Or to put it another way, the grid is becoming the most important bottleneck when it’s sunny, and that will be an opportunity for technologies that take advantage of cheap solar but somehow avoid...
Or to put it another way, the grid is becoming the most important bottleneck when it’s sunny, and that will be an opportunity for technologies that take advantage of cheap solar but somehow avoid the bottleneck.
Perhaps countries with worse grids (like Japan) noticed the bottleneck first? I think in the US there’s been an assumption that building enough power lines is doable.
Ultimately, it would be better for distributed storage solutions to be subsidized as much if not more than solar itself, as we still haven't solved that nasty 'sun goes down at night' problem.
Ultimately, it would be better for distributed storage solutions to be subsidized as much if not more than solar itself, as we still haven't solved that nasty 'sun goes down at night' problem.
Which is why I'm so excited by grid-scale batteries becoming rapidly cheaper! Especially if space is not a concern, sodium ion batteries are significantly cheaper than lithium batteries.
Which is why I'm so excited by grid-scale batteries becoming rapidly cheaper! Especially if space is not a concern, sodium ion batteries are significantly cheaper than lithium batteries.
Part of the reason I want them decentralized is that having them localized at point of use reduces transmission losses. Having 1/10 of homes in the USA having say a 10kwh battery, which costs...
Part of the reason I want them decentralized is that having them localized at point of use reduces transmission losses.
Having 1/10 of homes in the USA having say a 10kwh battery, which costs about $4k retail provides an overall capacity of 150GWh, in a way that makes it less prone to becoming useless in partial grid failure situations...and the tech is ready today.
There is a utility in Vermont doing it, but it’s more about reliability in rural areas. I expect that will be the main application and utility-scale batteries will make more sense for cities.
There is a utility in Vermont doing it, but it’s more about reliability in rural areas. I expect that will be the main application and utility-scale batteries will make more sense for cities.
We have various rules in electrical code, like whole-home surge protection in new builds. Maybe a rule along the lines 'minimum 5 kwh battery installed in electric panel' for new builds as a sort...
We have various rules in electrical code, like whole-home surge protection in new builds.
Maybe a rule along the lines 'minimum 5 kwh battery installed in electric panel' for new builds as a sort of brownout/blackout insurance, even without onsite generation.
That would potentially add $4k to a new build, but that's like a drop in the bucket.
$4k would indeed be a drop in the bucket, especially if you want to pair ongoing forever "brownout/blackout insurance" cost as the stick that goes with the carrot.
$4k would indeed be a drop in the bucket, especially if you want to pair ongoing forever "brownout/blackout insurance" cost as the stick that goes with the carrot.
I feel like we should just do pumped hydro and send the water into fountains and waterfalls. Maybe even make artificial whitewater rapids by releasing dams over turbines.
I feel like we should just do pumped hydro and send the water into fountains and waterfalls. Maybe even make artificial whitewater rapids by releasing dams over turbines.
The trouble is not everywhere has the geography to support dams, and they can be ecologically devastating (or "transformative" if you prefer). Rapids can be just as problematic due to the...
The trouble is not everywhere has the geography to support dams, and they can be ecologically devastating (or "transformative" if you prefer). Rapids can be just as problematic due to the turbulence stirring up all the soil.
If it’s for pumped hydro storage you can just be using the dams to create artificial recreational lakes and streams. It wouldn’t need to be on existing rivers.
If it’s for pumped hydro storage you can just be using the dams to create artificial recreational lakes and streams. It wouldn’t need to be on existing rivers.
It might be doable in theory, but requires a lot of investments. Investments that are not necessarily done (everywhere), and when the budget is made available, it is often late. To the point that...
Perhaps countries with worse grids (like Japan) noticed the bottleneck first? I think in the US there’s been an assumption that building enough power lines is doable.
It might be doable in theory, but requires a lot of investments. Investments that are not necessarily done (everywhere), and when the budget is made available, it is often late. To the point that it will take several years if not longer before the grid has been upgraded.
In fact, it is interesting when you say that Japan has a worse grid when I know the US to have the reputation of having a power grid that has lacked critical investments in its core infrastructure for decades. Here in the Netherlands we already struggle to keep up. And I know for a fact that our grid has been maintained to a higher standard compared to that in many (most) places in the US. Outages here for example are extremely rare compared to the US. To the point that most people will struggle to remember when the power went out for the last time. When I went to look it up I also compared it to Japan which is interesting as a lower score here is better. For reference, it is showing the System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI), which measures the average outage time per customer per year.
When I went to investigate a bit more, I found that the Japanese grid is actually not known to be worse. In fact, it is known for its reliability (shown in the SAIDI score, amongst other things). So maybe you were thinking of a different country, but also there, I doubt it is another Western country. All sources I come across seem to indicate that the US is lagging behind when it concerns the powergrid.
I have no direct knowledge, but there was a post on Tildes about Japan’s challenges scaling up its grid (in particular, the 50/60 hz split and relying on imported fuel) that seemed pretty convincing.
I have no direct knowledge, but there was a post on Tildes about Japan’s challenges scaling up its grid (in particular, the 50/60 hz split and relying on imported fuel) that seemed pretty convincing.
That is a different kind of challenge. This has little to do with the quality of the grid itself, but rather the complex situation they're dealing with. It has very little relevance to the...
I have no direct knowledge, but there was a post on Tildes about Japan’s challenges scaling up its grid (in particular, the 50/60 hz split and relying on imported fuel) that seemed pretty convincing.
That is a different kind of challenge. This has little to do with the quality of the grid itself, but rather the complex situation they're dealing with. It has very little relevance to the situation the US is facing.
Japan’s grid reliability, as I mentioned in my earlier comment (with the SAIDI data), contrasts with the unique challenges of scaling or transitioning energy sources, which are not the same as maintaining a basic functioning grid.
Additionally, I really want to point out that relying solely on one post from Tildes may not provide a full picture. Certainly not when referencing the US situation. Even more so, as it seems you have some unchecked assumptions about the US situation.
I provided a variety of articles and sources that actually are applicable to the US and the unique challenges the US is facing. So I very much would like to invite you to check them out for yourself.
Okay, will do, but I am actually curious about Japan, so if that post is inaccurate, it would be good to get another opinion. (Worse is a vague word - it could be on a variety of dimensions. My...
Okay, will do, but I am actually curious about Japan, so if that post is inaccurate, it would be good to get another opinion.
(Worse is a vague word - it could be on a variety of dimensions. My understanding is that Japan seems to have less confidence in scaling their grid up to the demands of increased electrification and is more interested in alternatives.)
Okay, maybe I am being unclear here, although I don't really think so. I am not saying the post about japan is inaccurate. I am saying it is not relevant when talking about the US's power grid.
Okay, maybe I am being unclear here, although I don't really think so.
I am not saying the post about japan is inaccurate. I am saying it is not relevant when talking about the US's power grid.
That's true, but the article is about a global trends, and I made a vague comparison between countries. I was clarifying the post you originally replied to.
That's true, but the article is about a global trends, and I made a vague comparison between countries. I was clarifying the post you originally replied to.
Pretty sure the US grid is not so great relatively. I remember one of the key reasons being that many European countries rebuilt practically from scratch after WWIi due to damage from bombing...
Pretty sure the US grid is not so great relatively. I remember one of the key reasons being that many European countries rebuilt practically from scratch after WWIi due to damage from bombing campaigns. The US never had this so....we still have wires on wooden poles for transmission in some places.
Other developing/recently developed countries basically skipped a few "versions" and basically started at v3.0 instead of 1.0 because that was the most cost effective method at the time. They went from "nothing" to underground eartquake proof grids rather than above ground wires on sticks.
Size also matters, smaller countries can have mostly underground set ups, whereas larger countries pretty much have to use above ground towers and wires for long range transmission due to cost.
Try 'lots of places.' Turns out its pretty cheap to drill a wood post in the ground and tether some wires to it, especially in rural areas, where people per square mile can be in the single digits
The US never had this so....we still have wires on wooden poles for transmission in some places.
Try 'lots of places.' Turns out its pretty cheap to drill a wood post in the ground and tether some wires to it, especially in rural areas, where people per square mile can be in the single digits
I was going to call you insane, but then while looking up the relative quality of the US grid(s) (other than the independent Texas grid), I found that my state apparently has the most reliable...
I was going to call you insane, but then while looking up the relative quality of the US grid(s) (other than the independent Texas grid), I found that my state apparently has the most reliable grid in the country, so maybe that has colored my experience.
I don't know who's first, but energy companies have been charging people for putting too much solar energy back on the grid here in the Netherlands. I think we're seeing the same pop up elsewhere...
I don't know who's first, but energy companies have been charging people for putting too much solar energy back on the grid here in the Netherlands.
I think we're seeing the same pop up elsewhere and I recently read an article here that mentions that California is having the same problems.
The energy companies in the Netherlands are not the companies who actually maintain the infrastructure. That is a very important distinction to make. As I said, yes the Netherlands is struggling,...
I don't know who's first, but energy companies have been charging people for putting too much solar energy back on the grid here in the Netherlands.
The energy companies in the Netherlands are not the companies who actually maintain the infrastructure. That is a very important distinction to make.
As I said, yes the Netherlands is struggling, but it really is not the same as in the US. Part of the struggle we are dealing with is upgrading the grid while maintaining the same high standard. If we would use the same standards as the US we suddenly would have much more capacity out of the blue.
This was fun to read. I like this person's tone and writing style. Now I have to go back and find out why batteries are going to eat the world. I am off grid, with solar and batteries, and I gotta...
This was fun to read. I like this person's tone and writing style. Now I have to go back and find out why batteries are going to eat the world.
I am off grid, with solar and batteries, and I gotta say... I thought it would be much harder for some reason. I thought there would be a lot more inconveniences but it is really not that different. The only one that sucks is not being able to run my air conditioner past 6pm in July but other than that it's great. I could technically, but the battery would die and I try to only use 2kwh in the night time.
I haven't jumped the gun yet but do want to. I'll most likely hire a company to install a buncha stuff instead of doing my homework though, these days I don't have the mental capacity for much....
I haven't jumped the gun yet but do want to. I'll most likely hire a company to install a buncha stuff instead of doing my homework though, these days I don't have the mental capacity for much. Hopefully my procrastination means cheaper and better tech when I get around to it
Yeah it seems like you have to be pretty knowledgeable to do it yourself. Lucky for me, I rented this place from a battery engineer so it is his job and also his hobby to build electrical shit. He...
Yeah it seems like you have to be pretty knowledgeable to do it yourself. Lucky for me, I rented this place from a battery engineer so it is his job and also his hobby to build electrical shit. He sold the property 6 months ago to my next door neighbors, who are construction workers. There is always something being built, upgraded, worked on.. I would definitely have to hire someone if I ever get a property of my own. It is cool being around people who know what they're doing! My other neighbor is working on a gray water reclamation system that repurposes the water from his outdoor shower into a little fountain for the wildlife to drink from (I'm guessing it will be mostly birds and frogs though we do have foxes, raccoons, and coyotes). It will use plants as a filter. Off grid stuff is neat.
Oh man I would love to learn how to build anything =..= pretty exciting to live next to folks who know stuff . So it sounds like you live in an area with a lot of folks off grid and know stuff,...
Oh man I would love to learn how to build anything =..= pretty exciting to live next to folks who know stuff . So it sounds like you live in an area with a lot of folks off grid and know stuff, that's so cool. My partner made alcohol for a while. If stuff goes down that's our trade currency, we would joke. Beer and chickens.
Beer and chickens is a solid post apocalyptic business. I did make a little fence a few weeks ago. It looks like what you would make in the tutorial of a survival crafting game, but it does keep...
Beer and chickens is a solid post apocalyptic business. I did make a little fence a few weeks ago. It looks like what you would make in the tutorial of a survival crafting game, but it does keep the goose where she belongs!
Goose!!!! And I guess duck + duck as well? Do you have plans for more birbs? We also have birbs :D That is a very video game looking fense indeed :) I love your practicality of using assorted...
Goose!!!! And I guess duck + duck as well? Do you have plans for more birbs?
That is a very video game looking fense indeed :) I love your practicality of using assorted lengths of vertices vertical pieces instead of wastefully insisting on orthogonal lines. it's all they need though.... Most of our geese fencing is actually green plastic snow fence.
Look at those babies!!!! I want to expand my little flock, and add chickens, but there is some chance I will have to move so I'm waiting to see about that. Might be a 2025 goal. Ducks are so cute...
Look at those babies!!!! I want to expand my little flock, and add chickens, but there is some chance I will have to move so I'm waiting to see about that. Might be a 2025 goal. Ducks are so cute they make me happy :) They are filthy filth monsters though. I have 2 welsh harlequin, and 1 silver appleyard.
Goose fence seems to have a psychological component. I built a smaller one to protect some plants that she could easily flap over, but she just stands next to it and stares inside. It is not very tall. Here is level 2 crafting fence
I like to try to use up the garbage materials that are laying around :)
Ahh the Forbidden Garden with all sizes of feathers blown up against it. Tis a familiar sight around my parts :) In hindsight adding animals so soon really have limited the travel options. But...
Ahh the Forbidden Garden with all sizes of feathers blown up against it. Tis a familiar sight around my parts :)
In hindsight adding animals so soon really have limited the travel options. But there's so darn cute! I agree ducks are adorable. My dad used to keep them and he doesn't like to eat any because he still remembers how dirty they are lol not because they're too cute to eat . I want call ducks. And quails. So many tiny birds.....
It's a regular window unit, the kind that's on wheels and easy to set up with any window. It runs at abput 1000 watts. There are 6 other houses/RVs hooked up to the same battery which is why we...
It's a regular window unit, the kind that's on wheels and easy to set up with any window. It runs at abput 1000 watts. There are 6 other houses/RVs hooked up to the same battery which is why we try to have night time allowances. Technically I could run more, but if all of us did that without being aware of the others we would drain the battery which is not good for it. It happens every so often, usually at the very start of the summer.
Interestingly, I do have a propane powered refrigerator which I didn't even know existed until I moved into this place.
The challenge with electricity sources like wind and solar are that neither are reliably available, even from day to day. Snow storm or a bunch of heavily cloudy days? Insufficient solar for...
The challenge with electricity sources like wind and solar are that neither are reliably available, even from day to day. Snow storm or a bunch of heavily cloudy days? Insufficient solar for several days. Electricity usage is also heavily seasonal in some regions based on the needs of heating and cooling during weather. So unless you're willing to risk that to live off-grid (most people are not), you still need the same amount of electrical generation and transmission infrastructure as if you had no solar at all. The only resource that solar saves is the fuel needed to generate power during peak demands. The power plants and infrastructure still need to be built and sized at full consumer capability. The only way to avoid this would be to have enough power storage for the worst-case scenarios, like multiple days of freezing-cold temperatures with little to no usable sunlight.
Here is another recent article on the solar costs and opportunities for further reductions in "soft" costs: https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/can-solar-costs-keep-shrinking
Or to put it another way, the grid is becoming the most important bottleneck when it’s sunny, and that will be an opportunity for technologies that take advantage of cheap solar but somehow avoid the bottleneck.
Perhaps countries with worse grids (like Japan) noticed the bottleneck first? I think in the US there’s been an assumption that building enough power lines is doable.
Ultimately, it would be better for distributed storage solutions to be subsidized as much if not more than solar itself, as we still haven't solved that nasty 'sun goes down at night' problem.
Which is why I'm so excited by grid-scale batteries becoming rapidly cheaper! Especially if space is not a concern, sodium ion batteries are significantly cheaper than lithium batteries.
Part of the reason I want them decentralized is that having them localized at point of use reduces transmission losses.
Having 1/10 of homes in the USA having say a 10kwh battery, which costs about $4k retail provides an overall capacity of 150GWh, in a way that makes it less prone to becoming useless in partial grid failure situations...and the tech is ready today.
There is a utility in Vermont doing it, but it’s more about reliability in rural areas. I expect that will be the main application and utility-scale batteries will make more sense for cities.
You make a good point. I can definitely imagine some apartment towers benefitting from a battery installation.
We have various rules in electrical code, like whole-home surge protection in new builds.
Maybe a rule along the lines 'minimum 5 kwh battery installed in electric panel' for new builds as a sort of brownout/blackout insurance, even without onsite generation.
That would potentially add $4k to a new build, but that's like a drop in the bucket.
$4k would indeed be a drop in the bucket, especially if you want to pair ongoing forever "brownout/blackout insurance" cost as the stick that goes with the carrot.
I feel like we should just do pumped hydro and send the water into fountains and waterfalls. Maybe even make artificial whitewater rapids by releasing dams over turbines.
The trouble is not everywhere has the geography to support dams, and they can be ecologically devastating (or "transformative" if you prefer). Rapids can be just as problematic due to the turbulence stirring up all the soil.
If it’s for pumped hydro storage you can just be using the dams to create artificial recreational lakes and streams. It wouldn’t need to be on existing rivers.
Which destroys any communities and ecology that existed in the area. I'm not necessarily opposed, but it's neither easy nor simple.
I’m talking about urban parks so the existing ecology is parking lots and highway interchanges.
Well as a radical urbanist that loves solar punk and livable communities, I like the idea. I can't imagine how you'd get the NIMBYs onboard though.
Fountains and kayaking next door. What’s not to like?
It might be doable in theory, but requires a lot of investments. Investments that are not necessarily done (everywhere), and when the budget is made available, it is often late. To the point that it will take several years if not longer before the grid has been upgraded.
In fact, it is interesting when you say that Japan has a worse grid when I know the US to have the reputation of having a power grid that has lacked critical investments in its core infrastructure for decades. Here in the Netherlands we already struggle to keep up. And I know for a fact that our grid has been maintained to a higher standard compared to that in many (most) places in the US. Outages here for example are extremely rare compared to the US. To the point that most people will struggle to remember when the power went out for the last time. When I went to look it up I also compared it to Japan which is interesting as a lower score here is better. For reference, it is showing the System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI), which measures the average outage time per customer per year.
When I went to investigate a bit more, I found that the Japanese grid is actually not known to be worse. In fact, it is known for its reliability (shown in the SAIDI score, amongst other things). So maybe you were thinking of a different country, but also there, I doubt it is another Western country. All sources I come across seem to indicate that the US is lagging behind when it concerns the powergrid.
I have no direct knowledge, but there was a post on Tildes about Japan’s challenges scaling up its grid (in particular, the 50/60 hz split and relying on imported fuel) that seemed pretty convincing.
That is a different kind of challenge. This has little to do with the quality of the grid itself, but rather the complex situation they're dealing with. It has very little relevance to the situation the US is facing.
Japan’s grid reliability, as I mentioned in my earlier comment (with the SAIDI data), contrasts with the unique challenges of scaling or transitioning energy sources, which are not the same as maintaining a basic functioning grid.
Additionally, I really want to point out that relying solely on one post from Tildes may not provide a full picture. Certainly not when referencing the US situation. Even more so, as it seems you have some unchecked assumptions about the US situation.
I provided a variety of articles and sources that actually are applicable to the US and the unique challenges the US is facing. So I very much would like to invite you to check them out for yourself.
Okay, will do, but I am actually curious about Japan, so if that post is inaccurate, it would be good to get another opinion.
(Worse is a vague word - it could be on a variety of dimensions. My understanding is that Japan seems to have less confidence in scaling their grid up to the demands of increased electrification and is more interested in alternatives.)
Okay, maybe I am being unclear here, although I don't really think so.
I am not saying the post about japan is inaccurate. I am saying it is not relevant when talking about the US's power grid.
That's true, but the article is about a global trends, and I made a vague comparison between countries. I was clarifying the post you originally replied to.
Pretty sure the US grid is not so great relatively. I remember one of the key reasons being that many European countries rebuilt practically from scratch after WWIi due to damage from bombing campaigns. The US never had this so....we still have wires on wooden poles for transmission in some places.
Other developing/recently developed countries basically skipped a few "versions" and basically started at v3.0 instead of 1.0 because that was the most cost effective method at the time. They went from "nothing" to underground eartquake proof grids rather than above ground wires on sticks.
Size also matters, smaller countries can have mostly underground set ups, whereas larger countries pretty much have to use above ground towers and wires for long range transmission due to cost.
Try 'lots of places.' Turns out its pretty cheap to drill a wood post in the ground and tether some wires to it, especially in rural areas, where people per square mile can be in the single digits
Yeah, I was thinking of cities when I wrote this. Should have said cities, not places.
Wires on poles can also be easier to rebuild after a disaster which is part of why they're the default in Japan.
I was going to call you insane, but then while looking up the relative quality of the US grid(s) (other than the independent Texas grid), I found that my state apparently has the most reliable grid in the country, so maybe that has colored my experience.
I don't know who's first, but energy companies have been charging people for putting too much solar energy back on the grid here in the Netherlands.
I think we're seeing the same pop up elsewhere and I recently read an article here that mentions that California is having the same problems.
The energy companies in the Netherlands are not the companies who actually maintain the infrastructure. That is a very important distinction to make.
As I said, yes the Netherlands is struggling, but it really is not the same as in the US. Part of the struggle we are dealing with is upgrading the grid while maintaining the same high standard. If we would use the same standards as the US we suddenly would have much more capacity out of the blue.
This was fun to read. I like this person's tone and writing style. Now I have to go back and find out why batteries are going to eat the world.
I am off grid, with solar and batteries, and I gotta say... I thought it would be much harder for some reason. I thought there would be a lot more inconveniences but it is really not that different. The only one that sucks is not being able to run my air conditioner past 6pm in July but other than that it's great. I could technically, but the battery would die and I try to only use 2kwh in the night time.
I haven't jumped the gun yet but do want to. I'll most likely hire a company to install a buncha stuff instead of doing my homework though, these days I don't have the mental capacity for much. Hopefully my procrastination means cheaper and better tech when I get around to it
Yeah it seems like you have to be pretty knowledgeable to do it yourself. Lucky for me, I rented this place from a battery engineer so it is his job and also his hobby to build electrical shit. He sold the property 6 months ago to my next door neighbors, who are construction workers. There is always something being built, upgraded, worked on.. I would definitely have to hire someone if I ever get a property of my own. It is cool being around people who know what they're doing! My other neighbor is working on a gray water reclamation system that repurposes the water from his outdoor shower into a little fountain for the wildlife to drink from (I'm guessing it will be mostly birds and frogs though we do have foxes, raccoons, and coyotes). It will use plants as a filter. Off grid stuff is neat.
Oh man I would love to learn how to build anything =..= pretty exciting to live next to folks who know stuff . So it sounds like you live in an area with a lot of folks off grid and know stuff, that's so cool. My partner made alcohol for a while. If stuff goes down that's our trade currency, we would joke. Beer and chickens.
Beer and chickens is a solid post apocalyptic business. I did make a little fence a few weeks ago. It looks like what you would make in the tutorial of a survival crafting game, but it does keep the goose where she belongs!
Level 1 fence
Goose!!!! And I guess duck + duck as well? Do you have plans for more birbs?
We also have birbs :D
That is a very video game looking fense indeed :) I love your practicality of using assorted lengths of
verticesvertical pieces instead of wastefully insisting on orthogonal lines. it's all they need though.... Most of our geese fencing is actually green plastic snow fence.Look at those babies!!!! I want to expand my little flock, and add chickens, but there is some chance I will have to move so I'm waiting to see about that. Might be a 2025 goal. Ducks are so cute they make me happy :) They are filthy filth monsters though. I have 2 welsh harlequin, and 1 silver appleyard.
Goose fence seems to have a psychological component. I built a smaller one to protect some plants that she could easily flap over, but she just stands next to it and stares inside. It is not very tall. Here is level 2 crafting fence
I like to try to use up the garbage materials that are laying around :)
Ahh the Forbidden Garden with all sizes of feathers blown up against it. Tis a familiar sight around my parts :)
In hindsight adding animals so soon really have limited the travel options. But there's so darn cute! I agree ducks are adorable. My dad used to keep them and he doesn't like to eat any because he still remembers how dirty they are lol not because they're too cute to eat . I want call ducks. And quails. So many tiny birds.....
Did you buy special equipment or is it a pretty ordinary AC air conditioner?
It's a regular window unit, the kind that's on wheels and easy to set up with any window. It runs at abput 1000 watts. There are 6 other houses/RVs hooked up to the same battery which is why we try to have night time allowances. Technically I could run more, but if all of us did that without being aware of the others we would drain the battery which is not good for it. It happens every so often, usually at the very start of the summer.
Interestingly, I do have a propane powered refrigerator which I didn't even know existed until I moved into this place.
The challenge with electricity sources like wind and solar are that neither are reliably available, even from day to day. Snow storm or a bunch of heavily cloudy days? Insufficient solar for several days. Electricity usage is also heavily seasonal in some regions based on the needs of heating and cooling during weather. So unless you're willing to risk that to live off-grid (most people are not), you still need the same amount of electrical generation and transmission infrastructure as if you had no solar at all. The only resource that solar saves is the fuel needed to generate power during peak demands. The power plants and infrastructure still need to be built and sized at full consumer capability. The only way to avoid this would be to have enough power storage for the worst-case scenarios, like multiple days of freezing-cold temperatures with little to no usable sunlight.
Here is another recent article on the solar costs and opportunities for further reductions in "soft" costs: https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/can-solar-costs-keep-shrinking