be_water's recent activity
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Comment on Where environmentalists went wrong / It’s time for “effective environmentalism" in ~enviro
be_water (OP) Link -
Where environmentalists went wrong / It’s time for “effective environmentalism"
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Comment on Spotify co-founder Daniel Ek hopes his latest brainchild, the Neko Body Scan, will revolutionise healthcare in ~health
be_water Link ParentI think so. The idea that a regular checkup is bad because potential false positives ignores the chance of genuinely catching something serious at an early stage. Stage 1 cancer is much easier to...I think so. The idea that a regular checkup is bad because potential false positives ignores the chance of genuinely catching something serious at an early stage. Stage 1 cancer is much easier to fix than stage 4. Some people just enjoy poking holes at anything new and unfamiliar, especially if it comes from someone, or a category of people (see OP 'tech bro'), that they dislike.
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Comment on Why scrapping VAT on sunscreen and public EV charging would be an expensive waste of money in ~finance
be_water Link ParentAny and every political opinion has a study backing it up. They can't all be correct.Any and every political opinion has a study backing it up. They can't all be correct.
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Comment on Why scrapping VAT on sunscreen and public EV charging would be an expensive waste of money in ~finance
be_water Link ParentSo we agree that tax cuts can be passed through, subject to market structure and pricing power. Step 2 is to look at the specifics of sunscreen and EV charging market structures. Looked up a few...So we agree that tax cuts can be passed through, subject to market structure and pricing power. Step 2 is to look at the specifics of sunscreen and EV charging market structures.
Looked up a few large sunscreen manufacturers (P&G, Unilever, L'Oreal, Estee Lauder) who all have EBITDA margins of 20-25% (Bloomberg). Keeping 100% of a UK VAT cut is effectively a 20% price hike, worth an additional c12.5 points in margin - or 50% to their margin overnight. It's a classic prisoner's dilemma, and would inevitably break in a fragmented market (which this is). If you look at the retailers (e.g. Walgreen's, CVS) their net income margins are like 1-3% which I think needs no further explanation.
EV charging - this is a pure infrastructure/commodity business. There is zero pricing power so you can expect any tax cut to be fully passed through. Have you ever seen a gas station charging double its nearby competitors?
To give more context on the website, it's run by a guy Dan Neidle who's Labour and has strong tax and spend instincts. 'Independent' here doesn't mean 'intellectually honest' / 'no agenda'.
Finally his own argument (below) contradicts the entire article. Why don't these companies double their earnings via pricing? The incentives are certainly there, and I doubt they're holding back out of altruism. The simplest (and correct) explanation is they simply can't.
In a market economy, economic actors charge what the market will bear.
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Comment on Why scrapping VAT on sunscreen and public EV charging would be an expensive waste of money in ~finance
be_water LinkThought experiment: would merchant and consumer behavior change if 100% VAT was imposed? What about 200%? If we accept that yes, raising VAT changes behavior, then why does cutting VAT not change...Thought experiment: would merchant and consumer behavior change if 100% VAT was imposed? What about 200%? If we accept that yes, raising VAT changes behavior, then why does cutting VAT not change behavior (besides leftwing dogma)?
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Comment on BBC exit poll predicts Labour landslide in UK in ~society
be_water Link ParentRE tories / reform... it might not be up to them if that's where the wind is blowing. The GOP tried to resist Trump initially in 2016 but failed miserably. Ultimately the voters decide, so...RE tories / reform... it might not be up to them if that's where the wind is blowing. The GOP tried to resist Trump initially in 2016 but failed miserably. Ultimately the voters decide, so politicians either change their behavior or get replaced (e.g. Liz Cheney).
RE Starmer / prospects for the term. Big problem is no budget for major positive change. Worsening demographics (aging) means pension/healthcare spend growth just to maintain standards per capita, while the tax base shrinks. Meanwhile they've boxed themselves into a corner by ruling out any changes in all the largest tax categories (income, NI, VAT). Tinkering around the edges with private school VAT / carried interest / non dom which all have questionable net tax benefits once behavioral changes occur.
I suspect it will be 5 years of nothing and continuing to paper over the widening cracks.
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Comment on BBC exit poll predicts Labour landslide in UK in ~society
be_water Link ParentMore interestingly Tory was 24% and Reform was 14%. So if the right actually merged before 2029 (there's been speculation of a reverse takeover of the Conservatives by Farage) the picture could...More interestingly Tory was 24% and Reform was 14%. So if the right actually merged before 2029 (there's been speculation of a reverse takeover of the Conservatives by Farage) the picture could look very different. And this vote share is already reflecting a rejection of the tired/unpopular incumbent party.
They will have noticed this too. The options I guess are 1/ go for broke and try to make big noticeable improvements in 5 years, or 2/ play it safe against the populists and hope the right doesn't retrench/reorganize effectively. 1/ really doesn't feel like his style.
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Comment on "Recommend a nonfiction book" - Book reviews in ~books
be_water Link ParentRE Taiwan 'next 30 years (or less)': the date people are speculating on is much sooner - 2027 (link). It's based on some CCP timing (100th anniversary of PLA founding, and 2035 goal for national...RE Taiwan 'next 30 years (or less)': the date people are speculating on is much sooner - 2027 (link). It's based on some CCP timing (100th anniversary of PLA founding, and 2035 goal for national rejuvenation) / Xi likely wanting to achieve this on his watch to match Mao. I also read once about some kind of submarine vacuum in the Pacific in 2027 due to retirements & replacements not yet being ready.
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Comment on The beautiful dissociation of the Japanese language in ~humanities.languages
be_water Link ParentHard agree. Classical Chinese - basically anything pre written vernacular... introduced in the early 20th century - is almost unintelligible if you haven't specifically learned how to read it. You...Hard agree. Classical Chinese - basically anything pre written vernacular... introduced in the early 20th century - is almost unintelligible if you haven't specifically learned how to read it. You essentially had an archaic written language that didn't evolve much as the spoken language moved at a much faster pace (and was inherently more diverse). The analogy is almost like spoken romance languages vs Latin being used in official written documents.
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Comment on Reddit is letting power users in on its IPO in ~tech
be_water Link ParentThere's no liquid market before the IPO so the banks running the process will run a roadshow with investors to get indications of interest / price they're willing to pay etc. Given the uncertainty...There's no liquid market before the IPO so the banks running the process will run a roadshow with investors to get indications of interest / price they're willing to pay etc. Given the uncertainty / lack of track record the price is normally set including an IPO discount (>10%) to compensate investors for this.
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Comment on Why Europe fails to create wealth in ~tech
be_water Link ParentArm is not really as UK as you think: Management: CEO/CFO are both American now, and the chair (Masa) is Japanese. The CEO is based in Silicon Valley Listing: shares are listed on NASDAQ (US) and...Arm is not really as UK as you think:
- Management: CEO/CFO are both American now, and the chair (Masa) is Japanese. The CEO is based in Silicon Valley
- Listing: shares are listed on NASDAQ (US) and a UK dual listing was rejected despite (desperate) UK govt overtures
- Ownership: Softbank owns ~90%. The remaining float is 92% US according to Bloomberg (2.2% UK)
- Employees: UK is largest (47%), but coming down (50% 2y prior), see the F-1
- HQ: still Cambridge... but I wouldn't be comfortable betting that's still true 10y later. Softbank likely made commitments in 2016 but they won't own it forever
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Comment on Cost of internet connection (monthly average) in various countries in ~tech
be_water Link ParentDefinitely high but it's arguably strategic. The state is essentially footing the bill (in the IRA I think) to provide broadband all across the country - even where it's economically irrational to...Definitely high but it's arguably strategic. The state is essentially footing the bill (in the IRA I think) to provide broadband all across the country - even where it's economically irrational to do so (anedotally I've heard some areas of Alaska are $200k per home to connect).
Europe isn't really a fair comparison since the population density is much higher. Average wages are also much lower so you need to adjust for that. And the broadband speeds are generally low - high competition / low return industry means there's no incentive to invest and improve. Pick your poison.
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Comment on Why Europe fails to create wealth in ~tech
be_water Link ParentNo single KPI will capture the whole picture, but everything generally points in the direction that the author was saying. The largest tech market by far is the US, next is probably China, and...No single KPI will capture the whole picture, but everything generally points in the direction that the author was saying. The largest tech market by far is the US, next is probably China, and Europe is essentially not participating. It's so obviously true that the author didn't feel a need to labor the point.
Some metrics you can look at - total venture funding, market cap of listed tech companies, employees in the industry, quality of listed tech companies (growth, margins) etc. Arguably the only world class listed European tech company is ASML (which listens to the US anyway - see the China chip sanctions). Less specific to tech - look at GDP/capita charts for Western Europe vs US, which tracked closely until 2008 when the US broke off and just kept grinding up vs Europe which has stagnated.
The fundamentals are pretty poor for Europe. It's harder for companies to get funding (less capital + risk appetite) and harder for startups to succeed (regulation, EU more fragmented, loss averse mentality). So the rare European successes tend to move to the US anyway, either by choice (Spotify) or acquisition (DeepMind, ARM).
Happy to discuss in DMs.
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Comment on Cost of internet connection (monthly average) in various countries in ~tech
be_water Link ParentWhen I ran the numbers a few years ago (broadband spend as % of household discretionary income) US was basically middle of the pack. It's probably even marginally improved since US income per...When I ran the numbers a few years ago (broadband spend as % of household discretionary income) US was basically middle of the pack. It's probably even marginally improved since US income per capita has been growing faster than elsewhere.
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Comment on <deleted topic> in ~talk
be_water Link ParentIf you have a Western European passport - you probably don't even need a visa to enter the US, but just need to file an ESTA. Costs something trivial like $20 and lasts two years.If you have a Western European passport - you probably don't even need a visa to enter the US, but just need to file an ESTA. Costs something trivial like $20 and lasts two years.
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Comment on <deleted topic> in ~talk
be_water LinkYou should also look into the estate tax (i.e. inheritance tax). Edit: here's the wiki link. Not an expert so not vouching for the accuracy.You should also look into the estate tax (i.e. inheritance tax).
Edit: here's the wiki link. Not an expert so not vouching for the accuracy.
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Comment on Ethiopia cracks down on gay sex in hotels, bars and restaurants in ~lgbt
be_water Link ParentEssentially the form does not match the substance in religious organizations. Organizations end up becoming organisms with a life of their own, with their own motives, incentives, objectives....Essentially the form does not match the substance in religious organizations. Organizations end up becoming organisms with a life of their own, with their own motives, incentives, objectives. These often differ substantially from its stated/purported intentions. The church is a perfect example of this - it's really more concerned with growing its own influence than supposed christian virtues like forgiveness and charity.
I think the miscommunication upstairs is because the OP was discussing what religions are supposed to be on paper, while you've been discussing what the organizations actually end up becoming (which, imho, is far more relevant and important).
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Comment on Why did nuclear flop in Britain? in ~engineering
be_water Link ParentSome reasons why government should avoid running things (vs regulating): Opportunity cost: existing operators would need to be bought out ($$$), then there's annual operating expense. With the UK...Some reasons why government should avoid running things (vs regulating):
- Opportunity cost: existing operators would need to be bought out ($$$), then there's annual operating expense. With the UK unable to even sustainably pay for current government expense - having to cough up for buyouts is the last thing they need
- No market signals / no operational discipline / poor incentives -> existing products degrade (see NHS, or Chinese SOEs if you want an example abroad) / attempts at innovation simply fail (the VC/silicon valley ecosystem is built on rapid iteration/experimentation with the strongest rising to the top - invariably producing a better designed enterprise than a single state-run initiative designed by bureaucrats)
- Short-term political cycles warp incentive structure. Not directly related, same idea - the central bank (i.e. BoE) was granted independence to avoid politicians using it as a piggy bank to drive short-term electoral incentives at the cost of long-term economic stability. See the 'Barber boom' of the 70s which ended up fueling inflation and culminating in a sterling crisis by 76
You can argue the current setup for many public/private partnerships are suboptimal - I agree strongly (e.g. rail, water). But this doesn't follow that government-run is the best solution. You can probably improve these substantially if you actually had some sharp regulators / avoid regulatory capture. But given the low pay on offer and limited prestige, I wouldn't hold my breath.
PS regarding 'the companies keep the profit' - you can't just look at earnings in absolute terms. The private operator has tied a lot of resources building these plants which it could have sent elsewhere (e.g. to build housing, buy a company, build a factory... whatever). Think of earnings as a return on capital invested to build these plants. Capital is chases maximum returns for a minimal risk - the government's job is to set up a structure to attract someone to put up the cash, and let them earn an acceptable (but not egregious) return, while meeting obligations (e.g. with water - delivering good service and not polluting the rivers).
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Comment on Do you think life was better in the past? in ~talk
be_water (edited )LinkThe Atlantic top article addresses this: Goodbye to the Prophets of Doom, The Tale of Rising Inequality Turned Out to Be Wrong. Some of the key takeaways: Branko Milanovic's 'elephant curve' is a...The Atlantic top article addresses this: Goodbye to the Prophets of Doom, The Tale of Rising Inequality Turned Out to Be Wrong.
Some of the key takeaways:
- Branko Milanovic's 'elephant curve' is a chart of income growth rates for all people globally over 1988-2008 (roughly Reagan/Thatcher neoliberalism, up to the global financial crisis). It showed the rich and middle percentiles as the winners of globalization, while the poor and upper middle class were getting squeezed.
- The curve changes shape substantially afterwards - for 2008-18, the curve now shows the poorest benefiting the most, and the richest least. Milanovic in an article last month: "We’re frequently told we live in an age of inequality... the world is growing more equal than it has been for over 100 years"
- Autor, an MIT economist wrote in 2010 about a bifurcating labor market between high skilled white collar labor and everyone else (middle skilled white collar / blue collar) labor, and sharply rising inequality.
- This year Autor is noting a reversal in the trend: “Disproportionate wage growth at the bottom of the distribution reduced the college wage premium and reversed the rise in aggregate wage inequality since 1980 by approximately one quarter. The rise in wages was particularly strong among workers under 40 years of age and without a college degree.”
- Thomas Piketty is writer of "Capital in the 21st Century" / described here as "patron saint of the Great Disappointment", arguing that capital returns have outpaced labor historically (except in events like WWI/WWII) - driving inequality to increase over time. His work has been widely criticized by economists, e.g. arguing that he's misinterpreted the data - that the bulk of 'capital' returns has really been housing inflation in major cities - which benefits middle/upper middle classes the most, not wealthy land/business owners.
- Piketty himself is also turning more optimistic. From his 2022 book: "At least since the end of the eighteenth century there has been a historical movement towards equality. The world of the 2020s, no matter how unjust it may seem, is more egalitarian than that of 1950 or that of 1900, which were themselves in many respects more egalitarian than those of 1850 or 1780"
