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    1. Relatively early 2024 Oscar predictions

      I just realized I haven't made a full post with Oscar predictions since January (did one for the Globes and one for the Guild). Well now that we're half-way through the year, here's where I think...

      I just realized I haven't made a full post with Oscar predictions since January (did one for the Globes and one for the Guild). Well now that we're half-way through the year, here's where I think the current Oscar race stands:

      Picture:

      1. The Holdovers
      2. Oppenheimer
      3. Killers of the Flower Moon
      4. Dune: Part Two
      5. Barbie
      6. Past Lives
      7. The Zone of Interest
      8. The Killer
      9. Saltburn
      10. Anatomy of a Fall

      Director:

      1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
      2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
      4. Denis Villenueve - Dune: Part Two
      5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

      Original Screenplay:

      1. The Holdovers
      2. Past Lives
      3. Saltburn
      4. Anatomy of a Fall
      5. May-December

      Adapted Screenplay:

      1. Barbie
      2. Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Oppenheimer
      4. Dune: Part Two
      5. The Zone of Interest

      Lead Actor:

      1. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
      2. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
      3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
      4. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
      5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

      Lead Actress:

      1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
      2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
      3. Natalie Portman - May-December
      4. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
      5. Annette Bening - Nyad

      Supporting Actor:

      1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
      2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
      4. Jesse Plemmons - Killers of the Flower Moon
      5. Teo Yoo - Past Lives

      Supporting Actress:

      1. D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
      2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
      4. Julianne Moore - May-December
      5. Rosamund Pike - Saltburn

      Cinematography:

      1. Oppenheimer
      2. Dune: Part Two
      3. Killers of the Flower Moon
      4. The Killer
      5. The Zone of Interest

      Film Editing:

      1. Oppenheimer
      2. Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Dune: Part Two
      4. The Holdovers
      5. The Killer

      Sound:

      1. Oppenheimer
      2. Dune: Part Two
      3. Killers of the Flower Moon
      4. The Killer
      5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One

      Original Score:

      1. Oppenheimer
      2. Dune: Part Two
      3. The Zone of Interest
      4. The Killer
      5. Past Lives

      Original Song:

      1. "Dance the Night" from Barbie
      2. "Quiet Eyes" from Past Lives
      3. "More of Us" from Wish
      4. "Gonna be You" from 80 For Brady
      5. Original Song from Wonka

      Production Design:

      1. Barbie
      2. Dune: Part Two
      3. Oppenheimer
      4. Killers of the Flower Moon
      5. Wonka

      Costume Design:

      1. Barbie
      2. Oppenheimer
      3. Dune: Part Two
      4. Wonka
      5. Killers of the Flower Moon

      Hair and Make-up:

      1. Oppenheimer
      2. Dune: Part Two
      3. Guaridans of the Galaxy Vol. 3
      4. Renfield
      5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

      VFX:

      1. Dune: Part Two
      2. Oppenheimer
      3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
      4. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One
      5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

      Animated Feature:

      1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
      2. How Do You Live?
      3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
      4. Wish
      5. Nimona
      7 votes
    2. 2024 mid-year Guild predictions

      For those of you who are new I usually post awards predictions from time to time. Some people seem to like it, at least when it was just a handful of active users. Anyways these are predictions I...

      For those of you who are new I usually post awards predictions from time to time. Some people seem to like it, at least when it was just a handful of active users.

      Anyways these are predictions I currently have for “the guilds” meaning industry awards that are not the Oscar’s. Segmented by different unions. They usually are more populist than the Academy, due to many members being from the TV and commercial world. Whenever there’s an artsy contender that they avoid, the Academy nominates it anyway (Drive My Car, Triangle of Sadness, Phantom Thread being some recent examples that come to mind).

      Producers Guild of America Awards (PGA):

      1. The Holdovers
      2. Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Oppenheimer
      4. Dune: Part Two
      5. Barbie
      6. Past Lives
      7. The Zone of Interest
      8. The Killer
      9. Saltburn
      10. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part 1

      Directors Guild of America Awards (DGA):

      1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
      2. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
      3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
      4. Denis Villenueve - Dune: Part Two
      5. Greta Gerwig - Barbie

      Writers Guild of America Awards (WGA):

      Original:

      1. The Holdovers
      2. Past Lives
      3. Saltburn
      4. May/December
      5. Air

      Adapted:

      1. Barbie
      2. Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Oppenheimer
      4. Dune: Part Two
      5. The Killer

      Screen Actor’s Guild Awards (SAG):

      Ensemble:

      1. The Holdovers
      2. Barbie
      3. Killers of the Flower Moon
      4. Oppenheimer
      5. The Color Purple

      Lead Actor:

      1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
      2. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
      3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
      4. Colman Domingo - Rustin
      5. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn

      Lead Actress:

      1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
      2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
      3. Natalie Portman - May/December
      4. Zendaya - Challengers
      5. Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple

      Supporting Actor:

      1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
      2. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
      3. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
      4. John Magaro - Past Lives
      5. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers

      Supporting Actress:

      1. D’avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
      2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
      4. Julianne Moore - May/December
      5. Taraji P. Henson - The Color Purple

      American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE):

      Comedic Editing:

      1. Barbie
      2. The Holdovers
      3. Next Goal Wins
      4. Poor Things
      5. No Hard Feelings

      Dramatic Editing:

      1. Dune: Part Two
      2. Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Oppenheimer
      4. Past Lives
      5. The Killer
      2 votes
    3. Updated post-Cannes 2024 Oscar predictions

      Picture: The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Dune: Part 2 Oppenheimer Past Lives Barbie The Zone of Interest May/December Saltburn The Killer Director: Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower...

      Picture:

      1. The Holdovers
      2. Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Dune: Part 2
      4. Oppenheimer
      5. Past Lives
      6. Barbie
      7. The Zone of Interest
      8. May/December
      9. Saltburn
      10. The Killer

      Director:

      1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
      2. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
      3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
      4. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part 2
      5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

      Original Screenplay:

      1. The Holdovers
      2. Past Lives
      3. May/December
      4. Saltburn
      5. Drive Away Dolls

      Adapted Screenplay:

      1. Barbie
      2. Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Dune: Part 2
      4. Oppenheimer
      5. The Zone of Interest

      Lead Actor:

      1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
      2. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
      3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
      4. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
      5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

      Lead Actress:

      1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
      2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
      3. Natalie Portman - May/December
      4. Annette Bening - Nyad
      5. Zendaya - Challengers

      Supporting Actor:

      1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
      2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
      4. Jesse Plemmons - Killers of the Flower Moon
      5. John Magaro - Past Lives

      Supporting Actress:

      1. D’avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
      2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
      4. Julianne Moore - May/December
      5. Rosamund Pike - Saltburn
      3 votes
    4. Final 2023 Oscar predictions

      Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once It swept the guilds. Last movie to do that was Birdman. I don’t even know what would win in its place anymore. All Quiet on the Western Front? Nah that’s...

      Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once

      It swept the guilds. Last movie to do that was Birdman. I don’t even know what would win in its place anymore. All Quiet on the Western Front? Nah that’s missing too many things. EEAAO’s got this in the bag.

      Director: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All At Once

      DGA winners, next.

      Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere All At Once written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

      I want to predict Banshees winning at least here. But Three Billboards was a stronger movie (it won Globe Drama, SAG Ensemble, and BAFTA Film) and McDonagh lost to Get Out and EEAAO has way more passion.

      Adapted Screenplay: All Quiet on the Western Front screenplay by Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson. Based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque.

      BAFTA has been way more accurate at “predicting” the winner in this category than either Critic’s Choice or WGA. Women Talking only has two nominations, was 10th in Picture, and didn’t even get a BAFTA nomination. So I think the stronger movie here will win.

      Lead Actor: Austin Butler - Elvis

      BAFTA + Globe is a hell of a combo. Fraser would be his biggest competition but the last actor to win for a movie that was not in Picture was Jeff Bridges.

      Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett - TÁR

      Ditto. Yeoh could win here, but Globe and BAFTA has proved an unbeatable combo in recent years.

      Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin

      BAFTA winner again. Bassett was a red herring, Curtis would be a weak winner and has been annoyingly campaigning all season. Mark Rylance went on to win the Oscar for Bridge of Spies after only having won BAFTA in a similarly divided field.

      Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

      He lost BAFTA, but he was the one constant winner in this category. If EEAAO walks away with only one acting award, it’ll be this one.

      Animated Feature: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

      Swept.

      International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front

      Only Picture nominee.

      Documentary: Navalny

      PGA + BAFTA winner.

      Original Score: All Quiet on the Western Front

      Kind of an open category. Babylon won the Globe, but All Quiet won BAFTA. Any of the nominees could potentially win. But I’ll stay safe and stick with the BAFTA winner.

      Original Song: Naatu Naatu from RRR

      Nobody seems to care about any of the other songs. RRR has the passion. Although I can see the case for any of the other nominees winning.

      Sound: Top Gun: Maverick

      Locked.

      Production Design: Babylon

      Swept, locked.

      Cinematography: Elvis

      It’s the only movie to meet all the statistical requirements. It got nominated at all the precursors. It got a production design nomination. And it won at the cinematographer’s guild. It’s also really colorful and flashy. All Quiet would be the closest competition, but that missed a nomination at the guild. This should be Top Gun’s award, but oh well.

      Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis

      Swept.

      Costume Design: Elvis

      Won BAFTA. Black Panther would be its closest competition but that lost at the guild to EEAAO. Elvis fits the stats better (production design nom).

      Film Editing: Top Gun: Maverick

      EEAAO has so far swept these awards, winning BAFTA, ACE Comedy, and Critic’s Choice. However, there is a strong correlation between sound and film editing. The last film editing winner to win without winning Sound was Argo, which still had sound nominations which EEAAO does not have. The last film editing winner without a sound nomination was Traffik in 2002. EEAAO could buck the trend, as it will be a Picture winner just like Argo. But, I’m sticking with the sound stat. Last year Dune did not win a single film editing award, but it won the Oscar due to the correlation. And Top Gun at least has ACE Drama, which is the only precursor Bohemian Rhapsody had before it went on to win the Oscar.

      Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water

      Swept.

      Animated Short: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and the Horse

      Live-Action Short: Le Pupille

      Documentary Short: The Elephant Whisperers

      6 votes
    5. Extremely early 2024 Oscar predictions

      This current season is not over yet, but with a new year comes new movies and new awards predictions. These were the early predictions last year. These are earlier however, so let’s see how it...

      This current season is not over yet, but with a new year comes new movies and new awards predictions. These were the early predictions last year. These are earlier however, so let’s see how it goes this time. I’m only doing a few major categories.

      Picture

      1. The Holdovers
      2. Oppenheimer
      3. Killers of the Flower Moon
      4. Dune: Part Two
      5. Past Lives
      6. Maestro
      7. Poor Things
      8. Blitz
      9. May-December
      10. The Killer

      Director

      1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
      2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two
      4. Celine Song - Past Lives
      5. Todd Haynes - May-December

      Original Screenplay

      1. The Holdovers
      2. Past Lives
      3. Oppenheimer
      4. May-December
      5. Maestro

      Adapted Screenplay

      1. Poor Things
      2. Killers of the Flower Moon
      3. Dune: Part Two
      4. The Killer
      5. Rustin

      Lead Actor

      1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
      2. Bradley Cooper - Maestro
      3. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
      4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
      5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

      Lead Actress

      1. Saoirsa Ronan - Blitz
      2. Emma Stone - Poor Things
      3. Greta Lee - Past Lives
      4. Natalie Portman - May-December
      5. Carrie Mulligan - Maestro
      5 votes
    6. Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow, what would be a nomination that makes you happy?

      For me, as much as I didn’t care for the film, This is a Life from EEAAO getting into original song would make me incredibly happy. It’s such a good song and indie songs like it rarely get...

      For me, as much as I didn’t care for the film, This is a Life from EEAAO getting into original song would make me incredibly happy. It’s such a good song and indie songs like it rarely get nominated.

      Another one would be Glass Onion getting into Supporting Actress and Costumes.

      5 votes
    7. Final 2023 Oscar predictions

      pending Picture The Banshees of Inisherin Everything Everywhere All At Once TÁR The Fabelmans Top Gun: Maverick Elvis Avatar: The Way of Water The Whale All Quiet on the Western Front Triangle of...

      pending

      Picture

      1. The Banshees of Inisherin
      2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      3. TÁR
      4. The Fabelmans
      5. Top Gun: Maverick
      6. Elvis
      7. Avatar: The Way of Water
      8. The Whale
      9. All Quiet on the Western Front
      10. Triangle of Sadness

      Director

      1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
      2. Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      3. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
      4. Todd Field - TÁR
      5. Edward Berger - All Quiet on the Western Front

      Original Screenplay

      1. The Banshees of Inisherin
      2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      3. TÁR
      4. The Fabelmans
      5. Triangle of Sadness

      Adapted Screenplay

      1. All Quiet on the Western Front
      2. The Whale
      3. Living
      4. Glass Onion
      5. Women Talking

      Lead Actor

      1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
      2. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
      3. Austin Butler - Elvis
      4. Bill Nighy - Living
      5. Hugh Jackman - The Son

      Lead Actress

      1. Cate Blanchett - TÁR
      2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      3. Ana De Armas - Blonde
      4. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
      5. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

      Best Supporting Actor

      1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
      2. Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
      3. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      4. Hong Chau - The Whale
      5. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness

      Best Supporting Actor

      1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
      3. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
      4. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
      5. Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse

      Cinematography

      1. Top Gun: Maverick
      2. The Batman
      3. Empire of Light
      4. Elvis
      5. All Quiet on the Western Front

      Costume Design

      1. Elvis
      2. Babylon
      3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
      4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
      5. The Fabelmans

      Film Editing

      1. Top Gun: Maverick
      2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      3. Elvis
      4. The Banshees of Inisherin
      5. TÁR

      Makeup and Hairstyling

      1. The Whale
      2. Elvis
      3. Babylon
      4. The Batman
      5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

      Production Design

      1. Babylon
      2. Avatar: The Way of Water
      3. The Fabelmans
      4. Elvis
      5. All Quiet on the Western Front

      Original Score

      1. Babylon
      2. The Banshees of Inisherin
      3. The Fabelmans
      4. Pinocchio
      5. All Quiet on the Western Front

      Original Song

      1. Naatu Naatu - RRR
      2. Hold My Hand - Top Gun: Maverick
      3. Ciao Papa - Pinocchio
      4. Applause - Tell it Like a Woman
      5. This is a Life - Everything Everywhere All At Once

      Sound

      1. Top Gun: Maverick
      2. Avatar: The Way of Water
      3. Elvis
      4. The Batman
      5. All Quiet on the Western Front

      VFX

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Top Gun: Maverick
      3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
      4. The Batman
      5. All Quiet on the Western Front

      Animated Feature

      1. Pinocchio
      2. Turning Red
      3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
      4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
      5. Inu-Oh

      Documentary

      1. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed
      2. Fire of Love
      3. All That Breathes
      4. Moonage Daydream
      5. Descendant

      International Film

      1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
      2. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
      3. Saint Omer (France)
      4. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
      5. EO (Poland)
      2 votes
    8. Final 2023 Critics Choice Awards predictions

      Picture: EEAAO Director: Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans Original Screenplay: The Banshees of Inisherin Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking Lead Actress: (TIE) Cate Blanchett - Tar and Michelle...

      Picture: EEAAO

      Director: Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans

      Original Screenplay: The Banshees of Inisherin

      Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking

      Lead Actress: (TIE) Cate Blanchett - Tar and Michelle Yeoh - EEAAO

      Lead Actor: Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin

      Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

      Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan - EEAAO

      Ensemble: The Fabelmans

      Young Actor: Gabrielle Labelle - The Fabelmans

      Comedy: EEAAO

      Animated: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

      International Film: RRR

      Original Song: Naatu Naatu - RRR

      Original Score: Babylon

      Film Editing: EEAAO

      Costumes: Babylon

      Production Design: Babylon

      Hair and make-up: The Whale

      Cinematography: Top Gun: Maverick

      2 votes
    9. Final 2023 Golden Globe predictions

      Drama: Elvis Comedy: Everything Everywhere All At Once Director: Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once Screenplay: Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin Lead Actor - Drama: Austin...

      Drama: Elvis

      Comedy: Everything Everywhere All At Once

      Director: Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once

      Screenplay: Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin

      Lead Actor - Drama: Austin Butler - Elvis

      Lead Actress - Drama: Cate Blanchett - TÁR

      Lead Actor - Comedy: Colin Farrell - The Banshees Inisherin

      Lead Actress - Comedy: Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once

      Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

      Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin

      Original Score: The Banshees of Inisherin

      Original Song: Hold My Hand from Top Gun: Maverick

      Animated Feature: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

      International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front

      4 votes
    10. 2023 BAFTA predictions

      BAFTA, aka the British Oscar’s recently released a longlist. In recent years BAFTA has moved onto a juried system. This was made in order to make the nominees more diverse (as BAFTA has often been...

      BAFTA, aka the British Oscar’s recently released a longlist. In recent years BAFTA has moved onto a juried system. This was made in order to make the nominees more diverse (as BAFTA has often been the worst offenders in keeping the nominees white). So if you see some weird nominations from movies you’ve never heard of that’s why.

      There are some categories that are not juried: Film and Screenplay being the above-the-line categories to not be juried at all. But the rest are partially juried, meaning the top 3 of normal vote getters get nominated, and the next 3 are juried. Here we go.

      Best Film

      1. The Banshees of Inisherin
      2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      3. TÁR
      4. Top Gun: Maverick
      5. Triangle of Sadness

      Best Director

      1. The Banshees of Inisherin
      2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      3. TÁR
      4. Aftersun
      5. Saint Omer
      6. Corsage

      Original Screenplay

      1. The Banshees of Inisherin
      2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      3. TÁR
      4. The Fabelmans
      5. Triangle of Sadness

      Adapted Screenplay

      1. Living
      2. All Quiet on the Western Front
      3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
      4. Women Talking
      5. The Wonder

      Lead Actress

      1. Cate Blanchett - TÁR
      2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      3. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
      4. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
      5. Lesley Manville - Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
      6. Ana De Armas - Blonde

      Lead Actor

      1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
      2. Austin Butler - Elvis
      3. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
      4. Bill Nighy - Living
      5. Paul Mescal - Aftersun
      6. Darryl McCormack - Good Luck To You, Leo Grande

      Supporting Actress

      1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
      2. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      3. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness
      4. Aimee Lou Wood - Living
      5. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
      6. Hong Chau - The Whale

      Supporting Actor

      1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
      3. Brad Pitt - Babylon
      4. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
      5. Albert Schuck - All Quiet on the Western Front
      6. Michael Ward - Empire of Light

      Casting

      1. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      2. The Banshees of Inisherin
      3. Triangle of Sadness
      4. Aftersun
      5. All Quiet on the Western Front

      Best British Film

      1. The Banshees of Inisherin
      2. Living
      3. Aftersun
      4. Good Luck To You, Leo Grande
      5. The Wonder
      6. Brian and Charles
      7. Mrs Harris Goes To Paris
      8. Lady Chatterley’s Lover
      9. Blue Jean
      10. Roald Dahl’s Matilda The Musical
      11. Emily
      4 votes
    11. End of the year 2023 Oscar predictions

      Nominations for both the Golden Globes and the Critic’s Choice have been released. Also, today, the shortlist in many categories has also been released. Here’s where I think the race is going and,...

      Nominations for both the Golden Globes and the Critic’s Choice have been released.

      Also, today, the shortlist in many categories has also been released.

      Here’s where I think the race is going and, unlike my other lists, I have an explainer for all the predictions.

      Picture

      1. The Banshees of Inisherin
      2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      3. The Fabelmans
      4. Top Gun: Maverick
      5. Avatar: The Way of Water
      6. Tár
      7. Elvis
      8. Babylon
      9. Women Talking
      10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

      Alt: Triangle of Sadness

      The top 9 are all pretty clearly happening. Even with mixed-to-negative reviews Babylon is still going to get a lot of below-the-line nominations and one or two acting nominations which would be more than enough to get a Picture nomination. In a similar way to Vice or Don’t Look Up, Babylon is just too big to fail.

      Really, the only thing that’s left up to debate is the 10th nominee. There are three contenders for that spot: Glass Onion, Triangle of Sadness, and RRR. I just don’t see a big enough push from critics for RRR to happen, nor do I see much international appeal/acclaim for that film to happen. Triangle of Sadness has a lot of European support (as it won the Palme and the Euro Oscars). However, Glass Onion is my pick. It made a killing in its limited release. It’s going to be extremely popular when it hits Netlfix in a few days, and unlike the first Knives Out, it’s likely to get an acting nomination.

      Director:

      1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
      2. Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      3. James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water
      4. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
      5. Todd Field - Tár

      Alt: Joseph Kosinski - Top Gun: Maverick

      These seem like an easy five. Chazelle was supposed to be a contender but after he missed at the Globes (who were supposed to love the film) he’s not happening. McDonagh was snubbed in this category five years ago for Three Billboards. But, frankly, Banshees is a stronger contender than that film was. He has a lot of high brow support this time around, which he didn’t last time, which led to Paul Thomas Anderson getting nominated in Phantom Thread. Kosinski I think is getting a DGA nomination, but the director’s branch is known for their high brow taste and Cameron already has the action-adventure movie. Not to mention the directing duo of Daniels having an action movie as well.

      Original Screenplay

      1. The Banshees of Inisherin
      2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      3. Tár
      4. The Fabelmans
      5. Triangle of Sadness

      Babylon missed Screenplay at both the Globes and Critic’s Choice. While it’s probably getting a nomination at WGA, it’s dead in this category. There’s really only one other choice here and that’s Triangle of Sadness. It has the support to get it there.

      I currently think Banshees is winning as, again, it’s a stronger movie than Three Billboards. EEAAO can still win as Get Out beat McDonagh last time. But I just don’t see it happen. Get Out won more screenplay awards with critics than EEAAO.

      Adapted Screenplay

      1. Women Talking
      2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
      3. Living
      4. The Whale
      5. Bones and All

      The top 3 are locked. The Whale would miss in a stronger year but there isn’t a lot of choice in this category. Bones and All I think makes sense as a passion pick. It won two awards at Venice. I had Pinocchio in this category a little while ago but that’s also dead here. Another possibility is She Said, but no one actually cares about that movie and it’s not the type of thing that gets in as a sole Screenplay nominee. Those usually go to offbeat things like The Lobster.

      Lead Actor

      1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
      2. Austin Butler - Elvis
      3. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
      4. Bill Nighy - Living
      5. Tom Cruise - Top Gun: Maverick

      The top 4 are locked. The fifth nominee here is a tough one. Again, not a lot of choice. Hugh Jackman is in a movie no one cares about. Babylon is probably not gonna be strong enough to get its lead into this category. Leaving us with Tom Cruise.

      Lead Actress

      1. Cate Blanchett - Tár
      2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      3. Margot Robbie - Babylon
      4. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
      5. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

      I Wanna Dance With Somebody is dead. It has worse reviews than Bohemian Rhapsody, it’s not going to make as much money as BoRap, and Ackie did not get nominations at the Globes or Critic’s Choice.

      Supporting Actor

      1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
      3. Brad Pitt - Babylon
      4. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
      5. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans

      Keoghan has been getting tons of acclaim so him getting in alongside Gleeson for Banshees seems like it’s happening. The only one here I’m not too sure about is Dano who missed out on a nomination at the Globes. I’m not sure who would replace him as of right now though and I think Fabelmans gets more than one acting nomination.

      Supporting Actress

      1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
      2. Janelle Monae - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
      3. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
      4. Jessie Buckley - Women Talking
      5. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness

      Outside of Condon, none of these are guaranteed. I think Monae is definitely getting in, especially if Glass Onion is a Picture nominee, but she did miss out on a Globe nomination. Women Talking is either only getting Buckley as an acting nomination or its getting no acting noms. I’m counting on De Leon getting that Euro push which gave Buckley a nomination last year for The Lost Daughter.

      Cinematography

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Babylon
      3. The Fabelmans
      4. Top Gun: Maverick
      5. Tár

      These seem like an easy top 5. Maybe Empire of Light gets in because of Roger Deakins’s name. But no one cares about it.

      Film Editing

      1. Top Gun: Maverick
      2. Avatar: The Way of Water
      3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
      4. Elvis
      5. The Banshees of Inisherin

      Fabelmans is probably missing here, so is Babylon. Film Editing is usually reserved either for Top 5 movies or for extremely flashy editing. Fabelmans isn’t flashy and Babylon isn’t going to be strong enough. Top Gun: Maverick is an easy winner in this category alongside other bombastic winners like Ford vs Ferrari and The Bourne Ultimatum.

      Sound

      1. Top Gun: Maverick
      2. Avatar: The Way of Water
      3. Elvis
      4. Babylon
      5. Everything Everywhere All At Once

      The top 4 seem like they’re happening. The fifth one is more up in the air. The sound branch usually likes nominating Best Picture nominees though and Fabelmans missed the shortlist which is why I have EEAAO in there. Top Gun is an easy winner here again. Plus, there’s a correlation between Film Editing and Sound.

      Original Score

      1. The Fabelmans
      2. Babylon
      3. The Banshees of Inisherin
      4. Women Talking
      5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

      Avatar got snubbed at the Globes, which means it’s probably not happening. It’s also not that flashy of a score and contains kind of milquetoast action movie music. I currently have Fabelmans winning as John Williams is retiring after he finishes up Indiana Jones. However, I don’t think there’s a clear winner here right now.

      Original Song

      1. "Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick
      2. “Ciao Papa” from Pinocchio
      3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
      4. “Applause” from Tell It Like A Woman
      5. “Nothing is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water

      Naatu Naatu has a lot of passion. Applause is from Diane Warren who gets nominated for her boring documentary songs every year.

      Production Design

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Babylon
      3. The Fabelmans
      4. Elvis
      5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

      Costume Design

      1. Babylon
      2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
      3. Elvis
      4. The Fabelmans
      5. Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris

      Make-up and Hairstyling

      1. The Whale
      2. Elvis
      3. Babylon
      4. The Batman
      5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

      VFX

      1. Avatar: The Way of Water
      2. Top Gun: Maverick
      3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
      4. The Batman
      5. Nope

      I actually had EEAAO here but it missed the VFX shortlist.

      Animated Feature

      1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
      2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes
      3. Turning Red
      4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
      5. Inu-Oh

      Pinocchio is the front-runner here, Marcel has a lot of passion amongst hipster types and has been getting in everywhere. Disney’s only real contender in this category is Turning Red. Puss in Boots has been getting in everywhere. Inu-Oh got a Globe nomination but I don’t really know what else would get in there. Kind of a weak year for animated films.

      International Film

      1. Decision to Leave
      2. All Quiet on the Western Front
      3. Close
      4. Saint Omer
      5. The Quiet Girl

      Documentary

      1. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed
      2. Moonage Daydream
      3. Fire of Love
      4. All That Breathes
      5. Descendant

      Okay that’s all I got for you. I cut out some of the commentary because I feel like I went on too long in the beginning.

      3 votes
    12. 2023 Golden Globe nominations

      https://www.goldenglobes.com/winners-nominees Best Picture - Drama Avatar: The Way of Water Elvis The Fabelmans TÁR Top Gun: Maverick Best Picture - Musical/Comedy Babylon The Banshees of...

      https://www.goldenglobes.com/winners-nominees

      Best Picture - Drama

      Avatar: The Way of Water

      Elvis

      The Fabelmans

      TÁR

      Top Gun: Maverick

      Best Picture - Musical/Comedy

      Babylon

      The Banshees of Inisherin

      Everything Everywhere All At Once

      Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

      Triangle of Sadness

      Best Actress - Motion Picture - Drama

      Cate Blanchett - TÁR

      Olivia Colman - Empire of Light

      Viola Davis - The Woman King

      Ana De Armas - Blonde

      Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

      Best Actor - Motion Picture - Drama

      Austin Butler - Elvis

      Brendan Fraser - The Whale

      Hugh Jackman - The Son

      Bill Nighy - Living

      Jeremy Pope - The Inspection

      Best Actress - Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy

      Lesley Manville - Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris

      Margot Robbie - Babylon

      Anya Taylor-Joy - The Menu

      Emma Thompson - Good Luck To You, Leo Grande

      Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once

      Best Actor - Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

      Diego Calva - Babylon

      Daniel Craig - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

      Adam Driver - White Noise

      Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin

      Ralph Finnes - The Menu

      Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture

      Angela Basset - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

      Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin

      Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once

      Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness

      Carey Mulligan - She Said

      Best Supporting Actor - Motion Picture

      Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin

      Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin

      Brad Pitt - Babylon

      Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

      Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse

      Best Director - Motion Picture

      James Cameron - Avatar: The Way of Water

      Daniels - Everyhting Everywhere All At Once

      Baz Luhrmann - Elvis

      Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin

      Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans

      Best Screenplay - Motion Picture

      TÁR

      Everything Everywhere All At Once

      The Banshees of Inisherin

      Women Talking

      The Fabelmans

      Best Picture - Animated

      Guillermo Del Torro’s Pinocchio

      Inu-Oh

      Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

      Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

      Turning Red

      Best Picture - Non-English Language

      All Quiet on the Western Front

      Argentina, 1985

      Close

      Decision to Leave

      RRR

      Best Score - Motion Picture

      The Banshees of Inisherin

      Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

      Women Talking

      Babylon

      The Fabelmans

      Best Song - Motion Picture

      Carolina from Where The Crawdads Sing

      Ciao Papa from Pinocchio

      Hold My Hand from Top Gun: Maverick

      Lift Me Up from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

      Naatu Naatu from RRR

      5 votes
    13. AFI 2022 Awards

      https://www.afi.com/award/afi-awards-2022/ Movies of the year: Avatar: The Way of Water Elvis Everything Everywhere All At Once The Fabelmans Nope She Said Tár Top Gun: Maverick The Woman King...

      https://www.afi.com/award/afi-awards-2022/

      Movies of the year:

      Avatar: The Way of Water

      Elvis

      Everything Everywhere All At Once

      The Fabelmans

      Nope

      She Said

      Tár

      Top Gun: Maverick

      The Woman King

      Women Talking

      AFI Special Award: The Banshees of Inisherin

      TV:

      Abbott Elementary

      The Bear

      Better Call Saul

      Hacks

      Mo

      Pachinko

      Reservation Dogs

      Severance

      Somebody Somewhere

      The White Lotus

      3 votes