These are rookie numbers, it’s going to be way worse in the 2nd quarter, people haven't even seen empty shelves yet. There are two kinds of people in the world: 1: People who believe that the...
These are rookie numbers, it’s going to be way worse in the 2nd quarter, people haven't even seen empty shelves yet.
There are two kinds of people in the world:
1: People who believe that the election of Trump for a second term is a disaster for the entire world. For the world economy, for human rights, for the environment, for world peace
2: People who will find out the first group is correct
Note: a small number of people in the first group, like the authors of Project 2025, know they are doing tremendous damage but are gaining power or wealth so they are fine with burning down everything
Really, the only reasons the number isn't way lower is a combination of the US economy having been strong pre-Trump2, the dollar dominance, and it's general robustness. It's insanely impressive...
Really, the only reasons the number isn't way lower is a combination of the US economy having been strong pre-Trump2, the dollar dominance, and it's general robustness.
It's insanely impressive Trump managed to already bring it down into what's all but guaranteed to become a recession.
A decent chunk of group 2 won't actually find out - they're going to believe whatever Fox and Trump tell them, which is going to be that the economy is great, but any hardship they might be...
A decent chunk of group 2 won't actually find out - they're going to believe whatever Fox and Trump tell them, which is going to be that the economy is great, but any hardship they might be experiencing is the result of Biden and the Democrats, and that Trump and the Republicans are constantly making things even better.
This is my metric for if Carney is doing his job well. If he can paint a clear image that the Canadian GDP is not directly tied to the US one through growth, then we can consider his work a success
This is my metric for if Carney is doing his job well. If he can paint a clear image that the Canadian GDP is not directly tied to the US one through growth, then we can consider his work a success
A Washington Post article breaks it down: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-economy-tariffs/ (My contribution to the front-loading was buying a new tablet since I thought...
A Washington Post article breaks it down:
GDP, the sum of all goods and services produced in the country, is the broadest measure of the economy. In the latest quarter, a surge of imports subtracted a record five percentage points from the reading. That drop was largely offset by consumer spending and business investments, though economists warn that those gains were probably the result of tariff-related front-loading and likely to lead to less spending later in the year.
“What we see is a series of one-time factors propping up the economy, in the guise of a $140 billion inventory accumulation and a 22 percent increase in equipment spending,” said Joe Brusuelas, principal and chief economist for RSM US. “Those are going to completely reverse and then some, which tells me we’re ripe for the onset of a recession midyear.”
Sorry if this doesn't belong here (or if I tagged poorly) but it seemed like news. I tried to at least add the Trump and USA tags so people who don't want to see it should have it blocked.
Sorry if this doesn't belong here (or if I tagged poorly) but it seemed like news. I tried to at least add the Trump and USA tags so people who don't want to see it should have it blocked.
Trump is blaming Biden for the recession (Two quarters of shrinking real GDP is a recession.) Meanwhile, Navarro effectively blames Trump, saying this bad GDP readout is all due to trump's...
“you could even say the next quarter is sort of Biden.”
(Two quarters of shrinking real GDP is a recession.)
Meanwhile, Navarro effectively blames Trump, saying this bad GDP readout is all due to trump's Tarrifs, and tries to spin that as a good thing...
“That is off the charts when you strip out inventories and the negative effects of the surge in imports because of the tariffs, you had 3% growth,” Navarro said.
I am bemused by the fact that Trump is effectively acknowledging a recession is likely, while blaming Biden, yet still proceeding under the "short term pain" narrative.
Because it is. Two reasons mainly: It's kicking in an open door. It'll happen but it's generally unknown when. Trying to predict it based on vagaries like fundamentals is nonsense. They're usually...
Because it is. Two reasons mainly:
It's kicking in an open door. It'll happen but it's generally unknown when. Trying to predict it based on vagaries like fundamentals is nonsense.
These are rookie numbers, it’s going to be way worse in the 2nd quarter, people haven't even seen empty shelves yet.
There are two kinds of people in the world:
Note: a small number of people in the first group, like the authors of Project 2025, know they are doing tremendous damage but are gaining power or wealth so they are fine with burning down everything
Really, the only reasons the number isn't way lower is a combination of the US economy having been strong pre-Trump2, the dollar dominance, and it's general robustness.
It's insanely impressive Trump managed to already bring it down into what's all but guaranteed to become a recession.
A decent chunk of group 2 won't actually find out - they're going to believe whatever Fox and Trump tell them, which is going to be that the economy is great, but any hardship they might be experiencing is the result of Biden and the Democrats, and that Trump and the Republicans are constantly making things even better.
By way of reference, Stats Canada believes that Canada's economy grew by about 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 despite shrinking 0.2% in February.
This is my metric for if Carney is doing his job well. If he can paint a clear image that the Canadian GDP is not directly tied to the US one through growth, then we can consider his work a success
A Washington Post article breaks it down:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-economy-tariffs/
(My contribution to the front-loading was buying a new tablet since I thought Apple’s prices might go up.)
Sorry if this doesn't belong here (or if I tagged poorly) but it seemed like news. I tried to at least add the Trump and USA tags so people who don't want to see it should have it blocked.
Trump is blaming Biden for the recession
(Two quarters of shrinking real GDP is a recession.)
Meanwhile, Navarro effectively blames Trump, saying this bad GDP readout is all due to trump's Tarrifs, and tries to spin that as a good thing...
I am bemused by the fact that Trump is effectively acknowledging a recession is likely, while blaming Biden, yet still proceeding under the "short term pain" narrative.
This after claiming credit in 2024 for Biden's stock market gains because "investors were projecting Trump would win."
I remember someone on here saying it was a fool’s errand to predict a recession?
Typically, it is. But we don’t typically have a president that’s an idiot at best and doing the exact opposite of economic consensus.
Because it is. Two reasons mainly:
It's kicking in an open door. It'll happen but it's generally unknown when. Trying to predict it based on vagaries like fundamentals is nonsense.
They're usually not induced.
Unfortunately, the latter tripwire was sprung.
That was maybe me.
This time it's a fool's errand that is creating a recession.