I think (and hope) that if Trump makes it to the election without being in prison, that he will lose in a landslide. Risks to this are: The unbelievable stupidity of the average voter The sheer...
I think (and hope) that if Trump makes it to the election without being in prison, that he will lose in a landslide. Risks to this are:
The unbelievable stupidity of the average voter
The sheer amount of cheating and gaming of the system done by the Republican party.
Also as mentioned in the article, Trump is not doing this alone, there is a lot of support for this mess by a large basket of deplorables.
Here is a simple prediction: If Trump is elected, we are going to see unrest in the country unlike anything seen since the 1960s. There will be massive protests by people who really know that the election was stolen. There will be massive crackdowns and overreactions by a increasingly authoritarian state. Groups of marginalized people will be openly and more brazenly attacked. There will be increased open corruption and division. The economy will tank because of the chaos and because republican economic ideas only work for a tiny handful at the top. It won't be fun.
I don’t know about the sustained unrest and protests. I thought that Trump supporters would engage in ongoing violence if he lost the election in 2020. January 6 happened, and maybe the aftermath...
I don’t know about the sustained unrest and protests. I thought that Trump supporters would engage in ongoing violence if he lost the election in 2020. January 6 happened, and maybe the aftermath deflated their will to act, but this is a sizable group of unhinged people with violent fantasies who believe 100% that the election was stolen and they haven’t done much of anything in the 3 years since.
I do think there will be a loud and angry response from those opposed to Trump if he wins and there is credible evidence of theft, but I expect it to be more of a Women’s March kind of thing. Massive groups of people showing up to a one day protest on a weekend to voice their displeasure, and then they go home.
The rest of it (increased authoritarianism, attacks on marginalized people, corruption, division) all seems likely, though.
I think the big thing to remember is the lack of ability for a lot of these people. Yes, they're good at fooling people. But that doesn't translate to an ability to organise and coordinate people....
I think the big thing to remember is the lack of ability for a lot of these people. Yes, they're good at fooling people. But that doesn't translate to an ability to organise and coordinate people. Some are worried that Trumps incompetency will be the worst thing about his presidency, but imagine how much worse things would be if we had a Trump figure who knew what he was doing.
Imagine someone able to rile up a large part of the country and actually harness that movement for something other than petty grifting. A genuine competent ideologue with Trump's views (racist, misogynist, classist, etc) is much scarier than what Trump is: a petty grifter who knows what to say to get people's attention.
Keep in mind that a number of competent authoritarians and grifters have jumped on Trump's bandwagon. Stephen Miller, Ron DeSanctis, Mike Johnson, Michael Flynn, and others will do horrible things...
Keep in mind that a number of competent authoritarians and grifters have jumped on Trump's bandwagon. Stephen Miller, Ron DeSanctis, Mike Johnson, Michael Flynn, and others will do horrible things under the aegis of Trump's power, and the carefully composed Project 2025 policy agenda will have free reign. It's not merely about Trump, it's about enabling a reactionary, regressive, boundlessly anti-democratic and unconstitutional slate that includes actual Fascists, white supremacists, and Christian nationalists.
I'm currently reading Plaintiff in Chief by Zirin a new York attorney. It's gossipy but interesting. Trump is according to this book a grifter plus. He is not simply petty. He is obsessed with...
I'm currently reading Plaintiff in Chief by Zirin a new York attorney.
It's gossipy but interesting. Trump is according to this book a grifter plus. He is not simply petty. He is obsessed with wealth, power and status. He was mentored by and formed one of very few long term connections with Roy Cohn who was a very effective political operative and New York attorney. Donald reads Hitler's speeches as bedside reading. He loves the Godfather films and aspires to be a mafioso. He has participated in more than 3500 lawsuits and the odds are that if you have ever once been his business partner, he has sued you.
My hope is that his many enemies will combine to take him out of play. He is insanely destructive and self destructive, but especially with wealthy sponsors (I think they are badly mistaken about their own risk) and his cult of personality, and dark fascination with power, he is dangerous.
He doesn't have enough capacity for loyalty to be a top level gangster IMHO. If the prosecutions play out before the election, many of his minions will flip and testify. However, he is clearly an effective demagogue/cult leader. His ability to be a cult leader is not an accident, it was carefully cultivated.
I agree with the author that it is necessary to fight like hell to see Trump lose. My hope is that a sufficient number of Trump's enemies will combine to win. He is and always had been very good...
I agree with the author that it is necessary to fight like hell to see Trump lose.
My hope is that a sufficient number of Trump's enemies will combine to win. He is and always had been very good at making enemies. Bill Barr for example is no longer in his corner. His history as a businessman was to make a deal with someone and then sue them when convenient.
The billionaires who think a Trump win is in their interest have forgotten that under Hitler and Mussolini, their counterparts at the time were subject to purges and persecution whenever convenient for dear leader.
I think this kind of talk hurts our case. If a Republican were to read this, they may agree with all they read, until they get to that line. Then they'll think that no, I don't value liberal,...
If you truly value liberal, international, progressive values, it is essential to be clear-sighted about quite how much is at stake this year; to hug the cactus of reality, so to speak.
I think this kind of talk hurts our case. If a Republican were to read this, they may agree with all they read, until they get to that line. Then they'll think that no, I don't value liberal, international, progressive values; maybe I should vote for Trump anyway! But if you truly value conservative, traditional values; then you especially shouldn't vote for Trump! He has shown us again and again how he's not a Christian, has never even touched a bible (until that time he held one upside down at a photo shoot), and how he doesn't care one bit about the constitution.
The Christians will talk about how non Christians like Emperor Cyrus were God's agents and chosen to play a role in history. I think reminding people about the constitution and our long history...
The Christians will talk about how non Christians like Emperor Cyrus were God's agents and chosen to play a role in history.
I think reminding people about the constitution and our long history with certain traditions that he threatens will play better with conservatives. There are evangelicals, one of whom from Arizona testified to the January 6 committee, that believe that the Constitution is divinely inspired.
There is a solid influential group of American conservative Christians who have been radicalized and seek hegemony. However, Christians are not a monolith. RINOs are currently without a home and could be helpful
I think (and hope) that if Trump makes it to the election without being in prison, that he will lose in a landslide. Risks to this are:
Also as mentioned in the article, Trump is not doing this alone, there is a lot of support for this mess by a large basket of deplorables.
Here is a simple prediction: If Trump is elected, we are going to see unrest in the country unlike anything seen since the 1960s. There will be massive protests by people who really know that the election was stolen. There will be massive crackdowns and overreactions by a increasingly authoritarian state. Groups of marginalized people will be openly and more brazenly attacked. There will be increased open corruption and division. The economy will tank because of the chaos and because republican economic ideas only work for a tiny handful at the top. It won't be fun.
I don’t know about the sustained unrest and protests. I thought that Trump supporters would engage in ongoing violence if he lost the election in 2020. January 6 happened, and maybe the aftermath deflated their will to act, but this is a sizable group of unhinged people with violent fantasies who believe 100% that the election was stolen and they haven’t done much of anything in the 3 years since.
I do think there will be a loud and angry response from those opposed to Trump if he wins and there is credible evidence of theft, but I expect it to be more of a Women’s March kind of thing. Massive groups of people showing up to a one day protest on a weekend to voice their displeasure, and then they go home.
The rest of it (increased authoritarianism, attacks on marginalized people, corruption, division) all seems likely, though.
I think the big thing to remember is the lack of ability for a lot of these people. Yes, they're good at fooling people. But that doesn't translate to an ability to organise and coordinate people. Some are worried that Trumps incompetency will be the worst thing about his presidency, but imagine how much worse things would be if we had a Trump figure who knew what he was doing.
Imagine someone able to rile up a large part of the country and actually harness that movement for something other than petty grifting. A genuine competent ideologue with Trump's views (racist, misogynist, classist, etc) is much scarier than what Trump is: a petty grifter who knows what to say to get people's attention.
Keep in mind that a number of competent authoritarians and grifters have jumped on Trump's bandwagon. Stephen Miller, Ron DeSanctis, Mike Johnson, Michael Flynn, and others will do horrible things under the aegis of Trump's power, and the carefully composed Project 2025 policy agenda will have free reign. It's not merely about Trump, it's about enabling a reactionary, regressive, boundlessly anti-democratic and unconstitutional slate that includes actual Fascists, white supremacists, and Christian nationalists.
I'm currently reading Plaintiff in Chief by Zirin a new York attorney.
It's gossipy but interesting. Trump is according to this book a grifter plus. He is not simply petty. He is obsessed with wealth, power and status. He was mentored by and formed one of very few long term connections with Roy Cohn who was a very effective political operative and New York attorney. Donald reads Hitler's speeches as bedside reading. He loves the Godfather films and aspires to be a mafioso. He has participated in more than 3500 lawsuits and the odds are that if you have ever once been his business partner, he has sued you.
My hope is that his many enemies will combine to take him out of play. He is insanely destructive and self destructive, but especially with wealthy sponsors (I think they are badly mistaken about their own risk) and his cult of personality, and dark fascination with power, he is dangerous.
He doesn't have enough capacity for loyalty to be a top level gangster IMHO. If the prosecutions play out before the election, many of his minions will flip and testify. However, he is clearly an effective demagogue/cult leader. His ability to be a cult leader is not an accident, it was carefully cultivated.
If that’s really true, we probably shouldn’t have a democracy.
I agree with the author that it is necessary to fight like hell to see Trump lose.
My hope is that a sufficient number of Trump's enemies will combine to win. He is and always had been very good at making enemies. Bill Barr for example is no longer in his corner. His history as a businessman was to make a deal with someone and then sue them when convenient.
The billionaires who think a Trump win is in their interest have forgotten that under Hitler and Mussolini, their counterparts at the time were subject to purges and persecution whenever convenient for dear leader.
I think this kind of talk hurts our case. If a Republican were to read this, they may agree with all they read, until they get to that line. Then they'll think that no, I don't value liberal, international, progressive values; maybe I should vote for Trump anyway! But if you truly value conservative, traditional values; then you especially shouldn't vote for Trump! He has shown us again and again how he's not a Christian, has never even touched a bible (until that time he held one upside down at a photo shoot), and how he doesn't care one bit about the constitution.
The Christians will talk about how non Christians like Emperor Cyrus were God's agents and chosen to play a role in history.
I think reminding people about the constitution and our long history with certain traditions that he threatens will play better with conservatives. There are evangelicals, one of whom from Arizona testified to the January 6 committee, that believe that the Constitution is divinely inspired.
There is a solid influential group of American conservative Christians who have been radicalized and seek hegemony. However, Christians are not a monolith. RINOs are currently without a home and could be helpful