There have been a few interesting bits of news here and there over the holiday period as well as notable developments, along with the usual political squabbling, that people might be interesting in skimming or catching up on. These posts are grouped by topic and in reverse chronological order (except the pledges of support section that reads better chronologically) as best as possible (mods feel free to edit the post itself if needed).

Also, just today there is news that Finland seizes Russia-linked tanker suspected of cutting vital undersea cables (please take discussion to the Tildes thread) and now Sweden's Social Democrats want to activate NATO's Article 4 after the cable sabotage in the Baltic Sea.

(Thank you to @KapteinB, @cffabro, @skybrian, and the other people who have helped post many of these links and alternative sources!)

December 2024:

Russia and Ukraine swap at least 300 prisoners in exchange deal

Russia suffered 421,000 casualties in 2024, 'highest price' since start of invasion, Syrskyi says and allegedly ~785,000 Russian troops since the beginning of the invasion in February of 2022.

Injured North Korean soldier captured by Ukraine has died, says South Korea

‘I thought it was fake news’: secrecy around North Koreans fighting in Kursk

“We were told in the morning to prepare for a special type of patient,” said one of the medical staff at the hospital who treated North Koreans.

“We’d heard rumours that North Koreans were fighting there, but I didn’t believe it. No one had actually seen them before,” the medic said.

More than 1,000 North Korean military casualties in Ukraine war, says South Korea

Ukraine faces difficult decisions over acute shortage of frontline troops - "Depleted army is increasingly made up of older men, but Zelenskyy is reluctant to lower mobilisation age from 25"

Kyiv reveals total Ukraine casualties in Putin’s war for first time - "Zelenskyy said 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 370,000 wounded. That compares with 600,000 dead and wounded reported for Russia."

In December, Perun released a video which quotes material about Ukraine's intelligence support of Syrian opposition forces that I hadn't heard before. At the 49:00 mark he says that Ukraine provided essential information (and basics) to Syrian rebel forces on drone usage, 3D printer schematics, and release mechanisms. Here's an imgur link to the report's summary that was posted to X/Twitter.

Pledges of support:

In June it was announced that the Annual allied military aid, [to that point, would be] $60 billion for next four years

In July 39 tanks, HIMARS and ammunition: Germany covertly hands over huge shipment of weapons to Ukraine

In late December the Biden administration pledges additional military aid to Ukraine amid Russia war - "... extensive support including a planned delivery of hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, thousands of rockets and hundreds of armored vehicles by mid-January."

Interesting articles and information from 2024:

‘The forest will survive’: the volunteers saving Kharkiv's war-charred woodland

In September, Ukraine strikes two Russian munition depots, says military. This comes after numerous drone strikes on Russian oil facilities in August, July, and January.

‘I can do the same job as a man’: Ukraine’s first frontline female commander on war, grief – and her hope for the future - If you only read one article on this page it should be this one. This is a great interview and the person who took that portrait photo knew exactly what they were doing. I want her portrait to be painted and hung in the Louvre!

Revealed: Russia anticipated [August] Kursk incursion months in advance, seized papers show - As well, Ukraine's Kursk Offensive, launched in August and still holding their ground, has an entire wiki page.

A night with the drone squad targeting Russian forces in micro battles

Kyiv's drone suppliers are ramping up production of computer-guided drones that are cheap and can't be electronically jammed

Frontline report: Ukraine ignites Russian strategic bases, flames span from Crimea to Urals

New Yorker magazine interview: The Ukrainian President on how to end the war with Russia, the empty rhetoric of Vladimir Putin, and what the U.S. election could mean for the fate of his country

Interview with Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi: ‘I know we will win – and how’: Ukraine’s top general on turning the tables against Russia

Reuters interview excerpts: Ukraine President Zelenskiy speaks to Reuters in exclusive interview

Oleh Sentsov, Ukrainian director turns accidental footage into a film

In his home near Ukraine's front line with Russia, Yurii makes a stand

Putin's Unsustainable Spending Spree: How the War in Ukraine Will Overheat the Russian Economy

Valerii Zaluzhnyi: top Ukraine general who rivals president for popularity: Volodymyr Zelenskiy seems ready to risk firing his armed forces chief in a deepening rift that has shone a light on Kyiv’s frailties

Previous megathreads:

I'll update this more in a little while.

Mid-year 2024 updates and news megathread that covered developments such as announcements of North Korea providing materiel and manpower, changes in NATO leadership, the sacking of several Russian defense ministers, Eastern European security pacts, and changes to Ukrainian defense leadership.

February 2024 megathread that covers Ukraine's withdrawal from Avdiivka, the shooting down of more than one Russian A-50 AWACS, trade sanctions, and some articles about drone swarming tech.

To find more posts about these topics, use the 2022 russian invasion of ukraine tag.

Please also see @KapteinB's recent post about Ukraine says missile strike destroyed kamikaze drones and Iranian instructors.

I wanted to touch on a few pieces of news and media that people might not have seen this month.

Yesterday, Pyongyang Says It Will Send Troops to Ukraine Within a Month - A military engineering unit will be sent to the Donetsk region to support Russian forces. While there are many foreigners who have intentionally and unintentionally signed up in a combat capacity that supports Russia, North Korea is taking a somewhat different stance here by overtly doing the thing that the west has been reluctant to admit doing themselves (sending advisors and other personnel to front-line adjacent regions).

There is a film coming out called 'Real' which is 90 minutes of unedited front-line footage accidentally recorded by a film-maker. Hopefully this doesn't just cater to the raw "combat footage" people, but also people who are into biopics/documentaries/war journalism/etc.

Sentsov, who spent several years as a political prisoner in Russia and is now fighting in the Ukrainian army, found the 90 minutes of shaky footage six months after the battle. He was going through old files on his GoPro camera and realised it had been switched on that day. ... I realised I had a very interesting imprint of that battle and of war how it truly is – ugly, incomprehensible, twisted and stupid."

Outgoing Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte will be the next head of NATO. The Dutch have been very strong supporters of Ukraine, so this bodes well for further support from a leadership role and might also benefit the relationship between Baltic states and northern Europe. Dutch F-16s and ammunition, along with donations from Belgium and Norway, should be arriving in Ukraine this summer for real this time. They've already made numerous deliveries of F-16s to Romania and other places where Ukrainian pilots are being trained. At the same time, the EU has opened accession talks to Ukraine and Moldova, which may allow for more support to be extended to the countries.

Last month, Russia replaced Shoigu as Defense Minister, which I thought had a Tildes discussion somewhere. Last week Putin sacked deputy defense ministers Nikolai Pankov, Ruslan Tsalikov, Tatiana Shevtsova and Pavel Popov. He then appointed replacement deputy defense ministers, including one relative.

Also of note, Ukraine is confirming that last month they destroyed the last Russian Kalibr missile carrier (ship) using Crimea as its port, with the rest having been removed from Crimea. But this was not the last ship, nor necessarily the last missile carrier, in the Black Sea as a whole. It does suggest that Russia's ability to launch deep missile attacks has been pushed back further, and right at a time when Ukraine has been able to position several MLRS within range of Crimea to hit the targets mentioned by KapteinB's post at the very top of this page.

Other Recent Headlines:

Ukraine signs security pacts with EU, Lithuania and Estonia - 27 June.

In his home near Ukraine's front line with Russia, Yurii makes a stand - A feature article/photo essay.

90 Russian prisoners returned in swap with Ukraine - 26 June.

US and Russian defence chiefs speak amid recent rise in tensions (over Ukraine)

Zelenskiy replaces commander leading war on Russia in eastern Ukraine

‘This country gave me a lot’: the Vietnamese people staying in Ukraine - I found this to be very interesting. These folks really have a lot of pride in their homeland/adopted homeland to fight for it. It's quite heartwarming in that way.

Key global powers fail to sign up to Ukraine peace summit communique - Spoiler, it's basically BRICS countries again.

Over the past couple of weeks Brandon Mitchell has posted a few videos about their crowd-funded offensive drones in the Kupyansk Front direction. I really appreciate what he's been doing in every capacity that he's supported efforts out there (initially in a non-combat role, etc.).

There hasn't been a megathread for a while so I wanted to post the latest news as well as a couple other pieces of news from the past week along with a couple articles providing additional context.

The latest piece of news is Ukrainian forces withdraw from Avdiivka to avoid encirclement, army chief says. This is very concerning and I hope encourages people to continue urging their politicians to find ways of supporting Ukraine in a larger capacity than they have in recent months.

The other day there was also this article titled Rate of Russian military production worries Europe's war planners. If you don't have time to listen to Perun's hour-long PowerPoint from 4 months ago on the same subject (Russian Defence Production 2023 - Can Russia keep up with equipment attrition in Ukraine?), then The Guardian article is a decent primer.

It also links to a Foreign Affairs article published in January of 2024 going into more detail about Russia's economic expenditures and its uneven footing: Putin’s Unsustainable Spending Spree: How the War in Ukraine Will Overheat the Russian Economy (Archive.is link). This is a particularly interesting article as it details the expenses as a percent of GDP that have recently made the rounds in the news this week, as well as how military spending as spurred growth in some industries, while others also tangentially related are lagging behind despite the government's stimulus. Additionally, Russia is spending the equivalent of billions of dollars on annexed regions of Ukraine. It then details the consequences of this substantially increased spending and increased wages that may be dislocating the civilian economy in favor of maintaining enough supplies for a further extended attritional war.

The Guardian article say that:

New analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) estimates that Russia has lost 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles in the last year and close to 8,800 since the war began.
Unable to produce anywhere near that number of vehicles, Russia has mainly refurbished ageing hardware ...
Russian factories claimed to have delivered 1,500 main battle tanks this year, of which 1,180 to 1,280 had been reactivated from storage, according to IISS. Those numbers, along with reactivated armoured personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, meant Russia would “be able to sustain its assault on Ukraine at current attrition rates for another two to three years, and maybe even longer”, the group said.

For reference, the landing ship that was recently destroyed by Ukrainian Unmanned Surface Vessels (Magura V5 sea drones), Caesar Kunikov, could carry 10 main battle tanks and 340 troops or 12 armored personnel carriers and 340 troops. Though it's not clear what role that ship was playing, as trains play a significant role in deploying men and materiel to the frontlines.

Finally, an article I'd meant to post several months ago to just sort of talk about in general terms: What would happen if Russia invaded Finland? I went to a giant war game in London to find out. Has anyone ever participated in war gaming, have a background or took a class on game theory, or enjoyed the history of tabletop gaming that dates back to this war-time activity? Just interested in what people have to say.

This thread is posted weekly on Thursday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.