We were then officially in a recession in Dec. 2007. I am not saying that we are heading towards one, or that we are in one, but just saying when there is talk about how the average person thinks...
"As we begin this New Year, America's businesses and entrepreneurs are creating new jobs every day. Workers are making more money -- their paychecks are going further. Consumers are confident, investors are optimistic. Just today, we learned that America's economy grew at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006. That means our economy grew at 3.4 percent last year, which is up from 3.1 percent in 2005. Ladies and gentlemen: The state of our economy is strong. (Applause.) And with the hard work of the American people and the right policies in Washington, we're going to make it even stronger. " — GW Bush, Jan 2007, State of the Union.
"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday he doesn't believe the economy will slip into a recession and rejected the notion raised by his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, that the economic expansion, which started in late 2001, could be running out of steam." — March 2007
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers on Thursday the U.S. economy did not appear headed for recession, but warned growth could prove weaker than expected and inflation higher" — October 2007
We were then officially in a recession in Dec. 2007.
I am not saying that we are heading towards one, or that we are in one, but just saying when there is talk about how the average person thinks we're heading towards one, we tend to end up in one. Prepare accordingly, all the megacorps already have.
Sure, in the same way that a broken clock with its hands permanently stuck at 12:00 correctly predicts that the time is 12:00 every time it is 12:00. Or the fact that 100% of humans that drink...
just saying when there is talk about how the average person thinks we're heading towards one, we tend to end up in one
Sure, in the same way that a broken clock with its hands permanently stuck at 12:00 correctly predicts that the time is 12:00 every time it is 12:00.
Or the fact that 100% of humans that drink water have died.
Considering there's been a market crash every decade or so since I was born, I'd wager its less a broken clock and more that the average person is clued in to reality and not discussing abstract...
Considering there's been a market crash every decade or so since I was born, I'd wager its less a broken clock and more that the average person is clued in to reality and not discussing abstract macroeconomics and financial derivatives of derivatives.
"Oh it's just microeconomics, you can't judge the economy at that scale" is the refrain of economists who are so abstracted from daily life of an average person they can't see a recession except as the economy is imploding.
I think the point here is that predictions of a recession always exist and never end and are never right until there is a recession. Then people point to the people making the prediction right...
I think the point here is that predictions of a recession always exist and never end and are never right until there is a recession. Then people point to the people making the prediction right before the recession and say "look! They were right"
I’ve been seeing this a lot and it completely ignores why people are making predictions. Until a few months ago the fed was still dancing around the word. When 08 happened many people correctly...
I’ve been seeing this a lot and it completely ignores why people are making predictions. Until a few months ago the fed was still dancing around the word.
When 08 happened many people correctly identified we were heading for one because of our terrible loans backing the housing market. It still took years for it to collapse because actually saying when is extremely difficult due to too many factors being relevant.
We’ve had bank collapses caused, somewhat, by the fed raising rates, which has almost always led to recession. There doing that to fight massive inflation and we’re still in the echoes of a post covid world which the modern economy has never seen.
It's been nearly a year of fairly steady growth since mid-2022 when the economy was in the most trouble. Maybe there's a recession coming but generally bull traps aren't supposed to last this...
It's been nearly a year of fairly steady growth since mid-2022 when the economy was in the most trouble. Maybe there's a recession coming but generally bull traps aren't supposed to last this long.
But I guess if you just stick with it and keep predicting recessions sooner or later you'll be right
no previous bull trap has had the level of disinfo and bullshit coming from all directions. Don't get me wrong, I think timing the market is a fool's errand, but I can look at inflation adjusted...
generally bull traps aren't supposed to last this long.
no previous bull trap has had the level of disinfo and bullshit coming from all directions. Don't get me wrong, I think timing the market is a fool's errand, but I can look at inflation adjusted 50th percentile income and see that it is lower than a year ago and that is not a positive market fundamental!
Average inflation adjusted income is down half a percent from last year, that's not a great sign, but nobody has said the economy is great (overall growth is slightly less than inflation) but half...
Average inflation adjusted income is down half a percent from last year, that's not a great sign, but nobody has said the economy is great (overall growth is slightly less than inflation) but half a percentage point is an incredibly small change that doesn't really mean anything.
Isn’t part of that like a self fulfilling prophecy. Where people think we’re heading towards one, stop buying stuff, and then we end up in one. I remember learning about something like that in my...
the average person thinks we’re heading towards one, we tend to end up in one
Isn’t part of that like a self fulfilling prophecy. Where people think we’re heading towards one, stop buying stuff, and then we end up in one.
I remember learning about something like that in my Econ classes.
More like "I've had to stop buying stuff because I'm having trouble making ends meet, looks like things are gonna blow up again." You can call it self fulfilling if you want....but I suspect the...
More like "I've had to stop buying stuff because I'm having trouble making ends meet, looks like things are gonna blow up again."
You can call it self fulfilling if you want....but I suspect the belt tightening happens well before the predictions come out.
That this growth is predicated on all-time credit card debt is a sign that its a false growth. Expect a lot of bankruptcy and defaulted credit card debt within the next 3 years.
I suspect some of it is perception of having no job security, lack of affordable housing, media reports of job losses, corporate insolvency, beginning of the age of AI, unions striking, etc. It...
I suspect some of it is perception of having no job security, lack of affordable housing, media reports of job losses, corporate insolvency, beginning of the age of AI, unions striking, etc.
It could be self-fulfilling, but if we’re seeing country-wide trends with measurable and appreciable impact, maybe it is a sign of a broader problem and not individual perception.
If people lose trust in economic viability or sustainable employment, their budgets, spending, or debts will be impacted.
The economy works in cycles. Of course there will be a recession at some point. That's how it works. During a recession, we can also say there will be eventually expansion and growth, yet I rarely...
The economy works in cycles. Of course there will be a recession at some point. That's how it works. During a recession, we can also say there will be eventually expansion and growth, yet I rarely hear people be that optimistic during a recession.
The problem with those predictions is that people were saying this since Biden took office, this is 3rd year now. I'm not saying we are safe from one, but if those people are constantly saying...
The problem with those predictions is that people were saying this since Biden took office, this is 3rd year now.
I'm not saying we are safe from one, but if those people are constantly saying there is a recession for many years, then they are hardly any indicator of anything.
I think we’ll really see the state of things once student payments resume. Those have been on pause for so long, I’m sure most borrowers have forgotten the feeling of paying them. Some borrowers...
I think we’ll really see the state of things once student payments resume. Those have been on pause for so long, I’m sure most borrowers have forgotten the feeling of paying them. Some borrowers have never had to pay. It’s going to be tough for many people/families to allocate more money for these bills when they’re already being squeezed so much elsewhere. Then again the Biden Administration has made some changes to repayment plans that should ease the burden for some. Regardless, the money going to student loan repayment will be money that won’t be going into the local economy and that can cause ripples throughout the larger economy as well.
The net effect of student loan repayment should be reducing inflationary pressures. College educated consumers having a couple hundred dollars less each month is a pretty blunt way to reduce...
The net effect of student loan repayment should be reducing inflationary pressures. College educated consumers having a couple hundred dollars less each month is a pretty blunt way to reduce demand-pull inflation. For the poorest borrowers, Biden's new repayment plan should keep their monthly payments close to zero, so student loan repayment won't be as regressive as some pundits have predicted.
Yeah, in some ways the SC striking down the loan forgivenesss was a major boon to the Biden administration. Student loan repayment is both deflationary and disproportionately affects higher income...
Yeah, in some ways the SC striking down the loan forgivenesss was a major boon to the Biden administration. Student loan repayment is both deflationary and disproportionately affects higher income brackets, both things that the administration would want economically.
All that and they still get to tell the leftward, college educated part of their base that they tried. It was the republicans fault - and it was, to be clear.
Sure, but it won’t be fun to be a business that has gotten used to those couple hundred disposable dollars every month. Just because someone is college-educated and not poor does not mean they...
Sure, but it won’t be fun to be a business that has gotten used to those couple hundred disposable dollars every month. Just because someone is college-educated and not poor does not mean they aren’t spending all their monthly income. I’d be interested to know how many billions of dollars per month this will pull out of the economy. The downward pressure on inflation is great if you can keep your income and your home. While I agree that student loans should start back up, we’ve got some other problems here that could very well snowball when they resume.
Yep. Losing disposable income (or income that has already been eaten by rising rent and food prices) will create nasty pressure on non-essentials, causing less circulation of money, reducing...
Yep. Losing disposable income (or income that has already been eaten by rising rent and food prices) will create nasty pressure on non-essentials, causing less circulation of money, reducing business and ultimately causing losses in employment. It's a good way to kick the economy in the knees.
I expect we'll see a noticeable market downturn. Conveniently, the next fiscal quarter starts in October.
We were then officially in a recession in Dec. 2007.
I am not saying that we are heading towards one, or that we are in one, but just saying when there is talk about how the average person thinks we're heading towards one, we tend to end up in one. Prepare accordingly, all the megacorps already have.
Sure, in the same way that a broken clock with its hands permanently stuck at 12:00 correctly predicts that the time is 12:00 every time it is 12:00.
Or the fact that 100% of humans that drink water have died.
Considering there's been a market crash every decade or so since I was born, I'd wager its less a broken clock and more that the average person is clued in to reality and not discussing abstract macroeconomics and financial derivatives of derivatives.
"Oh it's just microeconomics, you can't judge the economy at that scale" is the refrain of economists who are so abstracted from daily life of an average person they can't see a recession except as the economy is imploding.
I think the point here is that predictions of a recession always exist and never end and are never right until there is a recession. Then people point to the people making the prediction right before the recession and say "look! They were right"
I’ve been seeing this a lot and it completely ignores why people are making predictions. Until a few months ago the fed was still dancing around the word.
When 08 happened many people correctly identified we were heading for one because of our terrible loans backing the housing market. It still took years for it to collapse because actually saying when is extremely difficult due to too many factors being relevant.
We’ve had bank collapses caused, somewhat, by the fed raising rates, which has almost always led to recession. There doing that to fight massive inflation and we’re still in the echoes of a post covid world which the modern economy has never seen.
Basically this. Nobody knows what's actually going to happen.
This is a regular reminder of The Anatomy of a Bubble.
We're in Bull Trap/Return to Normal now.
It's been nearly a year of fairly steady growth since mid-2022 when the economy was in the most trouble. Maybe there's a recession coming but generally bull traps aren't supposed to last this long.
But I guess if you just stick with it and keep predicting recessions sooner or later you'll be right
no previous bull trap has had the level of disinfo and bullshit coming from all directions. Don't get me wrong, I think timing the market is a fool's errand, but I can look at inflation adjusted 50th percentile income and see that it is lower than a year ago and that is not a positive market fundamental!
Average inflation adjusted income is down half a percent from last year, that's not a great sign, but nobody has said the economy is great (overall growth is slightly less than inflation) but half a percentage point is an incredibly small change that doesn't really mean anything.
Isn’t part of that like a self fulfilling prophecy. Where people think we’re heading towards one, stop buying stuff, and then we end up in one.
I remember learning about something like that in my Econ classes.
More like "I've had to stop buying stuff because I'm having trouble making ends meet, looks like things are gonna blow up again."
You can call it self fulfilling if you want....but I suspect the belt tightening happens well before the predictions come out.
That this growth is predicated on all-time credit card debt is a sign that its a false growth. Expect a lot of bankruptcy and defaulted credit card debt within the next 3 years.
I suspect some of it is perception of having no job security, lack of affordable housing, media reports of job losses, corporate insolvency, beginning of the age of AI, unions striking, etc.
It could be self-fulfilling, but if we’re seeing country-wide trends with measurable and appreciable impact, maybe it is a sign of a broader problem and not individual perception.
If people lose trust in economic viability or sustainable employment, their budgets, spending, or debts will be impacted.
The economy works in cycles. Of course there will be a recession at some point. That's how it works. During a recession, we can also say there will be eventually expansion and growth, yet I rarely hear people be that optimistic during a recession.
Hard to be optimistic when you're having trouble making ends meet and what little retirement savings you had has been wiped out.
The problem with those predictions is that people were saying this since Biden took office, this is 3rd year now.
I'm not saying we are safe from one, but if those people are constantly saying there is a recession for many years, then they are hardly any indicator of anything.
There's the old joke, economists have predicted 9 out of the last 5 recessions.
I think we’ll really see the state of things once student payments resume. Those have been on pause for so long, I’m sure most borrowers have forgotten the feeling of paying them. Some borrowers have never had to pay. It’s going to be tough for many people/families to allocate more money for these bills when they’re already being squeezed so much elsewhere. Then again the Biden Administration has made some changes to repayment plans that should ease the burden for some. Regardless, the money going to student loan repayment will be money that won’t be going into the local economy and that can cause ripples throughout the larger economy as well.
The net effect of student loan repayment should be reducing inflationary pressures. College educated consumers having a couple hundred dollars less each month is a pretty blunt way to reduce demand-pull inflation. For the poorest borrowers, Biden's new repayment plan should keep their monthly payments close to zero, so student loan repayment won't be as regressive as some pundits have predicted.
Yeah, in some ways the SC striking down the loan forgivenesss was a major boon to the Biden administration. Student loan repayment is both deflationary and disproportionately affects higher income brackets, both things that the administration would want economically.
All that and they still get to tell the leftward, college educated part of their base that they tried. It was the republicans fault - and it was, to be clear.
Sure, but it won’t be fun to be a business that has gotten used to those couple hundred disposable dollars every month. Just because someone is college-educated and not poor does not mean they aren’t spending all their monthly income. I’d be interested to know how many billions of dollars per month this will pull out of the economy. The downward pressure on inflation is great if you can keep your income and your home. While I agree that student loans should start back up, we’ve got some other problems here that could very well snowball when they resume.
Yep. Losing disposable income (or income that has already been eaten by rising rent and food prices) will create nasty pressure on non-essentials, causing less circulation of money, reducing business and ultimately causing losses in employment. It's a good way to kick the economy in the knees.
I expect we'll see a noticeable market downturn. Conveniently, the next fiscal quarter starts in October.