Megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - February 26-27

I live in Brussels, as some people here know. Living here is the European version of living in Washington DC: you're surrounded by people who work in or around politics. Though I imagine Brussels is more varied in that regard.

Anyway, I have a lot of friends in what we locally call "the EU bubble". Brussels is somewhere I found a home because I always considered myself not French but "European".

And here the growing sentiment is that Europe is under attack. It wasn't immediate, partly because of some countries' lackluster government reactions, but now it's becoming much more prevalent. I can attest to it. Ukraine may not be my home, but it is part of it.

And after this week's events, I feel renewed trust in Europe. I don't know if there are Americans around who are willing to give their point of view on this; here, you are told about the EU being the unifying force of good and peace after the second World War. But this was such a long time ago. Most people who fought in it have died of old age, very few can remember it anymore. It feels distant, abstract. Trust in the EU institutions has been faltering, moreso since the UK started talking about Brexit.

We all were expecting the EU to have a mild, disapproving reaction, by fear of upsetting the eastern neighbour. We are so used to the EU being "all talk". I'm very pro-EU but even I didn't think it would go beyond stern words and mild sanctions.

WEAPONS! Holy shit folks, we sent WEAPONS. And not just once! We sent more, and more, and more. And it's just the first days! Look at this, Belgium had sent a bunch of weapons, and it just decided to send more because why not!

I know this is not completely selfless. The EU would much rather have this war happen on Ukrainian soil than further west. And I think we all do, because frankly, we've all seen how incredibly badass Ukrainians are.

Ukraine will prevail. We will win, and we will never forget the day our Ukrainian siblings defended Europe. We will welcome them into the Union. Слава Україні!

I was reading this Twitter thread by a Politico writer born in Ukraine that someone posted on yesterday’s thread. She says that, like Chernobyl raised doubt in the Soviet leadership, this war may do the same for Putin’s regime, and Russians might question what he says a bit more than the state-run news would like them to. I hope she is right, and I hope your family and everyone else over there stays safe.

I know hope and wishes mean little right now, but looking at this from afar it is the least I can do. Stay well.

I am as insulated as any other American about most things outside of the continent, but my impression of Ukraine has never been negative. The internet has made the world a much smaller place and Ukrainian people have made plenty of contact with the rest of the world. I’ve even bought hobby products made in Ukraine before.

Thanks for sharing that article.

Agreed, this seems like it definitely could lead to Putin's end. I hope Russia will get a sane leader like Gorbachev again. It is terrible that so many people will have to pay for it with their lives.

Turkey to implement pact limiting Russian warships to Black Sea

That article is blocked for me so here is another one.

Here's a Twitter thread by the CEO of Flexport about the roles of Ukraine and Russia in the air cargo industry.

The An-124s are more plentiful and also huge--they are the world's largest cargo aircraft besides the 225. Their ability to transport oversized cargo is the reason they've lasted so long despite being much worse in cost and loading times than 747s and similar cargo planes. /6

The main Antonov facility for maintenance and spare parts is in Kyiv, and has at the very least been rendered non operational and likely will be destroyed if it hasn't already. /7

The Antonov fleet is old and requires constant maintenance and replacement of spare parts to keep it aloft. That maintenance has been rendered much more difficult now and spare parts impossible to acquire for the time being. /8

[...]

The destruction / grounding of the world's Antonov fleet will render oversized project cargo shipping by air impossible, imposing major costs and delays on a huge range of industries, most notably the energy sector. /11

[...]

The air cargo industry has been suffering from an extreme lack of capacity since the start of the pandemic because 50% of the world's air freight flies in the belly of passenger planes which have been largely pulled off of long haul international routes. /13

[...]

It's possible that in the coming days we will see severe sanctions placed on Air Bridge and they will no longer be able to land in many countries around the world. They have a fleet of nineteen 747 cargo aircraft that will have an impact on global air freight capacity. /15

[...]

At a time when air capacity is already extremely tight and cargo rates are already 3 times pre-pandemic levels, the removal of the Russian and Ukrainian capacity from the market will lead to further congestion and delays. /17

The loss of overflight abilities in the Russia air space will at the same time will also force all air carriers transiting from Asia to Europe to route around the vast Russian landmass. This will likely mean an extra stop in Dubai or Qatar, adding delays and extra costs. /18

[...]

And the Trans-Siberian railroad is not going to be an attractive alternative for obvious reasons.
@flexport has already ceased accepting bookings on the rail, perhaps permanently. /20

An almost total loss. Here are pictures from the ground.

SpaceX shipment of Starlink satellite-internet dishes arrives in Ukraine, government official says

Ukraine digital minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who tagged Musk in a request on Twitter on Saturday, posted that Starlink was "here" in Ukraine — with a photo showing more than two dozen boxes of the company's user kits in the back of a truck.

Is it useful, though? Maybe not?

Even if Starlink worked perfectly, the use of satellite technology can be risky in wartime, John Scott-Railton, a senior researcher at the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab, told me. Transmissions between ground receivers and satellites can become beacons for air strikes. “None of this is new,” Scott-Railton said. “The only new thing is Starlink, which has never really been tested in a context of battle.”

I wouldn’t expect them to be used in battle. Maybe they would be useful as decoys? It seems like good PR, anyway.

Interesting video.

It makes three key points.

1. Why start the war? Untapped gas reserves in the black sea that is a thread to Russias economic foundation.

2. Why start the war now? Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 giving it sovereignty over most of the untapped reserves, but Ukraine shut off water to Crimea, causing immense toll on the economy.

3. When will the war stop? Russia has already turned on the water to Crimea but may wish to cut Ukraine off from access to the black sea and control all Ukrainian gas reserves.

Honestly, I don't think capturing Ukraine the way it is happening now is going to be worth it at all. Great cost in materiel and personell to the russian military and great cost to Ukraine's infrastructure, nevermind its people. To break even on the damage caused by this war, it's going to take a very long time.

Now, that's not to argue against your point - it could very well be that that's exactly the calculus going on. But then maybe Putin is misjudging the fighting spirit of Ukrainians - which I find a quite credible argument.

Of course, you could argue that exploitation of natural gas resources don't necessitate new russian expenditures to repair most of Ukraine's infrastructure or replace lost military equipment. But with the fight the Ukrainians are putting up and, it seems, will continue to put up, this makes economic exploitation very hard: Military security will likely have to be kept up for years to come, meanwhile you can't rely on local labor for fear of sabotage, and western sanctions will also play their part, as that removes energy customers and hurts the economy more generally. And without restoring (and thus investing in) the infrastructure that gets destroyed in this war at least somewhat, the Ukrainian populace will be very unhappy, necessitating (imo) at least some expenditure there. Which is to say, if this is an economic move, it's likely to be (at least with the way things are going) a at best marginally successful defensive move; that is, Russia can continue to be Europe's major supplier of gas; they do not expand their presence in that market, but they at least don't lose it to a western-aligned nation, stripping them of their privilege entirely. All at great cost to themselves.

Even then, I don't think this will work out well for Putin, the way things are going. If the Ukrainian defense disintegrated the way the Afghan Army did, this would look different.