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Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of January 15
This thread is posted weekly - please try to post all relevant US political content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Extremely significant events may warrant a separate topic, but almost all should be posted in here.
This is an inherently political thread; please try to avoid antagonistic arguments and bickering matches. Comment threads that devolve into unproductive arguments may be removed so that the overall topic is able to continue.
NYT gift links.
Georgia's Fulton County DA Fani Willis hired her lover to lead the prosecution against Trump's attempt to overturn his election loss in the state.
I've heard internet folks argue that her lover could be earning more in private practice, or that Trump's conflicts of interest dwarf theirs. But really this is a bad look, and appearance is everything: this case of national-historical importance, and the prosecution needs to presents itself impeccably.
I think this is a mistake that's easy to not make:
Step 1: don't hire your lover.
Step 2: no step 2.
This is some super stupid amateur hour stuff on her part.
I just added a legal analysis of this to the megathread re Georgia. The author concluded that Wilis should not be disqualified but that Wade should step down.
It potentially taints a jury if nothing else
Every Awful Thing Trump Has Promised to Do in a Second Term (Rolling Stone)
Ron DeSantis is dropping out of the presidential race
The spouse quipped that De Sanctis should be forced to carry his campaign to term, and deliver it without anesthesia.
Does DeSantis dropping out juice Haley enough to make NH a competitive matchup? If that is not the case, it's over.
Haley has switch to super attack mode against Trump now, so it's possible that this will help consolidate all of the people who would consider voting against Trump but couldn't stand to vote for Biden. Whether she gets the nomination, it'll still help consolidate whatever opposition to Trump still exists within the Republican base. I imagine with the amount of money she's gotten from small and large donors alike, she's not going to stop hammering Trump until the end, regardless of the specifics of how any states' voting turns out. Even if she can't win, she's getting support to be a Trump spoiler if at all possible.
Most DeSantis voters go to Trump overall. I suspect that will be the same in NH, which would widen the gap and not narrow it. There’s still an element of unpredictability, but her path is narrowing, not widening. Ultimately this hurts her chances more than it helps.
I'm not sure it can be said to hurt her chances? Unless some people who would have previously voted for her switch to Trump at this bit of news she'll be at least where she was before, right? Not that her path to victory was very large to begin with.
Of the post-Iowa polls, only one New Hampshire poll has Haley (44%) within striking distance of Trump (46%). If 2/3 of the DeSantis (6%) voters go for Trump, he wins. The other polls are much worse for Haley.
Oh, yeah. I'm not at all saying she's going to win, but in absolute terms if she goes from having 18% of the vote with two competitors to having 21% of the vote with one competitor, is that better or worse? I suppose it's kind of irrelevant. Only the winning vote matters, all the rest of it is just fluff.
Is New Hampshire a winner-takes-all state for the primary?
The most amazing thing for me was that for the $124 Million spent on campaign ads in Iowa only 110,000 Republicans caucused in the primary this year making it ~$1127 spent per vote.
Probably woulda been better spent on uber rides to the polls.
You do have to consider the weather situation in Iowa for the past few days. A ton of snow and incredibly cold weather. I don't know how this compares to other years so since I really possible that this wasn't the big effect but I thought it was worth mentioning
Watched the coverage of Iowa while on the cardio machine at the gym.
It is ridiculous. The "journalists" are trying desperately to pump it up into a dramatic contest, when Trump has had it all along.
It's not a winner-takes-all state, though. Trump got half the votes, and half the delegates. Which I guess is a win by most definitions of the word, but in this case it also mattered a lot how much he won by, and who finished second (DeSantis, sadly).
I don't think it is a "win" at all for Trump.
2020: Iowa Republican Caucuses: Trump: 91%
2024: Iowa Republican Caucuses: Trump: 51%
Iowa Republican Nominees For POTUS:
All of them lost.