honzabe's recent activity
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
honzabe (edited )Link ParentThe way I understand it, a reserve currency is a currency that governments and central banks hold in large amounts because they trust it to reliably store value and be usable everywhere. To be...The way I understand it, a reserve currency is a currency that governments and central banks hold in large amounts because they trust it to reliably store value and be usable everywhere. To be honest, I was hoping someone more knowledgeable would step in and elucidate things. Does the world even have to have one dominant reserve currency? It seems that we are entering the multipolar world - perhaps it also means multiple reserve currencies, none of which is dominant? Here, I should probably clarify - I am not saying that nobody will buy the US dollars. I am just betting the US will lose its dominance, that the US dollar stops being the “world money”.
Without understanding the details, I have to rely on abstract concepts, and on the abstract level, I believe the US benefited from being considered the safest bet not only because it was strong, but also because it was trustworthy. You say, “China can't because no one trusts them” - my bet is based on the impression that the current administration can have such an effect that soon, the world will say the same about the US.
Also, you are right that the EU moves slowly, but these are dangerous times, and danger can often make people move faster. Maybe it is wishful thinking on my part - we will see.
We should definitely bookmark this and come back in two or three years - we will probably be wiser by then (provided we are not turned into smoking detritus of WW3 - I have to admit I feel a bit uneasy saying this).
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
honzabe Link ParentIf you don’t mind me pushing a bit further, I will ask again - how? I mean specifically. For example, if the EU and Canada agree to trade in Euros or Canadian dollars, how will the US force them...If you don’t mind me pushing a bit further, I will ask again - how? I mean specifically. For example, if the EU and Canada agree to trade in Euros or Canadian dollars, how will the US force them to buy US dollars? Or, if the EU no longer trusts the US, why would they buy US bonds? Why would Japan, observing the US invading Greenland, buy the US bonds? I am not saying there is no way to force everybody; I just don’t see any plausible way. Given my limited knowledge on the subject, I am open to being educated.
My current understanding of the situation is that a lot of the hard power depends on the soft power and specifically trust. You buy the currency of a country because you trust it is a reliable way to store value. It is a good store of value if the country that emits the currency is stable, predictable, and dependable (not necessarily likable). If you observe the world’s (ex)cop behaving erratically (attacking your own allies), you don’t keep buying their currency - you buy gold, build your own payment system, and arm yourself with nukes (if you don’t have them yet) to make sure “the might is right” is on your side.
And BTW, when talking about the might is right” - I know it is fashionable to laugh at how weak and bureaucratic Europeans are. And sure, we Europeans are slow and do like our comfort. We need to fix a lot of things. But there is a lot of might on our side too, both economically and militarily. Sure, maybe we are so spoiled that we will not use our potential and let others tear us apart. But on the other hand, maybe not.
Granted, I am considered a guy with an overactive imagination, but I can imagine Europe pulling itself together and replacing the US as the center of gravity for all those countries that prefer cooperation and a rules-based system to the law of the jungle. That could attract a lot of the soft power that the US is currently just throwing away.
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
honzabe Link ParentHere, I believe you might severely underestimate the impact. The US did some unsavory things while playing the role of the world cop, but recent events (threatening Greenland, Canada, the official...There will be some loss of trust, but not enough to decouple the world market from the dollar.
Here, I believe you might severely underestimate the impact. The US did some unsavory things while playing the role of the world cop, but recent events (threatening Greenland, Canada, the official security strategy, rolling red carpet for Putin...) are a completely different league. Attacking a NATO ally is not even close to the same level as, say, the second Iraq. And that was still pretty bad and had a significant impact in the US.
Just like you, I estimate, we can’t really know until it happens, but I severely doubt it would be business as usual for the EU.
BTW, do you wanna do a friendly bet, just for fun? My estimate is that the US dollar will lose the status of the dominant reserve currency before the end of this administration.
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
honzabe Link ParentWell, as I said, my understanding of the global economy is weak, but I would guess that the stuff you mention has limits. AFAIK, some trade already occurs in other currencies (China - Brazil)......Well, as I said, my understanding of the global economy is weak, but I would guess that the stuff you mention has limits. AFAIK, some trade already occurs in other currencies (China - Brazil)... dedollarization is already a thing - wouldn’t the US attacking their closest allies accelerate this? Possibly a lot? If the US is hostile to both the EU and China, why would they trade in the US dollar? Also, I would expect some form of boycott of the US products from European consumers, just as Canadians do (based on my social bubble, this is already starting to happen). And one of the reasons companies buy dollars it so buy US products, isn’t it? Less demand for US products → less demand for US dollars.
BTW, my understanding of history is also limited, but wasn’t the British Pound once the world’s reserve currency? Didn’t they lose that status when they overspent and overstretched their imperial ambitions? Also, I would expect this to be one of those things that go slowly and then suddenly. Once someone big enough starts dumping dollars, the whole thing may collapse in a matter of weeks - couldn’t Europe and/or China use this as leverage, if things get really bad? They could crash the dollar - sure, it would cost them dearly, but when there is an actual war... BTW, isn’t this basically what happened to the British Pound during the Suez crisis?
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
honzabe Link ParentI guess you are talking about Europe on the level of governments, but I would be interested to know what other European commoners, like me, are doing (or planning to do). I am thinking about how I...I guess you are talking about Europe on the level of governments, but I would be interested to know what other European commoners, like me, are doing (or planning to do). I am thinking about how I could decouple myself from the US, and it drives me crazy how difficult it will be even on a small personal level.
Not buying an iPhone is the easy part. So is getting rid of Facebook, Twitter, etc. - I already stopped using those around the time Musk bought Twitter. Getting rid of Microsoft products will also be somewhat easy, because I’ve been a Linux fan for decades, I don’t use MS products if I can avoid it, and all my projects I consider important are built on open-source platforms. However, many of my projects are running on Cloudflare infrastructure, some on AWS, payments are accepted via Stripe, authentication via Clerk, and all my emails are in Gmail... this will be incredibly hard. And everything AI-related? Fuuu...
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
honzabe Link ParentHow? Admittedly, my understanding of the global economy is amateurish and superficial, but I would expect the US militarily attacking their (previously) close allies to do the opposite - threaten...Personally, I think this is largely downstream of the national debt (taking a more domineering role on the world stage to try to prop up the dollar as the reserve currency, physically expanding to make more room for GDP growth beyond what would be possible otherwise).
How? Admittedly, my understanding of the global economy is amateurish and superficial, but I would expect the US militarily attacking their (previously) close allies to do the opposite - threaten the reserve currency status of the US dollar.
When countries hold dollars, they are implicitly trusting that US debts will be honored, US courts will enforce contracts, US property rights are stable, etc. If the US attacks Greenland (which basically means attacking NATO), all US allies will ask the question (they are probably asking already): “If treaties don’t bind the US, why should debt obligations?” Reserve currency status depends on the belief that what was agreed will be honored, doesn't it?
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Comment on Dr. Glen Jeffery: Using red light to improve your health and the harmful effects of LEDs [Huberman Lab] in ~health
honzabe Link ParentI would be very interested in the results of that experiment. Do you happen to have a blog? If not, would you be willing to post it here? Thanks for what you've already written here.I'll do more experiments once my new panel arrives from China.
I would be very interested in the results of that experiment. Do you happen to have a blog? If not, would you be willing to post it here?
Thanks for what you've already written here.
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Comment on US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to end all monkey research in ~science
honzabe (edited )Link ParentI might be wrong, but the way I understand that reference, the paperclip metaphor is about optimizing for something that is, in the grand scale of things, unimportant, not just optimizing for...I understand the reference. What I mean is that there are actual living humans who might think of themselves as paperclip optimizers; but most of them are probably optimizing for net human welfare
I might be wrong, but the way I understand that reference, the paperclip metaphor is about optimizing for something that is, in the grand scale of things, unimportant, not just optimizing for something. Paperclips represent something that is ultimately meaningless, as opposed to, for example, human lives (which is why I was also puzzled by your original comment - within this framework, it does not make sense, unless you think "net human welfare" is ultimately meaningless).
Isn't this how most people understand it? Paperclips represent mis-optimization, don't they?
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Comment on Europeans recognize Zohran Mamdani’s supposedly radical policies as ‘normal’ in ~society
honzabe (edited )Link ParentI still hope you guys get your shit together and somehow manage to break that fall. Not only because my country is affected by your shit. Many years ago, when I was in college, I spent 7 months in...The US spent a good 80+ years building such soft power and becoming many country's reserve currency. And all that stood on an idea of trust and stability that is being torn apart in real time. This was decades coming but clearly things are now in free fall.
I still hope you guys get your shit together and somehow manage to break that fall. Not only because my country is affected by your shit.
Many years ago, when I was in college, I spent 7 months in the US. These were the best times of my life. I met amazing people there, and I will always remember Americans as open, generous, and friendly people. I landed at JFK in June 2001, and the months before 9/11, the US felt so light-hearted. Now it feels like this was the last time America was happy. I remember breakdancers on Times Square at night, so much energy and the crowd cheering... do people still do that? It's hard to describe the atmosphere, but there was joy in the air. I will never forget that. I really hope you manage to get that back somehow.
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Comment on Europeans recognize Zohran Mamdani’s supposedly radical policies as ‘normal’ in ~society
honzabe (edited )Link ParentFun fact: my whole country has a population roughly comparable to NYC. The economy of NYC is approximately four times the size of ours; NYC's GDP is comparable to a mid-sized EU country like...Fun fact: my whole country has a population roughly comparable to NYC. The economy of NYC is approximately four times the size of ours; NYC's GDP is comparable to a mid-sized EU country like Spain.
California's GDP is even bigger; it surpasses Japan's and makes it the fourth-largest economy globally.The size, wealth, and impact of the US as a whole are so big that American politics very likely affects my future more than our own. This is what's so maddening about observing it from the outside.
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Comment on James Watson, dead at 97, was a scientific legend and a pariah among his peers in ~science
honzabe Link ParentNice theory, makes sense. I will add it to my collection of theories explaining why smart people can be so stupid. I will call it Eji1700's theory of extreme dedication.Nice theory, makes sense. I will add it to my collection of theories explaining why smart people can be so stupid. I will call it Eji1700's theory of extreme dedication.
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Comment on James Watson, dead at 97, was a scientific legend and a pariah among his peers in ~science
honzabe Link ParentMy pet theory is that intelligence is not a permanent property of a person, but it's kinda like health. You can be born with above-average health, but you can still ruin it with a bad diet. I...My pet theory is that intelligence is not a permanent property of a person, but it's kinda like health. You can be born with above-average health, but you can still ruin it with a bad diet. I suspect the way we treat extremely successful people is a very unhealthy diet for the mind.
After reading The Enigma of Reason, I believe the ability to reason has not evolved as a truth-discovering tool, but as a social tool. We need to make good arguments to convince others to do what we want, justify ourselves to others, etc.
Now, imagine you win a Nobel Prize or launch a billion-dollar company. You get rich and famous, people label you as a genius, your followers keep showering you with praise and admiration even if you say the stupidest thing ever... well, maybe you no longer need to reason to maintain your social standing, right?
It must be brutally tempting to start believing the hype and convince yourself that you know better than everybody else. Especially if we are talking about a person with certain predispositions, like insecurity.
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Comment on Cataloging your home library in ~books
honzabe Link ParentI have pretty good experience with the html5-qrcode JavaScript library for scanning ISBNs and the Google Books API for grabbing the book data, which is still free for a small-scale use. The...I was really hoping there'd be a free API for ISBN lookup but I've had no luck finding one.
I have pretty good experience with the html5-qrcode JavaScript library for scanning ISBNs and the Google Books API for grabbing the book data, which is still free for a small-scale use. The success rate is sufficiently good for me. I would say that the info is incorrect in about 1 out of 50 books. I use it for common books, though - I am not sure how it would work with rare books. You can give it a try:
https://www.googleapis.com/books/v1/volumes?q=isbn:9780007232161
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Comment on Cataloging your home library in ~books
honzabe (edited )LinkI need to sell about a thousand old books, and I am familiar with Flask, so I quickly knocked together a simple app to catalogue them. It is heavily tailored to my needs, which is one of the...I need to sell about a thousand old books, and I am familiar with Flask, so I quickly knocked together a simple app to catalogue them. It is heavily tailored to my needs, which is one of the reasons I did not want to use something like Libid - I needed something that would generate markdown, links to prefill search forms of specific stores where I check prices, etc. If you are a bit technical, you can easily vibe-code something tailored to your needs.
For me, the most important need was avoiding manually writing book titles and authors, and looking up the publisher, year of publishing, and all that stuff. For that, you can use html5-qrcode to scan an ISBN, pass it to the Google Books API to get the book info, and feed that info to the storage of your choice. I use PostgreSQL, but I guess it wouldn't be too difficult to feed it to Google Sheets. Older books don't have barcodes, so I was thinking about using AI to recognize those, but I have not gotten to it yet. I don't have that many books without barcodes, so it does not feel urgent enough.
BTW, all that selling books turned into a surprisingly fun pet project - instead of using some prefabricated online e-shop, I even made my own simple second-hand bookstore that is a static site generated with the Hugo static site generator (with a bit of JavaScript to handle shopping cart, client-side search with Fuse.js, and sending forms via Web3Forms).
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Comment on Europeans recognize Zohran Mamdani’s supposedly radical policies as ‘normal’ in ~society
honzabe (edited )Link ParentI have all kinds of explanations for this (one of them being that it is hard not to feel nostalgic about the times you were young), but after thinking about it for a while, I decided not to go...I have all kinds of explanations for this (one of them being that it is hard not to feel nostalgic about the times you were young), but after thinking about it for a while, I decided not to go into a discussion about them. Instead, if you don't mind, I will share how I feel about this, can I?
It makes me feel really, profoundly sad. It was a cruel, repressive, and unjust regime, and the fact that there are people who would want it back fills me with dread (people like that are in my country, too). It is no coincidence that these are often the same people who are now spreading Russian propaganda and supporting Russia in their aggression against Ukraine - that makes me feel even worse.
I am not sure if you are an American, but if you are, I can guess what you think about MAGA (after all, we are on Tildes). And now imagine that in 25 years, you will read that "54% of respondents over the age of 40 had a positive opinion of the MAGA era in US history", and that it was a better country to live in for people like them.
That's how I feel about it.
Luckily, as the recent elections demonstrated, there is less than 5% of those who are nostalgic enough to actually vote for communists. That gives me some hope.
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Comment on Europeans recognize Zohran Mamdani’s supposedly radical policies as ‘normal’ in ~society
honzabe (edited )Link ParentFive stores? Five stores?! Is that what all the fuss was about? If that is the case, then I have to admit I foolishly fell for some sort of distorted pseudo-reality. If it's just five stores,...Mamdani wants to open "five municipally owned stores, one in each New York City borough", specifically targeting food deserts and "areas with limited access to full-service supermarkets".
Five stores? Five stores?! Is that what all the fuss was about? If that is the case, then I have to admit I foolishly fell for some sort of distorted pseudo-reality. If it's just five stores, forget what I said. I concede, there is nothing "radical" about this. You have my upvote.
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Comment on Europeans recognize Zohran Mamdani’s supposedly radical policies as ‘normal’ in ~society
honzabe (edited )Link ParentTo me, that sounds like the exact equivalent of someone saying "it's ok to say you are a fascist without it being supportive of the Third Reich". Just... no. Fascism and communism were the most...I think it's ok to say you're a communist without it being supportive of the USSR or the PRC.
To me, that sounds like the exact equivalent of someone saying "it's ok to say you are a fascist without it being supportive of the Third Reich". Just... no. Fascism and communism were the most destructive forces in human history, each of them resulting in tens of millions dead. If you want to understand how I feel about being nuanced about any of them, then just think about how you feel when someone is trying to be "nuanced" about fascism.
Orwell is a great example of being an anti-Stalinist communist
To that, I would say [citation needed]. Orwell was a socialist, but labeling him a communist is a bridge too far for me. I am not aware of anything that would suggest he saw himself that way, and everything I am aware suggests he strongly disliked communism and did not separate some theoretical "good" communism from authoritarian communism of the Soviet type, which he clearly warned against.
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Comment on Europeans recognize Zohran Mamdani’s supposedly radical policies as ‘normal’ in ~society
honzabe Link ParentFrom my eastern european viewpoint, I would say it was the best thing that ever happened to us. With the rest of your post, I simply agree.From my eastern european viewpoint, USSR crashing was a universally great thing
From my eastern european viewpoint, I would say it was the best thing that ever happened to us.
With the rest of your post, I simply agree.
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Comment on Europeans recognize Zohran Mamdani’s supposedly radical policies as ‘normal’ in ~society
honzabe (edited )Link ParentBut I am not trying to. I do not think your goals and principles are bad, absolutely not - on the contrary, I totally believe they are noble. I merely suggest you think carefully about methods to...You are not going to convince me that my goals and principles are bad by likening them to communist failures.
But I am not trying to. I do not think your goals and principles are bad, absolutely not - on the contrary, I totally believe they are noble. I merely suggest you think carefully about methods to achieve those goals, because some of them have second-order effects that might not be immediately visible. Those effects might create more poverty. And this would go against your goals and principles, just as it would go against mine.
When I read people like you (by which I mean "ideologically right of centre")
Am I ideologically right of centre? I am for universal health care, robust social security, sufficiently long paid vacation + parental leave, subsidized public transport, free education, progressive taxing, consumer protections against unfair business practices, environmental protection, food quality control, gun control, and gay marriage (that's all I can think of now, but there might be more). In my country, I might be considered slightly right-leaning, but I am pretty sure I would not be considered "right of the centre" by most Americans.
but most of Europe has been politically dominated by centre-right politics for the last few decades
I strongly disagree with this. Perhaps some parts of Europe are turning in that direction in the last few years. But most of Europe? Dominated? Decades? Germany, France, Sweden, Finland, Greece, Italy, Spain? I just don't see it.
I envy your optimism. However, I believe wars often start because of a miscalculation, not because people want them. Did anyone ever think, “A world war sounds like a great idea, let’s start one”? When Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, they did not think they were getting involved in a total global war with years of brutal fighting and nukes at the end. They thought they were giving a divided and decadent democracy a punch in the face, and the US would back off. They deluded themselves into thinking that a single, devastating knockout blow would shatter American morale. Chamberlain deluded himself into believing that giving Hitler the Sudetenland would appease him. Hitler deluded himself into thinking the USSR would fall in months. Putin deluded himself into thinking he could seize Ukraine by a quick military operation, and the spoiled and decadent West will just accept it. Who knows what Trump will delude himself into, but he seems especially gifted in that area.
BTW, some are saying WW3 already started, we are just not calling it that yet, just as they were not calling it WW2 when Hitler invaded Poland.