4 votes

My "final" Oscar winning predictions for the 94th Academy Awards

Posted by cloud_loud (edited )
Tags: self post, usa, awards, oscars.2022, predictions

I might end up switching things around but these seem pretty solid.

Best Picture: CODA

Best Director: Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog

Best Lead Actor: Will Smith - King Richard

Best Lead Actress: Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur - CODA

Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose - West Side Story

Best Original Screenplay: Don't Look Up. Story by Adam McKay and David Sirota. Screenplay by Adam Mckay.

Best Adapted Screenplay: CODA. Screenplay by Sian Heder. Based on the motion picture La Famille Bélier

Best Cinematography: Dune

Best Costume Design: Cruella

Best Film Editing: Dune (Edit: I switched to King Richard)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Best Production Design: Dune

Best Original Score: Dune

Best Original Song: No Time To Die

Best Sound: Dune

Best Visual Effects: Dune

Best Animated Feature: Encanto

Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul

Best International Film: Drive My Car

Best Animated Short: Robin Robin

Beat Documentary Short: The Queen of Basketball (Edit: Switched to Audible)

Best Live Action Short: The Long Goodbye

13 comments

  1. [8]
    tomf
    (edited )
    Link
    I need to do a proper run through, but here are the picks where I am 100% Best Picture - CODA Best Director - Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog Best Actress in a Leading Role - Jessica Chastain...

    I need to do a proper run through, but here are the picks where I am 100%

    • Best Picture - CODA
    • Best Director - Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
    • Best Actress in a Leading Role - Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    • Best Actor in a Leading Role - Will Smith - King Richard
    • Best Actress in a Supporting Role - Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
    • Best Actor in a Supporting Role - Troy Kotsur - CODA
    • Best Adapted Screenplay - Siân Heder - CODA
    • Best Film Editing - Pamela Martin - King Richard
    • Best Live-Action Short Film - Ala Kachuu — Take and Run

    Your picks are pretty good. I wasn't feeling a lot of the films out this year.

    edit: the full set of picks
    Category Winner x
    Best Picture CODA
    Best Director Jane Campion The Power of the Dog
    Best Actress in a Leading Role Olivia Colman The Lost Daughter
    Best Actor in a Leading Role Will Smith King Richard
    Best Actress in a Supporting Role Ariana DeBose West Side Story
    Best Actor in a Supporting Role Troy Kotsur CODA
    Best Original Screenplay Adam McKay and David Sirota Don't Look Up
    Best Adapted Screenplay Siân Heder CODA
    Best Cinematography Greg Fraser Dune
    Best Film Editing Pamela Martin King Richard
    Best Animated Feature Film Encanto
    Best Animated Short Film Robin Robin
    Best Live-Action Short Film Ala Kachuu — Take and Run
    Best International Feature Film Drive My Car Japan
    Best Documentary Feature Summer of Soul
    Best Documentary Short Subject Three Songs for Benazir
    Best Original Score Hans Zimmer Dune
    Best Original Song No Time to Die from No Time to Die Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell
    Best Sound Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett Dune
    Best Costume Design Jenny Beavan Cruella
    Best Makeup and Hairstyling Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh The Eyes of Tammy Faye
    Best Production Design Dune Patrice Vermette; Zsuzsanna Sipos
    Best Visual Effects Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer Dune
    2 votes
    1. [4]
      cloud_loud
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      I have King Richard in editing in second. Editing is a fucked category this year. And either one of two stats is gonna break. Either Dune wins without any precursor wins, or King Richard wins...

      I have King Richard in editing in second. Editing is a fucked category this year. And either one of two stats is gonna break. Either Dune wins without any precursor wins, or King Richard wins without a Sound nomination as Film Editing and Sound and heavily correlated. I’m still not sure what to do.

      The other tricky race is original screenplay which Belfast won the GG, Don’t Look Up won WGA, and Licorice Pizza won BAFTA. Still deciding wether to ultimately predicted Licorice Pizza.

      Just out of curiosity what makes you choose Take and Run for short? I thought celebrity + racial issues would make The Long Goodbye a slam dunk.

      2 votes
      1. [3]
        tomf
        Link Parent
        I really liked Take and Run. The Long Goodbye was good but heavy -- and I like that Take and Run doesn't have a big name or a soundtrack album out :) Typically the guilds dictate it all, though --...

        I really liked Take and Run. The Long Goodbye was good but heavy -- and I like that Take and Run doesn't have a big name or a soundtrack album out :)

        Typically the guilds dictate it all, though -- so I'd put my money on Don't Look Up. I'd love for PTA to win, but he rarely wins unless its got some heavy names involved.

        For sound, you can make a good guess based off of the Golden Reels -- link. I'd like to see Dune take it, though.

        2 votes
        1. [2]
          cloud_loud
          Link Parent
          Oh no Dune’s taking sound. There’s no doubt about that. The thing is that sound and film editing are heavily correlated. The last movie to win Film Editing without a sound nomination was Traffic...

          Oh no Dune’s taking sound. There’s no doubt about that. The thing is that sound and film editing are heavily correlated. The last movie to win Film Editing without a sound nomination was Traffic (which coincidentally was also the last one to win without a precursor).

          Dune has lost every precursor (ACE, BAFTA, CC) but has the sound statistic. King Richard is the only nominee with a precursor win (ACE).

          3 votes
          1. tomf
            Link Parent
            that's interesting re: Traffic. I really thought that Dune would clean up this year. I was fairly neutral on the film, but pretty much every discipline was nailed. The bulk of the films I watch...

            that's interesting re: Traffic. I really thought that Dune would clean up this year. I was fairly neutral on the film, but pretty much every discipline was nailed.

            The bulk of the films I watch are from the 1920s - 1970s. Its always a struggle to get going watching the picks for the year.. but I'm always happy when I do.

            2 votes
    2. [3]
      Jedi
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      You really think CODA is going to get Best Picture? Or are those your own picks? I loved CODA, but I don’t see it getting Best Picture. Edit: Well, would you look at that…

      You really think CODA is going to get Best Picture? Or are those your own picks? I loved CODA, but I don’t see it getting Best Picture.

      Edit: Well, would you look at that…

      1 vote
      1. cloud_loud
        Link Parent
        CODA won SAG and PGA. It’s been gaining a lot of steam while Power of the Dog has lost a ton. It’s between those two but I’m going CODA. Hoping to keep my streak going since I successfully...

        CODA won SAG and PGA. It’s been gaining a lot of steam while Power of the Dog has lost a ton. It’s between those two but I’m going CODA. Hoping to keep my streak going since I successfully predicted both Green Book and Parasite.

        1 vote
      2. tomf
        Link Parent
        just picks. You can pretty much track the guilds to see who will get it. It isn't an exact science, but at least this year it seems like Coda will get it. Maybe should have an oscar pool. I have a...

        just picks. You can pretty much track the guilds to see who will get it. It isn't an exact science, but at least this year it seems like Coda will get it.

        Maybe should have an oscar pool. I have a spreadsheet for it all already that covers everything.

        1 vote
  2. [2]
    nothis
    Link
    Not getting into this but my girlfriend is terrified that Kristen Stewart might actually win for Spencer. She'd basically be awarded for having resting bitch face, lol.

    Not getting into this but my girlfriend is terrified that Kristen Stewart might actually win for Spencer. She'd basically be awarded for having resting bitch face, lol.

    2 votes
    1. cloud_loud
      Link Parent
      While I won’t outright say she won’t win as I can’t see the future. No lead actress has won the Oscar without at least a SAG nomination. It happened once in Supporting Actress with Marcia Gay Harden.

      While I won’t outright say she won’t win as I can’t see the future. No lead actress has won the Oscar without at least a SAG nomination.

      It happened once in Supporting Actress with Marcia Gay Harden.

      2 votes
  4. AugustusFerdinand
    (edited )
    Link
    Having covered in the previous thread that I am an avid current movie watcher /s I shall make my choices below based purely on what I've seen (which is a couple of trailers, but mostly just the...

    Having covered in the previous thread that I am an avid current movie watcher /s I shall make my choices below based purely on what I've seen (which is a couple of trailers, but mostly just the movie posters).

    Best Picture: Drive My Car, because Saab deserves to win and when this film wins the Saab from the movie should be driven on stage to accept. Robbed

    Best Director: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (see above for reason). Robbed

    ***Best Actor: I don't care, just not Andrew Garfield. ***

    Best Actress: Olivia Colman, because I think she's just great in everything I've seen her in.

    Best Supporting Actor: Ciarán Hinds, for the same reason I picked Olivia Colman.

    Best Supporting Actress: Judi Dench, because she's Dame Judi Dench for a damn reason.

    Best Original Screenplay: Do original screenplays actually exist in Hollywood any more? Uhh... Don't Look Up.

    Best Adapted Screenplay: Dune, it was honestly pretty good and a million times better than previous attempts.

    Best Animated Feature Film: Encanto, because it's important for this little girl.

    Best International Feature Film: You know what this is going to be... Drive My Car

    Best Documentary Feature: Summer of Soul, although most of the choices here are pretty strong and that's from someone who watches more documentaries than anything else.

    Best Documentary Short Subject: Should be Lead Me Home, but will probably be Audible or The Queen of Basketball.

    Best Live Action Short Film: The Dress, because I've never heard of any of these and I like the poster.

    Best Animated Short Film: Robin Robin, because it's cute.

    Best Original Score: Dune, because it's the only one on the list I've seen.

    Best Original Song: Down to Joy from Belfast

    Best Sound: Dune

    Best Production Design: Dune

    Best Cinematography: Dune

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Cruella

    Best Costume Design: Cruella, both of these last two categories are obvious although Dune might take them.

    Best Film Editing: I never understood this category, other than to give someone "below the line" an award separate from Best Picture as pretty much every single Best Picture nominee of the last 40 years has also been a Best Film Editing nominee. I'll go with King Richard here because I want to.

    Best Visual Effects: So this is one of those categories that I'm kinda torn on. VFX has been almost completely taken over by CGI with practical effects nearly limited to only making things blow up. It's my personal opinion, as a fan of practical effects, that the aware should be two separate categories, but they didn't ask me. If they take actual practical effects into account it'll be No Time to Die, however they won't and so it'll probably be Free Guy.

    EDIT: Updated to bold italics where I was right (and comment where I was robbed). Also there's something about someone slapping a comedian, but I can't be bothered to care who, what, or why.

    2 votes
  5. cfabbro
    (edited )
    Link
    A bit off-topic, but Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's latest substack post is relevant and worth sharing here: The 3 Most Disappointing Movies of 2021 Are Best Picture Nominees! He then discusses all three...

    A bit off-topic, but Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's latest substack post is relevant and worth sharing here:
    The 3 Most Disappointing Movies of 2021 Are Best Picture Nominees!

    Somebody has to say it. This year has been massively disappointing for movie fans. Not that there haven’t been some wonderfully entertaining movies such as Spider-Man: No Way Home, Encanto, West Side Story, and Licorice Pizza. But there haven’t been the shining gems that balance insightful perception, depth of character, and sheer enjoyment. None that belong in the same movie canon as Nomadland, Parasite, or No Country for Old Men.

    Three of the year’s most celebrated movies are, for me, three of the most disappointing movies. You’ll notice that I didn’t say “worst” of the year because they certainly aren’t. Don’t Look Up, Nightmare Alley, and The Power of the Dog are made with great skill, artistic integrity, and professionalism. That’s why there are so disappointing. They were created by some of my favorite directors, writers, and actors whose past work I’ve loved. But these strained efforts were bloated or pretentious or obvious—or all three. Each felt inflated by the filmmakers’ past successes, a magnificent mansion bounce house that quickly deflated into a plastic puddle after a couple jumps.

    This Sunday the Oscars will be awarded. Whether any of these films win Best Picture is beside the point. The fact that they were nominated already reveals a major fault line in the process that rewards show over substance. Yes, it is called show business, but awards should look deeper than budget or past successes.

    He then discusses all three movies and his feelings on them, so the whole thing is worth reading, IMO.