, it's just super negligent.
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Comment on The reports of UBI’s death are greatly exaggerated in ~finance
Lyrl LinkLots of good thoughtful analysis here. One thing that he writes about that has struck me before is that it can be the next generation that shows the benefits. That the current adults might be...Lots of good thoughtful analysis here. One thing that he writes about that has struck me before is that it can be the next generation that shows the benefits.
mothers’ pensions, the precedent for today’s welfare program, had muted effects on the women receiving them from the 1910s to the 1930s, but significant effects on the lifetime earnings and educational attainment of their sons, decades later... It averaged about $500/mo to $750/mo in today’s dollars... male children of accepted applicants lived one year longer than those of rejected mothers and received one-third more years of schooling, were less likely to be underweight, and had 14% higher income in adulthood than children of rejected mothers.
That the current adults might be beyond help is a hard message, but their children can be set up for better lifetimes by giving money to the parents, and that is a good societal investment. I am grateful to the advocates continuing to spread the full picture of the science, and hope to live to see our social support system improve based on it.
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Comment on California Governor Gavin Newsom praises Charlie Kirk’s outreach to young men, suggests Democrats do more of their own in ~society
Lyrl Link ParentThere is significant individual variation in capability: I spent years trying to "make it work" through my tiredness because I saw other people actually making it work, including close family...There is significant individual variation in capability: I spent years trying to "make it work" through my tiredness because I saw other people actually making it work, including close family members I admire, and at the start I valued the community stuff more than my tiredness. But that level of pushing myself not only made me so tired I stopped caring about everything I previously valued, but the brain fog crippled my ability to perform my job. Even people without any visible disability may legitimately be unable to function at a level the majority considers normal.
In addition, there are structural factors that affect people's capacity besides a strict list of responsibilities: how long is their commute (adds on to work time drain), how accessible are things like groceries (farther trips not only take more time but demand more mental work to plan things out longer), how far away are members of their support system (popping by daily or weekly makes a huge difference, but is way more burdensome if it's a half hour out of the way in each direction), etc.
I hope someone figures out how to promote enough support factors that community groups come back. It would be hugely beneficial.
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Comment on California Governor Gavin Newsom praises Charlie Kirk’s outreach to young men, suggests Democrats do more of their own in ~society
Lyrl Link ParentIt used to be that most households had a homemaker, and either that person took on the mental overhead of managing community contacts, or their coverage of all things household management meant...It used to be that most households had a homemaker, and either that person took on the mental overhead of managing community contacts, or their coverage of all things household management meant the breadwinner had the bandwidth to do community stuff. My husband and I have significantly drawn away from even communities we used to be heavily involved in because we are so tired all the time from work. We have health conditions that exacerbate our particular problem, but other households have children, or work longer hours. Being too busy (or code for tired because saying you are chronically tired comes across as a copout) is a legitimate social problem in itself, not a moral failing of the people who say it.
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Comment on California Governor Gavin Newsom praises Charlie Kirk’s outreach to young men, suggests Democrats do more of their own in ~society
Lyrl Link ParentIf the administration was confident it could prevent the midterms, it would not have started a gerrymandering crusade. They are afraid of the midterms, and from that I take heart.If the administration was confident it could prevent the midterms, it would not have started a gerrymandering crusade. They are afraid of the midterms, and from that I take heart.
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Comment on Half of people on weight loss drugs quit within one year, Danish study finds – more likely to stop taking the drugs if they were younger, lived in poorer areas, or were men in ~health
Lyrl Link ParentSome people take antidepressants for a while, and are then able to go off them. Other people take antidepressants their entire lives. And some judge the antidepressants-for-life people as having...Some people take antidepressants for a while, and are then able to go off them. Other people take antidepressants their entire lives. And some judge the antidepressants-for-life people as having something completely broken as individuals, but I believe that is profoundly unhelpful. I similarly find judging people who benefit from GLP1 drugs as unhelpful.
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Comment on Many lonely people would rather deal with a robot than interact with an actual human, according to research co-led by Newcastle University in ~health.mental
Lyrl Link ParentThat is maybe encouraging. I had previously seen AI interviews just as screening tools in the employer vs job applicant arms race mess, where their opaqueness and bugginess is widely disliked by...That is maybe encouraging. I had previously seen AI interviews just as screening tools in the employer vs job applicant arms race mess, where their opaqueness and bugginess is widely disliked by the interviewees. That it's possible to get it set up as a main tool in hiring (not just a culling step) in a way beneficial to both the applicants (increased hire rate) and employers (increased retention rate) is hopeful.
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Comment on Many lonely people would rather deal with a robot than interact with an actual human, according to research co-led by Newcastle University in ~health.mental
Lyrl Link ParentI have a chronic condition (POTS) where I genuinely feel worse after socializing or exercising (exercise intolerance sucks) and better after extended solitude and rest. My primary care provider...I have a chronic condition (POTS) where I genuinely feel worse after socializing or exercising (exercise intolerance sucks) and better after extended solitude and rest. My primary care provider repeatedly and insistently telling me I just needed to socialize and exercise more (my condition checks all the boxes of depression screening questionaires) delayed my actual diagnosis by years, and might have sent me down a permanent rabbit hole of inappropriate and ineffective treatment if I hadn't been a strong advocate for myself.
I understand many people are helped by treatments targeting depression, but the overdiagnosis of the condition, that prevents people with overlapping symptoms from figuring out what they actually have, is a personal pet peeve.
My father had many months of PT for hip pain, and similarly had increased pain and frequency of muscle spasms in the day after each session, and zero improvement over weeks and months. He had a hip replacement a few years ago, and that worked great.
My mother in law has had dozens of PT series for many different joint and back pain issues. Her experience has consistently been increased pain without any long term benefit. She knows many people with poor outcomes from surgery and doesn't want that, so she just lives with the foot/knee/back/shoulder/etc. pain.
It's so frustrating to me that physical therapists can have patients for months who make zero progress, and they just tell them to get more sessions instead of identifying that the PT is not helping this particular patient.