22 votes

Russia-Ukraine War megathread - September 2024

Posted by skybrian
Tags: russia, ukraine, war, 2022 russian invasion of ukraine, megathread

We haven't had one of these in a while, but it looks like there's more news than usual.

There was a previous thread in June.

20 comments

  1. [10]
    skybrian
    Link
    Ukraine’s Zelenskyy visits Pennsylvania ammunition plant to thank workers and ask for more (AP) ...

    Ukraine’s Zelenskyy visits Pennsylvania ammunition plant to thank workers and ask for more (AP)

    Under extraordinarily tight security, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday visited the Pennsylvania ammunition factory that is producing one of the most critically needed munitions for his country’s fight to fend off Russian ground forces.

    Rep. Matt Cartwright, a Democrat who was among those who met with Zelenskyy at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, said the president had a simple message: “Thank you. And we need more.”

    The Scranton plant is one of the few facilities in the country to manufacture 155 mm artillery shells and has increased production over the past year. Ukraine has already received more than 3 million of them from the U.S.

    Zelenskyy’s visit kicked off a busy week in the United States as he works tirelessly to shore up support for Ukraine in the war. He will speak at the U.N. General Assembly annual gathering in New York on Tuesday and Wednesday and then travel to Washington for talks on Thursday with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

    ...

    At one point in the war, Ukraine was firing between 6,000 and 8,000 of the 155 mm shells per day. That rate started to deplete U.S. stockpiles and drew concern that the level on hand was not enough to sustain U.S. military needs if another major conventional war broke out, such as in a potential conflict over Taiwan.

    In response the U.S. has invested in restarting production lines and is now manufacturing more than 40,000 155 mm rounds a month, with plans to hit 100,000 rounds a month.

    12 votes
    1. [9]
      davek804
      Link Parent
      Man, the message I've taken out of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the protracted land war thereafter is NOT that we need to make 100,000 shells a month. It's that we need 100,000 little...

      Man, the message I've taken out of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the protracted land war thereafter is NOT that we need to make 100,000 shells a month.

      It's that we need 100,000 little drones tactically dropped 100,000 small packets of explosives deep behind enemy lines with remote controls not subject to local interference.

      I get that the war as it stands does require an intense amount of artillery. But the war could have gone differently with a different set of munitions at the start, by either side.

      3 votes
      1. [5]
        MimicSquid
        Link Parent
        "Not subject to local interference" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Drones and defensive electronic warfare suites are the big areas of aggressive development in this war so far, and if...

        "Not subject to local interference" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Drones and defensive electronic warfare suites are the big areas of aggressive development in this war so far, and if anyone ever got to "Not subject to local interference" they'd roll over the other side toot sweet. Even US shells that had onboard guidance have dropped from 50%+ kill rates down to 9% kill rates. Russia's electronic warfare suites are doing a lot of work.

        19 votes
        1. [2]
          CptBluebear
          Link Parent
          Can't tell if on purpose, but in case it's not, it's tout suite.

          toot sweet

          Can't tell if on purpose, but in case it's not, it's tout suite.

          7 votes
          1. MimicSquid
            Link Parent
            I'm using the anglicized spelling. As it was absorbed into English in the mid 19th century the spelling was updated.

            I'm using the anglicized spelling. As it was absorbed into English in the mid 19th century the spelling was updated.

            7 votes
        2. l_one
          Link Parent
          A fellow Perun watcher I see.

          Even US shells that had onboard guidance have dropped from 50%+ kill rates down to 9% kill rates.

          A fellow Perun watcher I see.

          5 votes
        3. davek804
          Link Parent
          Ha, yeah, I agree. And it sounds like you're more informed on the statistics and technical details than I am. I guess my POV is coming a bit from the larger fixed wing drones controller via...

          Ha, yeah, I agree. And it sounds like you're more informed on the statistics and technical details than I am.

          I guess my POV is coming a bit from the larger fixed wing drones controller via satellite relay and generally operating at 30,000+ ft. (While also thinking about the development of handheld drone warfare in the last couple years).

          The other week Bill Maher had the co-founder of Palantir on. Fascinating and frustrating interview. But the reason I bring it up is the gentleman had some things to say about 100k vs. 100k deployed drones and the future of war. I tried to find it on YouTube but wasn't successful. It's available on other places ... If anyone wants to watch it.

          2 votes
      2. [2]
        l_one
        Link Parent
        The overall situation in Ukraine as well as the rapidly evolving front of drone warfare and electronic warfare are... more nuanced I suppose? To borrow an analogy, or a couple of them, it's like...

        is NOT that we need to make 100,000 shells a month.

        It's that we need 100,000 little drones

        The overall situation in Ukraine as well as the rapidly evolving front of drone warfare and electronic warfare are... more nuanced I suppose?

        To borrow an analogy, or a couple of them, it's like having a toolbox. Sometimes hitting something with a big hammer is the best way to get a job done. Sometimes a small scalpel blade is best for the task at hand. And sometimes you need something else entirely.

        At full scale, war overall, or at least this war, tends not to be 'we don't really need X, instead we need Y' so much as 'we need as much as A through Z as possible and hey we are particularly short on B, C, and Z at the moment if anyone can help out with that in the short term'.

        This war has shown us that mass artillery and magazine DEPTH is very important. This war has also shown us that drone warfare, and electronic warfare, are both very important.

        This war has shown us that you really need every last tool in the toolbox.

        13 votes
        1. davek804
          Link Parent
          I agree with you completely. I think you've added to the conversation very well.

          I agree with you completely. I think you've added to the conversation very well.

          3 votes
      3. Sodliddesu
        Link Parent
        Big artillery keeps you from moving much while the little artillery chases you down.

        Big artillery keeps you from moving much while the little artillery chases you down.

        7 votes
  2. [2]
    KapteinB
    Link
    Russia's losses in Ukraine as of September 23: + 1,330 soldiers and 80 artillery systems (RBC) Russian losses have been higher than usual the last few days. Yesterday saw a new record number of...

    Russia's losses in Ukraine as of September 23: + 1,330 soldiers and 80 artillery systems (RBC)

    In the past day, from September 22 to 23, the Russian army lost 1,330 soldiers, 16 tanks, and 81 artillery systems on the front, according to data from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

    Russian losses have been higher than usual the last few days. Yesterday saw a new record number of artillery lost, with 81 in a single day!

    7 votes
    1. Raspcoffee
      Link Parent
      I wonder if it's related to their struggle in Kursk and the massive explosions in their inland ammunition depots. When Ukraine has made big scores in the past they've often had missile barrages on...

      I wonder if it's related to their struggle in Kursk and the massive explosions in their inland ammunition depots. When Ukraine has made big scores in the past they've often had missile barrages on their major cities, causing civilian casualties. Meaning a heavy counterattack for propaganda reasons would fit the past pattern.

      If that's the case, it'd be a pretty dumb move. They're already losing more and more men it seems, and it's getting more and more expensive for them to get the canon fodder they require.

      2 votes
  3. [3]
    skybrian
    Link
    Interview: The Ukrainian President on how to end the war with Russia, the empty rhetoric of Vladimir Putin, and what the U.S. election could mean for the fate of his country (The New Yorker) This...

    Interview: The Ukrainian President on how to end the war with Russia, the empty rhetoric of Vladimir Putin, and what the U.S. election could mean for the fate of his country (The New Yorker)

    This is paywalled and archive.is doesn't work, but I'll share it anyway in case someone has access.

    6 votes
    1. [2]
      cfabbro
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      Archive.is does work on New Yorker articles but it unfortunately can't get through the paywall sometimes. However, whenever that happens you can usually go back through the archive history to look...

      Archive.is does work on New Yorker articles but it unfortunately can't get through the paywall sometimes. However, whenever that happens you can usually go back through the archive history to look for a version that did get through the paywall properly.

      E.g. This snapshot got through and has the full article: https://archive.is/tQ1yi

      7 votes
      1. Tannhauser
        Link Parent
        Also, for the New Yorker, clearing cookies has always worked for me.

        Also, for the New Yorker, clearing cookies has always worked for me.

        4 votes
  5. Raspcoffee
    Link
    I'm trying to find a more proper article on it, found this through a liveblog of the Guardian: it appears that there have been major issues with the ICBMs of Russia, needed for modernizing its...

    I'm trying to find a more proper article on it, found this through a liveblog of the Guardian: it appears that there have been major issues with the ICBMs of Russia, needed for modernizing its nuclear arsenal.

    Hopefully this is a symptom of more issues to come with Russia's military infrastructure in general.

    5 votes
  6. [2]
    skybrian
    Link
    Ukraine's Fire-Spewing 'Dragon Drones' Give Russian Troops a 'Headache' …

    Ukraine's Fire-Spewing 'Dragon Drones' Give Russian Troops a 'Headache'

    Ukrainian forces have begun using fire-spewing drones against Russian positions in tree lines and forests.

    …

    Although the weapon is unlikely to cause personal injury unless in the case of a direct hit, it deprives the Russians of cover, exposing them to Ukrainian artillery, as well as potentially seriously affecting morale.

    2 votes