I'm from Russia. It is true that most products in the consumer market have a replacement. Stuff is shipped from China or Turkey, some things are produced directly in Russia. Some brands only...
I'm from Russia.
It is true that most products in the consumer market have a replacement. Stuff is shipped from China or Turkey, some things are produced directly in Russia.
Some brands only pretended to exit the Russian market - for example, almost immediately after Coca Cola stopped sales in Russia, a beverage named "Dobriy Cola" appeared on the shelves. And if you look up Multon, the company that makes the drink, you'll find that it's name before 2022 was... "Coca Cola HBC". Huh.
However, I don't agree with the point that we strongly depend on China and no longer depend on the west. Some western companies just can't be replaced - for example, it's really hard to find good clothes in Russia nowadays. And Chinese smartphones are not popular because of the sanctions - they're only popular because they're much cheaper, and a lot of the Russian population can't afford a $1000 smartphone. Pretty much everyone who could afford those phones still uses an iPhone or a Samsung or whatever, they barely got more expensive after the sanctions.
Basically the only market where China is probably set to overtake western products because of the sanctions is the car market. Still though, they're very far away from it. I'm looking out of a taxi window right now and don't see a single Chinese car on the road. They're basically perceived as a novelty and most people don't want to buy one yet, although we realize that it may become the best option soon.
I'm happy to answer questions about the topic if you have any.
I want to thank you for sharing your experience and express my sincerest sympathy that you are caught up in this whole geopolitical mess. I was wondering if you see a shift away from US software...
I want to thank you for sharing your experience and express my sincerest sympathy that you are caught up in this whole geopolitical mess.
I was wondering if you see a shift away from US software in Russia? Russia has a good software market: Kaspersky and Yandex come to mind and there are plenty of FOSS options. Do you see Windows going anywhere? Are there Russian equivalents of Western tech companies (e.g., Uber, Facebook, etc) popping up?
Russia has had an incredible local software market for a very long time. And unlike China, where this local software is basically forced by the government, the Russian software market developed...
Russia has had an incredible local software market for a very long time. And unlike China, where this local software is basically forced by the government, the Russian software market developed organically and competed with western alternatives by offering a better product. It really does suck that many western software companies quit Russia - but not because we relied on their services, it's just bad that a lot of those local companies became monopolies with no incentive to improve.
Russian software market mostly stands upon the shoulders of two tech giants - Yandex and VK (previously mail.ru).
To call Yandex "the Russian Google" is probably an understatement. They offer alternatives to basically all existing Google services, while also owning a lot of other stuff such as:
Both major food delivery platforms - Yandex Food and Delivery Club. Delivery Club used to be owned by VK, but they traded it to Yandex in exchange for Zen, a blog service similar to Medium.
The biggest taxi service - Uber Russia was owned by Yandex Taxi for a long time, but there still were some alternatives such as Gett. Now that they all quit the country, Yandex Taxi is the only option.
The biggest music service - since you can no longer pay on foreign sites with a Russian card, using Spotify stopped being a viable option for most citizens, so everyone had to switch to Yandex Music.
Best in class voice assistant - Yandex Alice assistant is much smarter than Google Assistant or Alexa, and it's also the only assistant that properly supports Russian language. A lot of people I know, including me, own a Yandex smart speaker
And much more...
VK is mostly known for owning https://VK.com, the biggest Russian social media site which was created back in 2006 by Pavel Durov (who now runs Telegram) and is used by many Russian people. However, VK is expanding the amount of stuff they own, although they're still not as big as Yandex.
We also have some huge independent websites though. For example, while Amazon and eBay used to ship to Russia, the shipping still took a very long time, so local alternatives were created. Ozon and Wildberries are biggest Russian e-commerce platforms that exist for about 20 years, and they have always been more popular than Amazon. We also have Avito, which is a marketplace, similar to eBay.
Russia also has the best Fintech I've ever seen. I know that there is Revolut in US and Europe, which was started by two Russian guys. What Revolut does is basically the bare minimum for good banks in Russia, every bank has an incredible mobile app that lets you do everything you'd ever need. And there is a single official payment standard for all banks, so you can instantly transfer money to any person with no fees.
So, overall, while I don't see much new services popping up (Windows is here to stay, for example), we already have an established digital ecosystem that we used for many years and continue to use.
Honestly, the IT market is one of the few parts of my country that I am proud of. It is really a shame that the stupid decisions of the government have lead to our IT market being cut off from the rest of the world - I think many of our companies could've had a big success internationally. And of course, as I said, it sucks that they're all monopolies now, with zero reasons to improve because people have no other choice but to use their services.
I will add that while software market is quite solid, the hardware market is in complete disarray. To the point where some local offerings were quite literally relabeled imported products. Same...
I will add that while software market is quite solid, the hardware market is in complete disarray. To the point where some local offerings were quite literally relabeled imported products.
Same goes for core tech like Windows. It's pretty ubiquitous to see even in state institutions like schools (often pirated) Windows and Office products for example.
Lastly, government blocking websites and services forcing the usage of VPN is a big roadblock.
This is absolutely fascinating. I didn't fully appreciate how extensive Russian offerings are. I have used Yandex a fair bit and have read countless whitepapers published by Kaspersky in the...
This is absolutely fascinating. I didn't fully appreciate how extensive Russian offerings are. I have used Yandex a fair bit and have read countless whitepapers published by Kaspersky in the cybersecurity space. They are one of the few to actually extensively track and document western threat actors just as they do for Russian, Chinese, and North Korean ones. I hope they can continue to exist in the same capacity moving forward.
Coca Cola sells syrup to local bottlers. When they pull out, the local companies don’t shut down. Maybe the syrup isn’t quite the same, but the can find something similar. Similarly for...
Coca Cola sells syrup to local bottlers. When they pull out, the local companies don’t shut down. Maybe the syrup isn’t quite the same, but the can find something similar.
Similarly for restaurants. Often they are franchises. The local company might not have the brand or same supply lines anymore, but they still own restaurants and they can do something slightly different.
Dobriy did not make any drinks similar to Coca Cola, Sprite or Fanta before 2022. They were primarily a packaged juice company. They started producing those beverages after Coca Cola left, and...
Coca Cola sells syrup to local bottlers. When they pull out, the local companies don’t shut down. Maybe the syrup isn’t quite the same, but the can find something similar.
Dobriy did not make any drinks similar to Coca Cola, Sprite or Fanta before 2022. They were primarily a packaged juice company. They started producing those beverages after Coca Cola left, and immediately appeared in all grocery stores, while other Cola manufacturers were trying to fight for their place under the sun in anticipation of Coca Cola leaving. This leads me to believe that it's not just a local bottler continuing their old business, but more likely a deal that Coca Cola made.
It wouldn't be the first time Coca-Cola continued operating in an embargoed market with the intention of recovering the proceeds later...Fanta was famously created by Coca-Cola's German division...
It wouldn't be the first time Coca-Cola continued operating in an embargoed market with the intention of recovering the proceeds later...Fanta was famously created by Coca-Cola's German division during the WWII embargo, and the ensuing product line is squarely a part of the parent company now.
This economic dependence is filtering into everyday life. Chinese products are ubiquitous and over half of the million cars sold in Russia last year were made in China. Tellingly, the top six foreign car brands in Russia are now all Chinese, thanks to the exodus of once dominant Western companies. It’s a similar story in the smartphone market, where China’s Xiaomi and Tecno have eclipsed Apple and Samsung, and with home appliances and many other everyday items.
I think this article is quite on point. I honestly believe that sanctions were not targeted especially well. Poor Russians likely didn't notice much difference (they weren't in the market for...
I think this article is quite on point. I honestly believe that sanctions were not targeted especially well. Poor Russians likely didn't notice much difference (they weren't in the market for western products or travel anyway), wealthy Russians found their ways around it. The middle class got hit particularly badly, and that's most likely the demographic where most of the opposition was. All of them now got pushed away from the West for good - either from resentment or because they were forced to.
I wouldn't be so sure about that. Look up the statistics for Russian casualties in the war. The middle class, which in Russia is in the metro areas, is largely unaffected in terms of men actually...
The middle class got hit particularly badly, and that's most likely the demographic where most of the opposition was.
I wouldn't be so sure about that.
Look up the statistics for Russian casualties in the war. The middle class, which in Russia is in the metro areas, is largely unaffected in terms of men actually going/being sent to war. And if they go, they are less likely to be on the very frontline. As I remember it, of the soldiers from St. Petersburg and Moscow, only like 3% are casualties. Meanwhile, other regions in the far east especially has upwards of 10% of those soldiers becoming casualties.
The conversation was regarding sanctions, which affect the whole country and are perceived as the West attacking Russia, rather than casualties which affect the comparatively very small number of...
The conversation was regarding sanctions, which affect the whole country and are perceived as the West attacking Russia, rather than casualties which affect the comparatively very small number of men who went to the frontlines and that are perceived as a necessary sacrifice in times of war. Not sure you why you even bring up percent of soldiers as casualties, when the percentage of population as casualties is tiny.
I am bringing it up as a counterargument as to why I would not be so sure that the middle class is the demographic that is the most opposed to the war. Because the middle class has largely been...
I am bringing it up as a counterargument as to why I would not be so sure that the middle class is the demographic that is the most opposed to the war. Because the middle class has largely been spared from participating in it
Opposition to the Russian regime has always been mostly those that are educated enough to see past the propaganda but also not benefiting from the regime like you would (have to) if you were...
Opposition to the Russian regime has always been mostly those that are educated enough to see past the propaganda but also not benefiting from the regime like you would (have to) if you were particularly wealthy. That's not to say that all of that demographic is in opposition, but what opposition there is is concentrated there. As far as your point, vast majority of the population has been spared from participating in it. I doubt it has much of an effect that the fact of being an unjustified aggressor already doesn't. And if you believe it's justified then you don't particularly care either way what percentage of guys from your hometown went to fight, as it's seen as a necessary or a right thing to do.
Our economies being entangled is one of the things that has historically kept relations between the two countries, if not warm, at least somewhat manageable. The more we decouple from them, the...
Our economies being entangled is one of the things that has historically kept relations between the two countries, if not warm, at least somewhat manageable.
The more we decouple from them, the more we create the conditions for a new cold war against a bloc that's bigger, wealthier, and more technologically advanced as compared to the west than the USSR ever was.
Globalization has historically been a major factor in the reduction of large scare warfare in the 20th century (along with MAD, but that didn't prevent the cold war).
The more decoupled we become, the less there is keeping us from open hostilities, and not to be dramatic, but we barely averted complete annihilation of human civilization as we know it far too many times during the last cold war. I don't like the idea of having to throw those dice again in the next one.
That entanglement was European policy for decades, and did not prevent the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, it made Europe weaker, as to this day, the countries most entangled with...
That entanglement was European policy for decades, and did not prevent the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, it made Europe weaker, as to this day, the countries most entangled with Russia are the countries most likely to block Ukranians aid.
Russia's decision to invade Ukraine wasn't made without considering those economic impacts. It was weighed and for whatever reason, the calculus came out to the benefits outweighing the perceived...
Russia's decision to invade Ukraine wasn't made without considering those economic impacts. It was weighed and for whatever reason, the calculus came out to the benefits outweighing the perceived cost.
Now that their economy is almost completely decoupled from the west, trade impact is no longer a significant factor, and truly the only thing keeping them from doing it again is conventional military power and nuclear weapons. It's one less factor for them to consider when doing the next cost benefit analysis.
Unfortunately, a stronger alliance with China greatly bolsters their ability to withstand and overcome that conventional military power, especially in non NATO nations. which leaves MAD as the one true thing keeping them from gobbling up more land.
That's a particularly dangerous situation to be in, because it requires both parties to have their fingers on the (proverbial and actual) red buttons. Regardless of actual intent, if someone holding their finger above one of those buttons slips, it's the end of human life on earth in any form we recognize.
I feel like the threat of nuclear war is not a real consideration for most people post 90s, but that threat never went away, and every time we become more isolated and consolidated into major competing power blocs, that threat becomes more dangerous.
You're right, but you're precisely making my point. The only real way of preventing Russia from making war on the world is to flood their border with soldiers and weapons so that the can't. As you...
You're right, but you're precisely making my point. The only real way of preventing Russia from making war on the world is to flood their border with soldiers and weapons so that the can't. As you said, the economic impacts didn't give them pause then, and are lessened now.
Regarding nuclear weapons, yeah, but at some point we have to call that bluff. Otherwise, what, they invade Poland, and we have this same exact conversation.
Sure, I agree in theory- except Russia and Eastern Europe are already fully entangled… and the rest of Europe is more entangled with Russia that we here in the US would I think like to admit. I’m...
Sure, I agree in theory- except Russia and Eastern Europe are already fully entangled… and the rest of Europe is more entangled with Russia that we here in the US would I think like to admit.
I’m no globalist by any stretch, but I do fear the insanity in DC has created enough brain-drain that our economic strategies are outdated and we’re now being played by the powers that we used to play.
We are, but at least we are aware of it and working on the problem now. That's why the major push to reshore everything came in, and that last aid package was as much about upgrading our own armed...
We are, but at least we are aware of it and working on the problem now. That's why the major push to reshore everything came in, and that last aid package was as much about upgrading our own armed forces as it was about helping Ukraine continue.
That's not our biggest problem, though. This is. We and almost everyone else remain dependent on China's natural resources. It's not that they have exclusive access to those resources, it's just that they've built out the supply chain on their end to mine the raw materials and nobody else has. Our factories produce bupkis without those materials, and it's going to take us the better part of two decades to catch up to producing them all ourselves.
That's assuming you can sell the environmentally paranoid public on a 'strip-mining America' campaign. It'd take opening hundreds of mines across the US to give us that level of raw input, and frankly, the US doesn't mine its own resources - it's borderline taboo here. We have everything we need in the ground, more or less, but getting it out is going to be a serious political issue.
There was also a strategic mistake in that the perception of the strength of all-out sanctions from the US, even among Russians, was much greater than its actual strength (in a way that was not...
There was also a strategic mistake in that the perception of the strength of all-out sanctions from the US, even among Russians, was much greater than its actual strength (in a way that was not difficult to foresee, IMO). We should have preserved that trump card to maintain some level of leverage over the risk-averse elements in Russia.
There are still trump cards left in the toolbox. If not in terms of sanctions, then in terms of military aid. Someone in another thread speculated they were going to come into effect as the...
There are still trump cards left in the toolbox. If not in terms of sanctions, then in terms of military aid. Someone in another thread speculated they were going to come into effect as the campaigns ramp up and as the election itself gets closer
Russia's war-time economy has been producing three times more artillery than the entirety of the West combined, and year-over-year projections for increases in Western production fall way short of...
Russia's war-time economy has been producing three times more artillery than the entirety of the West combined, and year-over-year projections for increases in Western production fall way short of closing the gap. It's not a serious argument that a surge in Western military aid can be a trump card, as far as I can see.
The comment in question was about was in regards to lifting the ban on Ukraine using donated American weapons in Russia proper. That is definitely an example of a non-insignificant trump card. But...
The comment in question was about was in regards to lifting the ban on Ukraine using donated American weapons in Russia proper. That is definitely an example of a non-insignificant trump card. But you are right, especially with them creeping close enough to Kharkiv for it to be in artillery range, Western military aid has been too little, too late for 2+ years now.
I'm from Russia.
It is true that most products in the consumer market have a replacement. Stuff is shipped from China or Turkey, some things are produced directly in Russia.
Some brands only pretended to exit the Russian market - for example, almost immediately after Coca Cola stopped sales in Russia, a beverage named "Dobriy Cola" appeared on the shelves. And if you look up Multon, the company that makes the drink, you'll find that it's name before 2022 was... "Coca Cola HBC". Huh.
However, I don't agree with the point that we strongly depend on China and no longer depend on the west. Some western companies just can't be replaced - for example, it's really hard to find good clothes in Russia nowadays. And Chinese smartphones are not popular because of the sanctions - they're only popular because they're much cheaper, and a lot of the Russian population can't afford a $1000 smartphone. Pretty much everyone who could afford those phones still uses an iPhone or a Samsung or whatever, they barely got more expensive after the sanctions.
Basically the only market where China is probably set to overtake western products because of the sanctions is the car market. Still though, they're very far away from it. I'm looking out of a taxi window right now and don't see a single Chinese car on the road. They're basically perceived as a novelty and most people don't want to buy one yet, although we realize that it may become the best option soon.
I'm happy to answer questions about the topic if you have any.
I want to thank you for sharing your experience and express my sincerest sympathy that you are caught up in this whole geopolitical mess.
I was wondering if you see a shift away from US software in Russia? Russia has a good software market: Kaspersky and Yandex come to mind and there are plenty of FOSS options. Do you see Windows going anywhere? Are there Russian equivalents of Western tech companies (e.g., Uber, Facebook, etc) popping up?
Russia has had an incredible local software market for a very long time. And unlike China, where this local software is basically forced by the government, the Russian software market developed organically and competed with western alternatives by offering a better product. It really does suck that many western software companies quit Russia - but not because we relied on their services, it's just bad that a lot of those local companies became monopolies with no incentive to improve.
Russian software market mostly stands upon the shoulders of two tech giants - Yandex and VK (previously mail.ru).
To call Yandex "the Russian Google" is probably an understatement. They offer alternatives to basically all existing Google services, while also owning a lot of other stuff such as:
VK is mostly known for owning https://VK.com, the biggest Russian social media site which was created back in 2006 by Pavel Durov (who now runs Telegram) and is used by many Russian people. However, VK is expanding the amount of stuff they own, although they're still not as big as Yandex.
We also have some huge independent websites though. For example, while Amazon and eBay used to ship to Russia, the shipping still took a very long time, so local alternatives were created. Ozon and Wildberries are biggest Russian e-commerce platforms that exist for about 20 years, and they have always been more popular than Amazon. We also have Avito, which is a marketplace, similar to eBay.
Russia also has the best Fintech I've ever seen. I know that there is Revolut in US and Europe, which was started by two Russian guys. What Revolut does is basically the bare minimum for good banks in Russia, every bank has an incredible mobile app that lets you do everything you'd ever need. And there is a single official payment standard for all banks, so you can instantly transfer money to any person with no fees.
So, overall, while I don't see much new services popping up (Windows is here to stay, for example), we already have an established digital ecosystem that we used for many years and continue to use.
Honestly, the IT market is one of the few parts of my country that I am proud of. It is really a shame that the stupid decisions of the government have lead to our IT market being cut off from the rest of the world - I think many of our companies could've had a big success internationally. And of course, as I said, it sucks that they're all monopolies now, with zero reasons to improve because people have no other choice but to use their services.
I will add that while software market is quite solid, the hardware market is in complete disarray. To the point where some local offerings were quite literally relabeled imported products.
Same goes for core tech like Windows. It's pretty ubiquitous to see even in state institutions like schools (often pirated) Windows and Office products for example.
Lastly, government blocking websites and services forcing the usage of VPN is a big roadblock.
Honestly, in my experience, there are more websites that block visitors with a Russian IP than websites that are actually blocked by the government.
This is absolutely fascinating. I didn't fully appreciate how extensive Russian offerings are. I have used Yandex a fair bit and have read countless whitepapers published by Kaspersky in the cybersecurity space. They are one of the few to actually extensively track and document western threat actors just as they do for Russian, Chinese, and North Korean ones. I hope they can continue to exist in the same capacity moving forward.
Coca Cola sells syrup to local bottlers. When they pull out, the local companies don’t shut down. Maybe the syrup isn’t quite the same, but the can find something similar.
Similarly for restaurants. Often they are franchises. The local company might not have the brand or same supply lines anymore, but they still own restaurants and they can do something slightly different.
Dobriy did not make any drinks similar to Coca Cola, Sprite or Fanta before 2022. They were primarily a packaged juice company. They started producing those beverages after Coca Cola left, and immediately appeared in all grocery stores, while other Cola manufacturers were trying to fight for their place under the sun in anticipation of Coca Cola leaving. This leads me to believe that it's not just a local bottler continuing their old business, but more likely a deal that Coca Cola made.
It wouldn't be the first time Coca-Cola continued operating in an embargoed market with the intention of recovering the proceeds later...Fanta was famously created by Coca-Cola's German division during the WWII embargo, and the ensuing product line is squarely a part of the parent company now.
Archive link
Saw this on cd and wanted to share here too:
I think this article is quite on point. I honestly believe that sanctions were not targeted especially well. Poor Russians likely didn't notice much difference (they weren't in the market for western products or travel anyway), wealthy Russians found their ways around it. The middle class got hit particularly badly, and that's most likely the demographic where most of the opposition was. All of them now got pushed away from the West for good - either from resentment or because they were forced to.
I wouldn't be so sure about that.
Look up the statistics for Russian casualties in the war. The middle class, which in Russia is in the metro areas, is largely unaffected in terms of men actually going/being sent to war. And if they go, they are less likely to be on the very frontline. As I remember it, of the soldiers from St. Petersburg and Moscow, only like 3% are casualties. Meanwhile, other regions in the far east especially has upwards of 10% of those soldiers becoming casualties.
The conversation was regarding sanctions, which affect the whole country and are perceived as the West attacking Russia, rather than casualties which affect the comparatively very small number of men who went to the frontlines and that are perceived as a necessary sacrifice in times of war. Not sure you why you even bring up percent of soldiers as casualties, when the percentage of population as casualties is tiny.
I am bringing it up as a counterargument as to why I would not be so sure that the middle class is the demographic that is the most opposed to the war. Because the middle class has largely been spared from participating in it
Opposition to the Russian regime has always been mostly those that are educated enough to see past the propaganda but also not benefiting from the regime like you would (have to) if you were particularly wealthy. That's not to say that all of that demographic is in opposition, but what opposition there is is concentrated there. As far as your point, vast majority of the population has been spared from participating in it. I doubt it has much of an effect that the fact of being an unjustified aggressor already doesn't. And if you believe it's justified then you don't particularly care either way what percentage of guys from your hometown went to fight, as it's seen as a necessary or a right thing to do.
The less the western economies are entangled with Russia and China the better, as far as I’m concerned.
Our economies being entangled is one of the things that has historically kept relations between the two countries, if not warm, at least somewhat manageable.
The more we decouple from them, the more we create the conditions for a new cold war against a bloc that's bigger, wealthier, and more technologically advanced as compared to the west than the USSR ever was.
Globalization has historically been a major factor in the reduction of large scare warfare in the 20th century (along with MAD, but that didn't prevent the cold war).
The more decoupled we become, the less there is keeping us from open hostilities, and not to be dramatic, but we barely averted complete annihilation of human civilization as we know it far too many times during the last cold war. I don't like the idea of having to throw those dice again in the next one.
That entanglement was European policy for decades, and did not prevent the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, it made Europe weaker, as to this day, the countries most entangled with Russia are the countries most likely to block Ukranians aid.
Russia's decision to invade Ukraine wasn't made without considering those economic impacts. It was weighed and for whatever reason, the calculus came out to the benefits outweighing the perceived cost.
Now that their economy is almost completely decoupled from the west, trade impact is no longer a significant factor, and truly the only thing keeping them from doing it again is conventional military power and nuclear weapons. It's one less factor for them to consider when doing the next cost benefit analysis.
Unfortunately, a stronger alliance with China greatly bolsters their ability to withstand and overcome that conventional military power, especially in non NATO nations. which leaves MAD as the one true thing keeping them from gobbling up more land.
That's a particularly dangerous situation to be in, because it requires both parties to have their fingers on the (proverbial and actual) red buttons. Regardless of actual intent, if someone holding their finger above one of those buttons slips, it's the end of human life on earth in any form we recognize.
I feel like the threat of nuclear war is not a real consideration for most people post 90s, but that threat never went away, and every time we become more isolated and consolidated into major competing power blocs, that threat becomes more dangerous.
You're right, but you're precisely making my point. The only real way of preventing Russia from making war on the world is to flood their border with soldiers and weapons so that the can't. As you said, the economic impacts didn't give them pause then, and are lessened now.
Regarding nuclear weapons, yeah, but at some point we have to call that bluff. Otherwise, what, they invade Poland, and we have this same exact conversation.
Sure, I agree in theory- except Russia and Eastern Europe are already fully entangled… and the rest of Europe is more entangled with Russia that we here in the US would I think like to admit.
I’m no globalist by any stretch, but I do fear the insanity in DC has created enough brain-drain that our economic strategies are outdated and we’re now being played by the powers that we used to play.
We are, but at least we are aware of it and working on the problem now. That's why the major push to reshore everything came in, and that last aid package was as much about upgrading our own armed forces as it was about helping Ukraine continue.
That's not our biggest problem, though. This is. We and almost everyone else remain dependent on China's natural resources. It's not that they have exclusive access to those resources, it's just that they've built out the supply chain on their end to mine the raw materials and nobody else has. Our factories produce bupkis without those materials, and it's going to take us the better part of two decades to catch up to producing them all ourselves.
That's assuming you can sell the environmentally paranoid public on a 'strip-mining America' campaign. It'd take opening hundreds of mines across the US to give us that level of raw input, and frankly, the US doesn't mine its own resources - it's borderline taboo here. We have everything we need in the ground, more or less, but getting it out is going to be a serious political issue.
Here's the full summary of China's mineral advantages.
There was also a strategic mistake in that the perception of the strength of all-out sanctions from the US, even among Russians, was much greater than its actual strength (in a way that was not difficult to foresee, IMO). We should have preserved that trump card to maintain some level of leverage over the risk-averse elements in Russia.
There are still trump cards left in the toolbox. If not in terms of sanctions, then in terms of military aid. Someone in another thread speculated they were going to come into effect as the campaigns ramp up and as the election itself gets closer
Russia's war-time economy has been producing three times more artillery than the entirety of the West combined, and year-over-year projections for increases in Western production fall way short of closing the gap. It's not a serious argument that a surge in Western military aid can be a trump card, as far as I can see.
The comment in question was about was in regards to lifting the ban on Ukraine using donated American weapons in Russia proper. That is definitely an example of a non-insignificant trump card. But you are right, especially with them creeping close enough to Kharkiv for it to be in artillery range, Western military aid has been too little, too late for 2+ years now.