19 votes

New anti-obesity drugs will outperform Ozempic

11 comments

  1. [3]
    skybrian
    Link
    Also see this blog post, about how people are trying to get weight-loss drugs more cheaply and the companies that cater to them: The Ozempocalypse Is Nigh (Astral Codex Ten) …

    Also see this blog post, about how people are trying to get weight-loss drugs more cheaply and the companies that cater to them:

    The Ozempocalypse Is Nigh (Astral Codex Ten)

    For the past three years, there’s been a shortage of these drugs. FDA regulations say that during a shortage, it’s semi-legal for compounding pharmacies to provide medications without getting the patent-holders’ permission. In practice, that means they get cheap peptides from China, do some minimal safety testing in house, and sell them online.

    So for the past three years, telehealth startups working with compounding pharmacies have sold these drugs for about $200/month. Over two million Americans have made use of this loophole to get weight loss drugs for cheap. But there was always a looming question - what happens when the shortage ends? Many people have to stay on GLP-1 drugs permanently, or else they risk regaining their lost weight. But many can’t afford $1000/month. What happens to them?

    Now we’ll find out. At the end of last year, the FDA declared the shortage over. The compounding pharmacies appealed the decision, but last month the FDA confirmed its decision was final. As of March 19 (for tirzepatide) and April 22 (for semaglutide), compounding pharmacies will no longer be able to sell cheap GLP-1 drugs.

    Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the pharma companies behind semaglutide and tirzepatide respectively, have opened consumer-facing businesses about halfway between a traditional doctor’s appointment and the telehealth/compounder model that’s getting banned. So for example, Lilly Direct offers to “find you a doctor” (I think this means you do telehealth with an Eli Lilly stooge who always gives you the meds you want) and “get medications delivered directly to you”. The price depends on dose, but an average dose would be about $500 - so about halfway between the cheap compounding price and the usual insurance price. Not bad.

    14 votes
    1. [2]
      hungariantoast
      Link Parent
      The price for semaglutide from compound pharmacies around Texas is usually $100/month. None of the people I know who use compound pharmacies dealt with vulture tele-"health" middlemen to get...

      So for the past three years, telehealth startups working with compounding pharmacies have sold these drugs for about $200/month

      The price for semaglutide from compound pharmacies around Texas is usually $100/month. None of the people I know who use compound pharmacies dealt with vulture tele-"health" middlemen to get there, so maybe that's why they get it cheaper?

      Not that it will matter for much longer, I guess.

      Even if compound pharmacies stop being able to provide these medications though, there will still be ways to get them for cheap. Cheaper than from compound pharmacies even. I already know two people who just buy the peptides themselves. They spend about $15/month for their supplies. You're putting a lot of trust in your supplier by going that route, but some people consider it worth the risk. (I personally don't recommend it.)

      I'll spare everyone the rant, and just say that I'm very disappointed about all of this.

      We can build a better healthcare system. We can do more, for less, to take care of each other better.

      22 votes
      1. skybrian
        Link Parent
        Yeah, the cheapest option is mentioned in the article too, but nobody wants to encourage it.

        Yeah, the cheapest option is mentioned in the article too, but nobody wants to encourage it.

        6 votes
  2. skybrian
    Link
    From the article:

    From the article:

    There are already 100 new drug candidates in trials, all vying for a slice of the obesity treatment market, which could reach $100 billion by 2030. Nearly all of the major pharmaceutical companies are making their bets on the weight-loss business.

    Retatrutide, also from Eli Lilly, adds glucagon — a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels — to GLP-1 and GIP. Although it is not yet approved, this compound has shown a reduction of nearly a quarter of the participants' weight (24%) in its trials and could be approved as early as 2027.

    Meanwhile, at Novo Nordisk, the most valuable European company thanks to its anti-obesity drugs, they are testing a range of drugs, including Cagrisema, which combines GLP-1 with an analog of amylin, a hormone that slows gastric emptying and reduces appetite. In an advanced clinical trial presented last December, Cagrisema showed an average weight reduction of 22.7% after 68 weeks of treatment. While the difference might seem small to patients and doctors, the market viewed these results as a disappointment, with the stock falling 29% in a single day. This data underscores the intensity of the competition and raises questions about whether the push for even greater weight loss could lead to health problems. Cagrisema could be approved next year.

    8 votes
  3. stu2b50
    Link
    Exciting to see. Ozempic and co is too expensive for most people to use consistently without insurance coverage, but that seems likely to change in the next 5 years. Hopefully it can put a dent...

    Exciting to see. Ozempic and co is too expensive for most people to use consistently without insurance coverage, but that seems likely to change in the next 5 years. Hopefully it can put a dent into the obesity epidemic - 70% overweight and 40% obese are horrific numbers in the US.

    7 votes
  4. [5]
    tlhunter
    Link
    If these drugs that decrease appetite become cheap and commonplace could it destroy the fast food and junk food industries?

    If these drugs that decrease appetite become cheap and commonplace could it destroy the fast food and junk food industries?

    7 votes
    1. ShroudedScribe
      Link Parent
      Yeah, I read an article (might have been posted here?) that some of the big food giants have identified there's a completely different food purchasing pattern for GLP-1 consumers. To the point...

      Yeah, I read an article (might have been posted here?) that some of the big food giants have identified there's a completely different food purchasing pattern for GLP-1 consumers. To the point they're realizing they will have to make different products.

      11 votes
    2. [2]
      SteeeveTheSteve
      Link Parent
      You mean the industries designed around using addiction to get people to eat more of their products? Yes, a drug that stops the addiction will destroy them. No appetite, no addiction. Maybe we'll...

      You mean the industries designed around using addiction to get people to eat more of their products? Yes, a drug that stops the addiction will destroy them. No appetite, no addiction.

      Maybe we'll get food with actual spices in them? Though that might be as wishful thinking as wanting restrictions on sugar and salt content in what is supposed to be food. How we allow what is basically toxic food to fill our stores is beyond me.

      8 votes
      1. Akir
        Link Parent
        I am all in on the American cardamom revolution.

        Maybe we'll get food with actual spices in them?

        I am all in on the American cardamom revolution.

        11 votes
  5. mezze
    Link
    Now if a pharmaceutical company could make something as effective as Retatrutide in pill form, it would be a game changer. I would have to imagine bariatric surgeons would be out of a job by then.

    Now if a pharmaceutical company could make something as effective as Retatrutide in pill form, it would be a game changer. I would have to imagine bariatric surgeons would be out of a job by then.