Megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - April 13-14

Let me recap what I've seen today:

My bank sent me a cryptic (and creepy) message saying "Your [bank name] app is working fine. All operations are available. Please don't delete the app". I thought "...okay, that's needy, but I wasn't going to, even though I'm tempted now". Had to research what the hell had happened. Turns out, the app was removed from the App Store (and later from Google Play Store) due to sanctions. You can no longer download it, though you can still use the installed app. (If you're following the news, you know which bank that is: I think it's the only one that had its app nixed in this fashion.)

On the bank's front page, there was a new section about "unmasking the fakes" about the bank. It used to reassure users that everything is working just fine, there are no hacks, there are no unsanctioned money withdrawals, there is no way to covertly make purchases using someone's card information, and there were definitely no leaks of banking details with which to make such purchases. In other words, I'm assuming something'd happened. My money is fine so far.

Then, the national services site (Gosuslugi, or roughly "GovServices") showed me a notification about accepting enrollment into a new state program which pays for up to 100% of tuition costs of those who apply to study IT skills. Server management, backend dev, frontend dev, testing, app dev, design... You get 50% off if your income is deemed too low by the national standards, and 75% or 100% off if you're a pensioner or unemployed. As far as I can tell, it's a perfectly real program that's designed to combat the massive brain drain that's happened recently.

A week or so ago I've also seen an article in Meduza (a Russian oppositional online newspaper) in Russian about the measures the Russian government is taking to invite Russian citizens working in IT abroad back into the country. Russia's offering monetary incentives, including resettlement money to get one on one's feet upon their arrival into the country. (I wish I could find the article now 'cause I realize I've been talking a lot without sources, but I can't now. If you know what I'm talking about, please link it here.)

Personally, I wouldn't want to get back to Russia if I'd already established a spot abroad. The only reason I can think of is holding a strong pro-Russian position, and even then... Europe and the US pay more (a lot more, considering what's happening to the Russian economy in real time), either has a much higher baseline quality of life, plus it's gonna take uprooting your well-established (probably relatively-wealthy) lifestyle to move to a country which is quickly turning into a huge massively-isolated island of a nation which thin supply of quality electronics and no ability to establish a decent-grade infrastructure for... basically anything, from roads to medicine to IT¹. I'm just not seeing the appeal.

¹ From what I understand, the UI/UX of banking and government apps is superb relative to some of the EU/US counterparts. It is, in my experience, indeed very nice: easy to navigate and to use.

Ukraine War Pushes Germans to Change. They Are Wavering. (NYT)

Chancellor Olaf Scholz surprised the world, and his own country, when he responded to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with a 100-billion-euro plan to arm Germany, send weapons to Ukraine and end his nation’s deep dependence on Russian energy.

It was Germany’s biggest foreign policy shift since the Cold War, what Mr. Scholz called a “Zeitenwende” — an epochal change — that won applause for his leadership at home and abroad.

But six weeks later, the applause has largely ceased. Even as images of atrocities emerge from Ukraine since the invasion by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, Mr. Scholz has ruled out an immediate oil and gas embargo, saying it would be too costly. He is dragging his feet on sending 100 armored vehicles to Ukraine, saying that Germany must not “rush ahead.” There are new debates in the ruling coalition about just how to go forward with the massive task Mr. Scholz has laid out, let alone how fast.

Already doubts are building as to the German government’s commitment to its own radical plans. “Zeitenwende is real, but the country is the same,” said Thomas Bagger, a senior German diplomat who will be the next ambassador to Poland. “Not everyone likes it.”

Since Mr. Scholz put forth his Zeitenwende before a special session of the Parliament on Feb. 27, multiple cracks in Germany’s commitment to change have already begun to appear.

German celebrities made headlines with an appeal to the government against rearmament and the “180-degree change in German foreign policy” that has so far been signed by 45,000 people. Green lawmakers have lobbied to spend only part of the €100 billion special fund on the military, citing other needs like “human security” and climate change. Labor unions and industry bosses are warning of catastrophic damage to the economy and an immediate recession if Russian gas stops flowing.

As the chief executive of the German chemicals giant BASF, Michael Heinz, put it last week: “Cheap Russian energy has been the basis of our industry’s competitiveness.”

It has in fact been the basis of the German economy. Now that German businesses are facing the possibility of being asked to do without it, resistance is quietly mounting. Government ministers say they are being asked discreetly by business leaders when things will “go back to normal” — that is, when they can return to business as usual.

Russian Navy confirms severe damage to Black Sea cruiser Moskva, crew abandoned ship

Ukraine is claiming they have sunk the Russian Navy's Black Sea flagship, Moskva. Russia is only stating that a fire caused them to abandon ship.

Key Russian railway bridge destroyed in Belgorod near border with Ukraine (The Guardian)

A key Russian railway bridge has been damaged in the border region with Ukraine in a potential act of sabotage – as Russia relies on its railroads to shift its attacking forces in preparation for a massive assault on eastern Ukraine.

Photographs from the bridge in Russia’s Belgorod region showed that a section of rail had been forced upward, possibly due to an explosion. The photographs, as well as news of the incident, were first published on Tuesday by the local Russian governor and local media.

“There are no casualties,” governor Vyacheslav Gladkov wrote in an online statement. “Only the railway track is destroyed … I will inform you about the reasons later.”

The incident comes as Russia has begun militarising its border regions near Ukraine by raising threat alerts, erecting military checkpoints and mobilising local townspeople in a sign that Russia’s war effort is shifting toward east Ukraine.

War in Ukraine (Channel 5 with Andrew Callaghan)

A twelve-minute video with some on-the-ground footage in Ukraine. Andrew interviews several citizens and displaced families about the war, Bucha atrocities, the Azov Battalion, coverage in Russia, and humanitarian efforts.

Pentagon asks top 8 U.S. weapons makers to meet on Ukraine -sources (Reuters)

The Pentagon will host leaders from the top eight U.S. weapons manufacturers on Wednesday to discuss the industry's capacity to meet Ukraine's weapons needs if the war with Russia lasts years, two people familiar with the meeting said on Tuesday.

The Pentagon's office of Acquisition and Sustainment, the weapons buyer for the U.S. Department of Defense, will host the 90 minute meeting and Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks was expected to attend, one of the people said.

The Pentagon has said that the most useful weapons are smaller systems such as Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, which Washington and allies have been shipping to Ukraine on a nearly daily basis.

The intense usage, as well as the battlefield effectiveness displayed by Ukrainian forces, has driven interest in restocking these weapons.

Raytheon Technologies (RTX.N) and Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) jointly produce Javelins, while Raytheon makes Stingers. Other top weapons makers are Boeing Co (BA.N) Northrop Grumman (NOC.N), General Dynamics (GD.N) and L3Harris Technologies (LHX.N).

World Bank planning to give support worth $1.5bn to Ukraine (The Guardian)

The bank said the funds would be used to support the continuation of key government services, including wages for hospital workers, pensions for elderly people, and social programmes for vulnerable people.

In addition to $944m of emergency financing already mobilised by the World Bank, the institution said it was preparing the fresh funding to help essential government services continue to function during the war.

The $1.5bn investment project financing includes $1bn of support through its International Development Association arm, as well as $472m in funding guaranteed by its International Bank for Reconstruction and Development division.

Announcing the funds in a speech in Poland on Tuesday, David Malpass, the president of the World Bank, said the organisation was providing immediate working capital for companies providing critical supplies to Ukraine.

The West Must Help Ukraine Free Its People To Stop Russian Atrocities (Institute for the Study of War)

Leaders of Poland and Baltic states in Kyiv to discuss military assistance (Reuters)

The presidents of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia arrived in Kyiv on Wednesday to meet Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Polish leader's office said.

The meeting will focus on ways to assist civilians and the military in Ukraine, as well as with investigations of war crimes, said a spokesperson for Estonian President Alar Karis.

The four presidents' offices declined to provide details of the visit for security reasons.