I think this is a really weird thing people keep saying without thinking it through A solar panel sits in a field, in your country, and generates power. With gas you have to continually keep...
I think this is a really weird thing people keep saying without thinking it through
European consumers have already paid a heavy price through higher energy bills after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed the EU’s over-reliance on Russian gas, and EU officials are determined not to repeat the mistake with China, pursuing an official “de-risk” strategy.
A solar panel sits in a field, in your country, and generates power. With gas you have to continually keep importing it. It's really unclear how this creates risky dependency on China, and it's really weird that people keep trying to create a false equivalence between EVs, solar panels, heat pumps and LNG.
edit: we also need these things now and not in 10 years to tackle climate change, and given that China seems to be much more technologically sophisticated than the EU it seems dangerous to gamble that the EU is even capable establishing a process to manufacture solar panels as effectively as China, let alone quickly.
Solar panels have a limited lifespan of 20~40 years, so they'll need to be continuously replaced. If the EU were to depend on solar power, and China decides to stop supplying solar panels and...
Solar panels have a limited lifespan of 20~40 years, so they'll need to be continuously replaced. If the EU were to depend on solar power, and China decides to stop supplying solar panels and there is no non-Chinese source (because China will have crushed them all through competition), then the EU will be left scrambling trying to replace their solar panels — and scaling up a domestic industry from scratch to meet that volume of demand will be difficult.
Huh. That got me curious, and turns out China is a major producer of solar panels for the whole world. At least back in 2021, 7 of the top 10 manufacturers were based in China with none in the EU....
Huh. That got me curious, and turns out China is a major producer of solar panels for the whole world. At least back in 2021, 7 of the top 10 manufacturers were based in China with none in the EU. Then when you look at the base components, namely polysilicon, a large portion is still produced in China.
It's always a concern to have production of any critical thing largely restricted to one country, it's an international monopoly. The rest of the world becomes dependent on that country playing fair and not abusing the lack of competition. Better to address it now than wait for the dependence to reach a point where China can use it as a threat.
As always with things in life, it's complicated. There's no one, massive majority, reason for panel failure that drives that 20-30 year warranty period. Page 28 of this report from the...
As always with things in life, it's complicated. There's no one, massive majority, reason for panel failure that drives that 20-30 year warranty period.
To answer your question, I think they're all talking about mechanical, chemical, or structural failures that dramatically lower output or totally thrash the entire panel. Dealing with the expense of poisonous e-waste processing and re-installation is not something a solar farm wants to deal with to fix a 10% loss in efficiency as part of non-traumatic aging.
Pushing the problem 20-40 years down the road is a much better solution that continuing to import gas from Russia. The world could be a totally different place in 20-40 years, China may not be the...
Pushing the problem 20-40 years down the road is a much better solution that continuing to import gas from Russia. The world could be a totally different place in 20-40 years, China may not be the only supplier of solar.
The thing is that an industry isn't a static creature. In 20 years China might not be the dominant player in the solar market, but they'll have had 20 more years of R&D work and subsidized...
The thing is that an industry isn't a static creature. In 20 years China might not be the dominant player in the solar market, but they'll have had 20 more years of R&D work and subsidized manufacturing to consolidate their position. If a country doesn't think that they're going to want to depend on another country 20 years from now it makes sense to start working to develop alternatives now.
Yes, that's my point. Better to invest in solar now and start thinking about the future than keep crying about Russia but still buying natural gas at insane prices
Yes, that's my point. Better to invest in solar now and start thinking about the future than keep crying about Russia but still buying natural gas at insane prices
First I think there's some irony in the EU now basically saying "it's unfair to expect European countries to be competitive on the market" given that for years they have maintained that...
First I think there's some irony in the EU now basically saying "it's unfair to expect European countries to be competitive on the market" given that for years they have maintained that competition is good and forced developing countries to open up their markets to EU producers. I think the basic problem the EU has is that when it comes to technology and manufacturing it's unable to compete and hasn't been willing to take the risks that Chinese manufacturers have. Note that it's not just that Chinese solar panels are cheaper it's also that they're much higher quality, and therefore it's much more effective to install a Chinese solar panel than a European one.
scaling up a domestic industry from scratch to meet that volume of demand will be difficult
I actually don't think this is true. First I think it's extremely unlikely China will stop selling solar panels given the sheer scale of their overcapacity (they literally have enough capacity to make every solar panel that will ever be needed) – if they stop selling them it will cause massive economic damage to China. Even if, I think this is the correct gamble – the odds that China stops selling solar panels are really low and in that case it's definitely possible to find other sources or start making them at home, and we don't incur lots of costs that are kind of "wasted" in the case where we continue to buy from China.
It's not about China stopping the sale of solar panels, in the case of Russian gas the risk was never that Russia would stop the sale of it. The problem is that when you are dependent on a country...
It's not about China stopping the sale of solar panels, in the case of Russian gas the risk was never that Russia would stop the sale of it. The problem is that when you are dependent on a country for any critical industry, and energy security is one of the most critical things for a nation, then you are in some ways beholden to that country. In the Russian case the conflict came when it was time to try to stop the invasion of Ukraine, Russia dangled the gas supply over Europe's head in an attempt to stop EU nations from taking a strong position against them. When a nation is overly dependent on another, the threat of coercion is always a possibility. Back to China, the question isn't if China decided to stop selling solar panels, which they most definitely could in a geopolitical crisis, but could Europe continue to buy them if, for example, China invaded Taiwan.
We already saw this play out during the Corona crisis with China hoarding medical supplies that were almost exclusively produced in their country. No slight against China either, since it's only rational that they would slow exports as their own consumption skyrocketed but a lot of countries learned their lesson that overreliance on any one country, particularly potential adversaries, is a security risk. Energy sector, medical, automotive, information technology, etc. all of those are considered critical national industries that require protection. The West got high on cheap Chinese production and let it get away from them, now it seems like the lesson is learned and being corrected.
China will still be happy to sell them in this case. I also think there's an element of massive egoism in believing that the EU is somehow relevant or even a player in conflict over Taiwan. I...
Back to China, the question isn't if China decided to stop selling solar panels, which they most definitely could in a geopolitical crisis, but could Europe continue to buy them if, for example, China invaded Taiwan.
China will still be happy to sell them in this case. I also think there's an element of massive egoism in believing that the EU is somehow relevant or even a player in conflict over Taiwan. I really doubt China cares about how the EU decides to respond militarily, given that the EU is currently struggling to give weapons to Ukraine, an issue which is actually of existential significance for eastern Europe.
We already saw this play out during the Corona crisis with China hoarding medical supplies that were almost exclusively produced in their country.
But China has a massive supply of solar pannels – far too many for domestic demand to satisfy!!! Why would they stop selling them!?!!? They're totally incomparable to medical supplies!
China wouldn't stop selling them, they'd just talk about significant tariffs on them when they needed some leverage on the EU on some other issue. And if the EU didn't have other options for their...
China wouldn't stop selling them, they'd just talk about significant tariffs on them when they needed some leverage on the EU on some other issue. And if the EU didn't have other options for their energy infrastructure, how much could they stand up to China's requests?
But why would China put tarrifs on its own exports when it has such incredible overcapacity and is really unwilling to increase domestic consumption? The Chinese government really wants its...
But why would China put tarrifs on its own exports when it has such incredible overcapacity and is really unwilling to increase domestic consumption? The Chinese government really wants its economy to not fail.
If threatening such tariffs got them other concessions. Maybe they want to buy a share of ownership of a major port. Maybe they want for the EU to stop tariffs on something else. Maybe they want...
If threatening such tariffs got them other concessions. Maybe they want to buy a share of ownership of a major port. Maybe they want for the EU to stop tariffs on something else. Maybe they want the EU to not condemn one of their genocide or human rights abuses. The specific action isn't the point. It just means they have another soft power chip to play. This isn't unique to China. Every nation plays this game.
Ability to produce matters. Actually, it is what wins wars. At the beginning of the Cold War 2, we find ourselves in a vulnerable position. China could outproduce us. This is why it is wise to...
It's really unclear how this creates risky dependency on China [...]
Ability to produce matters. Actually, it is what wins wars. At the beginning of the Cold War 2, we find ourselves in a vulnerable position. China could outproduce us. This is why it is wise to protect our production capacity because when you outsource everything including strategic things to someone who starts acting hostile, you can't just spin production out of thin air. You need to have factories, skilled workers, knowledge base etc.
This is a very simplified entry to this topic - if you want to learn more, Sizing up the New Axis by Noahpinion is a good start.
BTW, some people believe that China is hollowing out our production capacity intentionally, in preparation for the World War 3. I don't know what to think about this, but I think this is one of those things where it is better to err on the side of caution.
It is an unfortunate way of wording things, but I think the equivalence is being linked between the EU risking undermining its own vehicle industry with importing tons of cheaper foreign-made cars...
It is an unfortunate way of wording things, but I think the equivalence is being linked between the EU risking undermining its own vehicle industry with importing tons of cheaper foreign-made cars (and EVs) and when the EU undermined its own energy security by relying so heavily on petroleum energy products from Russia. But really, it shouldn't be a surprised that the EU is taking a protectionist stance of not only German car makers, but also French, Italian, and Scandinavian companies.
What's puzzling is why Sweden and the EU allowed for a majority stake (I think it's 80%) to be taken in Volvo in the first place. Geely has been shopping around the new Volvo EX30 SUV EV to influencers to show what a great deal it is ($36K before additional tariffs and ~440km of range for the base model) and generally people are really impressed. That makes it dangerous to indigenous-made vehicles. I'm not sure, but I think the EX30 is going to be one of the first really good Chinese-made cars to reach Europe and the US, but the 100% tariffs should apply before it's actually released, which will make it cost nearly as much as, or more than, European-made/US-made models or equivalents. (I own an XC40 Pure Electric, which is slightly larger.)
That said, 2026 or so is when EV manufacture in the US is really going to take off. Even though some companies are scaling back expectations and they're not "rushing" like they were two years ago, BMW, VW, and Toyota will be starting battery production by then. The LG and Honda partnership just completed their building this year and production should start in 2025. Also, the battery technology is still largely on pace to have a good leap in both density and weight by then, but it remains to be seen how manufacturers will package and distribute those battery packs (BMW tends to start with their highest-priced cars for new tech, for example).
Maybe fire up those manufacturers again, or invest in some non Chinese partners such as India. The point is don't get caught copying China's homework again.
Maybe fire up those manufacturers again, or invest in some non Chinese partners such as India. The point is don't get caught copying China's homework again.
I think this is a really weird thing people keep saying without thinking it through
A solar panel sits in a field, in your country, and generates power. With gas you have to continually keep importing it. It's really unclear how this creates risky dependency on China, and it's really weird that people keep trying to create a false equivalence between EVs, solar panels, heat pumps and LNG.
edit: we also need these things now and not in 10 years to tackle climate change, and given that China seems to be much more technologically sophisticated than the EU it seems dangerous to gamble that the EU is even capable establishing a process to manufacture solar panels as effectively as China, let alone quickly.
Solar panels have a limited lifespan of 20~40 years, so they'll need to be continuously replaced. If the EU were to depend on solar power, and China decides to stop supplying solar panels and there is no non-Chinese source (because China will have crushed them all through competition), then the EU will be left scrambling trying to replace their solar panels — and scaling up a domestic industry from scratch to meet that volume of demand will be difficult.
Huh. That got me curious, and turns out China is a major producer of solar panels for the whole world. At least back in 2021, 7 of the top 10 manufacturers were based in China with none in the EU. Then when you look at the base components, namely polysilicon, a large portion is still produced in China.
It's always a concern to have production of any critical thing largely restricted to one country, it's an international monopoly. The rest of the world becomes dependent on that country playing fair and not abusing the lack of competition. Better to address it now than wait for the dependence to reach a point where China can use it as a threat.
How is that lifespan defined? Are they expected to be useless after 20-40 years, or just less efficient?
As always with things in life, it's complicated. There's no one, massive majority, reason for panel failure that drives that 20-30 year warranty period.
Page 28 of this report from the "International Renewable Energy Agency" has a pretty good breakdown in pie chart and list form: End-of-life management: Solar Photovoltaic Panels (PDF Link)
Here's the chart itself if you don't want to slog through the source.
To answer your question, I think they're all talking about mechanical, chemical, or structural failures that dramatically lower output or totally thrash the entire panel. Dealing with the expense of poisonous e-waste processing and re-installation is not something a solar farm wants to deal with to fix a 10% loss in efficiency as part of non-traumatic aging.
Pushing the problem 20-40 years down the road is a much better solution that continuing to import gas from Russia. The world could be a totally different place in 20-40 years, China may not be the only supplier of solar.
The thing is that an industry isn't a static creature. In 20 years China might not be the dominant player in the solar market, but they'll have had 20 more years of R&D work and subsidized manufacturing to consolidate their position. If a country doesn't think that they're going to want to depend on another country 20 years from now it makes sense to start working to develop alternatives now.
Yes, that's my point. Better to invest in solar now and start thinking about the future than keep crying about Russia but still buying natural gas at insane prices
First I think there's some irony in the EU now basically saying "it's unfair to expect European countries to be competitive on the market" given that for years they have maintained that competition is good and forced developing countries to open up their markets to EU producers. I think the basic problem the EU has is that when it comes to technology and manufacturing it's unable to compete and hasn't been willing to take the risks that Chinese manufacturers have. Note that it's not just that Chinese solar panels are cheaper it's also that they're much higher quality, and therefore it's much more effective to install a Chinese solar panel than a European one.
I actually don't think this is true. First I think it's extremely unlikely China will stop selling solar panels given the sheer scale of their overcapacity (they literally have enough capacity to make every solar panel that will ever be needed) – if they stop selling them it will cause massive economic damage to China. Even if, I think this is the correct gamble – the odds that China stops selling solar panels are really low and in that case it's definitely possible to find other sources or start making them at home, and we don't incur lots of costs that are kind of "wasted" in the case where we continue to buy from China.
It's not about China stopping the sale of solar panels, in the case of Russian gas the risk was never that Russia would stop the sale of it. The problem is that when you are dependent on a country for any critical industry, and energy security is one of the most critical things for a nation, then you are in some ways beholden to that country. In the Russian case the conflict came when it was time to try to stop the invasion of Ukraine, Russia dangled the gas supply over Europe's head in an attempt to stop EU nations from taking a strong position against them. When a nation is overly dependent on another, the threat of coercion is always a possibility. Back to China, the question isn't if China decided to stop selling solar panels, which they most definitely could in a geopolitical crisis, but could Europe continue to buy them if, for example, China invaded Taiwan.
We already saw this play out during the Corona crisis with China hoarding medical supplies that were almost exclusively produced in their country. No slight against China either, since it's only rational that they would slow exports as their own consumption skyrocketed but a lot of countries learned their lesson that overreliance on any one country, particularly potential adversaries, is a security risk. Energy sector, medical, automotive, information technology, etc. all of those are considered critical national industries that require protection. The West got high on cheap Chinese production and let it get away from them, now it seems like the lesson is learned and being corrected.
China will still be happy to sell them in this case. I also think there's an element of massive egoism in believing that the EU is somehow relevant or even a player in conflict over Taiwan. I really doubt China cares about how the EU decides to respond militarily, given that the EU is currently struggling to give weapons to Ukraine, an issue which is actually of existential significance for eastern Europe.
But China has a massive supply of solar pannels – far too many for domestic demand to satisfy!!! Why would they stop selling them!?!!? They're totally incomparable to medical supplies!
China wouldn't stop selling them, they'd just talk about significant tariffs on them when they needed some leverage on the EU on some other issue. And if the EU didn't have other options for their energy infrastructure, how much could they stand up to China's requests?
But why would China put tarrifs on its own exports when it has such incredible overcapacity and is really unwilling to increase domestic consumption? The Chinese government really wants its economy to not fail.
If threatening such tariffs got them other concessions. Maybe they want to buy a share of ownership of a major port. Maybe they want for the EU to stop tariffs on something else. Maybe they want the EU to not condemn one of their genocide or human rights abuses. The specific action isn't the point. It just means they have another soft power chip to play. This isn't unique to China. Every nation plays this game.
Ability to produce matters. Actually, it is what wins wars. At the beginning of the Cold War 2, we find ourselves in a vulnerable position. China could outproduce us. This is why it is wise to protect our production capacity because when you outsource everything including strategic things to someone who starts acting hostile, you can't just spin production out of thin air. You need to have factories, skilled workers, knowledge base etc.
This is a very simplified entry to this topic - if you want to learn more, Sizing up the New Axis by Noahpinion is a good start.
BTW, some people believe that China is hollowing out our production capacity intentionally, in preparation for the World War 3. I don't know what to think about this, but I think this is one of those things where it is better to err on the side of caution.
It is an unfortunate way of wording things, but I think the equivalence is being linked between the EU risking undermining its own vehicle industry with importing tons of cheaper foreign-made cars (and EVs) and when the EU undermined its own energy security by relying so heavily on petroleum energy products from Russia. But really, it shouldn't be a surprised that the EU is taking a protectionist stance of not only German car makers, but also French, Italian, and Scandinavian companies.
What's puzzling is why Sweden and the EU allowed for a majority stake (I think it's 80%) to be taken in Volvo in the first place. Geely has been shopping around the new Volvo EX30 SUV EV to influencers to show what a great deal it is ($36K before additional tariffs and ~440km of range for the base model) and generally people are really impressed. That makes it dangerous to indigenous-made vehicles. I'm not sure, but I think the EX30 is going to be one of the first really good Chinese-made cars to reach Europe and the US, but the 100% tariffs should apply before it's actually released, which will make it cost nearly as much as, or more than, European-made/US-made models or equivalents. (I own an XC40 Pure Electric, which is slightly larger.)
Interesting, the Volvo EX90 SUV EV was delayed a couple years and is just now starting production in the US, and soon in Mexico. Fortunately, to help consumers make informed decisions, they have a program that let's people know where their batteries are coming from (which is sorta jingoist, but what are you gonna do).
That said, 2026 or so is when EV manufacture in the US is really going to take off. Even though some companies are scaling back expectations and they're not "rushing" like they were two years ago, BMW, VW, and Toyota will be starting battery production by then. The LG and Honda partnership just completed their building this year and production should start in 2025. Also, the battery technology is still largely on pace to have a good leap in both density and weight by then, but it remains to be seen how manufacturers will package and distribute those battery packs (BMW tends to start with their highest-priced cars for new tech, for example).
Maybe fire up those manufacturers again, or invest in some non Chinese partners such as India. The point is don't get caught copying China's homework again.