Chiasmic's recent activity
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Comment on What writing 'tics' stand out to you? Repeated phrases, strange words, or otherwise weird stuff that jumps out at you. in ~books
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Comment on What words do you recommend? in ~talk
Chiasmic Link ParentThat’s the easy one, it’s the every two year one that seems hard to work out!That’s the easy one, it’s the every two year one that seems hard to work out!
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Comment on What words do you recommend? in ~talk
Chiasmic Link ParentOh I like plausible because it doesn’t have a probability attached to it. I find people tend to use the word likely for events they have no stats on (because they don’t or can’t exist), and I feel...Oh I like plausible because it doesn’t have a probability attached to it. I find people tend to use the word likely for events they have no stats on (because they don’t or can’t exist), and I feel plausible is a much better work for what is a scientific deduction more than a statistical/experiential deduction.
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Comment on What words do you recommend? in ~talk
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Comment on Growth vs. value stocks in ~finance
Chiasmic Link ParentI agree with you- it’s wise for the vast majority of your investments to be in well diversified ETFs. I am way too risk averse to do anything but that. But I don’t agree there are no situations...I agree with you- it’s wise for the vast majority of your investments to be in well diversified ETFs. I am way too risk averse to do anything but that. But I don’t agree there are no situations where an individual can’t have an edge.
There is a caveat to what I’ve said: on average, you can’t mathematically beat the market- that’s the nature of the market. While the market itself is not zero sum, beating the market average sure is. That includes actively managed funds- ie professional investors on average don’t beat the market either. If you try play the markets in general as an individual investor you will most likely lose.
The difference (imo) is when you stick to just situations where you can make wise decisions, have a comparative advantage, and not get drawn into situations where you get greedy and over confident and most often lose money. Leave the greed to the professionals who have to play the game.For example, If you are a domain expert in x, and you can see how new device/invention y will change the industry, you have a signal others don’t.
These points where you have a specific unique life experience (I use that term to avoid just referring to peoples jobs) are the situations where you can have an advantage over generic investors. These situations are few and far between, and it’s a lot easier if you know how to assess the companies you might want to invest in. For me, learning how to assess companies and stocks for future use in these rare cases is mostly what I’m looking at gaining. I don’t think I can financially assess companies better than professionals, but when I think I do have an edge I want to be able to assess the company to a basic degree at least.
I mean, an extreme take on your view is that you can never as an individual (even if your area of expertise) make a difference to the world or do better than average, as the large companies who have more data will always know more and do better than you. I don’t buy that, in particular rare situations within my chosen domains at a time of my choosing, I reckon I do know better than the rest of the world at large.
But I’m not a professional, and you do what you think is right and you are comfortable doing. For me, when I’m confident in my opinion, I’ll put some money where my mouth is. I enjoy it, and if I’m wrong, I’m only going to lose a small amount, and learn from my mistake.
I’m not sure how well this makes sense, I’ve written this on less sleep than I would like, so please interpret what I am saying charitably!
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Comment on Growth vs. value stocks in ~finance
Chiasmic LinkThe Amazon graph is interesting. The outcome that online ordering would likely increase in a lock down/pandemic situation was fairly obvious in hindsight at least, but the share price took some...The Amazon graph is interesting. The outcome that online ordering would likely increase in a lock down/pandemic situation was fairly obvious in hindsight at least, but the share price took some time to take off. I wonder if this attenuated by concerns over supply chains crumbling around that time as well?
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Comment on Growth vs. value stocks in ~finance
Chiasmic (edited )Link ParentThe context of this post is that some are interested in learning about investing (other than the standard good advice of sticking the vast majority in an ETF). See this post. What you say is of...The context of this post is that some are interested in learning about investing (other than the standard good advice of sticking the vast majority in an ETF). See this post.
What you say is of course true, and it is wise for the vast majority of your investments to be in a well diversified ETF, this is for those who are interested in learning about other aspects.The other aspect re: can’t out perform professional traders- you can’t if you try to do their job and trade over multiple big assets in multiple industries you know little about. As an individual investor your edge comes from investing in things your unique life experience gives you a strong signal is going to cause a change in an industry you know well and ignoring the rest (unlike the professional investor, you can choose not to play if there are no good moves).
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Comment on Children's music suggestions in ~music
Chiasmic LinkI tend to use some Spotify playlist but they are a bit mixed. We recently got a Yoto player which allows him to put cards in to play specific books or albums. The songs that you get seem a bit...I tend to use some Spotify playlist but they are a bit mixed. We recently got a Yoto player which allows him to put cards in to play specific books or albums. The songs that you get seem a bit with him at least. It does cost to buy the songs, but you can also use blank cards which link to other music form your own library. It’s nice he can use it!
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Comment on Would someone be willing to help me with a Godot project? (4.4.1) in ~games
Chiasmic Link ParentIf you have no coding experience, I’d suggest godot is probably not the best thing to start with. Some design choices are a little non standard, but more importantly there are not many tutorials....If you have no coding experience, I’d suggest godot is probably not the best thing to start with. Some design choices are a little non standard, but more importantly there are not many tutorials. I have some amateur coding experience (python, web, basic C etc) and find the lack of godot 4 tutorials makes it much harder.
Can I suggest you start with a python course? There are modules that allow for game making within python, and godot script is based on python too. There are a huge number of courses and tutorials for python (and it’s very beginner friendly), so that will kickstart your coding skills. -
Comment on Investment club? in ~finance
Chiasmic LinkI would enjoy this. While it makes most sense to invest in a ETF, it’s more fun to have some other smaller bets as well and keep it interesting. I’m UK based (and use a tax free ISA) but generally...I would enjoy this. While it makes most sense to invest in a ETF, it’s more fun to have some other smaller bets as well and keep it interesting.
I’m UK based (and use a tax free ISA) but generally can still buy most stocks globally I look at
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Comment on Is America ready for Japanese-style 7-Elevens? in ~finance
Chiasmic LinkI’m not based in the US, so won’t benefit from this, but it would be good if they brought sake and the onigiri (Japanese rice triangles). I bought an onigiri from 7-11 in Japan with very low...I’m not based in the US, so won’t benefit from this, but it would be good if they brought sake and the onigiri (Japanese rice triangles).
I bought an onigiri from 7-11 in Japan with very low expectations and it was just amazing. Strong recommend! -
Comment on What is a business/org that is great and ethical in so many aspects that everyone should consider using? in ~life
Chiasmic Link ParentWaitrose (supermarket) and John Lewis (department store) are examples of this in the UK.Waitrose (supermarket) and John Lewis (department store) are examples of this in the UK.
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Comment on What is a business/org that is great and ethical in so many aspects that everyone should consider using? in ~life
Chiasmic Link ParentI actually just ordered their taster set from here when you were making this comment after months of thinking about it (weird coincidence)I actually just ordered their taster set from here when you were making this comment after months of thinking about it (weird coincidence)
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Comment on America tips into fascism in ~society
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Comment on An inner-speech decoder reveals some mental privacy issues in ~tech
Chiasmic Link ParentIt would be interesting to see the difference in detected signals between those who self report thinking without words vs those who can’t switch off the internal monologue.It would be interesting to see the difference in detected signals between those who self report thinking without words vs those who can’t switch off the internal monologue.
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Comment on An inner-speech decoder reveals some mental privacy issues in ~tech
Chiasmic LinkOr if you would rather read the paper, here it isOr if you would rather read the paper, here it is
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An inner-speech decoder reveals some mental privacy issues
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Comment on I am still awake after feeding my newborn in ~talk
Chiasmic LinkListen to a podcast or audiobook in bed is my go to. If I’m actually awake I enjoy it, if I’m actually tired but my mind is tricking me to be awake I fall asleep. Either way, I’m happy. I usually...Listen to a podcast or audiobook in bed is my go to. If I’m actually awake I enjoy it, if I’m actually tired but my mind is tricking me to be awake I fall asleep. Either way, I’m happy.
I usually do that for up to an hour. If I’m still awake then, well might as well get up and try something different for a bit. -
Comment on Fitness Weekly Discussion in ~health
Chiasmic Link ParentHe also never seen anyone record themselves at the gym (UK). Can’t imagine someone taking a tripod to the gym!He also never seen anyone record themselves at the gym (UK). Can’t imagine someone taking a tripod to the gym!
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Comment on Fitness Weekly Discussion in ~health
Chiasmic Link ParentSounds quite intense. Do you have the same diet everyday?Sounds quite intense. Do you have the same diet everyday?
I remember that now but it has more given me a desire to use it! I dislike the lack of distinction between soon that means “do it not right now but before I move on to the next thing” and soon “I’ll do it in a bit but not in the current moment”. Maybe I’ll start using it ‘soon’…