Adys's recent activity

  1. Comment on Joe Biden allows Ukraine to strike Russia with US long-range missiles in ~society

    Adys
    Link Parent
    Is it that easy to get your vote? Vote for me, I’ll end the war in not 24 but 12 hours AND get you basic income, reduce your taxes to zero, and fix the Korean situation too while I’m at it. I’m...

    Is it that easy to get your vote? Vote for me, I’ll end the war in not 24 but 12 hours AND get you basic income, reduce your taxes to zero, and fix the Korean situation too while I’m at it.

    I’m genuinely more qualified than Trump, too. Make of that what you will.

    17 votes

  2. Comment on Why is Google Gemini saying we should die? in ~tech

    Adys
    Link Parent
    I’m knowledgeable on LLMs and @PendingKetchup has it down. With that said … holy fucking shit.

    I’m knowledgeable on LLMs and @PendingKetchup has it down.

    With that said … holy fucking shit.

    23 votes

  3. Comment on How California has been ‘Donald Trump-proofing’ itself against federal reprisal in ~society

    Adys
    Link Parent
    The EU presents a completely realistic model where it’s possible to have plenty of continent wide grids, projects, customs and trade deals without starving people.

    The EU presents a completely realistic model where it’s possible to have plenty of continent wide grids, projects, customs and trade deals without starving people.

    6 votes

  4. Comment on 2024 United States election megathread in ~society

    Adys
    Link Parent
    You might read it as that - I didn’t and there’s a perfectly reasonable read that @Notcoffeetable was speaking in general terms that “the lizard brain cannot join dots between two disjointed...

    You might read it as that - I didn’t and there’s a perfectly reasonable read that @Notcoffeetable was speaking in general terms that “the lizard brain cannot join dots between two disjointed things”.

    Those who give lessons in how others should look at themselves, ought to maybe step back and learn to give the benefit of the doubt, @romeoblade

    22 votes

  5. Comment on Guest Passes for Nebula now available in ~tech

    Adys
    Link Parent
    I got the lifetime pass around 2 years ago I think, and I am super happy that nebula is just something I have, don’t have to pay a subscription for, it’s not on my mind in any way etc. In that...

    I got the lifetime pass around 2 years ago I think, and I am super happy that nebula is just something I have, don’t have to pay a subscription for, it’s not on my mind in any way etc.
    In that regard even YouTube is worse because YouTube is unwatchable without premium on my tv. Too many ads.
    And I do regularly watch nebula. Jet Lag early, some exclusives etc

    4 votes

  6. Comment on The bill finally comes due for Elon Musk in ~transport

    Adys
    Link Parent
    Because the incentives to invest in solving a problem are very different when the driver is a majority of the cost of the transport (truck) vs an extreme minority (train). There’s many examples of...

    If self-driving vehicles are so easy, why aren't self-driving trains universal? It's clearly a far easier problem than self-driving automobiles.

    Because the incentives to invest in solving a problem are very different when the driver is a majority of the cost of the transport (truck) vs an extreme minority (train).

    There’s many examples of self driving metros, which are an example where the driver cost is a higher proportion than trains.

    38 votes

  7. Comment on TheFatRat - Unity 10th Anniversary Mixtape (2024) in ~music

    Adys
    Link
    The video is full of comments, by the way! So it’s not audio only.

    The video is full of comments, by the way! So it’s not audio only.

    3 votes

  9. Comment on You're running for office on a somewhat petty, yet univerally-understood single issue. What is it? in ~talk

    Adys
    Link Parent
    Wouldn't eliminating first class seating kill profitability for many airlines? That's my understanding at least right now. Because to be honest I would much rather eliminate some predatory fees...

    Wouldn't eliminating first class seating kill profitability for many airlines? That's my understanding at least right now.

    Because to be honest I would much rather eliminate some predatory fees from low-cost carriers. The baggage fees being different (to the tune of 3x the price) at check in vs at the airport for example; or how the Ryanair website during check-in makes it seamlessly look like you have to choose your seat and pay the "choose your seat" fee. Unethical shit subsidizing the sticker price.

    11 votes

  10. Comment on You're running for office on a somewhat petty, yet univerally-understood single issue. What is it? in ~talk

    Adys
    Link
    Citizens of Tildes, I ask for your vote today, so that tomorrow the US shall be metric. Seriously, I genuinely think standardizing the US on the metric system fully and getting entirely rid of the...

    Citizens of Tildes, I ask for your vote today, so that tomorrow the US shall be metric.

    Seriously, I genuinely think standardizing the US on the metric system fully and getting entirely rid of the imperial system (I'm coming for you next, UK, once you're done with the post-traumatic-brexit-disorder elections) would be a huge gain.

    47 votes

  11. Comment on What small questions do you have that aren’t worth a full topic on their own? in ~talk

    Adys
    Link Parent
    Good question. Ever seen a water jet cutter?

    Good question.

    Ever seen a water jet cutter?

    2 votes

  12. Comment on What do you actually do at work? in ~life

    Adys
    Link Parent
    I started self learning programming when I was 10, my first real software was WoW addons which later turned into WoW online databases. From there I did a lot of software freelancing, small jobs,...

    I started self learning programming when I was 10, my first real software was WoW addons which later turned into WoW online databases. From there I did a lot of software freelancing, small jobs, lots of varied bits and pieces in different fields.

    At 24 I founded my first startup and spent three years doing data analytics in Hearthstone. This was the most formative moment of my career because it taught me how to do cloud infrastructure, big data analysis, IAC, etc. But due to the need of wearing many hats, I also did the company’s books and learned bookkeeping, double entry and its software principles, etc.

    After this I did CTO consulting and ended up doing it for a (now defunct) startup doing a stock trading app. I joined in their Techstars program and helped fundraising, we did a brief b2b stint there as well.

    And since then I reconverted purely to management (mainly because code burns me out). I do startup coaching and created a startup accelerator. I’m opening a fund as well now (for Ukrainian startups, to help win the war). But thanks to what I learned that was “out of scope” of my earlier jobs, I know enough to not need a lawyer or an accountant for most things that usually would. This makes many things insanely simpler and faster: just like a good software engineer can quickly know whether something is technically feasible, I also can quickly know whether something is legally and financially feasible.

    So now I run a few companies, help fundraise, coach, assist technical founders in administrative matters, assist nontechnical founders in tech, and do my best not to burn out. I think having touched a bit of everything is by far the best thing I’ve done for my career.

    15 votes

  13. Comment on What do you actually do at work? in ~life

    Adys
    Link Parent
    I have already changed careers a few times in my life (I’m only 33) and now make a living off having this very varied experience. I completely agree with you. I’ll elaborate if anyone’s interested...

    I have already changed careers a few times in my life (I’m only 33) and now make a living off having this very varied experience. I completely agree with you. I’ll elaborate if anyone’s interested but you’ve said the essence of it.

    17 votes

  14. Comment on Which content-recommending algorithms are actually good? in ~tech

    Adys
    Link Parent
    You need to remove it from your watch history. The watch history has way more impact.

    You need to remove it from your watch history. The watch history has way more impact.

  15. Comment on Which content-recommending algorithms are actually good? in ~tech

    Adys
    Link Parent
    Yes absolutely, likes are less taken into account than watches. Dislikes are a strong signal however. YouTube creates cohorts of different types of videos, and then establishes things like “people...

    Yes absolutely, likes are less taken into account than watches. Dislikes are a strong signal however.

    YouTube creates cohorts of different types of videos, and then establishes things like “people who watch these types of videos also watch these types of videos”. The suggestions are therefore a mix of “Here are more videos from the same creator”, “Here are more videos like this one”, and “Here are different videos that those who watched this one also watch”.

    The homepage is a separate beast, taking the mix of your cohorts into account plus your subscriptions (and how faithful you are to these).

    in that world, likes and dislikes have an impact mainly if the video wasn’t previously recommended. A like on a watched video is just an extra “Yeah I didn’t just watch, I enjoyed it” (and is attenuated by how often you like); whereas a dislike is a conflicting signal and if it was on a recommendations it’s an explicit input to reevaluate.

    Of course keep in mind all of this is black boxed behind AI models so YMMV. And there are types of videos which this is much more optimised for. Longer content fares better because the engagement signal is much stronger on YouTube; whereas eg TikTok has optimised the other end of the spectrum to give as much signal as possible based on shorter content. So depending what you’re into, it might be bad content for YouTube as well.

    3 votes

  16. Comment on Which content-recommending algorithms are actually good? in ~tech

    Adys
    Link Parent
    There is a middle ground. YouTube is a great example of this. The content recommendation algorithm on YouTube is bonkers good — it has surfaced absolutely fantastic videos and authors, and I trust...

    you have to curate them on your own

    There is a middle ground. YouTube is a great example of this. The content recommendation algorithm on YouTube is bonkers good — it has surfaced absolutely fantastic videos and authors, and I trust mine beyond any doubt.

    But: it’s a tool, and it needs maintenance. If I watch a shitty video, I don’t just watch all of it and move on; I dislike it and remove it from my watch history. I actively remove bad recommendations. Etc.

    People who complain about the YouTube algorithm being “bad” simply don’t do these things. I’ve even seen people disable their watch history and then complain that the algorithm is bad… well no shit.

    9 votes

  17. Comment on Customers didn’t stop spending. Companies stopped serving. in ~finance

    Adys
    Link Parent
    Yes I took worldwide impact into account. The first article doesn’t really contradict my numbers. In fact it doesn’t put the impact itself into numbers… I’m sure it’s nice to blame a boycott for...

    Yes I took worldwide impact into account. The first article doesn’t really contradict my numbers. In fact it doesn’t put the impact itself into numbers… I’m sure it’s nice to blame a boycott for missing sales targets at a time where McDonald’s prices have risen so much that a meal is on par with a restaurant meal. (Even here in brussels, a McDonald’s menu is 12.80 eur… a Caesar salad at a café-restaurant next door is 12.50 eur.)

    As for buying back franchises, no way that’s related. It’s a way to assert more direct control over your assets in a conflict zone.

    8 votes

  18. Comment on Customers didn’t stop spending. Companies stopped serving. in ~finance

    Adys
    Link Parent
    Quick source to back up my claim via businessinsider: “The typical US customer makes 44 trips per year and spends about $8 per trip.” This is 30 usd per month for a “typical customer”. If we...

    Quick source to back up my claim via businessinsider: “The typical US customer makes 44 trips per year and spends about $8 per trip.” This is 30 usd per month for a “typical customer”. If we assume (quite reasonably) that those vocally prone to boycotting are atypical and less than half as likely to spend in the first place, you reach a still pretty conservative average of 15 usd per month for boycotters. So 1.5M usd per month impact on 100k boycotters (which I still think is too high an estimate, and this is based on US numbers — rest of the world is lower average priced).

    So at a hit of less than 750k usd in profits per month, a fundraiser would probably be more impactful in terms of money moved to a cause.

    10 votes

  19. Comment on Customers didn’t stop spending. Companies stopped serving. in ~finance

    Adys
    Link Parent
    Honestly I think you’re absurdly overestimating the amount of people boycotting, and the effect of the boycott. Even if it is “hundreds of thousands of people”, I’m going to guess that most of...

    Honestly I think you’re absurdly overestimating the amount of people boycotting, and the effect of the boycott.

    Even if it is “hundreds of thousands of people”, I’m going to guess that most of those people are not regular McDonalds customers in the first place. Getting regulars to boycott a place is extremely difficult.

    Let’s say it’s 100k people (that’s generous)… Do some napkin math of average infrequent user spend on McDonalds per month, multiply by 100k, and you get to maybe a reduction of 2MM USD per month if we’re very generous (my guess is closer to half that). That is roughly 0.1% of MacDonald’s monthly revenue on a generous estimate.

    Revenue, by the way. For the profit numbers you have to halve the numeric total again, as less sales means less cost.

    I haven’t even talked about the induced demand — many of these stores operate close to optimised capacity, which means some customers boycotting will induce demand from other customers who would have gone to the competition and be net zero.

    Boycotts are more of a political statement than a real financial tool. Reputation hits can affect a company’s outlook over long periods of time, that is what companies are afraid of. Reduced sales for a giant like that is meaningless.

    48 votes

  20. Comment on .Com prices go up at the end of the month in ~comp

    Adys
    Link Parent
    Domain management is one of these things where the prices are relatively fixed and any price increase most likely only reflects an underlying investor that wants to see returns. Even if your costs...

    Domain management is one of these things where the prices are relatively fixed and any price increase most likely only reflects an underlying investor that wants to see returns.

    Even if your costs are 10MM per year it’ll mostly be due to salaries and fixed licenses so as a registry if you’re increasing your prices on the domain names, that’s pure margin and you’ve maid up any inflation related costs in just a few tens of thousands of domains. Everything else is pure returns. And your existing customers will not churn any faster because a domain name is a huge lock in.

    The only thing that keeps this somewhat down still is the amount of tlds having increased so much that we can actually choose on price as consumers.

    24 votes