14 votes

Why it could actually be Trump that has an enthusiasm problem, not Biden

19 comments

  1. [2]
    Comment deleted by author
    Link
    1. jprich
      Link Parent
      Which is insane, because that's exactly what cheeto is. Payback for us having the gall to elect Obama TWICE.

      Conservatives don't want the next Democratic presidency to be a matter of "payback";

      Which is insane, because that's exactly what cheeto is. Payback for us having the gall to elect Obama TWICE.

      10 votes
  2. [17]
    Kuromantis
    Link
    A quite optimistic article. The main arguments here are: Biden voters hate Trump enough to get over any qualms they have over Biden (although that is a quite objectionable claim.) Biden is so...

    A quite optimistic article.

    The main arguments here are:

    Biden voters hate Trump enough to get over any qualms they have over Biden (although that is a quite objectionable claim.)

    Biden is so moderate that, despite Trump and the GOP machine's best efforts, Republicans just don't hate him enough

    3: Biden's net approval numbers, unlike Clinton's and Trump's, are roughly neutral.

    3 votes
    1. [16]
      Adys
      Link Parent
      This is the primary reason why I think the people claiming "democrats will skip on biden causing him to lose the election" is bs. Republican votes simply matter more in this election, and the fact...

      Biden is so moderate that, despite Trump and the GOP machine's best efforts, Republicans just don't hate him enough

      This is the primary reason why I think the people claiming "democrats will skip on biden causing him to lose the election" is bs. Republican votes simply matter more in this election, and the fact that Trump is rejected by a decent chunk of his party is what will swing things IMO.

      (of course Warren would have done a better job but …)

      6 votes
      1. [15]
        vord
        Link Parent
        By extension, that's why the 'Bernie is unelectable' argument was BS as well. Outside of like Tom Delany, almost anybody who made it to the debate stages in 2019 is well-poised to beat Trump....

        By extension, that's why the 'Bernie is unelectable' argument was BS as well. Outside of like Tom Delany, almost anybody who made it to the debate stages in 2019 is well-poised to beat Trump.

        Because people aren't voting for Democrats this election....they're voting against Trump. The best bet we have is that the Republicans who think Trump is too far will just sit out. There's too many 'I don't like Trump, but I can't vote for a Democrat' people.

        6 votes
        1. [6]
          Loire
          (edited )
          Link Parent
          The idea that "Bernie is unelectable" is not an enthusiasm issue. It's based on the concept that American elections are less about engaging your base and more about not engaging your oponent's...

          extension, that's why the 'Bernie is unelectable'

          The idea that "Bernie is unelectable" is not an enthusiasm issue. It's based on the concept that American elections are less about engaging your base and more about not engaging your oponent's base. As a first hand witness deep in the trenches of Trump's base I can tell you that they are having a real hard time working up a furor against Biden. Fox news playing in my office every day isn't having the same effect it did in 2016.

          The idea (rightly or wrongly) is that Bernie is easy to propagandize against. He is easily positioned as an existential threat against America, invigorating the depressed Republican base. No matter how much they say it, "Communist/Socialist" is nearly impossible to pin against Biden. Even when they try it just doesn't stick.

          Perhaps we are at the point that nothing would have stuck against Bernie. Who knows. But Biden is so unflinchingly middle of the road that it requires unprecedented levels of cognitive dissonance in Republican supporters to attribute the usual attacks against him.

          14 votes
          1. moonbathers
            Link Parent
            I don't necessarily agree, but I'm also not sure why they haven't gotten anything to stick against Biden. They managed to spin a guy who won three Purple Hearts as a draft dodger against someone...

            I don't necessarily agree, but I'm also not sure why they haven't gotten anything to stick against Biden. They managed to spin a guy who won three Purple Hearts as a draft dodger against someone who effectively actually was one.

            7 votes
          2. [4]
            vord
            Link Parent
            It kind of does though. The right will use those attacks regardless of validity, and they will stick. The right will propagandize anything, and validity doesn't matter, as their base doesn't fact...

            No matter how much they say it, "Communist/Socialist" is nearly impossible to pin against Biden. Even when they try it just doesn't stick.

            It kind of does though. The right will use those attacks regardless of validity, and they will stick. The right will propagandize anything, and validity doesn't matter, as their base doesn't fact check worth a damn.

            $15 minimum wage? Socialism.
            Regulation? Socialism.
            ACA? Socialism.

            But Biden also has a lot more attack venues outside of the typical 'left bad' rhetoric, from the Ukraine to the creepy photos. People have been digging hard to get dirt on Bernie since 2016, and have largely come up empty.

            Edit: In fairness, the vast majority on both sides don't fact check worth a damn. But the right is far more willing to outright lie about stuff too.

            5 votes
            1. [3]
              Loire
              Link Parent
              I mean I am literally sitting in an office with two televisions playing Fox news and a "All Aboard the Trump Train 2020" flag flying on a mast outside. The place is openly political to extreme...

              It kind of does though. The right will use those attacks regardless of validity, and they will stick.

              I mean I am literally sitting in an office with two televisions playing Fox news and a "All Aboard the Trump Train 2020" flag flying on a mast outside. The place is openly political to extreme degrees, and related conversations occur brazenly at all hours of the work day. I am the only non-Republican in the area.

              And as I said: yes, Fox news is trying to use the same old attacks, and (in my little hellish bubble) they aren't sticking. Nobody over here is able to muster the dissonance to swallow them for Biden. I'm seeing more tacit dissent against the "message" than previously.

              I know what the Republican propaganda machine will try to do. I've been following likely as long as you. It's not, currently, working. Whether or not it would have worked for Bernie I can't predict.

              9 votes
              1. [2]
                vord
                Link Parent
                That's fair. I've avoided the FN bubble as much as I can. But I also remember all attacks prior, and a lot of them stuck. I contend the only reason it's not sticking this time (at least publicly)...

                That's fair. I've avoided the FN bubble as much as I can. But I also remember all attacks prior, and a lot of them stuck. I contend the only reason it's not sticking this time (at least publicly) is because Trump is that bad.

                In the friend-of-friend passive Facebook consumption of the various folks I went to HS with, I see a lot of Trump voters with 0 remorse and full on the 'COVID is a myth' train still.

                2 votes
                1. Loire
                  Link Parent
                  Ya, unfortunately there is a lot of "COVID will disappear after the election" bullshitery out here. Some of the message is still landing.

                  the friend-of-friend passive Facebook consumption of the various folks I went to HS with, I see a lot of Trump voters with 0 remorse and full on the 'COVID is a myth' train still.

                  Ya, unfortunately there is a lot of "COVID will disappear after the election" bullshitery out here. Some of the message is still landing.

                  3 votes
        2. [7]
          babypuncher
          Link Parent
          There was a ton of polling showing that Bernie wasn't popular in a number of important swing states like Arizona. Bernie might have still been able to win the Presidency, but Biden getting the...

          There was a ton of polling showing that Bernie wasn't popular in a number of important swing states like Arizona.

          Bernie might have still been able to win the Presidency, but Biden getting the nomination is what put the senate in play.

          Biden with a Democratic congress is more progressive than Bernie with a Congress still partially controlled by Mitch McConnell.

          6 votes
          1. [3]
            Omnicrola
            Link Parent
            I don't understand the relation there, why does that put the Senate in play?

            Bernie might have still been able to win the Presidency, but Biden getting the nomination is what put the senate in play.

            I don't understand the relation there, why does that put the Senate in play?

            2 votes
            1. Kuromantis
              (edited )
              Link Parent
              Straight ticket-voting and downballot effects. Basically the idea is that Bernie being the standard bearer for the Democratic party would affect every democratic politician because they share the...

              Straight ticket-voting and downballot effects. Basically the idea is that Bernie being the standard bearer for the Democratic party would affect every democratic politician because they share the party-tent. IMO this is a glaring examples of how retarded US politics currently are, but the stakes are too high to call this out.

              9 votes
            2. babypuncher
              Link Parent
              Because Bernie does not appeal to moderates who are flocking to Senate candidates like Mark Kelly and Cal Cunningham. Polls conducted with Bernie at the top of the ticket showed both of those...

              Because Bernie does not appeal to moderates who are flocking to Senate candidates like Mark Kelly and Cal Cunningham. Polls conducted with Bernie at the top of the ticket showed both of those candidates performing worse than with Biden at the top.

              3 votes
          2. [3]
            vord
            Link Parent
            I substantially doubt that. While we can't speak to everyone (thanks to secrecy), most people I've talked with basically either pull the R lever or the D lever come November. And the D base is...

            Bernie might have still been able to win the Presidency, but Biden getting the nomination is what put the senate in play.

            I substantially doubt that. While we can't speak to everyone (thanks to secrecy), most people I've talked with basically either pull the R lever or the D lever come November.

            And the D base is already rallied to vote out Trump. The R base isn't going to pull the D lever anyway, at best they'll sit out.

            1 vote
            1. [2]
              babypuncher
              Link Parent
              You've got your anecdotal evidence that there's no such thing as a "moderate", but we have plenty of polling that says otherwise. Voter behavior isn't black and white.

              You've got your anecdotal evidence that there's no such thing as a "moderate", but we have plenty of polling that says otherwise. Voter behavior isn't black and white.

              2 votes
              1. vord
                Link Parent
                Maybe, but this rings true too: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944 There's moderates for sure. But there aren't many...

                Maybe, but this rings true too:

                https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

                There's moderates for sure. But there aren't many swing voters (I've suspected this since about 1996). There's just motivated vs unmotivated.

                3 votes
        3. CALICO
          Link Parent
          Just a small piece of anec-data: In my office, in a career with an environment generally composed of a vocally-dominant right-wing workforce, nobody who voted Trump in 2016 has voiced a plan to...

          The best bet we have is that the Republicans who think Trump is too far will just sit out. There's too many 'I don't like Trump, but I can't vote for a Democrat' people.

          Just a small piece of anec-data: In my office, in a career with an environment generally composed of a vocally-dominant right-wing workforce, nobody who voted Trump in 2016 has voiced a plan to vote his way again this time around. They plan to either sit out the vote, or vote Jo Jorgensen.

          4 votes
  3. Icarus
    Link
    Anecdotally, I happened upon a Fox News online article yesterday about Trump's poll numbers when curiosity got the better of me, and I read up the comments on the article. Surprisingly, it seemed...

    Anecdotally, I happened upon a Fox News online article yesterday about Trump's poll numbers when curiosity got the better of me, and I read up the comments on the article. Surprisingly, it seemed like 60% of the comments were things like:

    • "It will be nice to not have to here about Twitter"
    • "We need 4 years of stability"
    • "Biden is boring, but that isn't a bad thing"

    Warranted, these are online comments and could very well be an astroturf campaign. There is nothing on the comment profiles that indicate they are a bot, or a real person, but I was surprised. It might also have been the time of day that I was reading them as well. I genuinely hope though that it is a sentiment among Republicans.

    3 votes