26 votes

Canada's oil windfall may yet wipe out its losses from tariffs

22 comments

  1. [20]
    Wafik
    Link
    And if you can't trust Trump, the moron who got into this war for reasons, then who can you trust? I guess it's good for some parts of Canada? I don't love us pumping more of our dirty oil out or...

    Trump on Wednesday assured voters that "right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward."

    And if you can't trust Trump, the moron who got into this war for reasons, then who can you trust?

    I guess it's good for some parts of Canada? I don't love us pumping more of our dirty oil out or this propping up the traitor Premier in Alberta...

    14 votes
    1. [3]
      Exemplary
      Link Parent
      Only Trump could run on a reform platform when he is the incumbent.

      Only Trump could run on a reform platform when he is the incumbent.

      11 votes
      1. [2]
        lynxy
        Link Parent
        What do you mean? That's the conservative manifesto in every damned country. Blame the left (even if they were last in power over a decade before), claim that they'll change things after the next...

        What do you mean? That's the conservative manifesto in every damned country. Blame the left (even if they were last in power over a decade before), claim that they'll change things after the next election, and then utterly refuse to try when they get in again.

        8 votes
        1. CptBluebear
          Link Parent
          Tried and true. Works even outside of the US. The amount of people complaining about leftist policies here in the Netherlands is staggering. Especially when the last explicitly left cabinet was in...

          Tried and true. Works even outside of the US.

          The amount of people complaining about leftist policies here in the Netherlands is staggering. Especially when the last explicitly left cabinet was in 1977.
          There were other left parties in the ruling cabinet after but always with a right or center right party next to them.

          Still, everything bad with the country is supposedly because of leftists..

          13 votes
    2. [16]
      Aldehyde
      Link Parent
      I’m not too familiar with US politics. How significant is this election? Isn’t the president’s term 4 years long?

      I’m not too familiar with US politics. How significant is this election? Isn’t the president’s term 4 years long?

      1. [14]
        Gazook89
        Link Parent
        The republican party is wholly owned by trump at this point. He and his super PACs have enormous amounts of money to support or tear down other republicans. So every republican candidate is a...

        The republican party is wholly owned by trump at this point. He and his super PACs have enormous amounts of money to support or tear down other republicans. So every republican candidate is a surrogate for him, and if they get elected it means people still like trump and want to enable him as much as possible.

        If he doesn't maintain the house and senate (and it's very very close if you are just looking at the seats), then theoretically it becomes more difficult to do the bad stuff. Now, that's theoretical, because nothing about 'norms' seems to apply to him and maybe he'll just have enough democratic politicians arrested before they can take their seats.

        10 votes
        1. [13]
          skybrian
          Link Parent
          That would be unprecedented and cause a constitutional crisis.

          That would be unprecedented and cause a constitutional crisis.

          3 votes
          1. [9]
            Gazook89
            Link Parent
            Oh no, you mean he’d be breaking the law? Trump? He would do something unprecedented?

            Oh no, you mean he’d be breaking the law? Trump? He would do something unprecedented?

            15 votes
            1. updawg
              Link Parent
              God forbid he violate the Constitution and flip what it says on its head.

              God forbid he violate the Constitution and flip what it says on its head.

              1 vote
            2. [7]
              skybrian
              Link Parent
              He can't do it himself. The question is, who would he order to make the arrests and would they actually go along with it?

              He can't do it himself. The question is, who would he order to make the arrests and would they actually go along with it?

              1. ThrowdoBaggins
                Link Parent
                I feel like he’s been building a whole shadow police force with loose morals and high allegiance to himself for a while now. I’m having more trouble imagining ICE resisting or refusing to...

                I feel like he’s been building a whole shadow police force with loose morals and high allegiance to himself for a while now. I’m having more trouble imagining ICE resisting or refusing to cooperate if we ever get to the point of Trump calling for politicians’ arrest. But maybe I’m too pessimistic and actually people are more likely to be sensible about not going that far.

                3 votes
              2. [5]
                snake_case
                Link Parent
                He very nearly invalidated the 2020 election results by inciting a crowdfunded insurrection. I think he has even more support now. He wouldn’t need police he would just get his followers to...

                He very nearly invalidated the 2020 election results by inciting a crowdfunded insurrection. I think he has even more support now. He wouldn’t need police he would just get his followers to disrupt any voting thats not in his favor.

                2 votes
                1. [4]
                  skybrian
                  (edited )
                  Link Parent
                  There are approximately 100,000 voting locations in the US, so it might be a big job. He attempted to disrupt vote by mail, but the Supreme Court ruled against it..

                  There are approximately 100,000 voting locations in the US, so it might be a big job.

                  He attempted to disrupt vote by mail, but the Supreme Court ruled against it..

                  1 vote
                  1. [3]
                    snake_case
                    Link Parent
                    no I mean like, get a massive crowd of people to go and disrupt an actual Senate vote

                    no I mean like, get a massive crowd of people to go and disrupt an actual Senate vote

                    1. [2]
                      skybrian
                      Link Parent
                      I wonder how the Capitol Police changed since the riot?

                      I wonder how the Capitol Police changed since the riot?

                      1. snake_case
                        Link Parent
                        Dunno seems like they would have made better protocols to keep themselves out of danger since then, so they could just sit the next one out for their own safety or it could go the other way. I...

                        Dunno seems like they would have made better protocols to keep themselves out of danger since then, so they could just sit the next one out for their own safety or it could go the other way. I hope it works out for us I just can see how it might not.

          2. [3]
            chocobean
            Link Parent
            I would have thought a triple threat of economic war on biggest ally causing ripples across NATO, assassination of foreign president followed by propping up family to plunder, and a going nowhere...

            I would have thought a triple threat of economic war on biggest ally causing ripples across NATO, assassination of foreign president followed by propping up family to plunder, and a going nowhere and domestically economically disastrous war in the middle east without Congress approval would have triggered a constitutional crisis. At this point I'm convinced every check and balance in America is broken, and him arresting a few people on trumped up charges is extremely small potatoes in comparison. Charges don't even have to stick: it's just swift boat veterans and Hilary emails all over again.

            I have completely lost faith in the American system: they're not going to fix anything we are talking about making things slightly less bad slower only. Anything short of him dying from ill health isn't enough of a trigger.

            7 votes
            1. [2]
              skybrian
              Link Parent
              Polls are looking good for Democrats. Of course, they could be wrong, but I wouldn't lose hope yet.

              Polls are looking good for Democrats. Of course, they could be wrong, but I wouldn't lose hope yet.

              2 votes
              1. chocobean
                Link Parent
                I'm definitely rooting for good outcomes, yeah

                I'm definitely rooting for good outcomes, yeah

                2 votes
      2. moonwalker
        Link Parent
        Here's a good video about the war and how the election is important. TLDW: Canada is going to force the election to be a referendum.

        Here's a good video about the war and how the election is important.

        TLDW: Canada is going to force the election to be a referendum.

        1 vote
  2. chocobean
    Link
    In early 2025, when Mark Carney was running for Canadian prime minister, with the Liberals in scandal + public ire + leadership freefall, many points behind the Conservatives, Carney said Canada...

    "I know for sure that countries in East Asia are seriously looking at Canada for that energy security and diversification. That is unlocking long-term investment."

    In early 2025, when Mark Carney was running for Canadian prime minister, with the Liberals in scandal + public ire + leadership freefall, many points behind the Conservatives, Carney said Canada has what it takes to become a major world power. I thought it was ridiculous hogwash at the time: it's optimistic to view ourselves as middle of the pack when all we seem to do is sell raw resources then buy finished goods back more expensive.

    Instead of a buoy bobbing along the wake of giant passing ships, somehow we are on the way to becoming a unifying voice of reason, the sane trustworthy middle agent for all trade between Asia and Europe, and actually becoming an energy superpower.

    I'm still very suspicious of Carney on how much he really cares about our environment, on our indigenous first Nations rights, and if his goal is to just privatize everything + austerity for the masses. But internationally, I have to hand it to him: we sure didn't blow up the middle east but Carney primed us ready to capitalize on the collapse.

    8 votes
  3. skybrian
    Link
    From the article: [...] [...] [...] [...] [...] [...]

    From the article:

    While Canadians are also feeling the impact of fluctuating oil prices — both at the pump and as it gets absorbed into shipping costs — the windfall from those profits could boost the overall economy enough to offset the cost of Trump's tariffs, with some provincial governments even projecting a turnaround on their deficits.

    [...]

    Economist Jim Stanford, director of the Centre for Future Work in Vancouver, estimates that the second quarter after-tax profits of the whole industry, upstream and downstream, doubled those of its first quarter, to come in at about $23 billion. (Of course, while Americans paid for most of that windfall, Canadian consumers also had to pay more at the pump.)

    [...]

    Alberta has already ridden the Iran war's oil bonanza to a complete reversal of its financial fortunes, moving from a projected $9.4-billion deficit to a $2-billion surplus.

    Newfoundland and Labrador was projecting a $668-million deficit this year. This week, Finance Minister Craig Pardy told CBC News "we're looking at $500 million plus to our coffers as a result of the upswing in oil," bringing the province much closer to balance. Prices now look set to remain well above the province's budget estimate of $79 US per barrel for some time.

    [...]

    The federal government stands to benefit, too, mostly through corporate and personal income taxes. Tyler Meredith, former economic advisor to the Trudeau government, told CBC News that every $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil translates into about $2 billion of additional revenue for the federal government — "a pretty substantial benefit."

    [...]

    U.S. tariffs affect about $28 billion worth of goods, so at first glance the oil windfall appears inadequate to compensate for tariff losses. But some tariffed goods will continue to trade, because U.S. buyers need them and lack alternatives. Other goods will find different markets, either in Canada or abroad.

    [...]

    Offshore oil production in Newfoundland and Labrador is already up about 25 per cent this year.

    [...]

    Already, U.S. tariffs fall much more heavily on manufacturing provinces such as Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia than they do on Alberta and Saskatchewan.

    Higher prices will put even more pressure on industries that consume a lot of energy, such as manufacturing and transportation. High energy prices also tend to spill over into inflation in food and consumer goods, at a time when many Canadian families are already feeling stretched to make ends meet.

    But high oil prices should also relieve downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, allowing for cheaper imports, which can partly counteract inflationary pressure on the cost of living.

    6 votes