2020 Election News and Information (Week of October 25th)

Originalism has always been selectively applied

A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State...

I'm bracing myself for it. I don't think he stands a chance of winning legitimately, but there has been a lot of ongoing maneuvering to lay the groundwork for tilting things in his favor. The Republican Party has clearly doubled down on exclusionary tactics, which has the self-defeating effect of limiting their voting base, so they've done a lot to try to do more with less votes. I hope their efforts are unsuccessful.

It was weeks ago that both Trump and Graham were saying they anticipated this election would be decided by the Supreme Court, which is a very odd thing to say in advance of an election, especially that far out. It makes Barrett's nomination rush all the more foreboding. Just what are they planning? Plus, I firmly believe that even in the event of Biden landslide, Trump will not concede. He's got a lot to lose, and, based on what we know about his character, I don't believe he's going to give it up for anything. I think things are about to get very ugly in America for a while.

I am well aware it is a possibility, but I almost won't allow myself to imagine it at this point. If it happens, it happens, and it's a bridge we'll cross then.

I am optimistic though. Biden's lead has been stronger and more stable than Hillary's ever was, and she just barely lost. Turnout will likely be at a record high, and while both parties are enthusiastic, I imagine it will help Biden more. Democrats have already turned in millions of early ballots, and Democrats requesting early ballots are far more likely to turn them in early or to drop them off at ballot collection points than are Republicans. This means that although Democrats are heavily voting by mail, it does not mean all of their ballots are in danger from whatever legal shenanigans the GOP tries to play. It also means that Democrats have a nice amount of guaranteed votes, safe from whatever unexpected things may happen on election day (virus surges, bad weather, etc).

This coupled with the strong results from the 2018 midterms makes me optimistic. I don't think Trump is a good politician, and while I believe he could steal this election I think that will only be doable if things are truly truly close. I don't think they will be. I hope I'm not being naive by being optimistic.

This I am nervous for. The push for ACB and Kavanaugh's recent opinion scare me.

This was a hilarious take on this story: https://twitter.com/blaireerskine/status/1321394578952495105

It's amazing that they had not been charged with something before now.

The radical implications of the Supreme Court’s new ruling on Wisconsin mail-in ballots

For more than a century, the Supreme Court has understood the word “legislature,” as it is used in the relevant constitutional provisions, to refer to whatever the valid lawmaking process is within that state. As the Court held most recently in Arizona State Legislature v. Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (2015), the word “legislature” should be read “in accordance with the State’s prescriptions for lawmaking, which may include the referendum and the Governor’s veto.”

But Gorsuch’s opinion suggests that this longstanding rule may soon be gone (again, as he put it, “state legislatures — not federal judges, not state judges, not state governors, not other state officials — bear primary responsibility for setting election rules”). State supreme courts may lose their power to enforce state constitutions that protect voting rights. State governors may lose their power to veto election laws, which would be a truly astonishing development when you consider that every state needs to draw new legislative maps in 2021, and many states have Republican legislatures and Democratic governors.