21 votes

Daily megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - March 4

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Tags: russia, ukraine, recurring.daily, military conflict, war, geopolitics, 2022 russian invasion of ukraine

This thread is posted daily - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

27 comments

  1. Adys
    (edited )
    Link
    Day 9. Last night, you may have heard the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was attacked and seized by Russians. Please read the following Twitter thread on why this isn't as big a deal that it...

    Day 9.

    Last night, you may have heard the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was attacked and seized by Russians.

    Please read the following Twitter thread on why this isn't as big a deal that it sounds like, and why you shouldn't freak out (but it's still a big deal; Nuclear power stations are ethically off-limits in war, same as dams): https://twitter.com/AvvocatoAtomico/status/1497489081047130118

    Some footage from Kyiv. Here is a great drone video from a village in the Kyiv region. Heartbreaking.

    https://twitter.com/avalaina/status/1499467690842415109

    No-fly zones: NATO has rejected Ukrainian demands for a no-fly zone over Ukraine today, stating that stepping in directly would lead to an even larger conflict.

    “We are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told journalists.

    More from the games industry. Via Garry Newman (of Garry's Mod):

    We're raising the price of our games in Russia because the ruble has crashed so much and it's leading to opportunism. We're going to donate any payments from Russia to humanitarian charities helping the Ukrainian people...
    War sucks for everyone, so we're also going to donate another $500,000 to help them all out.

    https://twitter.com/garrynewman/status/1499809430552121353

    Finally, another big news, also from last night: Ukraine and Russia have agreed on "humanitarian corridors":

    Following the second round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations, it was agreed that humanitarian corridors would be created, the head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, told Russian media. However, Ukraine said talks didn’t deliver the needed results.

    “We have thoroughly discussed three points – military, international and humanitarian needs,” Medinsky said, adding that the primary matter to resolve was how to rescue civilians who found themselves in a military clash zone. The humanitarian corridor will help provide a safe escape for civilians who are evacuating areas where fighting is ongoing.

    This is a big deal. This might save my SO's sister's life…

    I wanted to thank those who messaged me with thoughts for my SO and her best friend, who is now safe in Warsaw and soon to be on her way to Belgium. I won't be around much over the weekend to update further, I'm getting supplies ready for both of them.

    I got to actually see her and be with her, for the first time since the beginning of the war. She was happy. I saw her smile, and laugh. The amount of relief at the thought that one person made it, at least, and finally being able to do something for someone (rather than sitting sleepless, embodying the definition of doomscrolling) was such a game-changer.

    And I cannot express how much of a relief this subsequently is for me too. I might even go skating next week…

    21 votes
  2. [6]
    MimicSquid
    (edited )
    Link
    Ukraine has come up with a better way to thin the opposing forces. The Ukrainian Minister of Defense announced that Russian soldiers who surrender and say the word "million" will be given amnesty...

    Ukraine has come up with a better way to thin the opposing forces. The Ukrainian Minister of Defense announced that Russian soldiers who surrender and say the word "million" will be given amnesty and 5 million rubles. (At current exchange rates, a bit over $40k USD)

    Russian soldier! You were brought to our land to kill and die. Do not follow criminal orders. We guarantee you a full amnesty and 5 million rubles if you lay down your arms. For those who continue to behave like an occupier, there will be no mercy.

    15 votes
    1. [5]
      Adys
      Link Parent
      In case people are wondering, things like these are possible thanks to donations to the Ukrainian army. They have been overwhelmed with financial donations and THIS is one of the ways money...

      In case people are wondering, things like these are possible thanks to donations to the Ukrainian army.

      They have been overwhelmed with financial donations and THIS is one of the ways money donated to an organisation buying weapons can directly save a life (Russian and Ukrainian).

      4 votes
      1. [2]
        MimicSquid
        Link Parent
        Not everyone will say yes, but at those rates it'd only take 8 Billion to buy out the whole 200k of Russian troops. That honestly seems like a major deal as compared to the cost of the damage...

        Not everyone will say yes, but at those rates it'd only take 8 Billion to buy out the whole 200k of Russian troops. That honestly seems like a major deal as compared to the cost of the damage already done, let alone what's likely to come.

        3 votes
        1. Adys
          Link Parent
          Not just that, it’s also passively increasing the cost of the war on the Russian side while decreasing it on the Ukrainian side. It’s an incredibly effective move.

          Not just that, it’s also passively increasing the cost of the war on the Russian side while decreasing it on the Ukrainian side.

          It’s an incredibly effective move.

          6 votes
      2. [2]
        skybrian
        Link Parent
        Have you found any interesting news stories about the scale and use of donations?

        Have you found any interesting news stories about the scale and use of donations?

        1 vote
        1. Adys
          Link Parent
          Nope, would love some links if people are browsing around for that. I’ve frankly not had the time to do more than read the things I’m linked, and my Twitter and telegram feeds.

          Nope, would love some links if people are browsing around for that. I’ve frankly not had the time to do more than read the things I’m linked, and my Twitter and telegram feeds.

          2 votes
  3. [5]
    skybrian
    Link
    Key U.S. provider of Internet to Russia cuts service there, citing ‘unprovoked invasion of Ukraine’ This reduces capacity, which will probably be okay. But I worry that this trend will continue,...

    Key U.S. provider of Internet to Russia cuts service there, citing ‘unprovoked invasion of Ukraine’

    Schaeffer said Cogent’s networks carry about one-quarter of the world’s Internet traffic. Cogent has several dozen customers in Russia, with many of them, such as state-owned telecommunications giant Rostelecom, being close to the government.

    This reduces capacity, which will probably be okay. But I worry that this trend will continue, resulting in limited outside knowledge of what's going on in Russia. After all, shutting down the Internet is what autocracies do before starting a crackdown.

    9 votes
    1. skybrian
      Link Parent
      Meanwhile: Russia blocks Facebook and Twitter access [...]

      Meanwhile: Russia blocks Facebook and Twitter access

      Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the Kremlin has added over 5,000 websites to its "denylist," according to the research and security firm Top 10 VPN. While some banned websites include routine regulation, over 80 news outlets and 30 financial sites have been stripped of access since February 24th.

      Simon Migliano, head of research for Top 10 VPN, told CBS News that Russia has recently been focused on shutting down Russian-language news. "There was a big push just after the invasion," Migliano told CBS News.

      "It absolutely feels like a coordinated and strategic campaign, going after the big Ukraine language news sites first. Now they're expanding out to big foreign news sites with a large following in Russia that are following the invasion."

      [...]

      Migliano noted he's surprised that the Kremlin has not blocked even more sites — including English language webpages.

      But as more and more Russians turn to VPN services to circumvent internet restrictions, demand for VPNs has climbed almost 700% higher than it was prior to the invasion, according to Top 10 VPN.

      5 votes
    2. skybrian
      Link Parent
      A new iron curtain is descending across Russia’s Internet (Washington Post) [...] [...]

      A new iron curtain is descending across Russia’s Internet (Washington Post)

      “I am very afraid of this,” said Mikhail Klimarev, executive director of the Internet Protection Society, which advocates for digital freedoms in Russia. “I would like to convey to people all over the world that if you turn off the Internet in Russia, then this means cutting off 140 million people from at least some truthful information. As long as the Internet exists, people can find out the truth. There will be no Internet — all people in Russia will only listen to propaganda.”

      Russia’s Internet censorship technology, meanwhile, is becoming increasingly advanced, said Andrei Soldatov, a Russian journalist who authored “The Red Web,” a book on the Internet there. People are increasingly relying on VPNs to access blocked websites by accessing connection points outside Russia, he said, but there’s a risk that even those will be blocked by the government.

      “For the Russians, it’s very dramatic, and it’s very fast,” said Soldatov. “Which means people are not just trying to adjust but to fight back.

      [...]

      Russia itself appears to be attempting to strike a balance between appeasing its own people and retaliating against U.S. tech companies. The country’s blocking of Facebook did not extend to WhatsApp and Instagram, two services owned by the same parent company, Meta, that are far more popular with Russians. Instagram is used by celebrities, influencers and members of the Russian elite. WhatsApp is widely used for calls and everyday communication.

      Also protected so far has been Telegram, which was founded by Russian entrepreneurs who have since moved its headquarters out of the country. It may gain protection by being a leading source of information for all sides. The company has not cut off the government’s RT channel or its other propaganda sources. Opposition content, as well as content from Ukrainians seeking to influence opinion in Russia, remains available on Telegram.

      [...]

      Russians say that finding factual, independent information sources still is possible within the country — mainly because of the Internet and social media — but it’s a challenge at a time when people are increasingly struggling to navigate a sanctions-ravaged economy and government crackdowns on free speech. Several people in the country agreed to speak only if their names and other identifying information were not published.

      “You have to be a sophisticated news consumer in order to find credible information,” said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center, a think tank. “Accessing different from the Kremlin’s point of view takes extra effort.”

      3 votes
    3. [2]
      skybrian
      Link Parent
      Russia's version of Google warns it may not be able to pay its debts Bankruptcy doesn't mean they'd stop operating, though?

      Russia's version of Google warns it may not be able to pay its debts

      Yandex (YNDX), which handles about 60% of internet search traffic in Russia and operates a big ride-hailing business, said Thursday that it may be unable to pay its debts as a consequence of the financial market meltdown triggered by the West's unprecedented sanctions.

      The company is based in the Netherlands, but its shares are listed on the Nasdaq and the Russian stock exchange. Dealing in the stock has been suspended this week as the value of Russian assets collapsed in Moscow and around the world in the wake of the invasion. The imposition of sanctions by the United States, European Union and other big Western economies last weekend piled on the pressure.

      Yandex hasn't been sanctioned but it could still default. Investors who hold $1.25 billion in Yandex convertible notes have a right to demand repayment in full, plus interest, if trading in its shares are suspended on the Nasdaq for more than five days. The Moscow stock market will remain shut at least until Tuesday, Russian state news agencies reported on Friday.

      "The Yandex group as a whole does not currently have sufficient resources to redeem the Notes in full," the company said in a statement.

      Bankruptcy doesn't mean they'd stop operating, though?

      The crisis in Ukraine poses another threat to its business. Western companies are halting supplies of technology and services to Russian customers. A prolonged suspension of hardware or software sales could hurt Yandex over time.

      "We believe that our current data center capacity and other technology critical to operations will allow us to continue to operate in the ordinary course for at least the next 12 to 18 months," Yandex said.

      2 votes
      1. Miss
        Link Parent
        I have nothing of value to add to all of this. I just wanted to say thank you guys for laying the news out in the way that you did. It’s the only way for me to keep up with it all.

        I have nothing of value to add to all of this. I just wanted to say thank you guys for laying the news out in the way that you did. It’s the only way for me to keep up with it all.

        8 votes
  4. [2]
    streblo
    Link
    Interesting article on the effectiveness of the Russian Air Force. Is the Russian Air Force actually incapable of complex air operations?

    Interesting article on the effectiveness of the Russian Air Force.

    Is the Russian Air Force actually incapable of complex air operations?

    While the early VKS failure to establish air superiority could be explained by lack of early warning, coordination capacity and sufficient planning time, the continued pattern of activity suggests a more significant conclusion: that the VKS lacks the institutional capacity to plan, brief and fly complex air operations at scale. There is significant circumstantial evidence to support this, admittedly tentative, explanation.

    7 votes
    1. streblo
      Link Parent
      Russian Air Force has lost 9 more aircraft in just over a day.

      Russian Air Force has lost 9 more aircraft in just over a day.

      2 votes
  7. [2]
    skybrian
    Link
    I know I'm posting a lot about Russia today, but I keep finding things that seem important: I can't vouch for the reliability of this, but it seems to be a Russian language account of the grim...

    I know I'm posting a lot about Russia today, but I keep finding things that seem important:

    I can't vouch for the reliability of this, but it seems to be a Russian language account of the grim mood among Russia officials and businessmen. Here is Google's translation.

    According to Matt Taibbi, the word in question that people are thinking is “pizdets", which he says is "not an easy word to translate — like a more profane and dire version of 'clusterfuck'."

    Meanwhile:

    Growing numbers of Russians are leaving the country, fearful of possible martial law and the war’s consequences (The Guardian)

    Google analytics showed that the word “emigration” saw a spike in searches over the last week while countless Telegram channels have been set up in which worried Russians are discussing ways to leave the country.

    [...]

    The exodus has been fuelled by rumours that authorities could declare martial law as soon as Friday, when the federation council, Russia’s upper house of parliament, is due to hold an unscheduled meeting.

    [...]

    Those seeking to leave faced a severe lack of available flights after western countries closed their airspace to Russian airlines. Moscow has also closed its airspace to much of the west in response.

    Flights to Yerevan, Istanbul and Belgrade were completely sold out for the coming days while a one-way ticket to Dubai was priced at over £3,000 ($4,006) – compared with £250 ($334) in ordinary times – according to the flight aggregator Skyscanner. Train tickets from St Petersburg to Helsinki were also sold out on Thursday and Friday.

    Some men who left earlier this week said they were extensively questioned at the Russian border.

    Andrei, a Moscow-based cinema director, said he was held at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport before boarding a flight to Baku.

    His luggage was searched, and an official went through his private chats on different messaging apps.

    “He took my phone and spent a good hour scrolling through everything. Luckily, I deleted all chats discussing my opposition to the war on Telegram and Signal,” Andrei said.

    4 votes
    1. Adys
      Link Parent
      Yeah I forgot to mention the martial law. The Kremlin has been denying it: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/kremlin-denies-planning-to-institute-martial-law-in-russia My SO seems to...

      Yeah I forgot to mention the martial law. The Kremlin has been denying it: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/kremlin-denies-planning-to-institute-martial-law-in-russia

      My SO seems to be pretty sure it will be put in place soon. No way to be certain but it’s definitely more than rumors, and would make sense as a move for Putin.

      6 votes
  8. [5]
    skybrian
    Link
    Ukraine Turns to NFTs for War Funding After Raising $46M in Cryptocurrency [...] [...] Also: Ukraine DAO’s Flag NFT Sells for $6.75 Million [...] [...] I hope the money eventually goes somewhere...

    Ukraine Turns to NFTs for War Funding After Raising $46M in Cryptocurrency

    Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykhailo Fedorov announced the upcoming NFTs on Thursday. He also confirmed that the country was canceling the "airdrop," which would have rewarded donors by distributing crypto tokens directly into their wallets. The free gift strategy is often used as a promotional tool to drive the usage of a token or donations to a project.

    [...]

    Ukraine has raised more than $46 million in cryptocurrency donations, according to Elliptic, a cryptocurrency analytics firm.

    Some of those donations were driven by the appeal of an airdrop for anyone who pledges by 11 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday. However, the airdrop was canceled hours before the deadline to donate. The Ukrainian government launched the crowdfunding effort on February 26, just days after Putin sent Russian forces into Ukraine.

    [...]

    Details of the airdrop were few and far between, and some Twitter users complained that it was a "rug pull," a term used for a crypto scheme when developers abandon a project and take with them the investors' funds. Others, however, expressed that they would be fine if it was a rug pull because the donations were still aiding Ukraine's fight against Russia. Some also suggested that doing the airdrop with tokens using images to show the beauty of Ukraine could actually help increase donations.

    Also:

    Ukraine DAO’s Flag NFT Sells for $6.75 Million

    Launched last month, Ukraine DAO is the brainchild of Alona Shevchenko, a Ukrainian activist living in England. Shevchenko says that Ukraine DAO came together after she connected with members of the digital artist collective PleasrDAO and Nadya Tolokonnikova, founder of the conceptual protest art group, Pussy Riot.

    [...]

    Contributions to Ukraine DAO have come from unexpected sources, including the adult website OnlyFans, which on February 27, sent 500 ETH from its only.eth address (around $1.41 million) to Ukraine DAO, according to blockchain tracker Etherscan. The organization says that all those who donated will get a "POAP"—an NFT meant to denote an important life event.

    [...]

    Notable contributions to Ukraine include $5.8 million from Polkadot founder Gavin Wood and a CryptoPunk NFT worth over $200,000.

    I hope the money eventually goes somewhere useful.

    4 votes
    1. [4]
      skybrian
      Link Parent
      Here is another strange way to donate: I Booked an Airbnb in Kyiv

      Here is another strange way to donate:

      I Booked an Airbnb in Kyiv

      I booked 5 nights at an Airbnb in Irpin, a heavily bombed city near Kyiv. I’m not going. (And I told the host I wasn’t going).

      5 votes
      1. [3]
        skybrian
        Link Parent
        Apparently this is a thing: People are booking Airbnbs in Ukraine — not to stay, but to lend their support [...]

        Apparently this is a thing:

        People are booking Airbnbs in Ukraine — not to stay, but to lend their support

        On Wednesday and Thursday, more than 61,000 nights were booked in Ukraine from around the world — bookings that grossed nearly $2 million, Airbnb tells NPR.

        [...]

        While this solidarity-booking phenomenon appears to have developed in a grassroots manner, Airbnb also has its own initiative to provide housing to those in need. The company will offer short-term housing for free for up to 100,000 of those fleeing Ukraine. People can go to Airbnb.org and sign up to host refugees or donate to the cause.

        4 votes
        1. [2]
          cfabbro
          (edited )
          Link Parent
          Aren't a lot of AirBnB listings actually owned by corporations though? That's the way it is in Canada. And if it's the same in Ukraine, people may be inadvertently donating to multimillion-dollar...

          Aren't a lot of AirBnB listings actually owned by corporations though? That's the way it is in Canada. And if it's the same in Ukraine, people may be inadvertently donating to multimillion-dollar property management corporations not anyone actually living in the country.

          2 votes
          1. skybrian
            Link Parent
            Yes, some are. Hopefully people pay attention to who they are giving money to? From the article:

            Yes, some are. Hopefully people pay attention to who they are giving money to? From the article:

            Of course Airbnb hosts may not be the neediest cases. But Brown says there are ways of finding hosts who are likely of limited means, for instance by looking for those who rent out a shared room or live in smaller towns.

            3 votes
  9. skybrian
    Link
    Sketchy domains try to trick Ukraine supporters out of would-be donations

    Sketchy domains try to trick Ukraine supporters out of would-be donations

    It's important to note that not all of these domain name registrations are malicious. However, preliminary research into the data by both DomainTools and Mashable have uncovered a number of likely scams. Within hours of the invasion of Feb 24, DomainTools discovered URLs, such as "support-ukraine.eu" and "donatetoukraine.org," set up to take donations for unspecified organizations. The Federal Trade Commission website warns against just these sorts of emotionally charged appeals for donations that don't include details about how the money will be used.

    3 votes
  12. skybrian
    Link
    Americans Care About The Invasion Of Ukraine — But That Doesn’t Mean They Will Rally Around Biden (FiveThirtyEight) [...] [...]

    Americans Care About The Invasion Of Ukraine — But That Doesn’t Mean They Will Rally Around Biden (FiveThirtyEight)

    According to multiple studies, one thing that can make Americans care more about foreign affairs is heavy media coverage of a given issue. And the media is heavily covering the war in Ukraine right now. According to closed-captioning data from the Internet Archive’s Television News Archive, from Feb. 22-28, the three major cable-news networks (CNN, Fox News and MSNBC) mentioned Ukraine in an average of 2,478 15-second clips per day. On Feb. 24, the day after Russia started its invasion,2 Ukraine was mentioned in a whopping 3,095 clips. To put this in perspective, during January, the word “COVID” was mentioned in an average of only 482 clips per day.

    [...]

    And just as political science would predict, all that coverage is making Americans prioritize the issue. In a YouGov/Yahoo News poll from Feb. 24-27, 86 percent of adults said the situation with Russia and Ukraine was either very or somewhat important. Of course, it’s easy to say an issue is important in the abstract, but even when respondents were asked to choose only one issue to be President Biden’s top priority, Russia and Ukraine came in first place with 23 percent (though it was tied with inflation).

    [...]

    Immediately after Russia’s invasion, some commentators speculated that Biden could experience a surge in his job-approval ratings as a result of the rally-’round-the-flag effect, or the tendency for presidents to get more popular in times of war. But so far, that hasn’t happened. According to the FiveThirtyEight average, Biden ended March 3 with a 41.6 percent approval rating, one of the lowest numbers of his presidency. There is no sign of a rally even in polls conducted entirely after Russia’s invasion: For example, Ipsos/Reuters gave him a 43/54 approval/disapproval spread, little changed from his 43/53 rating in their pre-invasion poll.

    This isn’t surprising when you consider the actual mechanisms behind the rally-’round-the-flag effect. Political scientists have offered two causes of the phenomenon: an upswell of patriotism in response to the crisis and a lack of criticism of the president that accompanies the crisis, as opposition politicians either show solidarity with him or keep their mouths shut.

    Neither condition is met in the U.S. right now. Sure, Americans are showing a lot of solidarity — but with Ukraine, not their fellow Americans.