My "final" Oscar winning predictions for the 94th Academy Awards
I might end up switching things around but these seem pretty solid.
Best Picture: CODA
Best Director: Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
Best Lead Actor: Will Smith - King Richard
Best Lead Actress: Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur - CODA
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
Best Original Screenplay: Don't Look Up. Story by Adam McKay and David Sirota. Screenplay by Adam Mckay.
Best Adapted Screenplay: CODA. Screenplay by Sian Heder. Based on the motion picture La Famille Bélier
Best Cinematography: Dune
Best Costume Design: Cruella
Best Film Editing: Dune (Edit: I switched to King Richard)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Production Design: Dune
Best Original Score: Dune
Best Original Song: No Time To Die
Best Sound: Dune
Best Visual Effects: Dune
Best Animated Feature: Encanto
Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul
Best International Film: Drive My Car
Best Animated Short: Robin Robin
Beat Documentary Short: The Queen of Basketball (Edit: Switched to Audible)
Best Live Action Short: The Long Goodbye
I need to do a proper run through, but here are the picks where I am 100%
Your picks are pretty good. I wasn't feeling a lot of the films out this year.
edit: the full set of picks
I have King Richard in editing in second. Editing is a fucked category this year. And either one of two stats is gonna break. Either Dune wins without any precursor wins, or King Richard wins without a Sound nomination as Film Editing and Sound and heavily correlated. I’m still not sure what to do.
The other tricky race is original screenplay which Belfast won the GG, Don’t Look Up won WGA, and Licorice Pizza won BAFTA. Still deciding wether to ultimately predicted Licorice Pizza.
Just out of curiosity what makes you choose Take and Run for short? I thought celebrity + racial issues would make The Long Goodbye a slam dunk.
I really liked Take and Run. The Long Goodbye was good but heavy -- and I like that Take and Run doesn't have a big name or a soundtrack album out :)
Typically the guilds dictate it all, though -- so I'd put my money on Don't Look Up. I'd love for PTA to win, but he rarely wins unless its got some heavy names involved.
For sound, you can make a good guess based off of the Golden Reels -- link. I'd like to see Dune take it, though.
Oh no Dune’s taking sound. There’s no doubt about that. The thing is that sound and film editing are heavily correlated. The last movie to win Film Editing without a sound nomination was Traffic (which coincidentally was also the last one to win without a precursor).
Dune has lost every precursor (ACE, BAFTA, CC) but has the sound statistic. King Richard is the only nominee with a precursor win (ACE).
that's interesting re: Traffic. I really thought that Dune would clean up this year. I was fairly neutral on the film, but pretty much every discipline was nailed.
The bulk of the films I watch are from the 1920s - 1970s. Its always a struggle to get going watching the picks for the year.. but I'm always happy when I do.
You really think CODA is going to get Best Picture? Or are those your own picks? I loved CODA, but I don’t see it getting Best Picture.
Edit: Well, would you look at that…
CODA won SAG and PGA. It’s been gaining a lot of steam while Power of the Dog has lost a ton. It’s between those two but I’m going CODA. Hoping to keep my streak going since I successfully predicted both Green Book and Parasite.
just picks. You can pretty much track the guilds to see who will get it. It isn't an exact science, but at least this year it seems like Coda will get it.
Maybe should have an oscar pool. I have a spreadsheet for it all already that covers everything.
Not getting into this but my girlfriend is terrified that Kristen Stewart might actually win for Spencer. She'd basically be awarded for having resting bitch face, lol.
While I won’t outright say she won’t win as I can’t see the future. No lead actress has won the Oscar without at least a SAG nomination.
It happened once in Supporting Actress with Marcia Gay Harden.
Sorry, AI has spoken, Dune Wins
Having covered in the previous thread that I am an avid current movie watcher /s I shall make my choices below based purely on what I've seen (which is a couple of trailers, but mostly just the movie posters).
Best Picture: Drive My Car, because Saab deserves to win and when this film wins the Saab from the movie should be driven on stage to accept. Robbed
Best Director: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (see above for reason). Robbed
***Best Actor: I don't care, just not Andrew Garfield. ***
Best Actress: Olivia Colman, because I think she's just great in everything I've seen her in.
Best Supporting Actor: Ciarán Hinds, for the same reason I picked Olivia Colman.
Best Supporting Actress: Judi Dench, because she's Dame Judi Dench for a damn reason.
Best Original Screenplay: Do original screenplays actually exist in Hollywood any more? Uhh... Don't Look Up.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Dune, it was honestly pretty good and a million times better than previous attempts.
Best Animated Feature Film: Encanto, because it's important for this little girl.
Best International Feature Film: You know what this is going to be... Drive My Car
Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul, although most of the choices here are pretty strong and that's from someone who watches more documentaries than anything else.
Best Documentary Short Subject: Should be Lead Me Home, but will probably be Audible or The Queen of Basketball.
Best Live Action Short Film: The Dress, because I've never heard of any of these and I like the poster.
Best Animated Short Film: Robin Robin, because it's cute.
Best Original Score: Dune, because it's the only one on the list I've seen.
Best Original Song: Down to Joy from Belfast
Best Sound: Dune
Best Production Design: Dune
Best Cinematography: Dune
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Cruella
Best Costume Design: Cruella, both of these last two categories are obvious although Dune might take them.
Best Film Editing: I never understood this category, other than to give someone "below the line" an award separate from Best Picture as pretty much every single Best Picture nominee of the last 40 years has also been a Best Film Editing nominee. I'll go with King Richard here because I want to.
Best Visual Effects: So this is one of those categories that I'm kinda torn on. VFX has been almost completely taken over by CGI with practical effects nearly limited to only making things blow up. It's my personal opinion, as a fan of practical effects, that the aware should be two separate categories, but they didn't ask me. If they take actual practical effects into account it'll be No Time to Die, however they won't and so it'll probably be Free Guy.
EDIT: Updated to bold italics where I was right (and comment where I was robbed). Also there's something about someone slapping a comedian, but I can't be bothered to care who, what, or why.
A bit off-topic, but Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's latest substack post is relevant and worth sharing here:
The 3 Most Disappointing Movies of 2021 Are Best Picture Nominees!
He then discusses all three movies and his feelings on them, so the whole thing is worth reading, IMO.