The Guardian live update thread

CNN live update thread

The Guardian exit polling

• The CDU and SPD are tied, although it seems the SPD is for now leading by a slim margin

• The 3 left-of-center parties have a minority of seats together, meaning they couldn't form a government together if they wanted to

• Die Linke is close to the electoral cut-off of entering parliament, and risks getting nothing this election (it appears this is not the case because Linke usually win more than 3 constituency seats, which invalidates the 5% threshold.)

• The AfD and the FDP seem to be likely to get the same amount of votes that got in 2017

• The Greens and SPD have grown by similar margins (but the current polling rise is the SPD's polling rise)

How do you feel about the election as it stands? Also include any more live updates if you know of them.

CBC Coverage - CBC Poll Tracker

Elections Canada

CTV (live updates)

Edit: CBC have projected a Liberal win.

Seat Changes (Projected):

Liberal: +1
Conservative: –2
Bloc Québécois: +2
New Democrat: +1
Green: –1
People's Party: 0
Other: –1

Text post because the big news companies are cowards playing it safe and not calling Ossof yet, though it's basically over

Warnock makes history with Senate win as Dems near majority (AP News)

My takes below:

What does this mean?

This gives Democrats a thin majority in the senate. Does it mean they have free reign? No, the party is not that unified. In particular, as you probably have heard his name many many times now, Manchin, the "conservative Democrat" from WV is likely to be the kingmaker in votes. So it's not like just anything can get passed, and Manchin will not eliminate the filibuster easily.

So is it pointless?

ABSOLUTELY NOT

It's a huge victory nonetheless for Democrats. Remember, with control of the Senate, Chuck Schumer will be Senate Majority Leader, who controls what legislation the senate votes on. Even bipartisan bills were consistently torpedoed by McConnell who would refuse to even have a vote on it. Now, there is politics that can be done - deals, compromise, whatever. If you can't vote on something, nothing can be done. Things that are overall popular like increased stimulus are also going to pass.

Additionally, perhaps an even bigger deal, Biden can get his nominations through for cabinet and judges. There's an insane amount of unfilled heads of state departments right now, and the rest are filled with people absolutely unfit for the job. Having a real human being be the head of the EPA, or Department of Education, or the Department of Energy, and so forth is a big deal.

It also means that Justice Breyer can safely retire and have another "liberal" Justice take his place.

It's not sweeping control over the government, but it's a immensely superior political situation to McConnell stone walling anything he doesn't want, and Biden having to haggle with McConnell over how incompetent his cabinet needs to be.