be_water's recent activity
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Comment on The beautiful dissociation of the Japanese language in ~humanities.languages
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Comment on Reddit is letting power users in on its IPO in ~tech
be_water Link ParentThere's no liquid market before the IPO so the banks running the process will run a roadshow with investors to get indications of interest / price they're willing to pay etc. Given the uncertainty...There's no liquid market before the IPO so the banks running the process will run a roadshow with investors to get indications of interest / price they're willing to pay etc. Given the uncertainty / lack of track record the price is normally set including an IPO discount (>10%) to compensate investors for this.
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Comment on Why Europe fails to create wealth in ~tech
be_water Link ParentArm is not really as UK as you think: Management: CEO/CFO are both American now, and the chair (Masa) is Japanese. The CEO is based in Silicon Valley Listing: shares are listed on NASDAQ (US) and...Arm is not really as UK as you think:
- Management: CEO/CFO are both American now, and the chair (Masa) is Japanese. The CEO is based in Silicon Valley
- Listing: shares are listed on NASDAQ (US) and a UK dual listing was rejected despite (desperate) UK govt overtures
- Ownership: Softbank owns ~90%. The remaining float is 92% US according to Bloomberg (2.2% UK)
- Employees: UK is largest (47%), but coming down (50% 2y prior), see the F-1
- HQ: still Cambridge... but I wouldn't be comfortable betting that's still true 10y later. Softbank likely made commitments in 2016 but they won't own it forever
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Comment on Cost of internet connection (monthly average) in various countries in ~tech
be_water Link ParentDefinitely high but it's arguably strategic. The state is essentially footing the bill (in the IRA I think) to provide broadband all across the country - even where it's economically irrational to...Definitely high but it's arguably strategic. The state is essentially footing the bill (in the IRA I think) to provide broadband all across the country - even where it's economically irrational to do so (anedotally I've heard some areas of Alaska are $200k per home to connect).
Europe isn't really a fair comparison since the population density is much higher. Average wages are also much lower so you need to adjust for that. And the broadband speeds are generally low - high competition / low return industry means there's no incentive to invest and improve. Pick your poison.
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Comment on Why Europe fails to create wealth in ~tech
be_water Link ParentNo single KPI will capture the whole picture, but everything generally points in the direction that the author was saying. The largest tech market by far is the US, next is probably China, and...No single KPI will capture the whole picture, but everything generally points in the direction that the author was saying. The largest tech market by far is the US, next is probably China, and Europe is essentially not participating. It's so obviously true that the author didn't feel a need to labor the point.
Some metrics you can look at - total venture funding, market cap of listed tech companies, employees in the industry, quality of listed tech companies (growth, margins) etc. Arguably the only world class listed European tech company is ASML (which listens to the US anyway - see the China chip sanctions). Less specific to tech - look at GDP/capita charts for Western Europe vs US, which tracked closely until 2008 when the US broke off and just kept grinding up vs Europe which has stagnated.
The fundamentals are pretty poor for Europe. It's harder for companies to get funding (less capital + risk appetite) and harder for startups to succeed (regulation, EU more fragmented, loss averse mentality). So the rare European successes tend to move to the US anyway, either by choice (Spotify) or acquisition (DeepMind, ARM).
Happy to discuss in DMs.
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Comment on Cost of internet connection (monthly average) in various countries in ~tech
be_water Link ParentWhen I ran the numbers a few years ago (broadband spend as % of household discretionary income) US was basically middle of the pack. It's probably even marginally improved since US income per...When I ran the numbers a few years ago (broadband spend as % of household discretionary income) US was basically middle of the pack. It's probably even marginally improved since US income per capita has been growing faster than elsewhere.
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Comment on <deleted topic> in ~talk
be_water Link ParentIf you have a Western European passport - you probably don't even need a visa to enter the US, but just need to file an ESTA. Costs something trivial like $20 and lasts two years.If you have a Western European passport - you probably don't even need a visa to enter the US, but just need to file an ESTA. Costs something trivial like $20 and lasts two years.
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Comment on <deleted topic> in ~talk
be_water LinkYou should also look into the estate tax (i.e. inheritance tax). Edit: here's the wiki link. Not an expert so not vouching for the accuracy.You should also look into the estate tax (i.e. inheritance tax).
Edit: here's the wiki link. Not an expert so not vouching for the accuracy.
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Comment on Ethiopia cracks down on gay sex in hotels, bars and restaurants in ~lgbt
be_water Link ParentEssentially the form does not match the substance in religious organizations. Organizations end up becoming organisms with a life of their own, with their own motives, incentives, objectives....Essentially the form does not match the substance in religious organizations. Organizations end up becoming organisms with a life of their own, with their own motives, incentives, objectives. These often differ substantially from its stated/purported intentions. The church is a perfect example of this - it's really more concerned with growing its own influence than supposed christian virtues like forgiveness and charity.
I think the miscommunication upstairs is because the OP was discussing what religions are supposed to be on paper, while you've been discussing what the organizations actually end up becoming (which, imho, is far more relevant and important).
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Comment on Why did nuclear flop in Britain? in ~engineering
be_water Link ParentSome reasons why government should avoid running things (vs regulating): Opportunity cost: existing operators would need to be bought out ($$$), then there's annual operating expense. With the UK...Some reasons why government should avoid running things (vs regulating):
- Opportunity cost: existing operators would need to be bought out ($$$), then there's annual operating expense. With the UK unable to even sustainably pay for current government expense - having to cough up for buyouts is the last thing they need
- No market signals / no operational discipline / poor incentives -> existing products degrade (see NHS, or Chinese SOEs if you want an example abroad) / attempts at innovation simply fail (the VC/silicon valley ecosystem is built on rapid iteration/experimentation with the strongest rising to the top - invariably producing a better designed enterprise than a single state-run initiative designed by bureaucrats)
- Short-term political cycles warp incentive structure. Not directly related, same idea - the central bank (i.e. BoE) was granted independence to avoid politicians using it as a piggy bank to drive short-term electoral incentives at the cost of long-term economic stability. See the 'Barber boom' of the 70s which ended up fueling inflation and culminating in a sterling crisis by 76
You can argue the current setup for many public/private partnerships are suboptimal - I agree strongly (e.g. rail, water). But this doesn't follow that government-run is the best solution. You can probably improve these substantially if you actually had some sharp regulators / avoid regulatory capture. But given the low pay on offer and limited prestige, I wouldn't hold my breath.
PS regarding 'the companies keep the profit' - you can't just look at earnings in absolute terms. The private operator has tied a lot of resources building these plants which it could have sent elsewhere (e.g. to build housing, buy a company, build a factory... whatever). Think of earnings as a return on capital invested to build these plants. Capital is chases maximum returns for a minimal risk - the government's job is to set up a structure to attract someone to put up the cash, and let them earn an acceptable (but not egregious) return, while meeting obligations (e.g. with water - delivering good service and not polluting the rivers).
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Comment on Do you think life was better in the past? in ~talk
be_water (edited )LinkThe Atlantic top article addresses this: Goodbye to the Prophets of Doom, The Tale of Rising Inequality Turned Out to Be Wrong. Some of the key takeaways: Branko Milanovic's 'elephant curve' is a...The Atlantic top article addresses this: Goodbye to the Prophets of Doom, The Tale of Rising Inequality Turned Out to Be Wrong.
Some of the key takeaways:
- Branko Milanovic's 'elephant curve' is a chart of income growth rates for all people globally over 1988-2008 (roughly Reagan/Thatcher neoliberalism, up to the global financial crisis). It showed the rich and middle percentiles as the winners of globalization, while the poor and upper middle class were getting squeezed.
- The curve changes shape substantially afterwards - for 2008-18, the curve now shows the poorest benefiting the most, and the richest least. Milanovic in an article last month: "We’re frequently told we live in an age of inequality... the world is growing more equal than it has been for over 100 years"
- Autor, an MIT economist wrote in 2010 about a bifurcating labor market between high skilled white collar labor and everyone else (middle skilled white collar / blue collar) labor, and sharply rising inequality.
- This year Autor is noting a reversal in the trend: “Disproportionate wage growth at the bottom of the distribution reduced the college wage premium and reversed the rise in aggregate wage inequality since 1980 by approximately one quarter. The rise in wages was particularly strong among workers under 40 years of age and without a college degree.”
- Thomas Piketty is writer of "Capital in the 21st Century" / described here as "patron saint of the Great Disappointment", arguing that capital returns have outpaced labor historically (except in events like WWI/WWII) - driving inequality to increase over time. His work has been widely criticized by economists, e.g. arguing that he's misinterpreted the data - that the bulk of 'capital' returns has really been housing inflation in major cities - which benefits middle/upper middle classes the most, not wealthy land/business owners.
- Piketty himself is also turning more optimistic. From his 2022 book: "At least since the end of the eighteenth century there has been a historical movement towards equality. The world of the 2020s, no matter how unjust it may seem, is more egalitarian than that of 1950 or that of 1900, which were themselves in many respects more egalitarian than those of 1850 or 1780"
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Comment on What are you reading these days? in ~books
be_water Link ParentI think you mean Philip K Dick for Ubik? It's a great little novel. He anticipated today's rental economy as well, with the door that charges you to open it - bleak stuff. Have you also read the...I think you mean Philip K Dick for Ubik? It's a great little novel. He anticipated today's rental economy as well, with the door that charges you to open it - bleak stuff.
Have you also read the Blade Runner one as well (Can Androids Dream of Electric Sheep)?
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Comment on What are you reading these days? in ~books
be_water LinkBlood Meridian, by Cormac McCarthy. Only ~60 pages in, the book already earning its reputation. It's a brutal, nihilistic, and cinematic depiction of the American West. McCarthy can create truly...Blood Meridian, by Cormac McCarthy. Only ~60 pages in, the book already earning its reputation. It's a brutal, nihilistic, and cinematic depiction of the American West. McCarthy can create truly vivid and gripping images with his prose - really unlike anything I've seen before.
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Comment on Microsoft’s Activision deal could face ‘new merger investigation,’ UK regulator warns in ~games
be_water LinkFace saving statement from the CMA - they overreached and backed down after the US court ruling. Probably pressure from Rishi as well, to present the UK as open to business - especially tech....Face saving statement from the CMA - they overreached and backed down after the US court ruling. Probably pressure from Rishi as well, to present the UK as open to business - especially tech.
Microsoft will give them a small divestiture, then the CMA will spin it as a massive victory even as they wave the deal through.
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Comment on Why is there so much right-wing media? in ~misc
be_water LinkI think Paul Graham answers this well (below) - not exactly your question (what's the future of journalism?) but the underlying drivers are the same. Essentially the internet expanded every media...I think Paul Graham answers this well (below) - not exactly your question (what's the future of journalism?) but the underlying drivers are the same. Essentially the internet expanded every media player's reach - so it suddenly became viable to address very small/specific niches, instead of trying to cater to the average. That and the increased competition/noise (because everyone has this almost infinite reach) just pushed media to try harder to stand out - often by getting more and more extreme (in both directions).
Q: What's the future of what we now call journalism? Is it all Substack (a YC company)? Can we run the global-scale world with that model?
A: I worry about that. I worry that the kind of journalism I took for granted growing up was actually the result of specific conditions that have now disappeared. In particular, the "newspaper of record" that couldn't stray too far from politically neutral because they wanted to reach all the people in a particular region, both liberal and conservative, but which made so much from it that they could afford to support a thorough search for the truth.
We've got some things now that we didn't have then, like individual domain experts writing very deep explanations of things under their own names. But I worry there are some stories that might not get written now. Or that if they do, they'll be written in such a partisan way that they'll have no effect.
original interview: https://www.thepullrequest.com/p/pr-interviews-paul-graham
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Comment on What's your retirement plan? in ~finance
be_water Link ParentYou should look into voluntary contributions to your ISA and topping up your pension, as both those avenues let you invest tax-free (until you withdraw). Quite a meaningful benefit if you're on...You should look into voluntary contributions to your ISA and topping up your pension, as both those avenues let you invest tax-free (until you withdraw). Quite a meaningful benefit if you're on the higher tax brackets. Vanguard is great for that as well, low-cost way to own equities.
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Comment on Is there any book that you keep trying but can not get through? in ~books
be_water Link ParentSame experience for me, although I skimmed my way through (waste of time/effort, in hindsight). Foucault's Pendulum felt like 10 pages of plot and 500 pages of medieval gossip / conspiracy...Same experience for me, although I skimmed my way through (waste of time/effort, in hindsight).
Foucault's Pendulum felt like 10 pages of plot and 500 pages of medieval gossip / conspiracy theories. The first 50 pages are actually heavier on plot than the rest of the book, if it makes you feel any better (i.e., it only gets worse).
Island of the Day Before was similarly disastrous, but I found Baudolino to actually be a good read - though very different in style to the rest of his work. He actually tries to write a novel there, instead of novel-as-data-dump.
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Comment on Tildes predictions (a time capsule for 10 years from now) in ~talk
be_water Link ParentIsn't it possible to change the structure? OpenAI started out as a nonprofit but that changed when they needed more funding to achieve its goals.Isn't it possible to change the structure? OpenAI started out as a nonprofit but that changed when they needed more funding to achieve its goals.
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Comment on Does anyone read a weekly printed news publication? If so, which and why? in ~talk
be_water Link ParentIt's American but I don't think overly so - as long as you're interested in reading thoughtful pieces I think you'll enjoy it. I don't know LRB well but I'd say it feels slightly more in its own...It's American but I don't think overly so - as long as you're interested in reading thoughtful pieces I think you'll enjoy it. I don't know LRB well but I'd say it feels slightly more in its own humanities / academic-y bubble, while the New Yorker feels (slightly) closer to real life (in a good way).
FWIW I'm also UK based.
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Comment on What are you reading these days? in ~books
be_water Link ParentC&P is sensational - highly recommended. It's probably my top novel of all time (not that I'm an authority). It's shockingly relevant/contemporary - MC Raskolnikov is basically a 19C Russian incel.C&P is sensational - highly recommended. It's probably my top novel of all time (not that I'm an authority).
It's shockingly relevant/contemporary - MC Raskolnikov is basically a 19C Russian incel.
Hard agree. Classical Chinese - basically anything pre written vernacular... introduced in the early 20th century - is almost unintelligible if you haven't specifically learned how to read it. You essentially had an archaic written language that didn't evolve much as the spoken language moved at a much faster pace (and was inherently more diverse). The analogy is almost like spoken romance languages vs Latin being used in official written documents.