Not a fan of seeing WWIII beginning. I know this is probably just my 9/11 trauma speaking, but god this sounds like Saddam's WMDs all over again.
Not a fan of seeing WWIII beginning.
On Monday, the UN's chemical watchdog warns authorities in Syria to ensure that suspected stockpiles of chemical weapons are safe.
It is not known where or how many chemical weapons Syria has, but it's believed former President Assad kept stockpiles
I know this is probably just my 9/11 trauma speaking, but god this sounds like Saddam's WMDs all over again.
I want to believe that it's going to be a lot harder to manufacture consent for another invasion, given that it's now common knowledge how much lying and manipulation took place to do it in 2003....
I want to believe that it's going to be a lot harder to manufacture consent for another invasion, given that it's now common knowledge how much lying and manipulation took place to do it in 2003. Unfortunately considering that Donald Trump was just re-elected I think that's putting way too much faith in the American people.
I don’t think anyone particularly cares this time around. No major powers, and certainly not the US, have much strategic interest in Syria. Maybe Israel will take the opportunity to take a chomp...
I don’t think anyone particularly cares this time around. No major powers, and certainly not the US, have much strategic interest in Syria. Maybe Israel will take the opportunity to take a chomp at some of the border but that’s just usual Middle East stuff.
While the world doesn't care about Syria, they do care about Israel getting larger. I just see this as another piece of the chess game which is unfolding. We see Russia attempting in Ukraine,...
While the world doesn't care about Syria, they do care about Israel getting larger. I just see this as another piece of the chess game which is unfolding. We see Russia attempting in Ukraine, Israel leveraging instability to expand into Syria. It's the two opening moves between The West and The Rest.
Israel might already be doing that actually: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_invasion_of_Syria I say "might" because it isn't clear whether they intend to keep the new territories...
Maybe Israel will take the opportunity to take a chomp at some of the border
I say "might" because it isn't clear whether they intend to keep the new territories they've captured, like they have with the Golan Heights, or if they'll withdraw at some point.
That’s what I meant. IMO if the new Syrian regime chills out I’d lean towards Israel returning it. They don’t particularly have a reason to hold it long term.
That’s what I meant. IMO if the new Syrian regime chills out I’d lean towards Israel returning it. They don’t particularly have a reason to hold it long term.
I really don't see how this has any particular risk of starting WW3, it's very much a regional conflict. Sure, it'll suck for everyone in the Middle East, but I don't see how it is at risk of...
I really don't see how this has any particular risk of starting WW3, it's very much a regional conflict. Sure, it'll suck for everyone in the Middle East, but I don't see how it is at risk of growing out of proportion:
Russia already lost it's ally Assad and is preoccupied with Ukraine anyway
Israel has lost a lot of goodwill with the US (and the rest of NATO) and Trump will be coming to power soon, so I doubt the West will be overly keen to help them
China has, as far as I know, no political, strategic or economic reason to become involved
the world has been lessening it's dependence on oil from the Middle East (and oil/gas in general) and the whole situation with the Houthis has led to a whole bunch of marine traffic avoiding having to go through the Suez Canal
So even if shit hits the fan and the whole region goes up in flames, I don't see any major powers ending up on opposing sides.
If you want to worry about WW3, look at the South China Sea, Taiwan, or Ukraine, not the Middle East.
Yeah people keep bringing up “something something US oil haha” but the US solved its oil import dependency a while ago. Turns out what we really had to invade wasn’t the deserts of the Middle...
Yeah people keep bringing up “something something US oil haha” but the US solved its oil import dependency a while ago. Turns out what we really had to invade wasn’t the deserts of the Middle East, but Texas. With compressed water.
Anyhow, the US is the world’s largest oil producer by volume now.
It's worth noting that the petrodollar supports the dollar's position as the world reserve currency, which would be potentially threatened if the security arrangement shifted such that the gulf...
It's worth noting that the petrodollar supports the dollar's position as the world reserve currency, which would be potentially threatened if the security arrangement shifted such that the gulf states were no longer dependent on the US.
US oil imports are an important part of the explanation for how the US dollar became so widely used (along with the US being a safe place to invest), but the US imports a lot of other things, too....
US oil imports are an important part of the explanation for how the US dollar became so widely used (along with the US being a safe place to invest), but the US imports a lot of other things, too. For example, trade with the US is how Japan and later China ended up with large US investments, and they don't export oil.
The US has a lot of trading partners and has run a trade deficit for a long time. Trade deficits and foreign investment are two sides of the same coin and I don't see it changing much.
Although any given investor could divest from the US using foreign exchange, effectively selling their dollars to someone else, for the system as a whole, the only way to divest is to buy US products and services. That is, US exports would have to increase a lot (or imports decrease a lot) and the US would need to run a trade surplus.
If investors were to panic-sell (like has happened with smaller countries) that would result in the dollar plunging, US imports becoming very expensive and exports very competitive. But causing that kind of a panic would be quite hard. When times are bad, foreign investors tend to increase US investments because it's considered safer than alternatives.
And it isn't in anyone's interest. When large investors sell too fast means they don't get a good price, and there usually isn't a reason to hurry. For large, liquid investments, the best way to sell is quietly and gradually.
Also, sometimes these investments aren't very liquid. For example, foreign auto makers own a lot of factories in the US. There aren't many buyers for a car factory. They make money by selling cars.
There's a reason every oil producer that hints at trading without USD gets 'liberated' pretty quickly. Yes, I know they actually abandoned in September 2017, after the protests, but that was after...
Yes, I know they actually abandoned in September 2017, after the protests, but that was after 14ish years of threatening it...and the democratic defeat of the US-friendly opposition.
Not a fan of seeing WWIII beginning.
I know this is probably just my 9/11 trauma speaking, but god this sounds like Saddam's WMDs all over again.
Assad 100% had chemical weapons. He has used them both on the rebels and on his own civilians.
I don't doubt that. The question is if those stockpiles are large enough to justify an Operation Freedom.
I want to believe that it's going to be a lot harder to manufacture consent for another invasion, given that it's now common knowledge how much lying and manipulation took place to do it in 2003. Unfortunately considering that Donald Trump was just re-elected I think that's putting way too much faith in the American people.
I don’t think anyone particularly cares this time around. No major powers, and certainly not the US, have much strategic interest in Syria. Maybe Israel will take the opportunity to take a chomp at some of the border but that’s just usual Middle East stuff.
While the world doesn't care about Syria, they do care about Israel getting larger. I just see this as another piece of the chess game which is unfolding. We see Russia attempting in Ukraine, Israel leveraging instability to expand into Syria. It's the two opening moves between The West and The Rest.
Israel might already be doing that actually:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_invasion_of_Syria
I say "might" because it isn't clear whether they intend to keep the new territories they've captured, like they have with the Golan Heights, or if they'll withdraw at some point.
That’s what I meant. IMO if the new Syrian regime chills out I’d lean towards Israel returning it. They don’t particularly have a reason to hold it long term.
I really don't see how this has any particular risk of starting WW3, it's very much a regional conflict. Sure, it'll suck for everyone in the Middle East, but I don't see how it is at risk of growing out of proportion:
So even if shit hits the fan and the whole region goes up in flames, I don't see any major powers ending up on opposing sides.
If you want to worry about WW3, look at the South China Sea, Taiwan, or Ukraine, not the Middle East.
Yeah people keep bringing up “something something US oil haha” but the US solved its oil import dependency a while ago. Turns out what we really had to invade wasn’t the deserts of the Middle East, but Texas. With compressed water.
Anyhow, the US is the world’s largest oil producer by volume now.
It's worth noting that the petrodollar supports the dollar's position as the world reserve currency, which would be potentially threatened if the security arrangement shifted such that the gulf states were no longer dependent on the US.
US oil imports are an important part of the explanation for how the US dollar became so widely used (along with the US being a safe place to invest), but the US imports a lot of other things, too. For example, trade with the US is how Japan and later China ended up with large US investments, and they don't export oil.
The US has a lot of trading partners and has run a trade deficit for a long time. Trade deficits and foreign investment are two sides of the same coin and I don't see it changing much.
Although any given investor could divest from the US using foreign exchange, effectively selling their dollars to someone else, for the system as a whole, the only way to divest is to buy US products and services. That is, US exports would have to increase a lot (or imports decrease a lot) and the US would need to run a trade surplus.
If investors were to panic-sell (like has happened with smaller countries) that would result in the dollar plunging, US imports becoming very expensive and exports very competitive. But causing that kind of a panic would be quite hard. When times are bad, foreign investors tend to increase US investments because it's considered safer than alternatives.
And it isn't in anyone's interest. When large investors sell too fast means they don't get a good price, and there usually isn't a reason to hurry. For large, liquid investments, the best way to sell is quietly and gradually.
Also, sometimes these investments aren't very liquid. For example, foreign auto makers own a lot of factories in the US. There aren't many buyers for a car factory. They make money by selling cars.
There's a reason every oil producer that hints at trading without USD gets 'liberated' pretty quickly.
Yes, I know they actually abandoned in September 2017, after the protests, but that was after 14ish years of threatening it...and the democratic defeat of the US-friendly opposition.