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Suggestions for non-fiction books about the decay and decline of human civilisation?
Need suggestions on books on the topic of decay/decline/end of human civilisation
I have read Richard Heinberg's End of Growth
edit: no fiction please
Well I don’t think humankind is decaying at all. So here’s a book that basically says the opposite of what you’re looking for: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature
arent we running out of cheap and plentiful energy and other resources and isnt the arctic albedo effect a huge destabilising factor?
Anthropogenic climate change is going to make the Earth significantly less habitable for humans and the rest of the species on this planet, yes.
how long until catastrophic breakdown of organised society?
We don’t even know if that will happen in the way you describe.
Sorry, this chain made me cynical and sad about political discussion on this forum.
To recap:
The sorry was to you because you tried to offer some challenge to the OP. Most of this is in response to the OP.
That’s okay. I’m coming to terms with the fact that most of our discussions on subjects like society and politics will eventually end in unjustified pessimism.
I do not appreciate a lack of nuance. The idea that we are doomed to failure seems like a given to many, but not for me.
You are correct that we don't know for sure what will happen or how, in response to anthropogenic climate change. I want to take a moment and paint a picture on how "catastrophic breakdown of organized society" could happen, and how real of a possibility it is. So how could this happen? Well we need to look at the various effects global mean temperature increase will have, and their secondary consequences therein.
Crop Failure
As mean temperatures increase, habitable zones for crops will shift or disappear. Staple crops that have grown in areas for centuries will become inviable.
Sea Level Rise
Global ice reserves, ice caps, glaciers and polar ice are melting at an increasing rate. The total sea level rise is still heavily debated in the scientific community, but to get an idea of what varying amounts of sea level rise would look like you can use this tool from NOAA. According to the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, sea levels will at the least rise by 0.29m and at most 1.1m. Many in the scientific community see this as a conservative estimate, reports from NOAA and The National Academy of Sciences suggest more drastic increases. Another report from NOAA predicts that there will be intense variation in sea level rise based on location, as much as 30%, based on various factors. OK, the oceans are rising, so what? Well here's what:
Increase in Weather Extremes
When talking about Climate Change, we discuss increases in mean temperatures to the tenth decimal. Tiny increases in temperature will cause massive impact, but in some areas temperatures will increase so much as to make them uninhabitable for humans and other wildlife. In others, the magnitude and frequency of severe weather including hail, tornadoes and tropical storms will all increase.
Connecting the Dots
Honestly, I can see any one of the several direct impacts of anthropological climate change causing major societal disorder, economic and governmental collapse, and geopolitical instability.
Conclusion
There are a lot of other direct, secondary and indirect effects of anthropogenic climate change I haven't listed here. These are just the big ones that come to mind right now. As I stated before, in my personal opinion I believe climate change will create catastrophes that test the endurance of humanity as it is now. We must take immediate, drastic action to avoid such results. Some experts say that some of this is now unavoidable, I tend to agree.
Sorry @cpriest, I kind of hijacked this thread, hope you don't mind. I'm super passionate about this stuff and felt the need to contribute a bit. I tried not to write an entire book, but if I did, I'd recommend it in your thread.
It’ll be a shitstorm, no question about it. But maybe, just maybe, our governments and international organizations will evolve in the meantime, creating a political and social structure capable of maintaining order and minimizing the impact of the tragedy.
I have no reason to think we won’t increase the scope of our collective empathy and perfect our institutions for the better in next 100 years. That’s what we’ve been doing for at least two centuries.
The implied problem is that we need to evolve now, for some it is already too late. People are already being displaced, millions of climate refugees have been created, islands destroyed. When are we to act? When the comfortable, western world is finally being impacted on the same scale? Not only will that be entirely too late, it will be irreversible. Can you show me where there has been a concerted, effective international effort to stem the causes of climate change? I think of the IPCC, the cries of scientists, it's just being ignored seemingly. I think of the Paris Accords and how America has pulled out and how it most likely will not create the drastic change needed.
Change is frequently accompanied by apparent step backs. Napoleon became emperor after the French Revolution. The Brazilian Military Dictatorship followed the progressive João Goulart. Salvador Allende had the same fate in Chile. The atrocities of the Nazi rule were one the main motivations for the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
One should be cautious to extrapolate from their own personal impressions to ascertain what’s going to happen next, because you may be drawing conclusions from a very limited time period.
Yes, everything can go to shit, but that’s not guaranteed (and in the case of global warming I’m not talking about avoiding it, but mitigating its social effects. I think you misinterpreted that aspect of my previous comment).
From a historical standpoint, I believe humankind will probably improve in the next 100 years, both socially and politically. This is not to say that we are fine and dandy, but Universal Human Rights do exist. In most civilized world, democracy replaced absolutism, slavery is illegal, children are educated instead of explored for labor, women have more freedom than 50 years ago and being gay is not a death sentence. We also have plumbing, antibiotics, and modern medicine.
We must improve these in a number of ways, but we are doing a bunch of things better and it is quite possible that we’ll continue to do so.
Yes, I don't know the correct terminology but there are some tipping points and we are going to cross them in the near future.
So all I was asking was how much time do we have left until catastrophic crop failure or until the arctic is ice free in summers and and the climate change equation is taken out of our hands
We actually don’t know. The entire planet is too big of a system to make a precise prediction. While a bit old, this book provides a few educated guesses: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Degrees:_Our_Future_on_a_Hotter_Planet
we are running out of resources, society is gonna break down sooner or later
That is just an assumption...
I recently read Emily St. John Mandel's Station Eleven which is about a flu outbreak that wipes out most of earth's population. I don't know if it would fit what you're looking for though, as it's far more character-focused than big picture-focused. I went into it wanting to read a tale about a pandemic but instead got something quite different. It was still good, mind you, but it didn't quite scratch the exact itch I wanted it to.
Similarly, Jose Saramago's Blindness is a compelling (and controversial) read about the breakdown of society in a city where everyone has suddenly gone blind. I read it quite a while ago, so it's hard to know what I'd think of it now, but at the time I read it I couldn't put it down. It's again, less big-picture focused than you might be wanting, but I mention it along with Station Eleven just in case either one sounds interesting to you.
thanks for the reply. have edited the post.
Most (All?) comments seem to be focused on the current human civilization. There are any number of well-documented historical examples of the decline and decay of civilizations, Rome being perhaps the prime example, but also Egypt, the Mayans, the Aztecs, the Minoans, etc.
The interconnectedness and global nature of modern civilization may be unprecedented (at least in degree), but our current predicament(s) are not that different from many historic superpowers.
All that said, my favorite du jour is 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed, by Eric Cline
Here's a youtube-lecture version of the book, if you prefer ... https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bRcu-ysocX4
is this guy credible? read some reviews where he is portrayed as a lunatic
conclusion? that we are the virus or our system capitalism is to blame?
Industrial Society and Its Future
(not a book though)
Jared Diamons set of books on the subject may be right up your alley
One of these days I'm going to set aside some time to read Oswald Spengler's "The Decline of the West". From what I've read about it it seems like a fascinating book at least.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Decline_of_the_West
can i just jump in or do i need to have some background in philosophy or some other stuff?
I think you can just jump in. The book is 100+ years old so the language might be a bit archaic and some references/context that would be obvious for someone of that time may be hard to get.
I'm partway through The Ecotechnic Future, and I'm enjoying it.
I appreciate how the author tries to study human societies real and imagined through an ecological lens, referring to concepts like overshoot, succession, seres and climax communities.