Israeli military announces ground invasion of Southern Lebanon

An Israeli invasion could push an already unstable Lebanon over the edge into total state collapse

Chosen excerpts.

Lebanon is a vulnerable country that has been plagued by devastating economic and political crises, corruption, human rights violations and a breakdown in trust between the government and society over the past decade. Its economy is fragile, having never recovered from the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The COVID-19 pandemic hammered the Lebanese economy when it was still reeling from the collapse of its financial system in 2019 and the default on its unbearably high levels of debt in 2020.

Global inflationary and cost of living pressures have further undermined the ability of ordinary Lebanese to provide for themselves and their families. The country has haemorrhaged capital in recent years and very few foreign investors have the stomach to risk their money there. Per capita incomes have declined substantially and remain very low at around US$3,300 (£2,460) – down from around US$9,000 in 2018).

Lebanon’s economy has gone into reverse since the crisis in 2019, with gross domestic product declining from US$59 billion in 2018 to just US$22 billion today. Coupled with a 95% depreciation of the Lebanese pound and inflation that has hit 200%, nearly half the population is now below the poverty line.

There has been a breakdown in waste disposal and electricity supplies (Lebanon’s state power company struggles to supply even two hours of electricity per day). Reserves of foreign currencies are exceptionally low and Lebanon runs a trade deficit that hovers around US$9 billion annually. This has further strained the ability of ordinary Lebanese to access the goods and services they need to survive (let alone thrive).

Even short wars tend to have devastating economic effects that last long after the fighting ends. If history tells us anything about the current conflict we can expect a prolonged and intense fight between Israel and Hezbollah – one that is going to involve Israeli troops on the ground in Lebanon. This war could very easily destroy the Lebanese economy, bringing the entire country to the point of collapse.

The current conflict could destabilise Lebanon to such an extent that there is even potential for a second civil war. This would serve no one’s interest. An unstable, devastated and failing Lebanon will only have negative ramifications for all in the Middle East, including Israel.

If the Hobbesian logic of the strong doing what they will, and the weak suffering what they must is allowed to continue, only collapse and ruin will follow in Lebanon, the Middle East and further afield. It is imperative that sense and reason prevail and the war between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah de-escalates.

Netanyahu and his government must absolutely go before this insane ethnostate invasions of various nations leads to another era of unending chaos. It's insane to me how people aren't seeing how he and his government are destabilizing the whole region for their own benefit. Even Biden's -a self-admitted and proud Zionist's- administration has admitted Israel's strategy is incoherent and without clear goals.

If Israel was an Arab nation that opposed American interests, Americans and their white allies would already be calling it a terrorist state. But my point isn't that Israel should be demolished, only that Netanyahu and other far-right nutwings have been pushing propaganda that present the situation as if they are doing what's best for Israel, while they're destroying the region in the meanwhile.

Right now, Netanyahu government is the biggest threat to middle-east's stability, by a longshot.

Edit: As a person living in ME, I hate how our well-being is tied to the choice of American sociopath politicians and their population's support or opposition to their policies. There's a very significant chance US could find a way to de-escalate the situation, but it's not really trying anything. It could stop fucking sending arms and support to Israel's insane campaign, for example, but it's not doing that because something about "US interests". Fucking inhuman. Every time I see someone support Israel's policies and US's support of it, I remember we're not really human to you guys (not you who oppose it).