OK that's positive... So...what did the US get out of this? Is this not like the JCPOA that was signed under the Obama admin, which Trump then tore up? What was the point of all this? I fucking...
It includes: a permanent and immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon; the complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days; a US commitment to withdraw its forces from around Iran; and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
OK that's positive...
The draft also mentions the suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil sales, reaching a final agreement on nuclear issues within 60 days of signing the deal, and the release of $24bn in frozen Iranian assets during the 60-day negotiation period.
So...what did the US get out of this? Is this not like the JCPOA that was signed under the Obama admin, which Trump then tore up? What was the point of all this?
I fucking hate this admin so much. And seriously dislike the people who voted for this. Yes, they voted for this, even if it was about eggs being expensive or whatever slop they saw on TikTok or wherever.
Ah... there it is. An agreement to reach an agreement that I'm pretty sure neither side is interested in compromising on. So this is most likely to be a 60-day (at most... perhaps less) pause in...
release of $24bn in frozen Iranian assets during the 60-day
reaching a final agreement on nuclear issues within 60 days of signing the deal
Ah... there it is. An agreement to reach an agreement that I'm pretty sure neither side is interested in compromising on.
So this is most likely to be a 60-day (at most... perhaps less) pause in which the US gives up leverage, Iran gets some breathing room to reconstitute and un-bury their munitions bunkers + access to their international assets, both sides? lift their respective blockades? - that wording isn't exactly clear but that is what would make sense, and traffic DOES NOT resume because the shipping industry is very risk-averse and will quite reasonably ask "so... exactly how sure are you that you found and destroyed/removed Every Last Naval Mine? And are you going to guarantee & pay out full ship-loss insurance costs if one of our tankers gets blown up? And waive us of all cleanup response obligations from the oil spill?"
Well, even with that it's still not all bad. If the 'cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon' part holds then at least people stop getting killed for a while. A while is more than nothing - and vastly more than nothing to the people actively getting shot at / bombed.
So...what did the US get out of this? Is this not like the JCPOA that was signed under the Obama admin, which Trump then tore up? What was the point of all this?
We got nothing (nothing good anyway) and there was no point as far as I can tell. A cruel narcissist conned his way into power, likes hurting others for the sake of feeling powerful, and can't stand to be told 'no'. mr orange and his buddies got plenty tough, with that constant market manipulation of 'we're about to end the war / the war will be over in 2 weeks / we're days away from a deal' - what, a couple dozen times? More? With massive buys/shorts/whatevers on oil futures and such coincidentally an hour or 15 minutes before he says that crap to the press. Every Single Time. Very subtle.
Sigh. Sorry everyone for the negativity. I'm frustrated and angry with this morass we find ourselves wading through.
This is the type of language that would normally cause some eye rolling, but there is recent reporting that Iran used psychologists to help deal with Trump during negotiations lmao. FTA:
A cruel narcissist conned his way into power, likes hurting others for the sake of feeling powerful, and can't stand to be told 'no'.
This is the type of language that would normally cause some eye rolling, but there is recent reporting that Iran used psychologists to help deal with Trump during negotiations lmao. FTA:
“We added two senior psychologists to the negotiations’ advisory circle so that we can shape messages intended for President Trump from the perspective of managing what we regard as psychopathic behavior pattern,” an Iranian official told Drop Site. He said the psychologists began assisting Iranian negotiators following the initial round of bilateral talks in Islamabad in April as the two sides began exchanging proposed terms for a potential Memorandum of Understanding.
“[Trump’s] reactions have improved noticeably since we began incorporating the recommendations of these advisers into our messages and written communications,” said the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly.
It probably got picked up on Facebook because a quote like that is catnip to the boomer Occupy Dems resistance libs that are still hanging around the site, but make no mistake, Drop Site News is a...
It probably got picked up on Facebook because a quote like that is catnip to the boomer Occupy Dems resistance libs that are still hanging around the site, but make no mistake, Drop Site News is a solid outlet. Drop Site News is the creation of former Intercept/Democracy Now reporter Jeremy Scahill and Intercept/Huffpost reporter Ryan Grim. They've had great reporting on issues related to the Iran war and Israel-Palestine conflict, and have regularly been ahead of mainstream western outlets like BBC and NYT. Their batting average is significantly higher than someone like Barak Revid, but they have a fraction of the sway in mainstream western reporting.
I'm thinking that everyone will be so happy the strait is open that they'll agree some vague 'statement of intentions' re: nuclear research and Trump will sell it to his followers as the most...
I'm thinking that everyone will be so happy the strait is open that they'll agree some vague 'statement of intentions' re: nuclear research and Trump will sell it to his followers as the most incredible deal in history, if they even remember Iran after 60 days.
I'll give some charitable interpretation and note that Trump's ratings have been steadily slipping over these long months, and even his previous strongest policies (immigration and crime) are in...
I'll give some charitable interpretation and note that Trump's ratings have been steadily slipping over these long months, and even his previous strongest policies (immigration and crime) are in the negative. People soured especially quickly on Trump 47.
I'll also give some unchraitable interpretation and note that this is mostly because Democratic approval rating was rock bottom from day 1 and this decline is almost entirely from independent voters. Aka the fence setters already reset their fence. Moreover, Republican approval rating remains high, well into the 80's. They at best are blinded by propaganda, and at worst are still actively cheering all of this on.
Talks between the US and Iran are called off because of fighting in Lebanon, officials say Running with a peace deal that depends on the actions of other parties who aren't even part of the deal...
Talks between the U.S. and Iran were called off on Friday after intense fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, three officials said, raising questions about a nascent agreement to end the war in Iran.
Iranian officials didn’t travel as planned to Switzerland, insisting that the fighting in Lebanon must stop before the talks can take place, according to the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the ongoing mediation to try to get the talks rescheduled. U.S. Vice President JD Vance also canceled his trip.
Running with a peace deal that depends on the actions of other parties who aren't even part of the deal is... certainly a choice.
Anything to stop this war, but the Israelis have Netanyahu has no intention of stopping this war.
I don't get why people take these actions at face value. Not some 4d chess trick, just...trump does what's best for trump...full stop. A peace treaty is a long, difficult, process involving many...
I don't get why people take these actions at face value. Not some 4d chess trick, just...trump does what's best for trump...full stop.
A peace treaty is a long, difficult, process involving many different people. Trump's mentality and behavior is literally anathema to that.
So yes, he'll sign an MOU saying Iran gets every dollar and weapon the US has, and then the moment that's not in his favor, he'll flip and do something else.
I just...don't get why everyone keeps reporting these things as if they're a done deal. A lot of it seems to be people trying to win arguments or gotcha's or whatever (ah ha! The war is/isn't over!), but really, every headline should basically be "here's what he said today, none of it matters unless it actually goes into effect".
Markets move on it because if you're stuck in the unenviable position of pricing futures or something like that, you must take into consideration what's been said, but at the same time even that seems to be wavering as the market "prices in" the worthlessness of Trump's claims.
So point being:
Running with a peace deal that depends on the actions of other parties who aren't even part of the deal is... certainly a choice.
I mean, of course he did. Of course it didn't work. Of course it's a "peace deal" only in name and even that only just.
Edit-
To put it another way, most of all tump related media reads like "Boy who cries wolf announces wolf's coming again! Lets discuss the possible implications".
Not surprised by this development. I will also be unsurprised if trump completely ignores it while insisting 'we totally have a deal guys' and just proceeds to give the IRGC regime everything from...
Not surprised by this development. I will also be unsurprised if trump completely ignores it while insisting 'we totally have a deal guys' and just proceeds to give the IRGC regime everything from the MOU while they publicly say the deal is on hold.
Title is just copied from Aljazeera. I saw this pop up but wanted a non-US based source so I went to AJ first. This is by no means any kind of guarantee, and obviously Netanyahu has a vested...
Title is just copied from Aljazeera. I saw this pop up but wanted a non-US based source so I went to AJ first.
This is by no means any kind of guarantee, and obviously Netanyahu has a vested interest in keeping the war going, plus the orange is... well, an impulsive narcissist and all, so there's plenty that can go wrong here, but this is the first I've heard of Iranian sources agreeing that an agreement has been reached.
Currently set to be signed Friday in Switzerland. With all the caveats of course.
No idea what is actually in the agreement / memorandum of understanding.
Edit: I'm trying to hope against my cynical heart that this isn't another 'trump's friends enrich themselves with more market manipulation' and then hostilities resume. Pretty much my only reason for being willing to hope this even a little is that Iran is also saying there is an agreement.
Israel awoke to a frightening new reality on Thursday as it absorbed, with disbelief and largely in silence, the terms of President Trump’s preliminary agreement to end the war with Iran.
It accomplishes none of Israel’s war aims, analysts and officials said, and arguably leaves the country in worse shape on each of them.
OK that's positive...
So...what did the US get out of this? Is this not like the JCPOA that was signed under the Obama admin, which Trump then tore up? What was the point of all this?
I fucking hate this admin so much. And seriously dislike the people who voted for this. Yes, they voted for this, even if it was about eggs being expensive or whatever slop they saw on TikTok or wherever.
Ah... there it is. An agreement to reach an agreement that I'm pretty sure neither side is interested in compromising on.
So this is most likely to be a 60-day (at most... perhaps less) pause in which the US gives up leverage, Iran gets some breathing room to reconstitute and un-bury their munitions bunkers + access to their international assets, both sides? lift their respective blockades? - that wording isn't exactly clear but that is what would make sense, and traffic DOES NOT resume because the shipping industry is very risk-averse and will quite reasonably ask "so... exactly how sure are you that you found and destroyed/removed Every Last Naval Mine? And are you going to guarantee & pay out full ship-loss insurance costs if one of our tankers gets blown up? And waive us of all cleanup response obligations from the oil spill?"
Well, even with that it's still not all bad. If the 'cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon' part holds then at least people stop getting killed for a while. A while is more than nothing - and vastly more than nothing to the people actively getting shot at / bombed.
We got nothing (nothing good anyway) and there was no point as far as I can tell. A cruel narcissist conned his way into power, likes hurting others for the sake of feeling powerful, and can't stand to be told 'no'. mr orange and his buddies got plenty tough, with that constant market manipulation of 'we're about to end the war / the war will be over in 2 weeks / we're days away from a deal' - what, a couple dozen times? More? With massive buys/shorts/whatevers on oil futures and such coincidentally an hour or 15 minutes before he says that crap to the press. Every Single Time. Very subtle.
Sigh. Sorry everyone for the negativity. I'm frustrated and angry with this morass we find ourselves wading through.
This is the type of language that would normally cause some eye rolling, but there is recent reporting that Iran used psychologists to help deal with Trump during negotiations lmao. FTA:
Search the quotes and the hits are this "drop site news" and Facebook.
It probably got picked up on Facebook because a quote like that is catnip to the boomer Occupy Dems resistance libs that are still hanging around the site, but make no mistake, Drop Site News is a solid outlet. Drop Site News is the creation of former Intercept/Democracy Now reporter Jeremy Scahill and Intercept/Huffpost reporter Ryan Grim. They've had great reporting on issues related to the Iran war and Israel-Palestine conflict, and have regularly been ahead of mainstream western outlets like BBC and NYT. Their batting average is significantly higher than someone like Barak Revid, but they have a fraction of the sway in mainstream western reporting.
I'm thinking that everyone will be so happy the strait is open that they'll agree some vague 'statement of intentions' re: nuclear research and Trump will sell it to his followers as the most incredible deal in history, if they even remember Iran after 60 days.
Given the lack of fury for inflation under Trump I think we all know it wasn’t just about eggs.
I'll give some charitable interpretation and note that Trump's ratings have been steadily slipping over these long months, and even his previous strongest policies (immigration and crime) are in the negative. People soured especially quickly on Trump 47.
I'll also give some unchraitable interpretation and note that this is mostly because Democratic approval rating was rock bottom from day 1 and this decline is almost entirely from independent voters. Aka the fence setters already reset their fence. Moreover, Republican approval rating remains high, well into the 80's. They at best are blinded by propaganda, and at worst are still actively cheering all of this on.
Talks between the US and Iran are called off because of fighting in Lebanon, officials say
Running with a peace deal that depends on the actions of other parties who aren't even part of the deal is... certainly a choice.
Anything to stop this war, but
the Israelis haveNetanyahu has no intention of stopping this war.Edit: the people aren't the government
I don't get why people take these actions at face value. Not some 4d chess trick, just...trump does what's best for trump...full stop.
A peace treaty is a long, difficult, process involving many different people. Trump's mentality and behavior is literally anathema to that.
So yes, he'll sign an MOU saying Iran gets every dollar and weapon the US has, and then the moment that's not in his favor, he'll flip and do something else.
I just...don't get why everyone keeps reporting these things as if they're a done deal. A lot of it seems to be people trying to win arguments or gotcha's or whatever (ah ha! The war is/isn't over!), but really, every headline should basically be "here's what he said today, none of it matters unless it actually goes into effect".
Markets move on it because if you're stuck in the unenviable position of pricing futures or something like that, you must take into consideration what's been said, but at the same time even that seems to be wavering as the market "prices in" the worthlessness of Trump's claims.
So point being:
I mean, of course he did. Of course it didn't work. Of course it's a "peace deal" only in name and even that only just.
Edit-
To put it another way, most of all tump related media reads like "Boy who cries wolf announces wolf's coming again! Lets discuss the possible implications".
At this point we should switch to only reporting "days since" events
Not surprised by this development. I will also be unsurprised if trump completely ignores it while insisting 'we totally have a deal guys' and just proceeds to give the IRGC regime everything from the MOU while they publicly say the deal is on hold.
Earlier today I read it was the US that backed out (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8r2eme2n5do)
Title is just copied from Aljazeera. I saw this pop up but wanted a non-US based source so I went to AJ first.
This is by no means any kind of guarantee, and obviously Netanyahu has a vested interest in keeping the war going, plus the orange is... well, an impulsive narcissist and all, so there's plenty that can go wrong here, but this is the first I've heard of Iranian sources agreeing that an agreement has been reached.
Currently set to be signed Friday in Switzerland. With all the caveats of course.
No idea what is actually in the agreement / memorandum of understanding.
Edit: I'm trying to hope against my cynical heart that this isn't another 'trump's friends enrich themselves with more market manipulation' and then hostilities resume. Pretty much my only reason for being willing to hope this even a little is that Iran is also saying there is an agreement.
Israel, Stunned by Trump’s Iran Deal, Sees It as a ‘Catastrophic Capitulation’ (New York Times)
Oil futures are actually falling. This could be something.