burkaman's recent activity
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Comment on DarkBERT: A language model for the dark side of the internet in ~tech
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Comment on Anyone here in or familiar with Denver and the surrounding area? Going on a trip and have zero idea what to do as a non-tourist... in ~hobbies
burkaman Link ParentThis is a great time to go to RMNP. The weather is usually pretty nice, but timed entry permits don't start until May 26th, so you can go without much planning. Once timed entry starts it will be...This is a great time to go to RMNP. The weather is usually pretty nice, but timed entry permits don't start until May 26th, so you can go without much planning. Once timed entry starts it will be pretty difficult to get into the Bear Lake part of the park.
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Comment on This free TV comes with two screens - Would you give up your data in exchange for a free TV? in ~tech
burkaman Link ParentJailbreaking it is not a good idea, they have your credit card and will charge it if you do anything. https://www.freetelly.com/terms-of-service I think the most you could get away with is taping...Jailbreaking it is not a good idea, they have your credit card and will charge it if you do anything.
The Product requires an Internet and Wi-Fi connections from third-party providers in order to be functional. Your Internet connection or data plan is subject to the fees, restrictions, terms and limitations imposed by your provider. In order to use the Product and Services, You will:
(a) Use the Product as the primary television in Your household;
(b) Keep the Product connected to WiFi and internet; and
(c) Not use any software on Your WiFi network that with advertising blocking capability.
(d) Not make physical modifications to the Product or attach peripheral devices to the Product not expressly approved by Telly. Any attempt to open the Product’s enclosure will be deemed an unauthorized modification.
If we discover that You are not abiding by the requirements above or have disconnected the Product from an internet connection or WiFi for more than short periods each month, You will no longer be able to use the Service and You must return any Products in your possession to Telly. Failure to return Products to Telly will result in Telly charging the credit card on file. If you do abide by the Terms of Service, your credit card will not be charged.
I think the most you could get away with is taping a piece of cardboard over the ad spot, but then you're still letting it film you and sell your precise watching habits to anyone who wants the data.
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Comment on Ancient Pompeii site installs 'invisible' solar panels that look like Roman terracotta tiles in ~enviro
burkaman LinkThis was on HN a while ago, and the consensus was that these are roughly half as efficient as normal modern solar panels, because they have to block a lot of light to look good. Still incredibly...This was on HN a while ago, and the consensus was that these are roughly half as efficient as normal modern solar panels, because they have to block a lot of light to look good. Still incredibly cool and worth it when you don't have the option of putting black panels on the roof.
11% efficiency according to this lab, compared to 22+% for the best commonly available panels.
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Comment on My first electric road trip into rural Colorado in ~talk
burkaman Link ParentThis is a really interesting idea. I don't think there are any portable land turbines, but there is such a thing as airborne wind power. Here's a kite-based system that fits in a backpack and...This is a really interesting idea. I don't think there are any portable land turbines, but there is such a thing as airborne wind power. Here's a kite-based system that fits in a backpack and allegedly provides up to 400W in high winds: https://kitewinder.fr/
With a few of those and some good wind, maybe you could actually charge a noticeable amount overnight? And this one is quite small, a number of other companies are working on utility-scale solutions, like this 100kW kite: https://thekitepower.com/. Maybe there's something in the middle that could fit in the back of a truck and still give you like 1kW or something.
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Comment on My first electric road trip into rural Colorado in ~talk
burkaman (edited )Link ParentI think the first article you linked is unnecessarily pessimistic, and a little misleading. It's talking about "lithium reserves" as if that's a static number that will only be depleted, but in...I think the first article you linked is unnecessarily pessimistic, and a little misleading. It's talking about "lithium reserves" as if that's a static number that will only be depleted, but in fact reserves refers to the proportion of known lithium deposits that are relatively easy to extract, and that number has doubled in the last 10 years. In fact it's talking about 22 million tons of reserves in 2021, but there were actually 26 million tons in 2022. The amount of total known lithium deposits has far more than doubled in 10 years. Obvious it isn't infinite, but we have not reached peak lithium and we're going to keep discovering new deposits and improving technology to make known deposits mineable for at least a few more years. I mean look at the trend, why would we expect this to suddenly plateau this year: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-25-years-of-lithium-production-by-country/
Also, lithium is not renewable but it is recyclable. This isn't a huge industry right now, but there are a number of companies working on it and if mining becomes a bottleneck I think you'll see an enormous investment in ramping up battery recycling to reclaim the lithium we already have sitting around in old batteries. If all else fails, there is an incredible amount of lithium in the ocean that we have the technology to extract. Yes, it's very expensive right now, but that's because it's not necessary and there's not much attention given to it. This element is so incredibly important for human society now that I simply cannot believe there's a future where we say "well it's getting a little expensive to extract, let's go back to gas cars". I'm not saying I'll be shocked if Volvo is still selling some gas cars in 2030, but I will be shocked if the EV trend reverses and PHEVs take over.
You're right that the 500+ mile EV is an expensive toy for rich people. But recall that 15 years ago, the Tesla Roadster was a expensive toy for rich people with ~225 miles of range. This year you can buy a new Chevy Bolt with more range than that for $25,000. I'm not saying there will necessarily be a cheap 500 mile range EV in 10 years, but these prices are going to keep declining for now, this market and some of the relevant technology is still very new.
Finally, I disagree with your solar panels point. There isn't enough space for meaningful solar charging for normal usage, but we're talking about a multi-week overlanding expedition. A few panels on the roof with a few more that can be folded out when you're stopped, and there's absolutely enough charging capacity to be equivalent to a couple jerry cans in the trunk.
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Comment on My first electric road trip into rural Colorado in ~talk
burkaman Link ParentMaximum EV range will continue to increase for some time: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/evolution-of-average-range-of-electric-vehicles-by-powertrain-2010-2021. It won't be the...Maximum EV range will continue to increase for some time: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/evolution-of-average-range-of-electric-vehicles-by-powertrain-2010-2021. It won't be the average car, but I wouldn't be surprised if you can buy an EV with more than 600 miles of range in a few years. On a long trip in good conditions a solar array could also add a couple hundred miles of additional range, and solar panels will continue to decrease in price as well (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).
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Comment on My first electric road trip into rural Colorado in ~talk
burkaman Link ParentI think you are a little late with this prediction to be honest. EVs are not a niche trend anymore, growth is exponential with ~7 million pure EVs sold worldwide last year while gas car sales have...I think you are a little late with this prediction to be honest. EVs are not a niche trend anymore, growth is exponential with ~7 million pure EVs sold worldwide last year while gas car sales have been declining for 6 years now. Norway is close to 100% of new car sales being EVs already, and many countries are considering or have already passed bans on new gas cars (often including plug-in hybrids) starting around 2040. Some car companies are onboard, Volvo for example has announced they will be fully electric by 2030 (which is pretty soon now).
The EV transition is inevitable. We are not going to switch to plug-in hybrids, which kind of suck to be honest, look them up. The electric range is very low, it's not like a Tesla that also has a gas engine in case you need it.
Overlanding is the tinest of tiny car subcultures, and it's ok if it continues to be gas-powered. Gas cars aren't going to disappear, you just won't be able to buy a brand new one in 10 or 15 years. There are also already EVs with 500+ mile range, I wouldn't rule out some beating the 600+ mile TDI in a few years. Add on an efficient solar array that can top up the charge in good conditions, and you're good to go.
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Comment on Who is actually the best climber to have ever lived? in ~sports
burkaman Link ParentI don't have an answer to your question but I very strongly recommend The Dawn Wall if you liked The Alpinist. Just watch that one and you'll already be as confused as everyone else about who the...I don't have an answer to your question but I very strongly recommend The Dawn Wall if you liked The Alpinist. Just watch that one and you'll already be as confused as everyone else about who the greatest climber ever is.
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Comment on An AI generated version of Seinfeld is running on Twitch non-stop in ~comp
burkaman LinkThis has been running for about 2 months now.This has been running for about 2 months now.
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Comment on How Kurzgesagt cooks propaganda for billionaires in ~science
burkaman Link ParentTo be upfront I have not watched this video yet, but if you're interested in understanding why Bill Gates' philanthopy could be considered bad, I recommend a book called The New Prophets of...To be upfront I have not watched this video yet, but if you're interested in understanding why Bill Gates' philanthopy could be considered bad, I recommend a book called The New Prophets of Capital. It's pretty short, and Gates is one of the four "prophets" it discusses. Obviously I agree that Gates could do a lot worse with his money, but he could also do a lot better - I think Mackenzie Scott is the current best model for how to no-strings-attached give away billions that you shouldn't have.
I won't be able to do the argument justice in a comment, but the basic idea is that Gates uses his money to promote market philosophies in the areas he works, like healthcare and education. For example if he wants to extend the reach of vaccines in Africa, the problem he identifies is that poor countries just don't have enough money to incentivize pharmaceutical companies to produce what they need, so we just need to stimulate demand until these countries are able to pay a fair market price for the vaccines they need. This promotes the concept of healthcare as a commodity.
Another argument is that his philanthropy is undemocratic - since he has more money than the GDP of many African countries, he's able to come in and implement whatever he wants whether or not people like it. One example given is AGRA, a program to improve the efficiency and success of African farmers (good), and one method they use is to try to end the traditional practice of farmers harvesting and communally sharing their own seeds, and instead get them to start buying more efficient seeds from Monsanto and friends every year. Here's an article I just found about this issue: https://grain.org/en/article/6035-the-real-seeds-producers-small-scale-farmers-save-use-share-and-enhance-the-seed-diversity-of-the-crops-that-feed-africa. Gates is on the corporate side of this conflict.
This comment probably sounds very one-sided and unfair, but I promise the book, while obviously agenda-driven, is more even-handed and cites plenty of sources to make these arguments.
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Comment on Tesla: Our ‘failure’ to make actual self-driving cars ‘is not fraud’ in ~tech
burkaman Link ParentI think they are right that bad predictions by a CEO shouldn't be considered fraud or false advertising (maybe investors would have a case though?), but selling a product called "Full Self Driving...I think they are right that bad predictions by a CEO shouldn't be considered fraud or false advertising (maybe investors would have a case though?), but selling a product called "Full Self Driving Capability" obviously is fraud.
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Comment on Someday aliens will land and all will be fine until we explain our calendar in ~life
burkaman Link ParentNo the issue is that we go from 11:59AM to 12:00PM, but then 12:59PM to 1:00PM. 1 does not come after 12, it would be a little more logical if AM->PM and 12->1 happened at the same time. It makes...No the issue is that we go from 11:59AM to 12:00PM, but then 12:59PM to 1:00PM. 1 does not come after 12, it would be a little more logical if AM->PM and 12->1 happened at the same time. It makes sense if you think about an analog clock, but it's hard to explain without that context.
Edit: Actually no it doesn't really make sense even with an analog clock, really we should rotate everything counterclockwise one hour and 1 should be the first hour at the top of the clock.
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Comment on Is the US going to break up? in ~talk
burkaman LinkYou should do this regardless, having EU citizenship is awesome. Start looking into it now, the process is going to take a very long time.I have European-immigrant parents, so would getting citizenship in their country be prudent?
You should do this regardless, having EU citizenship is awesome. Start looking into it now, the process is going to take a very long time.
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Comment on The case against the Supreme Court of the United States in ~humanities
burkaman Link ParentThis metaphor of law as code comes up a lot on the internet, but it's wrong and it's not helpful for understanding the system. Law is not code, it is explicitly intended to be interpreted by...- Exemplary
This metaphor of law as code comes up a lot on the internet, but it's wrong and it's not helpful for understanding the system. Law is not code, it is explicitly intended to be interpreted by humans, because there is no alternative. It's not possible to write a law that anticipates every possible scenario, that's why we write relatively vague laws and involve humans (police, DAs, judges, juries) at every step of the process.
Consider Pace v. Alabama, the 1883 decision that unanimously upheld anti-miscegenation laws, and Loving v. Virginia, the 1967 unanimous decision that struck them down. Both cases were decided based on the 14th amendment. What changed in those 84 years? The "code" didn't change - the laws under consideration were basically the same, and the 14th amendment certainly didn't change. Both decisions were written by smart people, and if you try to read them from some kind of "objective" legal viewpoint, I'd argue they're both fairly convincing. But they can't both be right.
What changed is the human beings involved - the judges and the society they live in. This is intentional, and the Constitution and most laws are vague on purpose. Look at the 1st amendment for example: almost every single word is vague and up to interpretation. Can you give me an objective definition for any of these: "establishment of religion", "religion", "free exercise", "abridging", "speech", "the press", "peaceably", "assemble", "petition". You can't, and you aren't supposed to be able to. It's supposed to change, it's supposed to be flexible. If they had listed which religions count and which publishers are considered press and what actions are considered peacable then it would have been useless within a month.
Law is not code, it is a tool for our society to organize and regulate itself. Laws are not universally applied - you shouldn't get a speeding ticket for drifting 1 MPH over the limit for 10 seconds. Police and DAs have broad latitude about deciding when to enforce any particular law, and that's the way it should be. Sentences vary wildly and often consider a plaintiff's history and background. This is a good thing. You can't write code that considers mysterious concepts like a person's intentions and "state of mind" but we can and should write laws like that. You can't write code if you don't know what compiler will be used and what CPU it will be run on, but that's the way laws are written. Reflect for a moment on why Supreme Court decisions are called "opinions", and why computer outputs are not.
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Comment on Solving the challenges of robotic pizza-making in ~tech
burkaman LinkPizza-making seems to be a very popular target for robotics startups, which is weird because we've had successful industrial-scale pizza robots for decades. In this case it seems like the...Pizza-making seems to be a very popular target for robotics startups, which is weird because we've had successful industrial-scale pizza robots for decades. In this case it seems like the researchers are just using pizza as a representative difficult human task to develop a more general purpose algorithm, but I still want to mention: when you're designing a robot to accomplish a particular task, asking "how does a human do it" is almost always the wrong question. Here's a modern pizza robot: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsuxMC3ObTE. Having seen that, now watch this incredibly embarrassing video from Zume Pizza, a startup that had raised $6 million at the time this was filmed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFSdxwRVh8A. A year later they raised $48 million more before realizing this is a stupid idea, then pivoting, raising several hundred million more, buying a company called Pivot, and pivoting again.
Think about your dishwasher, a 100-year-old domestic robot. It uses less water and soap than you, takes up less space, makes less noise, etc. If we instead tried to design a humanoid dishwashing robot, it would lose all these advantages and gain an enormous amount of complexity.
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Comment on Contra Chrome in ~tech
burkaman Link ParentSNL impressions are always done so that nobody could believe they are the real person. Also, the skits work because politicians are well-known public figures and viewers understand the context and...SNL impressions are always done so that nobody could believe they are the real person. Also, the skits work because politicians are well-known public figures and viewers understand the context and real person being parodied. In this case, most people have never heard of Scott McCloud and have no way of knowing whether this is a parody of his views or what he actually believes.
I saw this comic a few days ago and I genuinely though someone named Scott McCloud had become disillusioned with Google and written this update of his own comic. I'm pretty surprised and annoyed as a reader to find out that's not the case, and I imagine Scott would be even more annoyed. I also think the comic seems less impactful if it's not actually a former Google supporter that has realized the error of his ways.
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Comment on Elon Musk becomes Twitter’s largest shareholder in ~tech
burkaman (edited )LinkUpdate: He has joined the Twitter board of directors (https://twitter.com/paraga/status/1511320953598357505) Update update: nevermind (https://twitter.com/paraga/status/1513354622466867201)Update: He has joined the Twitter board of directors (https://twitter.com/paraga/status/1511320953598357505)
Update update: nevermind (https://twitter.com/paraga/status/1513354622466867201)
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Comment on ‘Blade Runner 2099’ live-action sequel series from Ridley Scott in works at Amazon Studios in ~tv
burkaman Link"Executive producing" generally means he is getting paid to put his name on it and will have no other involvement. Stealing this observation from an HN comment I saw, but Ridley Scott is 84 years...Ridley Scott, who directed the original 1982 Blade Runner movie, is executive producing the series
"Executive producing" generally means he is getting paid to put his name on it and will have no other involvement.
Stealing this observation from an HN comment I saw, but Ridley Scott is 84 years old and actively producing at least 18 projects, and directing 4 (https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000631/). Keep this in mind when you see his name on new stuff.
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Comment on Suicide hotline shares data with for-profit spinoff in ~tech
burkaman LinkUpdate: https://www.crisistextline.org/blog/2022/01/31/an-update-on-data-privacy-our-community-and-our-service/ Loris won't delete models they've already built based on past data, but this is...We understand that you don’t want Crisis Text Line to share any data with Loris, even though the data is handled securely, anonymized and scrubbed of personally identifiable information. As a result, we have ended our data-sharing relationship with Loris. This change includes our request that Loris delete the data it has received from Crisis Text Line. We have updated our Terms of Service & Privacy Policy accordingly to reflect this change. (Note: While a data sharing relationship has existed, Loris has not accessed any data since the beginning of 2020.)
Loris won't delete models they've already built based on past data, but this is still better than nothing and a pretty fast response.
I think this is a reasonable use case. Having a bot monitor forums for new material could be pretty beneficial for the world.