Lyrl's recent activity
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of September 15 in ~society
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Comment on ‘Grue jay’ hybrid spotted in Texas in ~enviro
Lyrl LinkI wasn't aware of green jays before. They look quite different from blue jays with the lack of crest and much larger black face marking. Interesting the parents even recognized each other as...I wasn't aware of green jays before. They look quite different from blue jays with the lack of crest and much larger black face marking. Interesting the parents even recognized each other as potential mating partners.
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Comment on Dark patterns killed my wife's Windows 11 installation in ~tech
Lyrl Link ParentIt's not like forking over money would have made this person's computer hard drive bigger. OneDrive attempting to put 280GB onto a 25GB hard disk is the issue here. That's not even malicious...It's not like forking over money would have made this person's computer hard drive bigger. OneDrive attempting to put 280GB onto a 25GB hard disk is the issue here. That's not even malicious greedy design, it's just super negligent.
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Comment on The reports of UBI’s death are greatly exaggerated in ~finance
Lyrl LinkLots of good thoughtful analysis here. One thing that he writes about that has struck me before is that it can be the next generation that shows the benefits. That the current adults might be...Lots of good thoughtful analysis here. One thing that he writes about that has struck me before is that it can be the next generation that shows the benefits.
mothers’ pensions, the precedent for today’s welfare program, had muted effects on the women receiving them from the 1910s to the 1930s, but significant effects on the lifetime earnings and educational attainment of their sons, decades later... It averaged about $500/mo to $750/mo in today’s dollars... male children of accepted applicants lived one year longer than those of rejected mothers and received one-third more years of schooling, were less likely to be underweight, and had 14% higher income in adulthood than children of rejected mothers.
That the current adults might be beyond help is a hard message, but their children can be set up for better lifetimes by giving money to the parents, and that is a good societal investment. I am grateful to the advocates continuing to spread the full picture of the science, and hope to live to see our social support system improve based on it.
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Comment on California Governor Gavin Newsom praises Charlie Kirk’s outreach to young men, suggests Democrats do more of their own in ~society
Lyrl Link ParentThere is significant individual variation in capability: I spent years trying to "make it work" through my tiredness because I saw other people actually making it work, including close family...There is significant individual variation in capability: I spent years trying to "make it work" through my tiredness because I saw other people actually making it work, including close family members I admire, and at the start I valued the community stuff more than my tiredness. But that level of pushing myself not only made me so tired I stopped caring about everything I previously valued, but the brain fog crippled my ability to perform my job. Even people without any visible disability may legitimately be unable to function at a level the majority considers normal.
In addition, there are structural factors that affect people's capacity besides a strict list of responsibilities: how long is their commute (adds on to work time drain), how accessible are things like groceries (farther trips not only take more time but demand more mental work to plan things out longer), how far away are members of their support system (popping by daily or weekly makes a huge difference, but is way more burdensome if it's a half hour out of the way in each direction), etc.
I hope someone figures out how to promote enough support factors that community groups come back. It would be hugely beneficial.
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Comment on California Governor Gavin Newsom praises Charlie Kirk’s outreach to young men, suggests Democrats do more of their own in ~society
Lyrl Link ParentIt used to be that most households had a homemaker, and either that person took on the mental overhead of managing community contacts, or their coverage of all things household management meant...It used to be that most households had a homemaker, and either that person took on the mental overhead of managing community contacts, or their coverage of all things household management meant the breadwinner had the bandwidth to do community stuff. My husband and I have significantly drawn away from even communities we used to be heavily involved in because we are so tired all the time from work. We have health conditions that exacerbate our particular problem, but other households have children, or work longer hours. Being too busy (or code for tired because saying you are chronically tired comes across as a copout) is a legitimate social problem in itself, not a moral failing of the people who say it.
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Comment on California Governor Gavin Newsom praises Charlie Kirk’s outreach to young men, suggests Democrats do more of their own in ~society
Lyrl Link ParentIf the administration was confident it could prevent the midterms, it would not have started a gerrymandering crusade. They are afraid of the midterms, and from that I take heart.If the administration was confident it could prevent the midterms, it would not have started a gerrymandering crusade. They are afraid of the midterms, and from that I take heart.
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Comment on Half of people on weight loss drugs quit within one year, Danish study finds – more likely to stop taking the drugs if they were younger, lived in poorer areas, or were men in ~health
Lyrl Link ParentSome people take antidepressants for a while, and are then able to go off them. Other people take antidepressants their entire lives. And some judge the antidepressants-for-life people as having...Some people take antidepressants for a while, and are then able to go off them. Other people take antidepressants their entire lives. And some judge the antidepressants-for-life people as having something completely broken as individuals, but I believe that is profoundly unhelpful. I similarly find judging people who benefit from GLP1 drugs as unhelpful.
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Comment on Many lonely people would rather deal with a robot than interact with an actual human, according to research co-led by Newcastle University in ~health.mental
Lyrl Link ParentThat is maybe encouraging. I had previously seen AI interviews just as screening tools in the employer vs job applicant arms race mess, where their opaqueness and bugginess is widely disliked by...That is maybe encouraging. I had previously seen AI interviews just as screening tools in the employer vs job applicant arms race mess, where their opaqueness and bugginess is widely disliked by the interviewees. That it's possible to get it set up as a main tool in hiring (not just a culling step) in a way beneficial to both the applicants (increased hire rate) and employers (increased retention rate) is hopeful.
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Comment on Many lonely people would rather deal with a robot than interact with an actual human, according to research co-led by Newcastle University in ~health.mental
Lyrl Link ParentI have a chronic condition (POTS) where I genuinely feel worse after socializing or exercising (exercise intolerance sucks) and better after extended solitude and rest. My primary care provider...I have a chronic condition (POTS) where I genuinely feel worse after socializing or exercising (exercise intolerance sucks) and better after extended solitude and rest. My primary care provider repeatedly and insistently telling me I just needed to socialize and exercise more (my condition checks all the boxes of depression screening questionaires) delayed my actual diagnosis by years, and might have sent me down a permanent rabbit hole of inappropriate and ineffective treatment if I hadn't been a strong advocate for myself.
I understand many people are helped by treatments targeting depression, but the overdiagnosis of the condition, that prevents people with overlapping symptoms from figuring out what they actually have, is a personal pet peeve.
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Comment on How can England possibly be running out of water? in ~enviro
Lyrl Link ParentPublic companies have no financial incentive to improve infrastructure, because it keeps utility bills low. Taxpayers hate utility bills going up just like private owners hate lowering profits....Public companies have no financial incentive to improve infrastructure, because it keeps utility bills low. Taxpayers hate utility bills going up just like private owners hate lowering profits.
Getting buy-in for infrastructure investment before things go completely off the rails is tough in both public-utility and private-utility setups.
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Comment on Famous cognitive psychology experiments that failed to replicate in ~science
Lyrl LinkI remember stereotype threat showing up repeatedly in Science News when I was young, and unconscious bias measurement being the hot thing more recently, it's helpful to learn those failed to hold...I remember stereotype threat showing up repeatedly in Science News when I was young, and unconscious bias measurement being the hot thing more recently, it's helpful to learn those failed to hold up. I had previously seen multiple criticisms of the marshmallow one, not sure if that's just random what I happened to come across or if it's actually had more widespread debunking.
The bilingual one I think was a response to what had been active prejudice against children growing up bilingual. I had a first-generation Korean-American roommate in college who spoke not a word of Korean because her mother believed it would have been harmful for her to grow up knowing anything but English. It makes sense being bilingual doesn't change a person's intelligence, but I think the article could have been improved by covering both directions - no, it doesn't make a person smarter, but neither does it make them stupider.
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Comment on <deleted topic> in ~society
Lyrl Link ParentPeople are fighting against the 1, 2, 3, 4 nord listed, and I support some of those organizations monetarily, but no one person can effectively fight all of the strategies everywhere all the time.People are fighting against the 1, 2, 3, 4 nord listed, and I support some of those organizations monetarily, but no one person can effectively fight all of the strategies everywhere all the time.
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Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of July 21 in ~society
Lyrl Link ParentAside from Maxwell, I haven't seen anything to support Epstein's associates from being guilty of anything additional to looking the other way from the abuse Epstein committed personally. I find...Aside from Maxwell, I haven't seen anything to support Epstein's associates from being guilty of anything additional to looking the other way from the abuse Epstein committed personally. I find convincing the consistent position of multiple rank and file Justice Department sources to media that the files are kept sealed to protect victims, witnesses, and people suspected due to speculation or bad tips but later cleared.
The very nature of the charges against Mr. Epstein contributed to some of the confusion about what he did. By calling him a sex trafficker, federal officials left many with the impression that Mr. Epstein was selling children to others to be abused, but that was never part of the criminal case against him.
F.B.I. files about the rich and famous tend to be a mix of real intelligence, strange rumors and absurd speculation. For example, federal agents once entertained the notion that Frank Sinatra was in a secret conspiracy with his dentist as they sought to determine whether the singer and actor was a communist sympathizer.
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Comment on Frontline report: Russia’s oil smugglers are running out of ocean as UK freezes 100+ shadow fleet tankers in ~transport
Lyrl LinkThis is interesting, but dates are missing. It describes both UK and EU sanctions packages only as "recent". It's not clear which of the described impacts are from previous rounds of sanctions vs...This is interesting, but dates are missing. It describes both UK and EU sanctions packages only as "recent". It's not clear which of the described impacts are from previous rounds of sanctions vs the latest set, and if any additional impacts can be expected to unfold over time. The inclusion of non-dollar payment for Iranian drones and North Korean troops, which are pretty old news at this point, suggests the whole article is dated, despite its claim of being hot news on July 25 (currently two days ago).
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Comment on The state of American men is — not so good in ~life.men
Lyrl Link ParentIf voters are motivated to go to the polls and mark a candidate because of hating the other candidate, or approving of how their guy is going after the out group, or blindly believing some......money talks and corporations and the rich have the loudest voices. That money is then fueled into ads denigrating opponents, villainizing out groups, and promising programs and policies which will never see the floor of any congressional body.
If voters are motivated to go to the polls and mark a candidate because of hating the other candidate, or approving of how their guy is going after the out group, or blindly believing some obviously impossible program or policy outcome (but it's fine if it fails because "at least they tried unlike the other party that wasn't promising anything like it"), they are contributing to a winning constituent base, and their actions are part of a vicious cycle that drives parties to continue those actions.
I hate that moneyed interests can successfully tap into such self-defeating human characteristics, but these are real human characteristics voters have, and winning votes this way can be (and sadly has been for most of my adult life) the path to having a broad constituent base.
The Democratic party successfully defeated the ranked choice ballot question in Nevada, and the Republican party came very close to killing it in Alaska, but ranked choice currently has a state-wide foothold in Maine and Alaska. I am hopeful that over time the experience in those states will wear off the edge of the "unfamiliar = scary" part of the opposition, and allow it to spread.
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Comment on The state of American men is — not so good in ~life.men
Lyrl Link ParentThe two parties both want to win elections, and will change to attract enough people to do so. I think part of the problem is that Americans want really diverse things, and when there are strong...The two parties both want to win elections, and will change to attract enough people to do so. I think part of the problem is that Americans want really diverse things, and when there are strong feelings on five different ways to address an issue it's a) really challenging to get a majority to agree what to try and b) even if something is negotiated through, a large majority will be unhappy it wasn't their thing.
I believe a second part of the problem is it's tough to figure out the details of what voters care about. Fewer people are members of large community organizations they trust to represent them, and fewer and fewer people answer pollsters every year. The ballet box is the ultimate poll, but when voters only have two choices that "poll" really lacks granularity. I am rooting for ranked choice voting to spread. Even if it still supports two major parties (which it has done in Australia for decades), the additional information of people's second and third choice votes would give way more information to the parties so they could have hard data on what changes would make voters happier and get them more votes.
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Comment on One million and counting: Russian casualties hit milestone in Ukraine war in ~society
Lyrl Link...a recent study by the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which puts Russian military deaths at up to 250,000 and total casualties, including the wounded, at over 950,000. Ukraine has suffered very high losses as well, with between 60,000 and 100,000 personnel killed and total casualties reaching approximately 400,000.
...Russian anti-war activists, inside and outside the country, initially believed the rising number of returning bodies would spark public protests... Instead of widespread public discontent, the opposite now appears to be true: many Russians who have lost relatives are urging the Kremlin to press on, convinced that the losses must be justified...
“Any compromise with Ukraine would be a betrayal of the country. A betrayal of the blood our sons have shed,” Shkrebets said. “We need to see this through to the end.” -
Comment on Your brain on ChatGPT: Accumulation of cognitive debt when using an AI assistant for essay writing task in ~tech
Lyrl Link ParentI mean, the same is true of being able to do mental arithmetic - because we now all have calculators in our pockets, the average person today is way less skilled at adding, subtracting,...I mean, the same is true of being able to do mental arithmetic - because we now all have calculators in our pockets, the average person today is way less skilled at adding, subtracting, multiplying, etc. than the average person forty years ago. But that doesn't mean we are on average less cognitively capable, it means we are using our cognition on different tasks, and through that use building up different cognitive circuits.
We don't need to be forcing students to write essays without LLMs any more than we need to be forcing them to do long division on large numbers by hand. We need to be figuring out what the enabled brain work is with the LLM-capable part of the task taken care of, and start teaching students how to develop that skill.
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Comment on ELI5: Why are so many American left-leaning news media capitulating to Donald Trump? in ~society
Lyrl Link ParentI mean, relevant factors include whose money is being prioritized, and over what time scale. Companies that sell outdoorsy hobby stuff will benefit financially from environmental protections....I mean, relevant factors include whose money is being prioritized, and over what time scale. Companies that sell outdoorsy hobby stuff will benefit financially from environmental protections. Fishers will suffer from environmental protections in the short term, but will cease to exist in the long term without responsible stewardship.
In many cases, especially over years to decades instead of just the next quarter, left-wing policies result in more money in people's pockets. The money alone can't explain right-wing views.
There is a thread of hope here, that for many things that have to go through the courts Trump's power grab is running into walls. I heard an analysis that the group Democracy Forward that focuses on bringing lawsuits has been the most effective source of resistance so far in this administration.