9
votes
Why the GOP won't deliver on any of their promises (including Roe v. Wade)
@GCR, Ezekiel X:
PredictionRoe vs Wade will not, actually be overturnedThis is a [tactical] leaked draft opinion intended to show the base they 'tried'It would be a 𝒅𝒊𝒔𝒂𝒔𝒕𝒆𝒓 for the GOP to actually overturnThey lose their most salient wedge issue to dangle in front of evangelicals
I don't understand this drive among amateur pundits to assume everything is some super-clever 12D chess move. They've been telling us this is their agenda for decades. They have consolidated power in the key areas to be able to do it and get away with it. So they're doing it. It's all very clear and out in the open what's happened and what's going to happen.
The reason they haven't done it yet because the parties aren't monoliths and there's lots of internal dissent on how to handle things like this. The GOP has effectively purged all the moderates out of it and the lunatics are in charge of the nuthouse. It is not and never was some elaborate, coordinated conspiracy to keep the sheeple in line. They've wanted this for decades. They're about to get it. Nobody can stop them. I know people want to imagine we live in some interesting "House of Cards" world full of drama and intrigue but I'm sorry to say it's all very banal and straightforward.
Because they've been told you have to be really smart in order to be a political strategist or whatever. And they also believe you have to be really smart in order to do what they do. So therefore, nothing can be simple or straightforward. There's always something else that the "average" person isn't seeing and only smart people can see.
This isn't really 12D chess or all that complicated. The real question comes down to how greedy they are vs. how much they really believe what they're promising. My bet is on the GOP being greedy enough to keep abortion an issue so they can keep marketing it to their base.
I don't buy this for a second. Maybe 10 or 15 years ago it would make sense, but the inmates are running the asylum now. The folks in power in the GOP are the true believers that the old-school neocons were dangling abortion in front of to convince. The cynics have lost control of the monster they created.
I don't actually believe that the current crop of GOPoliticians are true believers (although some of them are), I just think they've gotten better at acting to fool their base.
I don't think it matters if they're true believers or not. They're chained to their base which requires them to appear sincere, and if any of their fanatical colleagues perceive them as impeding their efforts they will call them out and jeopardize their support base. If in the end they act the same, it doesn't really make much difference whether they actually believe in the causes they espouse or not.
I agree with you there, but to me as least you can trust a believer, in that they mean what they say.
The overturning of Roe will not be the disaster this person anticipates. The narrative will switch to "We finally did it but as soon as the Dems get enough power they will undo it. Hold strong and help us defend the heroic justices who won us this victory."
As predictions go this is pretty weak. The Supreme Court can still decide however it chooses. It's not bound by some random person's gut feelings about consistency.
I understand that professionals might need to act (or prepare to act) based on uncertain predictions about what will happen, but it seems like most of us have no need to predict the Supreme Court's decisions in advance. So best way to find out is to wait and see what the final decision will be.
Here's the tweet if you don't wanna click:
The tweet comes from a successful political bettor.
But regardless of who made the tweet, I think the point he makes is quite valid. If you look into the incentives of the GOP, there's really only two things they care about: money and power. They get both of these by continuing to get elected, so it isn't worth it for them to deliver of their promises.
GOP can keep pushing the blame for failure on the Dems and the "deep state" while continuing to win elections and lining their own pockets with insider trades and bribes.
I know this isn't a perfect reason for why they won't overturn Roe v. Wade (or anything else they promised) but when you consider the greedy humans behind the GOP, you get a clearer picture of what they actually want out of America.
Or maybe this is all wrong and I am just using this tweet as copium. Regardless, I remain optimistic about our future and America's future.
What do you think?
Point that it would be in the in the financial interest of both parties to keep Roe v. Wade as tenuous precedent so they could both fundraise the hell out of it without that cash flow drying up, but if certain justices have been on a lifelong mission to remove Roe and there's enough of them to throw their weight around, then PR, decorum and strategy doesn't really matter compared to the urge to pick at a fifty year old scab.
For the first time in a couple of days, I have a sliver of hope.
Because you're right. It's like when the "tough on crime" GOP turns the rhetoric up to 11, gets predictably defeated, and throws up their hands and goes "well, we tried!"
We're not talking about politicians though, but judges. They don't need to be reelected every 2/4/6 years to keep their power and wealth, they're set for life.
They still seem to be dancing to their masters' tune, though. And highly likely, have been since their hearings.
IMO the mistake is thinking their "masters" are the Republican politicians in Washington when in actuality their loyalty is to the Federalist Society, of which all the Conservative SC Justices are members. Read about them, their philosophy, goals, and all their past efforts, and I think you might see how this prediction about Roe v Wade only being about securing party funding falls flat. They're true believers, not Republican puppets.
You heard it here first. https://tildes.net/~lgbt/vvo/the_massive_republican_push_to_ban_trans_athletes_explained#comment-6byl
Seems your comment was much better received than this post even though they are fundamentally the same. Only a year apart.