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Ukraine-Russia war live: Russian troops on high alert amid Wagner attempted coup
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- Authors
- By Josh White, By James Kilner, By Rozina Sabur, By Henry Samuel, By David Millward, By Our Foreign Staff
- Published
- Jun 23 2023
- Word count
- 220 words
So, I am living in Rostov right now, so I hope can provide some grounded perspective.
There are military vehicles and a lot of troops concentrated on the main streets, they generally don't interact with civilians. Roads into the city were closed at night, but as far as I can tell civilian traffic flows more or less freely. There was no shooting, combat or any casualties as far as I everyone I know can tell.
The mood is surprisingly chill, overall. The morning was like any regular Saturday - I went to the local store to get some big water bottles just in case, and the checkout line was long, but people bought regular stuff, no panic, no hoarding. The streets are not that empty.
I've met an old lady living above me when I was returning - her daughter drove to take her out of the city. She told me not to leave home today. It's really surreal, children are playing on the playground under my window, the people are walking around and laughing while guys in military uniform are buying some cheeseburgers in off-shoot McDonalds.
There were some videos of people screaming at Wagner troops, telling them to leave, but overall nobody seems to care there is a civil war going. Crazy stuff.
I hope you and any loved ones stay safe! Bizarre to wake up in a "war zone", event though so far it seems primarily amongst military forces themselves.
Ah, a normal day in Russia. https://streamable.com/20496e
I've always said that even if a meteorite was going to strike Moscow, people would just shrug and go about their business like nothing has happened.
Stay safe, comrade.
Thank you. Any idea if the troops you're seeing are official Russian military or part of the Wagnar group? Can civilians tell?
Can you comment on if the last year has been pretty calm and chill like this too?
BBC Update ten minutes ago:
Voronezh seems to be about half way between you and Moscow, according to the map..
I hadn't seen any Russian military in Rostov today, it's only Wagner. They don't hide, are talking to people and generally just patrol main streets with tanks and other military vehicles nearby. They also don't start any kind of conflict even if screamed/hit. Funnily enough, usually other bystanders force troublemakers to calm down. Some give them snacks/water, shake their hands.
Yeah, for the whole duration of the war there weren't any major incidents.
As far as I can tell Voronezh had some armed conflict with Russian military aviation and completely taken by Wagner. They seem to be close to Moscow, maybe as close as 100km. Main roads leading to Moscow are being dug out to slow them down, but there doesn't seem to be any significant military concentrated to defend the city.
Nah it's less that and more that people seemed to genuinely support Wagner's coup for whatever reasons.
Honestly it's anti-climactic, how it all seemed to end, but at least there wasn't any bloodshed. Thanks.
Back at the beginning of the war it was said that eventually Russian generals will realize that the road to Moscow will be easier than the road to Kyiv. Looks like the first general to figure that out was Prigozhin.
First clash between Wagner and Russian Army
Hm, I would still be shocked if this went anywhere in terms of actually removing Putin from power. It'll certainly be a nuisance to Russia, and damage their aims in Ukraine.
News from the Wagner side, could be true or false or somewhere in between, is that 1/2 the army is ready to go over to Wagner. If it is true, then Putin could be removed from power.
The only thing that makes me slightly hesitant is that if it's real, then it's really an all or nothing gamble for Prigrozhin. If you aim at the king, best not miss, and all. Like if it doesn't pan out, he's about to drink some plutonium in a few months. So if you assume he's a rational actor (which is a bit of an assumption), then there must be something to make him think it's realistic.
He had been on course to lose for a while now - Wagner was depleted after Bakhmut, and then the MoD planned to take over the PMCs and Wagner in particular which would have left him out of power. He then went up an escalation ladder with the MoD, first publicly criticising them, then taking his forces out of Ukraine, then outright refusing their takeover and so he was already on the path to being arrested for treason before this action. So this feels like a last roll of the dice, that enough of the armed forces will defect to or at least not oppose him for him to depose at least Shoigu.
That's interesting. I was wondering how he could reasonably come to the conclusion that this was a gamble worth taking.
If he seriously believes that he half of the Russian military would support him when push cone to shove, whether it is true ot not, would explain why he rolls the dice.
Wagner troops were being forced to sign MoD contracts, which would have removed all of Prigozhin's authority and left him as just another moderately rich Russian. He had the choice between accepting that fate and striking against the MoD now, which explains the timing.
This is just surmising, but Im assuming Wagner pays his forces, gives them better food, etc. Russian forces were likely ready to rebel anyway - haven't there been reports that they are conscripting men straight off the street?
I'm surprised it took this long for something to happen after UA started to take large portions of the country back.
Didn't see anything about this posted, but looks like a coup is happening via Wagner, and was planned 24+ hours ago with Wagner troops telling their family's to watch the news tomorrow (today).
This whole situation is weird
Will be very interesting to see how this plays out. If nothing else, it’s fewer people fighting against Ukraine.
Yeah this is looking important. Will be keeping tabs intermittently.
This would be to be the second, and more notable, implosion this week. The USSR imploded decades ago, and now Russia itself is buckling under the pressure.
now Russia itself is buckling under Putin.
Any livestream or anything out of Russia? there seem to be very little news for how big this sounds.
I've seen a few videos of IFVs and troop transports driving around Moscow, indicating that something is indeed happening, but pretty much everyone, including the Russian milbloggers who would know the most about the situation, is commenting on the lack of video coming out from this supposed coup.
The simplest explanation is that there's a lack of footage because only a few small bits of Wagner joined Prigozhin and they don't want to release footage showing how small their group is. Or they just aren't doing anything worth videoing.
Alternatively, they don't want to provide free intel to the regular Russian Air Force and Army on their location, because they don't want to be killed by air strikes and artillery. So if they don't release any video of themselves, then the only time there will be video is if they seize a Russian city or engage regular Russian soldiers. If they're just marching towards a city and aren't there yet then nobody will be around to make videos of them.
Or maybe its something else. I got baited on that coup in Turkey a while ago, so I'm not believing anything until I see it, but I can't help but hope that this works out for Prigozhin somehow, anything that ends the war in Ukraine is good.
Most of it's on telegram and Twitter. It seems there is a ton of confusion right now. They've turned off the internet for a good chunk of people and seem to be trying to keep this under wraps. The UA ministry of defense has stated they are watching to see what happens.
https://twitter.com/sonicjihad49/status/1672424631112744960?t=EUvc2ukqVcOBNQSxLVZMZg&s=19
Tanks driving through Rostov, supposedly from Wagner. I really should've gotten further into Russian military Telegram so I could know where to look for this stuff without needing it reposted to Twitter
Prigozhin claimes to be in control of all of Rostov military sites, per the Guardian. I'll wait for further confirmation, but Jesus Christ, that was trivial.
This Twitter thread is very interesting. I hope it really turns out to be a day 1 of a civil war in Russia.
I... kinda don't.
I mean yeah, Putin and his higher-ups need to be removed from power. Sure. But keep in mind Prigozhin is no better. Plus, as always, a civil war will be ridden out on the backs of, as the name implies, the civilian population (which already tells you this isn't one, this is an internal military coup) and always comes at a horrible cost to them no matter what.
And sure, maybe Russia as a country should have defenstrated Putin a long long time ago. Granted. But I bet most people in Russia now would rather just lead their lives, not have tanks rolling through the street and be impacted by sanctions, yet Putin has such a tight grip it needs something like a PMC to even challenge it.
That is to say: The top-removing side of this, yay. The bottom-hurting side of this, nay.
As a Polander I might be seen as biased but I think russian people had enough chances to become normal society. At this point I don't care what happens to their country and to them. If their suffering means end of suffering for neighbouring countries like Ukraine then let it be.
As an American whose great-grandparents immigrated from Poland, I sympathize with both of you.
To contextualize my statement, I'll mention that I recently learned that my great-grandfather's entire family (parents and siblings) were brutally murdered by Russians in their home (while my great-grandfather was out on a walk in the woods). My family weren't criminals-- they were innocent civilians. Literally every Polish person I've told this story has said something along the lines of "well yeah-- that's the way Russians are."
The entire country has PTSD from what Russians have done to it in the past. Telling people from Poland to be sympathetic to people from Russia is like telling the family of a murder victim to be sympathetic to the family of the murderer. Like yeah, the murderer's family probably are stuck in kind of a shitty situation and may deserve a little bit of sympathy, but it misses the point. Crimes have victims, and it's important to prioritize the psychological and physical safety of the victims. This means understanding that it might not be reasonable to expect these victims to sympathise with the family of the murderer.
We as Americans, while living in a country that has never been "pro-Russia," also have never lived in a country that is not well protected against foreign threat. We don't know what it's like to fear that another country could come in and attack us and turn our lives upside down. Closest we have in modern history is 9/11 and that's absolutely nothing compared to what vulnerable countries have to face. That was nothing compared to the brutality that Poland has faced from Russia, and yet half of the US turned anyone who even looked remotely similar to any of the terrorists into an outcast. Fortunately some of that specific type of hatred has died down, but the point is that countries react when they are attacked and civilians die, and they don't forget. We will still remember the loss of innocent American lives on 9/11 a hundred years from now, and Poland still remembers the loss of Polish lives at the hands of Russians that happened 75+ years ago and longer (Russians are repeat offenders).
Russia has a long history of attacking its neighbors. It is still attacking its neighbors. It sucks to be a Russian, for sure-- I'll throw them a small drop of sympathy. But in the end, the Ukrainians are getting most of my sympathy reserves.
Prigozhin said yesterday that invading Ukraine was a mistake, that the West posed no threat to Russia, and that the war was manufactured by Shoigu and the MoD, who are evil.
Sure I doubt human rights in Russia will be great under a hypothetical Prigozhin dictatorship, but they weren't great to begin with, and if this stops the war at the cost of making Russia a bit worse internally that's worth it IMO.
And a civil war doesn't necessarily require the population to rise up, it can just be two military groups fighting each other, it's still a civil war regardless. The difference from a coup is a coup is relatively fast and bloodless while a civil war is, well, a war. And we'll have to wait and see how quick and bloody this ends up being
So he wants to become minister of defense or does he want to topple Putin? And there didn't seem to be any shooting reported right? So is it just a protest kind of thing? I guess we have to wait and see what happens.
There’s shooting, helicopters and a transport plane has been shot down. Plenty of videos from Voronezh with gunfire in the background. It’s on and happening.
Shooting started then Wagner troops approached Voronezh. After Putin announced them as traitors Prigozhin basically said they are going full civil war.
Meta: Should this submission, and others on the same topic, be collected in this weeks Ukraine war megathread, or is the coup attempt in Russia it's own thing?
[My comments below are an improvised survey. Never seen this format on tildes before, let's see how it works.]
No, this is it's own topic.
No, a coup in Russia is a very significant world history event.
True. My concern is mostly with keeping information organized. Maybe its own megathread would be more appropriate.
The problem with mega threads is there's not much activity in them and nobody really sees them except for the handful of people who dig through them, except in the immediate aftermath of them being posted. They aren't as much a way to categorize information as a way to say "this topic is being posted too much, stop it". Which kind of makes sense, nobody really cares if a small settlement with a population of 20 was captured or liberated in eastern Ukraine.
But I think an event this significant doesn't deserve to be buried in one
Huh. I gotta say, I disagree. During Covid and the Ukraine invasion, megathreads have been good at keeping discussions going, rather than burying them. People can post even minor updates on the situation, and it keeps all the info close to another so everyone's working with the same facts.
That said, on reddit I've seen the contrary situation, where a megathread will just disappear from your feed. On tildes, that hasn't been the case for me for the most time. Though recently with the increased activity on tildes, they do sometimes fall of the front page.
I think this is where a topic megathread label with similar rank modifiers as the exemplary post label would be helpful.
Yes, into the megathread.
It is enough its own thing to consider separately, particularly since it is happening within Russia's borders between and among Russians.
Tomorrow is going to be a good day to be in the window-replacement business in Moscow…
Rostov is really far away from Moscow, it may take days before they arrive. Ultimately, I doubt they will still exist as a fighting force by the time they might have otherwise arrived.
Swan Lake is about to run on TV again...
Does anyone know what production of Swan Lake will be shown this time?