National polling is not useful. Here's some swing state polling as of a few days ago: https://x.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1811097379732607076, it's not looking great...
Exactly this, Biden needs to be up by 3-4% in national polls to be in a 50-50 spot in the swing states as they are 3-4 points to the right of the country at large. Hillary won the national popular...
Exactly this, Biden needs to be up by 3-4% in national polls to be in a 50-50 spot in the swing states as they are 3-4 points to the right of the country at large.
Hillary won the national popular vote in 2016 but (sadly) that’s not the game we’re playing.
Yea, people are in denial here I think because they mistakenly believe it’s still a coin flip election. Trump was already favoured before the debate, it’s even worse now. The question becomes do...
Yea, people are in denial here I think because they mistakenly believe it’s still a coin flip election. Trump was already favoured before the debate, it’s even worse now.
The question becomes do you think Biden is capable of fighting his way back over the next four months? Nothing in his last two interviews makes me think he is, especially when he’s probably going to shoot himself in the foot several more times in a very hostile media environment.
Does a new person who hasn't had a chance to raise any money and hasn't had a chance to get their name out have enough time to fight their way over the next four months? Add in that they are...
Does a new person who hasn't had a chance to raise any money and hasn't had a chance to get their name out have enough time to fight their way over the next four months? Add in that they are replacing an incumbant and doing so late in the race which already is a minus for them getting traction (it has almost never to never done well when you do either). I'd say changing now is a surefire way to give a win to Trump. Like it or not, Biden at this point is our best option even if he is not a good option.
Harris would have access to the Biden war chest, has already been elected nationally on the same ticket as Biden by 80 million voters, and as the VP is the naturally legitimate successor if Biden...
Harris would have access to the Biden war chest, has already been elected nationally on the same ticket as Biden by 80 million voters, and as the VP is the naturally legitimate successor if Biden drops out. She'd also eliminate the largest weakness with Biden (age) and turn that criticism squarely back on Trump.
It's because of her own past electoral weakness. She did abysmally in the last primaries. That said... she's also about the only possible option at this point. One idea I've seen floated is the...
It's because of her own past electoral weakness. She did abysmally in the last primaries. That said... she's also about the only possible option at this point.
One idea I've seen floated is the idea of a "mini primary" where you get a half dozen top contenders to do a couple of nights of focused debates before the Convention. There's a good chance she still emerges from it with the nod, but with the wind of recent victory at her back. It would also make for prime dramatic TV and bring the winner in to public focus in a starker way than just naming someone.
If she's the only one with the campaign fund, I don't think that's the reason. Especially when people have tossed out random Senators no one knows much about as alternative. And yes I'm saying...
It's because of her own past electoral weakness. She did abysmally in the last primaries. That said... she's also about the only possible option at this point.
One idea I've seen floated is the idea of a "mini primary" where you get a half dozen top contenders to do a couple of nights of focused debates before the Convention. There's a good chance she still emerges from it with the nod, but with the wind of recent victory at her back. It would also make for prime dramatic TV and bring the winner in to public focus in a starker way than just naming someone.
If she's the only one with the campaign fund, I don't think that's the reason. Especially when people have tossed out random Senators no one knows much about as alternative. And yes I'm saying it's sexist and racist or at *best" it's knowing that the response to her would be sexist and racist.
And if Texas refuses to put the winner of the "mini primary" (as if the entire country is going to vote? As if someone won't use over a "rigged" contested convention? ) on the ballot? And then claiming it's a stolen election.
The campaign fund could be used as a PAC for any other candidate if they wanted to. For an argument that's not sexist or racist, some people don't like that she's a former prosecutor from San...
If she's the only one with the campaign fund, I don't think that's the reason.
The campaign fund could be used as a PAC for any other candidate if they wanted to.
For an argument that's not sexist or racist, some people don't like that she's a former prosecutor from San Francisco, and I think that's completely fair. Many ACAB people have valid beef with her background.
I am aware of her history. I don't think that erased the sexism and racism inherent, particularly from folks suggesting multiple white men, some of whom have equally undesirable traits...
I am aware of her history. I don't think that erased the sexism and racism inherent, particularly from folks suggesting multiple white men, some of whom have equally undesirable traits (billionaire, centrist, absolutely unqualified and inexperienced).
Also, despite being in a lot of leftist online spaces I only see "ACAB" applied to prosecutors when people discuss Harris.
I am not a Harris fan girl. I just don't think it should be left unsaid that racism and sexism are involved here and it's a giant neon sign level of obvious to the people that share those identities.
Maybe we swim in different circles then. I've pretty regularly seen prosecutors maligned by ACAB lefties in liberal cities with conservative prosecutors. Though, I agree with your broad point. I'm...
Maybe we swim in different circles then. I've pretty regularly seen prosecutors maligned by ACAB lefties in liberal cities with conservative prosecutors.
Though, I agree with your broad point. I'm personally in favour of Harris replacing Biden, even though I like some Midwestern Dems more (for purely ideological reasons). If Biden steps aside and Harris doesn't take over, it makes it crystal clear she was just a token VP picked purely on identity politics.
To clarify, I've seen plenty of criticism, but not the term directed at prosecutors or past prosecutors. And I wouldn't just say she was a token VP choice in that scenario, I'm saying that the...
To clarify, I've seen plenty of criticism, but not the term directed at prosecutors or past prosecutors.
And I wouldn't just say she was a token VP choice in that scenario, I'm saying that the present conversation now is racist and sexist. And I'm being precise about that not because I think there's at a minimum implicit bias going on.
The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.
The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.
It makes sense. I know there's been talk about the mythics of the swing voter, and it occurs to me, and am curious if anybody paying closer attention knows the answer....has there been studies...
It makes sense. I know there's been talk about the mythics of the swing voter, and it occurs to me, and am curious if anybody paying closer attention knows the answer....has there been studies that see how inter-state migration affects election outcomes in swing states?
My hypothesis is that the three main factors in determining election outcomes are:
Rallying the base (Which Trump is disturbingly good at, both for and against)
Electorate varying due to migration between states.
Old people dying off/young people coming of age.
So my blind bet: Florida is going red for at minimum of the next 5 presidential election cycles courtesy of the Reagan-worshiping Boomers moving there for retirement.
National polling is not useful.
Here's some swing state polling as of a few days ago: https://x.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1811097379732607076, it's not looking great...
Exactly this, Biden needs to be up by 3-4% in national polls to be in a 50-50 spot in the swing states as they are 3-4 points to the right of the country at large.
Hillary won the national popular vote in 2016 but (sadly) that’s not the game we’re playing.
Yea, people are in denial here I think because they mistakenly believe it’s still a coin flip election. Trump was already favoured before the debate, it’s even worse now.
The question becomes do you think Biden is capable of fighting his way back over the next four months? Nothing in his last two interviews makes me think he is, especially when he’s probably going to shoot himself in the foot several more times in a very hostile media environment.
Does a new person who hasn't had a chance to raise any money and hasn't had a chance to get their name out have enough time to fight their way over the next four months? Add in that they are replacing an incumbant and doing so late in the race which already is a minus for them getting traction (it has almost never to never done well when you do either). I'd say changing now is a surefire way to give a win to Trump. Like it or not, Biden at this point is our best option even if he is not a good option.
Harris would have access to the Biden war chest, has already been elected nationally on the same ticket as Biden by 80 million voters, and as the VP is the naturally legitimate successor if Biden drops out. She'd also eliminate the largest weakness with Biden (age) and turn that criticism squarely back on Trump.
It's odd that she's not the first name everyone suggests, isn't it.
It's because of her own past electoral weakness. She did abysmally in the last primaries. That said... she's also about the only possible option at this point.
One idea I've seen floated is the idea of a "mini primary" where you get a half dozen top contenders to do a couple of nights of focused debates before the Convention. There's a good chance she still emerges from it with the nod, but with the wind of recent victory at her back. It would also make for prime dramatic TV and bring the winner in to public focus in a starker way than just naming someone.
If she's the only one with the campaign fund, I don't think that's the reason. Especially when people have tossed out random Senators no one knows much about as alternative. And yes I'm saying it's sexist and racist or at *best" it's knowing that the response to her would be sexist and racist.
And if Texas refuses to put the winner of the "mini primary" (as if the entire country is going to vote? As if someone won't use over a "rigged" contested convention? ) on the ballot? And then claiming it's a stolen election.
I don't see any way it's actually feasible.
The campaign fund could be used as a PAC for any other candidate if they wanted to.
For an argument that's not sexist or racist, some people don't like that she's a former prosecutor from San Francisco, and I think that's completely fair. Many ACAB people have valid beef with her background.
I am aware of her history. I don't think that erased the sexism and racism inherent, particularly from folks suggesting multiple white men, some of whom have equally undesirable traits (billionaire, centrist, absolutely unqualified and inexperienced).
Also, despite being in a lot of leftist online spaces I only see "ACAB" applied to prosecutors when people discuss Harris.
I am not a Harris fan girl. I just don't think it should be left unsaid that racism and sexism are involved here and it's a giant neon sign level of obvious to the people that share those identities.
Maybe we swim in different circles then. I've pretty regularly seen prosecutors maligned by ACAB lefties in liberal cities with conservative prosecutors.
Though, I agree with your broad point. I'm personally in favour of Harris replacing Biden, even though I like some Midwestern Dems more (for purely ideological reasons). If Biden steps aside and Harris doesn't take over, it makes it crystal clear she was just a token VP picked purely on identity politics.
To clarify, I've seen plenty of criticism, but not the term directed at prosecutors or past prosecutors.
And I wouldn't just say she was a token VP choice in that scenario, I'm saying that the present conversation now is racist and sexist. And I'm being precise about that not because I think there's at a minimum implicit bias going on.
This 100 times. No one should give a shit what the national race is looking like. Are we ahead in PA yet? No? We'll lose then.
The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.
It makes sense. I know there's been talk about the mythics of the swing voter, and it occurs to me, and am curious if anybody paying closer attention knows the answer....has there been studies that see how inter-state migration affects election outcomes in swing states?
My hypothesis is that the three main factors in determining election outcomes are:
So my blind bet: Florida is going red for at minimum of the next 5 presidential election cycles courtesy of the Reagan-worshiping Boomers moving there for retirement.
imo at this point "swing voter" really means that they're unlikely to vote at all, but could possibly be persuaded to given the correct incentive