Weekly Middle East war megathread - week of October 14

Israel is a rogue nation. It should be removed from the United Nations

U.S. warns Israel it will withhold arms unless Gaza aid starts flowing (Washington Post)

The Biden administration sharply intensified pressure on Israel this week to improve dire conditions for civilians in the Gaza Strip, warning that it would be forced to take punitive measures, potentially including a suspension of military aid, if the flow of humanitarian assistance is not increased within a month.

In an Oct. 13 letter to senior Israeli officials, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin demanded urgent steps to ensure that noncombatants have access to food and other necessities, blaming lawlessness and actions by the Israeli government in permitting a deterioration of conditions in Gaza, according to two officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss correspondence that had not been made public.

Absent a change, Blinken and Austin cautioned, the administration would be obliged to take steps laid out under policies linking compliance with international norms to the provision of U.S. weapons and military assistance. The letter gives Netanyahu one month to comply, which would delay any action until after the U.S. presidential election.

Leaking this seems like a political move. I suppose it’s good that they are gesturing at possibly doing something, though I don’t know if Biden would follow through even if Harris wins.

But it would be convenient for Harris if it did turn out that way, with Biden taking the blame for cutting off Israeli aid before she starts office. It would change the status quo and then Israel and its supporters would have to try to justify resuming military aid.

It may be that Israel decides that don’t need US military aid all that much, so the US loses a (fairly weak) point of leverage, but gains being a little less entangled in Israel’s wars.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna175892

Sounds like Israel thinks it got Sinwar (by accident, too). Can’t say that the IDF hasn’t made a statement militarily post October 7th.

US stealth bombers strike underground Houthi weapons sites in Yemen (Reuters)

The United States said it carried out strikes on Wednesday against five underground weapons storage facilities in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, in a strike that used B-2 stealth bombers against the Iran-aligned group for the first time.

U.S. Indicts 2 Linked to Oct. 7 Cyberattack on Israeli Warning System

In February, the brothers shut down critical computer systems belonging to the Cedars-Sinai hospital in Los Angeles, causing emergency services to temporarily divert patients to other hospitals, according to the indictment. The brothers, who have been arrested and are in custody in an unspecified country, claimed at the time that the attack was in retaliation for Israel’s bombing of hospitals in Gaza.

“Bomb our hospitals in Gaza, we shut down yours too, eye for eye,” they wrote on Telegram.

Their actions were so damaging, and potentially life-threatening, that prosecutors have included one charge against Ahmed Omer that carries a maximum sentence of life in prison, the first time the United States has threatened a cybercriminal with such punishment.

As Israeli war on Hezbollah expands, rescuers in east reach their limit (Washington Post)

Hezbollah’s earliest training and organizing in Lebanon took place [in Bekaa Valley], in this rural, largely agricultural valley that runs along Lebanon’s border with Syria, and the area has remained a critical foothold for the organization. Hezbollah granted a Washington Post reporter and photographer access to the Bekaa Valley and required that a member of the group accompany the team during their trip. Interviews were conducted independently and Hezbollah did not review any of The Post’s reporting.

Israel has pummeled the region with hundreds of airstrikes over the past three weeks, targeting weapons stores, infrastructure and fighters. Thousands of civilians have fled west, while others have crossed into Syria. But unlike in southern Lebanon, where the Israeli military has told residents of specific villages to flee, no evacuation orders have been announced for towns and villages in this area, meaning the strikes come with little to no warning.

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Outside the Christian towns and villages of the Bekaa, which many here consider safe, much of the valley feels deserted. The region stretches across two administrative areas — Baalbek-Hermel and Bekaa — and is home to about a million people, according to United Nations figures.

“They have become like ghost cities,” said Bachir Khodr, governor of Baalbek-Hermel. In the past three weeks, Israel has launched more than 680 strikes on the Bekaa, he said, citing figures from local authorities. More than 260 people have been killed, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians.

Along the main road to Baalbek, which boasts beautifully preserved ruins of one of the largest temples in the Roman Empire, there were several places that appeared to have been targeted by strikes. Shops, homes and warehouses were destroyed. [...]

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The area also saw strikes during the last war between Israel and Hezbollah, in 2006, but the munitions the IDF is using now are larger and more devastating, Chekieh said.

“In 2006, only part of the building would collapse” in an airstrike, he said. “Now, the entire building is gone, collapsed on the ground,” and searching the wreckage from a single attack can take hours or days.

Lebanese Christians, caught in crossfire, refuse to leave war zone (Washington Post)

While much of southern Lebanon falls under the de facto control of Hezbollah, the ancient valleys here hold a scattering of towns and villages that are predominantly Christian, Druze or Sunni Muslim. None of them have rallied to support Hezbollah. Their neutrality largely protected them during the first 11 months of the conflict, but now the war is creeping quickly toward them.

While most residents have evacuated, people in some Christian towns — and their priests — are refusing to leave their homes again.

Their reasons are a kaleidoscope of defiance, resolve and generational trauma. Some say they can’t afford to relocate. Some believe their presence deters attacks on their lands. Some fear they won’t be able to return.

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But religion offers only thin protection. In Ebel El Saqi, six miles from Qlaaya, the Rev. Gregorius Salloum, a Greek orthodox priest, was mortally wounded in an Israeli airstrike in September. Christian villages that have largely evacuated, such an Ain Ebel, have also been hit hard.

Mass displacement under relentless airstrikes is testing Lebanon’s fragile sectarian balance. The Israeli air force has brought down entire buildings of displaced people in Christian areas to target single Hezbollah targets passing through the area, including in the north of the country.

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People here believed the conflict would escalate and stockpiled food. But they fear the coming winter and the security of fuel supplies, particularly if Israeli airstrikes continue cutting roads to and from the villages. If the fighting continues, it could become increasingly difficult to supply these villages with food and fuel, UNICEF spokeswoman Tess Ingram said.

The US is investigating an unauthorized release of classified documents on Israel’s attack plans (AP)

The United States is investigating an unauthorized release of classified documents that assess Israel’s plans to attack Iran, three U.S. officials told The Associated Press. A fourth U.S. official said the documents appear to be legitimate.

The documents are attributed to the U.S. Geospatial Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency, and note that Israel was still moving military assets in place to conduct a military strike in response to Iran’s blistering ballistic missile attack on Oct. 1. They were sharable within the “Five Eyes,” which are the U.S., Great Britain, Canada, New Zealand and Australia.

The documents, which are marked top secret, were posted to the Telegram messaging app and first reported by CNN and Axios. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.