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Russia-Ukraine War megathread - September 2024
We haven't had one of these in a while, but it looks like there's more news than usual.
There was a previous thread in June.
We haven't had one of these in a while, but it looks like there's more news than usual.
There was a previous thread in June.
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy visits Pennsylvania ammunition plant to thank workers and ask for more (AP)
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Man, the message I've taken out of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the protracted land war thereafter is NOT that we need to make 100,000 shells a month.
It's that we need 100,000 little drones tactically dropped 100,000 small packets of explosives deep behind enemy lines with remote controls not subject to local interference.
I get that the war as it stands does require an intense amount of artillery. But the war could have gone differently with a different set of munitions at the start, by either side.
"Not subject to local interference" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. Drones and defensive electronic warfare suites are the big areas of aggressive development in this war so far, and if anyone ever got to "Not subject to local interference" they'd roll over the other side toot sweet. Even US shells that had onboard guidance have dropped from 50%+ kill rates down to 9% kill rates. Russia's electronic warfare suites are doing a lot of work.
Can't tell if on purpose, but in case it's not, it's tout suite.
I'm using the anglicized spelling. As it was absorbed into English in the mid 19th century the spelling was updated.
A fellow Perun watcher I see.
Ha, yeah, I agree. And it sounds like you're more informed on the statistics and technical details than I am.
I guess my POV is coming a bit from the larger fixed wing drones controller via satellite relay and generally operating at 30,000+ ft. (While also thinking about the development of handheld drone warfare in the last couple years).
The other week Bill Maher had the co-founder of Palantir on. Fascinating and frustrating interview. But the reason I bring it up is the gentleman had some things to say about 100k vs. 100k deployed drones and the future of war. I tried to find it on YouTube but wasn't successful. It's available on other places ... If anyone wants to watch it.
The overall situation in Ukraine as well as the rapidly evolving front of drone warfare and electronic warfare are... more nuanced I suppose?
To borrow an analogy, or a couple of them, it's like having a toolbox. Sometimes hitting something with a big hammer is the best way to get a job done. Sometimes a small scalpel blade is best for the task at hand. And sometimes you need something else entirely.
At full scale, war overall, or at least this war, tends not to be 'we don't really need X, instead we need Y' so much as 'we need as much as A through Z as possible and hey we are particularly short on B, C, and Z at the moment if anyone can help out with that in the short term'.
This war has shown us that mass artillery and magazine DEPTH is very important. This war has also shown us that drone warfare, and electronic warfare, are both very important.
This war has shown us that you really need every last tool in the toolbox.
I agree with you completely. I think you've added to the conversation very well.
Big artillery keeps you from moving much while the little artillery chases you down.
Russia's losses in Ukraine as of September 23: + 1,330 soldiers and 80 artillery systems (RBC)
Russian losses have been higher than usual the last few days. Yesterday saw a new record number of artillery lost, with 81 in a single day!
I wonder if it's related to their struggle in Kursk and the massive explosions in their inland ammunition depots. When Ukraine has made big scores in the past they've often had missile barrages on their major cities, causing civilian casualties. Meaning a heavy counterattack for propaganda reasons would fit the past pattern.
If that's the case, it'd be a pretty dumb move. They're already losing more and more men it seems, and it's getting more and more expensive for them to get the canon fodder they require.
Interview: The Ukrainian President on how to end the war with Russia, the empty rhetoric of Vladimir Putin, and what the U.S. election could mean for the fate of his country (The New Yorker)
This is paywalled and archive.is doesn't work, but I'll share it anyway in case someone has access.
Archive.is does work on New Yorker articles but it unfortunately can't get through the paywall sometimes. However, whenever that happens you can usually go back through the archive history to look for a version that did get through the paywall properly.
E.g. This snapshot got through and has the full article: https://archive.is/tQ1yi
Also, for the New Yorker, clearing cookies has always worked for me.
Invisible Drones Reportedly Destroyed russian S-300 Systems in Crimea (Defense Express)
I'm trying to find a more proper article on it, found this through a liveblog of the Guardian: it appears that there have been major issues with the ICBMs of Russia, needed for modernizing its nuclear arsenal.
Hopefully this is a symptom of more issues to come with Russia's military infrastructure in general.
Ukraine's Fire-Spewing 'Dragon Drones' Give Russian Troops a 'Headache'
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They're very creative!
Ukraine continues efforts to degrade Russian air defense capabilities, destroying Russia’s BUK and Tor systems (video) (Euromaidan Press)