14
votes
Why it could actually be Trump that has an enthusiasm problem, not Biden
Link information
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- Title
- Why Trump - Not Biden - Might Have An Enthusiasm Problem
- Authors
- Michael Tesler
- Published
- Jul 15 2020
- Word count
- 778 words
Which is insane, because that's exactly what cheeto is. Payback for us having the gall to elect Obama TWICE.
A quite optimistic article.
The main arguments here are:
Biden voters hate Trump enough to get over any qualms they have over Biden (although that is a quite objectionable claim.)
Biden is so moderate that, despite Trump and the GOP machine's best efforts, Republicans just don't hate him enough
3: Biden's net approval numbers, unlike Clinton's and Trump's, are roughly neutral.
This is the primary reason why I think the people claiming "democrats will skip on biden causing him to lose the election" is bs. Republican votes simply matter more in this election, and the fact that Trump is rejected by a decent chunk of his party is what will swing things IMO.
(of course Warren would have done a better job but …)
By extension, that's why the 'Bernie is unelectable' argument was BS as well. Outside of like Tom Delany, almost anybody who made it to the debate stages in 2019 is well-poised to beat Trump.
Because people aren't voting for Democrats this election....they're voting against Trump. The best bet we have is that the Republicans who think Trump is too far will just sit out. There's too many 'I don't like Trump, but I can't vote for a Democrat' people.
I don't necessarily agree, but I'm also not sure why they haven't gotten anything to stick against Biden. They managed to spin a guy who won three Purple Hearts as a draft dodger against someone who effectively actually was one.
It kind of does though. The right will use those attacks regardless of validity, and they will stick. The right will propagandize anything, and validity doesn't matter, as their base doesn't fact check worth a damn.
$15 minimum wage? Socialism.
Regulation? Socialism.
ACA? Socialism.
But Biden also has a lot more attack venues outside of the typical 'left bad' rhetoric, from the Ukraine to the creepy photos. People have been digging hard to get dirt on Bernie since 2016, and have largely come up empty.
Edit: In fairness, the vast majority on both sides don't fact check worth a damn. But the right is far more willing to outright lie about stuff too.
That's fair. I've avoided the FN bubble as much as I can. But I also remember all attacks prior, and a lot of them stuck. I contend the only reason it's not sticking this time (at least publicly) is because Trump is that bad.
In the friend-of-friend passive Facebook consumption of the various folks I went to HS with, I see a lot of Trump voters with 0 remorse and full on the 'COVID is a myth' train still.
There was a ton of polling showing that Bernie wasn't popular in a number of important swing states like Arizona.
Bernie might have still been able to win the Presidency, but Biden getting the nomination is what put the senate in play.
Biden with a Democratic congress is more progressive than Bernie with a Congress still partially controlled by Mitch McConnell.
I don't understand the relation there, why does that put the Senate in play?
Straight ticket-voting and downballot effects. Basically the idea is that Bernie being the standard bearer for the Democratic party would affect every democratic politician because they share the party-tent. IMO this is a glaring examples of how retarded US politics currently are, but the stakes are too high to call this out.
Because Bernie does not appeal to moderates who are flocking to Senate candidates like Mark Kelly and Cal Cunningham. Polls conducted with Bernie at the top of the ticket showed both of those candidates performing worse than with Biden at the top.
I substantially doubt that. While we can't speak to everyone (thanks to secrecy), most people I've talked with basically either pull the R lever or the D lever come November.
And the D base is already rallied to vote out Trump. The R base isn't going to pull the D lever anyway, at best they'll sit out.
You've got your anecdotal evidence that there's no such thing as a "moderate", but we have plenty of polling that says otherwise. Voter behavior isn't black and white.
Maybe, but this rings true too:
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944
There's moderates for sure. But there aren't many swing voters (I've suspected this since about 1996). There's just motivated vs unmotivated.
Anecdotally, I happened upon a Fox News online article yesterday about Trump's poll numbers when curiosity got the better of me, and I read up the comments on the article. Surprisingly, it seemed like 60% of the comments were things like:
Warranted, these are online comments and could very well be an astroturf campaign. There is nothing on the comment profiles that indicate they are a bot, or a real person, but I was surprised. It might also have been the time of day that I was reading them as well. I genuinely hope though that it is a sentiment among Republicans.