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2020 Election News and Information (Week of October 25th)
A thread you can easily ignore
A new week a new thread
As the pace and the quantity of information that his coming out of the election increases. Instead of creating a new post for everything, or not posting things because it is a smaller item, please feel free to post here.
Feel free to break out any information posted here into its own thread if the discussion warrants it.
Major news can/should be broken out into its own topic. (use your own discretion)
Thank goodness this is almost over
Brett Kavanaugh Signals He’s Open to Stealing the Election for Trump
Direct link to the PDF of the SCOTUS order in question: https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20a66_b07d.pdf
Kavanaugh pretty clearly has caught the brainworms from watching too much Fox News:
He's worried that ballots coming in after election day may "flip the results". But...there are no results to be "flipped" until all the valid ballots are counted. Election day "results" are simply forecasts from the media based on exit polls & early returns.
Also showcases how Kavanaugh's "originalism" is complete bullshit and selectively applied. The founding fathers would have had absolutely zero expectation that the results of the election would be known on election night, or even the morning after. Technology at the time simply didn't allow it.
Originalism has always been selectively applied
Who else is preparing themselves for a Trump win, either via stacked courts and lawyers, or just an outright "surprise" win on election night? Apologies for the negative tone, but I've kind of lost so much faith in the United States' to actually elect proper leaders that I'm just assuming Trump will lose the popular vote and win the electoral college again.
And if Biden does win, I guess I'll be able to whisper a relieved "thank fuck" and move on with my day.
I'm bracing myself for it. I don't think he stands a chance of winning legitimately, but there has been a lot of ongoing maneuvering to lay the groundwork for tilting things in his favor. The Republican Party has clearly doubled down on exclusionary tactics, which has the self-defeating effect of limiting their voting base, so they've done a lot to try to do more with less votes. I hope their efforts are unsuccessful.
It was weeks ago that both Trump and Graham were saying they anticipated this election would be decided by the Supreme Court, which is a very odd thing to say in advance of an election, especially that far out. It makes Barrett's nomination rush all the more foreboding. Just what are they planning? Plus, I firmly believe that even in the event of Biden landslide, Trump will not concede. He's got a lot to lose, and, based on what we know about his character, I don't believe he's going to give it up for anything. I think things are about to get very ugly in America for a while.
I am well aware it is a possibility, but I almost won't allow myself to imagine it at this point. If it happens, it happens, and it's a bridge we'll cross then.
I am optimistic though. Biden's lead has been stronger and more stable than Hillary's ever was, and she just barely lost. Turnout will likely be at a record high, and while both parties are enthusiastic, I imagine it will help Biden more. Democrats have already turned in millions of early ballots, and Democrats requesting early ballots are far more likely to turn them in early or to drop them off at ballot collection points than are Republicans. This means that although Democrats are heavily voting by mail, it does not mean all of their ballots are in danger from whatever legal shenanigans the GOP tries to play. It also means that Democrats have a nice amount of guaranteed votes, safe from whatever unexpected things may happen on election day (virus surges, bad weather, etc).
This coupled with the strong results from the 2018 midterms makes me optimistic. I don't think Trump is a good politician, and while I believe he could steal this election I think that will only be doable if things are truly truly close. I don't think they will be. I hope I'm not being naive by being optimistic.
In a fucked-up way, Trump losing may be the one and only silver lining of the pandemic being this bad in the US.
In a parallel universe where covid never happened, or happened but was relatively minor and contained, I think it's totally plausible Trump could be cruising to re-election, or at least in a 50/50 tossup with Biden. And if Trump lost narrowly, they've clearly put the machinery in place to try to ratfuck the election, 2000-style.
Instead, the pandemic has exposed all the worst qualities of his presidency, in a way that can't be ignored or dismissed as fake news (though that certainly hasn't stopped them from trying). It's looking pretty likely that Biden may win in a ratfuck-proof landslide, which I don't think would be the case in that covid-free alternate reality.
I can understand being nervous about this, but this seems defeatist. It’s not like Trump always succeeds at what he sets out to do.
538 gives Biden an 86% chance to win Pennsylvania and most good pollsters are showing Biden up +6 or more. That's outside of the MOE.
I think that still adds up to uncertainty, not confidence that Trump will win.
This I am nervous for. The push for ACB and Kavanaugh's recent opinion scare me.
Biden Team Cancels Austin Event After Highway ‘Ambush’ by MAGA Cavalry
Thousands attend President Trump's rally in Omaha
It...did not go well. A selection of quotes from an unofficial Omaha police scanner on Twitter provides a horrifying liveblog. All times in local Omaha time.
Low temperature tonight in Omaha is 30 F / -1 C.
This was a hilarious take on this story: https://twitter.com/blaireerskine/status/1321394578952495105
Right-wing hoaxers Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman hit with felony charges in Cleveland tied to multi-state voter robocall campaign
It's amazing that they had not been charged with something before now.
Right, I more meant that it was amazing they hadn't been charged before this whole robo-call farce.
In Texas, early voters - mostly in person - have cast over 95% of the amount of total votes cast in 2016.
We are still five days away from the election.
That's how I interpret the labeling on that link as well. Which is pretty great. If Texas flips, that's pretty much game over for Trump.
Probably wouldn't hurt to document what the predictions are by day given we're only 8 days out now.
According to the 538 election forecast, at this time, Biden is favored to win the election 87% to Trump's 12%. (1% chance of a tie).
In more positive news: 62 Million And Counting: Americans Are Breaking Early Voting Records
Turnout overall is up, my favorite statistic is the change in early votes cast by "young" voters (18 - 29) in contrast to 2016. Here in Michigan, it has changed from 7,500 in 2016 to 145,000 and there is still a week to go.
Too early to tell I think. We probably won't know the answer to that question until next week when we see who shows up to vote in person.
More than 700 leading economists, including 7 Nobel winners, urge US voters to reject Trump, a 'selfish and reckless' president
The Open Letter
Unions discussing general strike if Trump refuses to accept Biden victory
60 minutes interview with Trump and Pence
Podcast from The Journal :
Inside One NBA Team's Decision to Turn It's Arena Into a Poll Site
Wed Oct 21 2020
15 minutes
Really good segment on how they utilized their experience in managing the logistics of huge crowds to setup a polling place that could accommodate thousands of voters and still take the necessary pandemic precautions. The most positive part to me was the mention that it's not only this team that's doing this, they're actually having a friendly competition with some other teams to see who gets the highest percentage voter turnout. And they expect to probably do this again in future elections.
The Trump ‘Jobs Boom’ Is a Convenient Myth
I thought this was a really good read: A conversation with Masha Gessen on how to prevent "autocratic breakthrough."
The far right has spent years preparing for this fight. I don't think we are prepared for this on the left.
Trafalgar Group on how they poll differently
This is that weird polling place that keeps showing Trump tied or leading in the swing states, this explains how they do polling 'differently'.
more in the article
My Resignation From The Intercept - Glenn Greenwald
twitter link
I respect Glenn Greenwald and have been following him since the Snowden leaks. While his world view and mine have not always aligned I respected his reporting and his fearlessness in the face of power. Also he can be a real prick. His reporting on the Brazilian political landscape, his home country, has been phenomenal. And this is a HUGE loss for The Intercept.
man, this is damning
if someone else believes this needs its own thread please post it, I am on the fence myself
Response from the remaining editors of the Intercept
Shots fired:
Reading between the lines, it sounded like he wanted to publish something related to the ongoing "Hunter Biden's laptop" hoax story, the other editors disagreed, and Greenwald threw a fit. It sounds like he believes that as one of the founders of the website he's entitled to publish stories without needing oversight / approval from the other founders.
With respect it sounds like that was in his contract. Which probably means it will lead to litigation.
Over the years anything that that disrupts the US hegemony I have come to question Glenn's motives. So it makes sense that he would throw a fit about this.
A response from Betsy Reed, Editor-in-Chief of The Intercept.
Twitter Link w/ a little color ;)
Note: if you follow Glenn Greenwald you can see a lot her critiques ringing true.
Trump Pulls Florida Ads as Cash-Poor Campaign Enters Final Week
Let this be true, but it could also mean he thinks he has FL in the bag, and shifting resources
Here's what Brett Kavanaugh said on CNN about Bush v. Gore in 2000
Basically, the supreme court can override state courts regarding state laws because only the supreme court knows what the original intent of the state legislature was...?
The radical implications of the Supreme Court’s new ruling on Wisconsin mail-in ballots
Sorry to keep harping on about this, but I think this is really big enough to become it's own post. The implications far exceed this election.
Why critics find Kavanaugh's Wisconsin mail-in voting opinion 'sloppy'
Three of the nine justices
willhave participated in litigation related to the only presidential contest to be decided by the high courtAgreed. I don't remember any of the current or previous justices making news in this fashion. Specifically, a commentary on current news events. The idea that justices are making anything even closely resembling a hasty decision is appalling. It's one thing to do deep research, and come to a conclusion I don't agree with. Then there can be a debate about the details. This opinion just reeks of pushing a personal agenda, influenced by the 24hr news media.
Hell, no Opinion piece written by a Texas conservative. Read into this what you will…
Ex-postal worker charged with tossing absentee ballots
From reddit: President Trump’s campaign website hacked
Spoiler, it was hacked for all of 5 minutes before they restored it. The script kiddies who achieved this posted a "warning" that they had hacked many devices, had much classified information, and posted two codes allowing people to "vote" on if they should release it or not (they're apparently Monero wallet IDs according to the very reliable reddit comments section). The hackers also claim to have proof that Trump is secretly behind the origin of COVID19. #eyeroll
WALMART PULLS GUNS, AMMO DISPLAYS IN U.S. STORES, CITING CIVIL UNREST - WSJtwitter
*JPMORGAN, GOLDMAN ORDER `CODE FREEZES': THE INFORMATION JPMorgan and Goldman will both halt software updates to the retail and investment banking systems their customers use to manage accounts
Walmart says they have made the decision to begin returning firearms and ammunition to the sales floor today
Well that was a roller coaster
twitter
Michigan Judge Blocks Ban On Open Carry Of Guns At Polls On Election Day
So seems like it's because they didn't follow the proper procedure? So..... try it again??