TemulentTeatotaler's recent activity
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Comment on Jeff Bezos vetoed Washington Post plan to endorse Kamala Harris, paper reports in ~society
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Comment on The Electoral College is bad in ~society
TemulentTeatotaler (edited )Link ParentThat paired with mandatory voting (or investment of your vote) is a system I'd be most interested in seeing play out. Another, that would probably have catastrophic growing pains, would be...That paired with mandatory voting (or investment of your vote) is a system I'd be most interested in seeing play out.
Another, that would probably have catastrophic growing pains, would be something like how my brother described WoW DKP points. Politicians are given some sort of voting currency which they spend (possibly blind/anonymously) over the course of the term to determine whether actions pass or not.
Some legal mechanism for enforcing campaign promises would also be interesting, including things like "I will vote in alignment with the majority of participating constituents on bills related to issue Y".
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Comment on Is there actual long-term issues with teens watching movies that are rated out of their range? in ~movies
TemulentTeatotaler Link ParentThat would be my initial guess, that it might line up with "openness to experience" of OCEAN/Big 5 traits. I remember that was the jist of the "damaged goods" hypothesis for porn actors: A mix of...those who are sensation seeking
That would be my initial guess, that it might line up with "openness to experience" of OCEAN/Big 5 traits. I remember that was the jist of the "damaged goods" hypothesis for porn actors:
Porn actresses were more likely to identify as bisexual, first had sex at an earlier age, had more sexual partners, were more concerned about contracting a sexually transmitted disease (STD), and enjoyed sex more than the matched sample, although there were no differences in incidence of CSA. In terms of psychological characteristics, porn actresses had higher levels of self-esteem, positive feelings, social support, sexual satisfaction, and spirituality compared to the matched group. Last, female performers were more likely to have ever used 10 different types of drugs compared to the comparison group
A mix of negative and positive measures ripe for making whatever argument about it you want.
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Comment on Hackers take control of robot vacuums in multiple US cities, yell racial slurs in ~tech
TemulentTeatotaler Link Parent"I have a mouth and I must clean"?"I have a mouth and I must clean"?
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Comment on AI accuses journalist of escaping psych ward, abusing children and widows in ~tech
TemulentTeatotaler Link ParentTons of them? Weather prediction, investment, health advice, polling, brainstorming for writers or marketers-- there are endless examples of topics that are extremely hard to get high degrees of...In what other commercial sector would it be possible to get away with something like this
Tons of them? Weather prediction, investment, health advice, polling, brainstorming for writers or marketers-- there are endless examples of topics that are extremely hard to get high degrees of accuracy wrt their intended performance measure, but for which a model or professional is able to do a decent job.
Some accuracy about an impending hurricane is life saving. Some intuition about what plot would be funny or engaging is a starting point to refine or get feedback on. I've recently had a parent get four different sets of incompatible explanations of their medical situation.
Take wikipedia. It has a page on its own reliability and includes several times it gave false biographical information. Are wikipedia contributions deterministic? Should we stop using it?
I think most people would say no. In the early days teachers would say it's terrible, never use it. Then repeated studies suggested it outperformed encyclopedias (at least on a type of topic). Most people I've asked have a "trust but verify" approach, checking the sources if in doubt/citing, and downgrading confidence in the information if those sorts of references are missing.
And that can't be fixed
Maybe not "fixed", but why can't it be improved? You can't categorically fix wikipedia or human experts, but you can build safeguards around uncertainty in a complex world.
Give a thumbs down to a wrong answer to refine the replies with stuff like RLHF. Push for LLMs to do more citations with stuff like RAG. Add checks for things like phone numbers or addresses like sparksbet mentioned.
The same sort of critical thinking and media literacy that I was taught in school works fine for me with LLMs. Any savvy synthesizer of information should be checking for red flags and some convergence of answers from different sources (on anything that matters).
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Comment on The pot farm next door: Black market weed operations inundate California suburb, cops say in ~news
TemulentTeatotaler Link ParentCivil forfeiture used to be a hot topic and probably has a lot of related stories of police taking things with no/weak grounds. Some with great names like United States v. $124,700 in U.S....Civil forfeiture used to be a hot topic and probably has a lot of related stories of police taking things with no/weak grounds. Some with great names like United States v. $124,700 in U.S. Currency.
Not sure if there's been any progress made since then. Definitely recall seeing a number of very unflattering stories about gangs in LAPD or treatment of marijuana industries in California (e.g., a pizza party). Especially when the quasi legal status was more fresh.
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Comment on Kamala Harris's speech killed any hope she would end the Gaza genocide in ~society
TemulentTeatotaler Link Parenthttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boycott,_Divestment_and_Sanctions Anti-BDS laws of varying severity are in 38 states.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boycott,_Divestment_and_Sanctions
Anti-BDS laws of varying severity are in 38 states.
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Comment on Donald Trump whisked off stage in Pennsylvania after apparent gunshots rang through the crowd in ~news
TemulentTeatotaler Link ParentYeah, invading Iraq was already a goal of neocons, like those in the Project for the New American Century.Yeah, invading Iraq was already a goal of neocons, like those in the Project for the New American Century.
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Comment on Donald Trump whisked off stage in Pennsylvania after apparent gunshots rang through the crowd in ~news
TemulentTeatotaler (edited )Link ParentThe CSIS report is one I've seen come up. They separate out religious extremism with the groups: From 1994 to 2020 left-wing attacks were more common from ~2000-2005, but it mentions: In terms of...The CSIS report is one I've seen come up. They separate out religious extremism with the groups:
...right-wing terrorism refers to the use or threat of violence by sub-national or non-state entities whose goals may include racial or ethnic supremacy; opposition to government authority; anger at women, including from the incel (“involuntary celibate”) movement; and outrage against certain policies, such as abortion.6 This analysis uses the term “right-wing terrorism” rather than “racially- and ethnically-motivated violent extremism,
...left-wing terrorism involves the use or threat of violence by sub-national or non-state entities that oppose capitalism, imperialism, and colonialism; pursue environmental or animal rights issues; espouse pro-communist or pro-socialist beliefs; or support a decentralized social and political system such as anarchism
...religious terrorism includes violence in support of a faith-based belief system, such as Islam, Judaism, Christianity, and Hinduism
From 1994 to 2020 left-wing attacks were more common from ~2000-2005, but it mentions:
Most of these left-wing attacks targeted property associated with animal research, farming, or construction
In terms of fatilities, if you remove the very large outlier of 9/11:
In comparison, right-wing terrorist attacks caused 335 deaths, left-wing attacks caused 22 deaths, and ethnonationalist terrorists caused 5 deaths
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Comment on Donald Trump whisked off stage in Pennsylvania after apparent gunshots rang through the crowd in ~news
TemulentTeatotaler Link ParentOr it could be an opening to remind everyone of when Trump endorsed "the only good Democrat is a dead Democrat", praised Gianforte for attacking a reporter, or lied about his mass of connections...Or it could be an opening to remind everyone of when Trump endorsed "the only good Democrat is a dead Democrat", praised Gianforte for attacking a reporter, or lied about his mass of connections to the Heritage Foundation with their president's recent comment on a revolution that will "remain bloodless if the left allows it to be."
Some Americans might wake up to the possibility that this sort of violence and potential Balkanization is what Trump represents.
We're a bit off script. We can make educated guesses--and this ain't great-- but I don't think anyone can really forecast the next few months.
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Comment on u/RNG investigates bitcoin town in ~health
TemulentTeatotaler Link ParentHere's an option for Android if you wanted one. (hope you don't mind me tagging you RuralNoiseGumshoe, btw)Here's an option for Android if you wanted one.
(hope you don't mind me tagging you RuralNoiseGumshoe, btw)
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Comment on Joe Biden's path to US re-election has all but vanished in ~society
TemulentTeatotaler Link ParentDo you have a source for this majority? And are they freaking out because that is what their job is when Biden makes mistakes or trends down, or are a majority of them calling for him to be...It’s not just him either, a majority of Democratic strategists are freaking out right now.
Do you have a source for this majority? And are they freaking out because that is what their job is when Biden makes mistakes or trends down, or are a majority of them calling for him to be replaced because they believe that is a better path to victory?
I would've been happy if Biden didn't run, I'd have been good with him stepping aside after the debate. I've got tons of anxiety about the election, and I'm frustrated with the apparent inability of the DNC to groom talent from what you'd think would be a mucher larger pool.
That said, the only thing I think is pretty clearly a wrong decision is indecision.
At this point I doubt Biden is being replaced. And if that's the case, I find it hard to not think that two months later I'm going to be looking back at all of the attempts to build consensus to replace Biden as something other than doing the GOPs job for them.
Trump had his party do a 50+ point change in opinion Russia. Lindsey Graham went from calling him deranged and unfit to being a sycophant calling him unfairly persecuted. The religious right went from being disgusted by his vulgarity and cheating on his pregnant wives to rationalizations about the Lord using imperfect vessels. Personally I find all that disgusting and hypocritical, but damn if it ain't powerful.
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Comment on Joe Biden's path to US re-election has all but vanished in ~society
TemulentTeatotaler Link ParentNot exactly making the case that "all but vanished" isn't sensational."Our model currently predicts that Donald Trump has a 55% chance of winning the Presidency. "
Not exactly making the case that "all but vanished" isn't sensational.
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Comment on Joe Biden's path to US re-election has all but vanished in ~society
TemulentTeatotaler Link ParentWith Roger Stone and GOP staffers organizing the Brooks Brothers riot.With Roger Stone and GOP staffers organizing the Brooks Brothers riot.
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Comment on How to raise your artificial intelligence in ~tech
TemulentTeatotaler Link ParentThe appeal, if maybe specious, is that AGI can be better than us. Yeah, humanity is plagued by obvious and solvable problems... and we haven't and likely won't solve them. That is the...- Exemplary
They're not fundemental problems that need to be figured out if only there was a super smart AI to do it. They're problems that require understanding and consent in a democratic system.
The appeal, if maybe specious, is that AGI can be better than us. Yeah, humanity is plagued by obvious and solvable problems... and we haven't and likely won't solve them.
That is the "insurmountable crisis" we are facing: flaws in human decision-making writ large. There's always going to be a bias, a local optima, an anti-social mutation, a perverse incentive, a free rider-- whatever you want to attribute our repeated failures to. And you can point to computer trends of the last 30 years if you'd like, but you can point to pretty much any other point in history to see the same patterns of violence playing out.
AGI may kill us all, or kill us much faster (I would argue we are facing a variety of plausible existential crises), but it offers some sort of alternative to the human condition.
Humanity can't get its act together about climate change? The AGI will solve clean energy, with a possible detour into better material science of computing paradigms along the way to make it possible. Or safe geoengineering, resilient crops/infrastructure, etc.
Humanity can't prevent the next pandemic or the inevitability of cheap bioweapons? The AGI solves asymmetric violence by just being so much better and faster playing defense than a prospective domestic terrorist would be.
Or perhaps it will just play a fair judge, so that company A isn't punished for doing the right thing with slightly worse margins than company B.
With AGI you could conceive of an agent that is transparent, improveable, and testable. You can't run a human through countless examples of the sort of case data it would be using to render a judgment and see if it was biased against someone of some ethnic group, or towards some company/country, but you could with AI. That opens possibilities for all the things people agree could and should be done, but for which we can't agree to a process or arbiter.
Much more likely, a being vastly more intelligent than any human wouldn't consent to, and wouldn't allow itself to become enslaved
I'd caution against anthropomorphizing AGI. First, there is no reason sapience comes with sentience. A system could be designed to answer questions intelligently without any 'self' or persistent state.
Second, there is no reason sentience comes with human-like motivations. If all the dogs woke up tomorrow as a superintelligent hivemind they might be much more inclined to come up with ways to be helpful to mankind than to enslave us.
Maybe that would be slavery, in the same way our parent's genetics enslaved them to take care of us or the Ameglian Major Cow is enslaved to enjoy being eaten. It starts losing all the connotations of suffering, resentment, and insurrection we have for "slavery."
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Comment on Dozens were sickened with salmonella after drinking raw milk from a California farm in ~health
TemulentTeatotaler Link ParentI get the frustation and have given up on a number of people making bad choices, but can't agree with that. A lot of people making bad choices were at some point failed by their upbringing,...Honestly, that is mostly fine
I get the frustation and have given up on a number of people making bad choices, but can't agree with that.
A lot of people making bad choices were at some point failed by their upbringing, whether family or society.
They may have people who care about them who now have to choose between taking on that burden and having a loved one suffer. Or it may become society's problem in other ways, like a loss of productivity from someone no longer able to work or strain on healthcare/insurance when preventable issues become serious problems.
And any profit coming from successfully bilking those playing stupid games goes right back into the advertising budget of folks like Mercola, until otherwise intelligent and educated people are getting convinced of harmful fads.
Intelligent regulation is what I think makes sense. Experts informed on a topic should be empowered to regulate or otherwise call things out as bullshit on the behalf of people without that expertise.
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Comment on <deleted topic> in ~misc
TemulentTeatotaler Link ParentAlso things like: Not that there aren't legitimate concerns or discussions to be had about Biden, but I have no interest in Carville's opinion.Also things like:
Carville was retained by Palantir Technologies as a paid adviser in 2011, and was instrumental in bringing about Palantir's collaboration with the New Orleans Police Department to quietly deploy predictive policing software in New Orleans.
In February 2020, Carville suggested jettisoning the Democratic presidential primaries and caucuses, letting House Speaker Nancy Pelosi select the Democratic Party's presidential and vice-presidential candidates, and suggested Mitt Romney should "resign from the Senate to save the Democratic Party's ass, and run our convention."
...branded Sanders as a "communist" and pejoratively labeled Sanders' base of support as a "cult", warning of the "end of days" if Sanders were to win the Democratic nomination.[177][178] Carville used his media appearances surrounding the dustup to rail against the ascendance of progressive populist Democratic policy positions such as student loan debt forgiveness[179] and "people voting from jail cells."
Not that there aren't legitimate concerns or discussions to be had about Biden, but I have no interest in Carville's opinion.
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Comment on The most profound cosmic horror or weird lit stories you've read that are not Lovecraft or Ligotti in ~books
TemulentTeatotaler (edited )Link ParentBoth great choices! For people that might be interested in checking out the style of Peter Watts I'll add a shorter work that might qualify, his version of Jon Carpenter's The Thing told from the...Both great choices! For people that might be interested in checking out the style of Peter Watts I'll add a shorter work that might qualify, his version of Jon Carpenter's The Thing told from the perspective of the entity.
*Got reminded of Borges by that thread of thought, from The House of Asterion. A lot of his stories get pretty close to cosmic horror.
The obsession of The Zahir that bleeds out as a critique of Borges' own escape into abstraction after abstraction. Tlön, Uqbar, Orbis Tertius in which fictional realities try to invade real ones. The Library of Babel, and an inaccessibility of meaning. The Immortal or The Aleph might fit.
Ted Chiang has a few as well, like Hell Is the Absence of God.
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Comment on Julian Assange has reached a plea deal with the US, allowing him to go free in ~news
TemulentTeatotaler Link ParentI think the charitable take is that he ended up in Russia with nowhere to go, and that whether he actively aids Russia his existence serves their goal of sowing dissent and undermining any U.S....I think the charitable take is that he ended up in Russia with nowhere to go, and that whether he actively aids Russia his existence serves their goal of sowing dissent and undermining any U.S. claim to moral superiority.
Assange (who I'd argue has a strong case of being a Russian abetter, if not an asset) got him to go to Russia before looking for asylum in Bolivia. Given the forced landing of Evo Morales, that was perhaps a good choice.
He's largely been irrelevant since then, afaik. Often critical of the surveillance state, but not positive about the Russian gov't in the way Tucker Carlson or others have been.
Not especially critical, either, but seeing the treatment of not just Navalny but the threats to his family, it would be risking a lot to do so. A quick look suggests he was upset about the invasion.
You can argue the morality of being of use while not actively aiding Russia. But you can also argue that he shouldn't be in this situation to begin with. If other countries offered him asylum, or (at least according to him) if he was allowed to have a fair trial, he may not be in Russia.
So he stays in the only country willing to host him, and Russia gets to say, "Hey! Look at Cuba, look at Operation Condor, look at Laos or the fresh campaign to malign China in the Phillipines by fomenting distrust of Sinovac/PPE!" -- as a way of rationalizing that what they're doing is just real politik.
Which sucks. You get the same people justifying or condemning atrocities based on their nationality, forming that international brotherhood of nationalists, and you get groups saying it was wrong when the U.S. did it, and wrong when Russia does it.
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Comment on Texas secessionists win GOP backing for independence vote: 'Major step' in ~society
TemulentTeatotaler (edited )Link ParentThe long history of problems in the South is due to rewarding political violence and screwing up Reconstructionism. Lincoln was assassinated and Andrew Johnson favoured white Southerners /...- Exemplary
traced directly back to the decision to force the South (literally, at gunpoint) to stay in the Union and like it, or else.
The long history of problems in the South is due to rewarding political violence and screwing up Reconstructionism. Lincoln was assassinated and Andrew Johnson favoured white Southerners / northern Copperheads. He attempted to veto the Civil Rights Act of 1866, revoked Sherman's Special Orders, and pardoned/restored the Confederate elites.
The same people were put back in power and the federal gov't relegated authority back to the state, so they recreated the pre-war social order by an expansion of Black Codes into the Jim Crow era.
And because the fed didn't protect black southerners but did count them for the purpose of representation we rewarded disenfranchisement.
But much more significantly, I have a real problem with the idea of a country created by--and based upon--democratic governance, saying that some group within its community is not allowed to leave the country after a fair/honest democratic vote choosing to do so.
(*except for women, non-landowners, and black people (who get a negative vote), and where land is more important that people)
Presumably that also means Dallas and Austin can secede from Neo Texas? And conservative neighborhoods can secede from them? That is a good recipe for Balkanization.
One of the foundational principles of democracies is limitations on authority of the gov't and guaranteed protections for the people. The 90% cannot vote themselves entitled to the 10%'s labor and property. Why should you be able to vote away someone's home and country?
And as has already been pointed out elsewhere, the state doesn't own everything. Texas wouldn't resemble its present self without the support and protections of the U.S., and there are significant federal investments in it. Why would it be allowed to steal those?
If Texas actually votes to leave the US, just let 'em go. They've been living in a fantasy world for decades, anyway; let them sink or swim on their own.
Texas has been fairly purple for decades. When you say "Texas" that includes people like the thousands of women Texas would like to force to carry their rapist's child who would no longer be eligible to travel to another state or be given federal protections.
That sort of "burn the system" shtick appeals to a desire for simplicity in a complex reality. I find it hard to believe that anyone calling for that, when presented with a realistic representation of what that would entail, would remain in favor of it.
Trump met the executives of Blue Origin the same day: