An Israeli invasion could push an already unstable Lebanon over the edge into total state collapse Chosen excerpts. Netanyahu and his government must absolutely go before this insane ethnostate...
Lebanon is a vulnerable country that has been plagued by devastating economic and political crises, corruption, human rights violations and a breakdown in trust between the government and society over the past decade. Its economy is fragile, having never recovered from the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The COVID-19 pandemic hammered the Lebanese economy when it was still reeling from the collapse of its financial system in 2019 and the default on its unbearably high levels of debt in 2020.
Global inflationary and cost of living pressures have further undermined the ability of ordinary Lebanese to provide for themselves and their families. The country has haemorrhaged capital in recent years and very few foreign investors have the stomach to risk their money there. Per capita incomes have declined substantially and remain very low at around US$3,300 (£2,460) – down from around US$9,000 in 2018).
Lebanon’s economy has gone into reverse since the crisis in 2019, with gross domestic product declining from US$59 billion in 2018 to just US$22 billion today. Coupled with a 95% depreciation of the Lebanese pound and inflation that has hit 200%, nearly half the population is now below the poverty line.
There has been a breakdown in waste disposal and electricity supplies (Lebanon’s state power company struggles to supply even two hours of electricity per day). Reserves of foreign currencies are exceptionally low and Lebanon runs a trade deficit that hovers around US$9 billion annually. This has further strained the ability of ordinary Lebanese to access the goods and services they need to survive (let alone thrive).
Even short wars tend to have devastating economic effects that last long after the fighting ends. If history tells us anything about the current conflict we can expect a prolonged and intense fight between Israel and Hezbollah – one that is going to involve Israeli troops on the ground in Lebanon. This war could very easily destroy the Lebanese economy, bringing the entire country to the point of collapse.
The current conflict could destabilise Lebanon to such an extent that there is even potential for a second civil war. This would serve no one’s interest. An unstable, devastated and failing Lebanon will only have negative ramifications for all in the Middle East, including Israel.
If the Hobbesian logic of the strong doing what they will, and the weak suffering what they must is allowed to continue, only collapse and ruin will follow in Lebanon, the Middle East and further afield. It is imperative that sense and reason prevail and the war between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah de-escalates.
Netanyahu and his government must absolutely go before this insane ethnostate invasions of various nations leads to another era of unending chaos. It's insane to me how people aren't seeing how he and his government are destabilizing the whole region for their own benefit. Even Biden's -a self-admitted and proud Zionist's- administration has admitted Israel's strategy is incoherent and without clear goals.
If Israel was an Arab nation that opposed American interests, Americans and their white allies would already be calling it a terrorist state. But my point isn't that Israel should be demolished, only that Netanyahu and other far-right nutwings have been pushing propaganda that present the situation as if they are doing what's best for Israel, while they're destroying the region in the meanwhile.
Right now, Netanyahu government is the biggest threat to middle-east's stability, by a longshot.
Edit: As a person living in ME, I hate how our well-being is tied to the choice of American sociopath politicians and their population's support or opposition to their policies. There's a very significant chance US could find a way to de-escalate the situation, but it's not really trying anything. It could stop fucking sending arms and support to Israel's insane campaign, for example, but it's not doing that because something about "US interests". Fucking inhuman. Every time I see someone support Israel's policies and US's support of it, I remember we're not really human to you guys (not you who oppose it).
The US are Israel’s enablers. Israel wouldn’t (and probably couldn’t) do any of what they do without support from the US. Every time the US looks to be bringing some stability they just make some...
There's a very significant chance US could find a way to de-escalate the situation, but it's not really trying anything. It could stop fucking sending arms and support to Israel's insane campaign, for example, but it's not doing that because something about "US interests".
The US are Israel’s enablers. Israel wouldn’t (and probably couldn’t) do any of what they do without support from the US.
Every time the US looks to be bringing some stability they just make some weak comment like “we don’t want the situation to escalate”. Without clearly doing anything about it. Maybe it’s all through backchannels and we don’t hear about it, but given Israel’s actions this seems unlikely.
I've heard two theories regarding the US participation in this, but it would take someone smarter than me to determine the degree of truth they hold. Israel has lot of dirt on American...
I've heard two theories regarding the US participation in this, but it would take someone smarter than me to determine the degree of truth they hold.
Israel has lot of dirt on American politicians. Their hacking capabilities are not only for sale, but of course also for gathering influence for themselves.
US actually benefits from instability in the region - any region other than US. As long as local wars are fought, and their army stays strong, no contender to their hegemony arises.
Iran is apparently going to get directly involved. I assume they have made various guarantees to their proxy forces, and are obliged to do this. White House believes Iran is preparing imminent...
Iran is apparently going to get directly involved. I assume they have made various guarantees to their proxy forces, and are obliged to do this.
“The United States has indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel. We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack. A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran,” a senior White House official said in a statement.
Well the Lebanese army supposedly pulled back to basically allow this? It’s not like Lebanon loves Hezbollah. This could obviously become a fucking nightmare real quick but it’s supposedly going...
Well the Lebanese army supposedly pulled back to basically allow this? It’s not like Lebanon loves Hezbollah.
This could obviously become a fucking nightmare real quick but it’s supposedly going to be much smaller and targeted (not that you can trust any military on their supposed operational goals but it’s not like we have more to go on right now).
I'm hoping this allows the Lebanese Govt/AF to take better control of southern Lebanon. Not that I think Lebanon and Israel are about to be friends, but the Lebanese Govt cannot afford a conflict...
I'm hoping this allows the Lebanese Govt/AF to take better control of southern Lebanon. Not that I think Lebanon and Israel are about to be friends, but the Lebanese Govt cannot afford a conflict with Israel, especially given all the economic crises they've suffered through in the last few years. So at the very least, Israel and Lebanon can coldly ignore each other. That's still peace, after all.
Oh, I read that as them retreating to more defensible positions (or at least behind UNIFIL). If you're the Lebanese in this situation, would you have any faith in Israel being better at separating...
Oh, I read that as them retreating to more defensible positions (or at least behind UNIFIL). If you're the Lebanese in this situation, would you have any faith in Israel being better at separating Lebanese and Hezbollah than they are at separating Palestinians and Hamas?
I don't mean this as a defense of Israel's actions, so please don't take it that way - but the short answer is yes, because the situation is very different. Gaza is basically one big city. There's...
If you're the Lebanese in this situation, would you have any faith in Israel being better at separating Lebanese and Hezbollah than they are at separating Palestinians and Hamas?
I don't mean this as a defense of Israel's actions, so please don't take it that way - but the short answer is yes, because the situation is very different. Gaza is basically one big city. There's nowhere for civilians to go, there's no clear terrain; from a military perspective it literally doesn't get any worse. By contrast in southern Lebanon we're talking about villages that can basically be abandoned.
Again, that's not me saying that this is all fine. But it does mean that it will be easier for Israel's forces to separate civilians from combatants.
That's a perspective that benefits from the external POV and not being there right now and reasoning through the military process. I don't think I'd feel safer as a civilian in Lebanon because my...
That's a perspective that benefits from the external POV and not being there right now and reasoning through the military process. I don't think I'd feel safer as a civilian in Lebanon because my village could be abandoned. I heard terrified teenagers after the pagers exploded. They weren't affiliated with Hezbollah, they're just kids. I don't think I'd feel better that my small town is "easier" to evacuate than a larger city if we were being invaded. Nor make me more confident I wouldn't be collateral damage or that the military would bother to try to avoid it. It doesn't really even matter who that military is.
I mean there’s 0 doubt the plan is “kill basically everyone they see”. Militaries in these situations aren’t checking ID. It’s still going to be awful, it might be less awful than it could be. War...
I mean there’s 0 doubt the plan is “kill basically everyone they see”. Militaries in these situations aren’t checking ID. It’s still going to be awful, it might be less awful than it could be. War rarely is much else
An Israeli invasion could push an already unstable Lebanon over the edge into total state collapse
Chosen excerpts.
Netanyahu and his government must absolutely go before this insane ethnostate invasions of various nations leads to another era of unending chaos. It's insane to me how people aren't seeing how he and his government are destabilizing the whole region for their own benefit. Even Biden's -a self-admitted and proud Zionist's- administration has admitted Israel's strategy is incoherent and without clear goals.
If Israel was an Arab nation that opposed American interests, Americans and their white allies would already be calling it a terrorist state. But my point isn't that Israel should be demolished, only that Netanyahu and other far-right nutwings have been pushing propaganda that present the situation as if they are doing what's best for Israel, while they're destroying the region in the meanwhile.
Right now, Netanyahu government is the biggest threat to middle-east's stability, by a longshot.
Edit: As a person living in ME, I hate how our well-being is tied to the choice of American sociopath politicians and their population's support or opposition to their policies. There's a very significant chance US could find a way to de-escalate the situation, but it's not really trying anything. It could stop fucking sending arms and support to Israel's insane campaign, for example, but it's not doing that because something about "US interests". Fucking inhuman. Every time I see someone support Israel's policies and US's support of it, I remember we're not really human to you guys (not you who oppose it).
The US are Israel’s enablers. Israel wouldn’t (and probably couldn’t) do any of what they do without support from the US.
Every time the US looks to be bringing some stability they just make some weak comment like “we don’t want the situation to escalate”. Without clearly doing anything about it. Maybe it’s all through backchannels and we don’t hear about it, but given Israel’s actions this seems unlikely.
I've heard two theories regarding the US participation in this, but it would take someone smarter than me to determine the degree of truth they hold.
Link’s dead. Here’s another source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/30/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ground-invasion.html?unlocked_article_code=1.O04.-Hao.3sttG6_ak6Uf&smid=url-share
Iran is apparently going to get directly involved. I assume they have made various guarantees to their proxy forces, and are obliged to do this.
White House believes Iran is preparing imminent ballistic missile attack against Israel
That link seems to be broken. Here’s a similar article from WSJ: White House Says Iran Missile Attack on Israel Is Imminent
Fixed the link.
I'm sure this will go fine. sigh
Well the Lebanese army supposedly pulled back to basically allow this? It’s not like Lebanon loves Hezbollah.
This could obviously become a fucking nightmare real quick but it’s supposedly going to be much smaller and targeted (not that you can trust any military on their supposed operational goals but it’s not like we have more to go on right now).
I'm hoping this allows the Lebanese Govt/AF to take better control of southern Lebanon. Not that I think Lebanon and Israel are about to be friends, but the Lebanese Govt cannot afford a conflict with Israel, especially given all the economic crises they've suffered through in the last few years. So at the very least, Israel and Lebanon can coldly ignore each other. That's still peace, after all.
Oh, I read that as them retreating to more defensible positions (or at least behind UNIFIL). If you're the Lebanese in this situation, would you have any faith in Israel being better at separating Lebanese and Hezbollah than they are at separating Palestinians and Hamas?
I don't mean this as a defense of Israel's actions, so please don't take it that way - but the short answer is yes, because the situation is very different. Gaza is basically one big city. There's nowhere for civilians to go, there's no clear terrain; from a military perspective it literally doesn't get any worse. By contrast in southern Lebanon we're talking about villages that can basically be abandoned.
Again, that's not me saying that this is all fine. But it does mean that it will be easier for Israel's forces to separate civilians from combatants.
That's a perspective that benefits from the external POV and not being there right now and reasoning through the military process. I don't think I'd feel safer as a civilian in Lebanon because my village could be abandoned. I heard terrified teenagers after the pagers exploded. They weren't affiliated with Hezbollah, they're just kids. I don't think I'd feel better that my small town is "easier" to evacuate than a larger city if we were being invaded. Nor make me more confident I wouldn't be collateral damage or that the military would bother to try to avoid it. It doesn't really even matter who that military is.
I mean there’s 0 doubt the plan is “kill basically everyone they see”. Militaries in these situations aren’t checking ID. It’s still going to be awful, it might be less awful than it could be. War rarely is much else