The U.S. COVID-19 vaccination program has gone from zero to 50% in less than six months.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the Biden administration said, half of the country's adults are now fully vaccinated against the coronavirus.
"This is a major milestone in our country's vaccination efforts," Andy Slavitt, a White House senior adviser on the COVID-19 response, said during a midday briefing. "The number was 1% when we entered office Jan. 20."
Nearly 130 million people age 18 and older have completed their vaccine regimens since the first doses were administered to the public in December, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.
An increasing number of states, businesses and organizations are offering incentives for people to get vaccinated, from free doughnuts to free airline flights. One of the best-known programs is in Ohio, where people who get vaccinated are entered into a $1 million lottery called the Ohio Vax-a-Million.
The lowest overall vaccination rates in the U.S. remain in the South, where Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana and Arkansas have administered the fewest doses per 100,000 adults, according to the CDC. The highest rates are in Vermont, Massachusetts, Hawaii and Connecticut
In other words: 35% of the total population is fully vaccinated. Soon we're going to hit a plateau for adult vaccinations, unless it becomes flat-out mandatory. I've overheard nurses debating...
In other words: 35% of the total population is fully vaccinated. Soon we're going to hit a plateau for adult vaccinations, unless it becomes flat-out mandatory. I've overheard nurses debating whether to get vaccinated.
It's a great start, but we're still a ways off. It'll get much better once kids can get vaccinated.
Remember that people who caught COVID (quite a number in the US!) also either perished or have antibodies, which evidently lasts for a rather long time, perhaps even a lifetime, and will also...
My prediction is that a "herd immunity" of around 75% will be reached in the northeast and a few other areas by the end of the summer
Every COVID metric has been falling in the US, and it's certainly not because more people have started masking or social distancing. I think if we get 75% of adults vaccinated in conjunction with the people who have immunity from catching the disease (there is overlap, of course), it'll be the beginning of the end for COVID as an epidemic in the US.
I live in semi-rural Georgia and am vaccinated. I feel pretty comfortable going places now without a mask, mainly because so many people here YOLO'd it from the very beginning. I know this isn't...
I live in semi-rural Georgia and am vaccinated. I feel pretty comfortable going places now without a mask, mainly because so many people here YOLO'd it from the very beginning. I know this isn't based on science or anything, but I feel like most of the people here who were going to get it have had it, or are okay with the consequences of getting it.
Everyone in my circle of friends/acquaintances/co-workers has either had it, was directly exposed to it, or has been vaccinated. Our kids have been in-person schooling all year, so I'd be shocked if they haven't been exposed to it at some point.
All of that to say, I'd be shocked if we weren't close to 'herd immunity' here in our smallish town.
Officially the US had 10% of the population catch covid. 0.2% of the population died from covid (negligible enough to ignore for this math). If we naively assume that the population that caught...
Officially the US had 10% of the population catch covid. 0.2% of the population died from covid (negligible enough to ignore for this math). If we naively assume that the population that caught covid is similar to the population that is getting vaccinated then you can add (1 - total population vaccination rate) * total population infection rate = 5% to the current immunity percentage.
It's probably the case that if you're likely to get vaccinated you're less likely to have caught covid, so it's more than a 5% boost. And people will continue to catch covid as they resist vaccines, adding to the natural-immunity population.
Confirmed cases is a severe underestimate. A lot of people never have symptoms or any reason to get tested. How many people really got it is unknown but it's estimated at 3-5x official numbers....
Confirmed cases is a severe underestimate. A lot of people never have symptoms or any reason to get tested. How many people really got it is unknown but it's estimated at 3-5x official numbers. The CDC's estimate is 4.3x or about 115 million infected as of April.
On top of @skybrian's point about underestimates, there is another self-reinforcing effect rarely talked about: those most likely to catch COVID, are those most likely to have caught it. In effect...
On top of @skybrian's point about underestimates, there is another self-reinforcing effect rarely talked about: those most likely to catch COVID, are those most likely to have caught it.
In effect this shows up as what @ras mentions above: if you're surrounded by people who don't take precautions, most of them are more likely to have caught it and now have antibodies.
This is the primary reason why superspreader events become nonexistent as time passes and are now a non-issue in most countries. (And are still a huge risk in eg Australia which is just went back into lockdown for a week)
Weird that DC is so low.
In other words: 35% of the total population is fully vaccinated. Soon we're going to hit a plateau for adult vaccinations, unless it becomes flat-out mandatory. I've overheard nurses debating whether to get vaccinated.
It's a great start, but we're still a ways off. It'll get much better once kids can get vaccinated.
Remember that people who caught COVID (quite a number in the US!) also either perished or have antibodies, which evidently lasts for a rather long time, perhaps even a lifetime, and will also contribute to the herd immunity percentage.
Every COVID metric has been falling in the US, and it's certainly not because more people have started masking or social distancing. I think if we get 75% of adults vaccinated in conjunction with the people who have immunity from catching the disease (there is overlap, of course), it'll be the beginning of the end for COVID as an epidemic in the US.
I live in semi-rural Georgia and am vaccinated. I feel pretty comfortable going places now without a mask, mainly because so many people here YOLO'd it from the very beginning. I know this isn't based on science or anything, but I feel like most of the people here who were going to get it have had it, or are okay with the consequences of getting it.
Everyone in my circle of friends/acquaintances/co-workers has either had it, was directly exposed to it, or has been vaccinated. Our kids have been in-person schooling all year, so I'd be shocked if they haven't been exposed to it at some point.
All of that to say, I'd be shocked if we weren't close to 'herd immunity' here in our smallish town.
Officially the US had 10% of the population catch covid. 0.2% of the population died from covid (negligible enough to ignore for this math). If we naively assume that the population that caught covid is similar to the population that is getting vaccinated then you can add
(1 - total population vaccination rate) * total population infection rate = 5%to the current immunity percentage.It's probably the case that if you're likely to get vaccinated you're less likely to have caught covid, so it's more than a 5% boost. And people will continue to catch covid as they resist vaccines, adding to the natural-immunity population.
Confirmed cases is a severe underestimate. A lot of people never have symptoms or any reason to get tested. How many people really got it is unknown but it's estimated at 3-5x official numbers. The CDC's estimate is 4.3x or about 115 million infected as of April.
If that’s the case we are almost at herd immunity.
On top of @skybrian's point about underestimates, there is another self-reinforcing effect rarely talked about: those most likely to catch COVID, are those most likely to have caught it.
In effect this shows up as what @ras mentions above: if you're surrounded by people who don't take precautions, most of them are more likely to have caught it and now have antibodies.
This is the primary reason why superspreader events become nonexistent as time passes and are now a non-issue in most countries. (And are still a huge risk in eg Australia which is just went back into lockdown for a week)